Idiot's questions concerning Iraq:

[KevinthePRF]

I can't quite remember a time I have been as politically confused at this point in time in my history. I have some questions I just don't understand maybe some more informed can help me with:

1. Why hasn't this "war" started yet?

I can't quite remember a buildup that has gone on this long since George Lucas' The Phantom Menace. What are we waiting for? We either have evidence we should make Iraq a parking lot or we don't. What's the holdup?

2. Are we going to finish the job this time?

I.E. assassinate Sadam and his even more sadistic siblings featured on 20/20 with Barbara Walters. I'm all for killing in the name of peace. But are we just going to bomb some buildings and 12 years from now be babbling how we must attack Iraq yet again because Sadam's son has some kick *** bio bombs he's hiding in a grain factory from UN inspectors. If our Middle East military manhunt for Osama is any indicator, I'm worried.

3. Is Iraq really reaching in my pocket?

At the pump that is. As far as what I've read, we get zero oil from Iraq. Then why am I dishing out $1.70 at the pump for regular unleaded? And is this "war" going to help me there or am I going to be humming "Proud to be an American" as I spend $40 bucks to top off my Camry every two weeks when were done bombing.

[The Evil Genius]

Regarding question 3 (since 1 and 2 are truly unanswerable)

The US as of late last year, I believe, was importing 60%+ of its oil from Iraq.

This percentage has gone done drastically, but the US imports of oil from Iraq were once again on the upswing due to oil strikes in South America.

[Tarhog]

Kev, I'll take on question's 1 & 2 (#3 I have no insight into):

1) The War has already started. We have recon units in Iraq, are bombing key anti-air assets, and are conducting psy-ops and intelligence gathering there. The hold-up is only a political one, because we decided early on that we had to at least appear to be pursuing a multilateral solution. We are FULLY prepared to go it 'alone' with our true allies, but politically, it will be easier if the UN is forced to acquiesce and (at least in spirit) go along with us. The shooting war is no more than 60 days away and probably closer to 30 days away. We have also delayed because an incredible amount of military and support assets have to be in place to launch a massive campaign (just ensuring we have enough cruise missiles and advanced munitions available has taken over a year).

2) Yes. We'll not be done until Saddam and his band of thugs and sympathizers is dead or expelled. Count on it. The supposed 'failure' to do this in the first Gulf War is misleading. We had UN backing and followed the UN mandate for action. We should be applauded for our restraint the first time around, no matter how questionable it might seem now (remember that had the UN had the gumption to hold up its end of the bargain via inspections and enforcement, Iraq would be disarmed as we speak). The situation is not analagous to the hunt for Bin Laden. Whether we kill Hussein or even find him, if he is rousted from power, and we find and destroy his stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, we will have succeeded. The goal is not stringing up Hussein (although it would be a nice photo-op), its the dismantlement of Iraq's ability to utilize WMD's or supply them to others who wish us ill.

[redman]

I'll give my best (brief) shot at these questions:

Originally posted by KevinthePRF

1. Why hasn't this "war" started yet?

I can't quite remember a buildup that has gone on this long since George Lucas' The Phantom Menace. What are we waiting for? We either have evidence we should make Iraq a parking lot or we don't. What's the holdup?

A couple of things. First, we're still deploying forces there that we'd really prefer to have in place before we act. By most estimates, everything will be in place by the end of the month.

EDIT- Tarhog's right, BTW. There are spooks and special ops guys on the ground laying the groundwork for an invasion. I'm less familiar with actual sabotage or other destructive things they're doing now, but they're certainly there. We've evidently redirected a large proportion of these guys to Iraq where they are operating right now.

Second, on a broader level we're trying to cover our diplomatic bases as much as possible. We already have 50+ countries who are on board with us in various ways. We'd also like the UN to be officially with us, and that's especially important for Tony Blair whose nation according to polls is more opposed to war than ours is. We're also building support over time among Americans, as we don't want to lose the political will for this at home if/when the going gets tough for whatever reason.

Originally posted by KevinthePRF

2. Are we going to finish the job this time?

I.E. assassinate Sadam and his even more sadistic siblings featured on 20/20 with Barbara Walters. I'm all for killing in the name of peace. But are we just going to bomb some buildings and 12 years from now be babbling how we must attack Iraq yet again because Sadam's son has some kick *** bio bombs he's hiding in a grain factory from UN inspectors. If our Middle East military manhunt for Osama is any indicator, I'm worried.

The short answer is that Saddam and his regime will be gone from power. Whether that literally means that we actually kill him, or that he simply disappears is hard to say. I'd point out, however, that unlike Osama, Saddam's only power base and security exist in Iraq, and only amongst a small minority of that population. Whether he goes to another country in exile or flees there, he knows that he's a hated man who will be killed, it's only a matter of time.

Originally posted by KevinthePRF

3. Is Iraq really reaching in my pocket?

At the pump that is. As far as what I've read, we get zero oil from Iraq. Then why am I dishing out $1.70 at the pump for regular unleaded? And is this "war" going to help me there or am I going to be humming "Proud to be an American" as I spend $40 bucks to top off my Camry every two weeks when were done bombing.

No. According to the Auto Club just last week, this is price gouging pure and simple. The oil supplies, at least for the present, are safe. Plus, we have a huge, untapped strategic oil reserve that is there if we need it.

[EagleSteve]

Originally posted by The Evil Genius

Regarding question 3 (since 1 and 2 are truly unanswerable)

The US as of late last year, I believe, was importing 60%+ of its oil from Iraq.

This percentage has gone done drastically, but the US imports of oil from Iraq were once again on the upswing due to oil strikes in South America.

EG,

We get some oil from Iraq. Our key foreign suppliers are Saudi Arabia and Canada. Europe (France) are the main buyers of Iraqi oil. The Venezualean strikes are a huge of a factor, but there is no way we'd buy much more from Iraq at this time when other suppliers are making up the difference.

Here's a link for the Top 10 US importers:

http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw246.shtml

[redman]

Yeah, TEG, I want to see a source for that assertion.

Besides, I thought you were saying that we were going to war for Iraqi oil, but now you're saying we're already getting bunches of it? Get your story straight!

[EagleSteve]

Redman,

Here's the link:

http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw246.shtml

[redman]

Thanks, B21. I guess that shoots down the 60% figure.

Care to explain that one, TEG?

[The Evil Genius]

Originally posted by redman

Yeah, TEG, I want to see a source for that assertion.

Besides, I thought you were saying that we were going to war for Iraqi oil, but now you're saying we're already getting bunches of it? Get your story straight!

I goofed, misread the article - it said Iraq exported 69% of its own oil to the US as of last year.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,777784,00.html

As for the other part - I think you have me mistaken for someone else.

edit - are you referring to this post? you do see the just kidding part right?

http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=212036#post212036

[The Evil Genius]

Here is what I read...

"Iraq exported 69% of its oil to the US a year ago, but the figure has dropped to only 16% since the end of May, according to press reports in the US. Iraqi oil exports have halved overall, dropping from around an average of 2m barrels a day last year to just short of 1m barrels at the end of May."

Here is what I thought it said...

The US was importing 69% of its oil from Iraq, blah blah blah.

Here is what it really said...

69% of Iraq's oil was going to the US, but has gone down in the past year, blah blah blah.

[The Evil Genius]

Here is an article I did find though that I posted a way back...

Guess who's helping United States fill oil supply gap? Iraq

Wed Jan 15, 5:08 PM ET

By MASOOD FARIVAR, Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK - Under sanctions and an erratic leader, Iraq has hardly been a reliable global oil supplier.

But in an odd twist, the United States has grown increasingly reliant on Iraqi oil exports to replace supplies cut off by a seven-week-old strike in Venezuela — even as the Bush Administration steps up preparations for a possible invasion — raising further concerns about the impact a U.S. attack would have on the oil market.

"The United States gets several hundred thousand barrels a day of crude oil from Iraq," said John Lichtblau, chairman of PIRA Energy in New York. "That's not insignificant."

Unpublished, preliminary government data indicate exports of Iraqi oil to the United States have been rising in recent weeks. Since the Dec. 2 start of the labor strike in Venezuela, Iraq's crude oil exports to the United States have averaged more than 500,000 barrels a day, nearly double the volume reported during the September-November period, the data show.

Last week, Iraqi oil exports to the United States jumped to 830,000 barrels a day, their highest level since early last year and nearly 10 percent of total U.S. imports that week, according to an Energy Department analyst.

While Iraq's exports remain below levels seen in 2001 and early 2002, the recent surge, including the shipments to the United States, is making a difference, analysts said.

The surge in Iraqi shipments helped boost total crude oil imports into the United States by 200,000 barrels a day last week to 8.5 million barrels a day.

"That's probably in reaction to the loss of Venezuelan exports," said Aaron Brady, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "You need to make it up somehow. Iraqi oil is doing its share filing in that gap."

Iraqi oil exports have been erratic since the start of the United Nations (news - web sites) oil-for-food program six years ago. The program allows Iraq to sell as much oil as it likes provided revenue go into a U.N. account and are used mostly for humanitarian purposes.

After topping 1 million barrels a day in January and February of last year, Iraqi oil exports to the United States nose-dived. The decline came in response to the onerous conditions of a new U.N. pricing policy imposed to frustrate Baghdad's efforts to collect an illegal surcharge from traders.

Iraq compounded the problem by cutting off its exports in April in an ill-fated effort to spark a broad oil embargo in support of the Palestinians.

For much of last year, Iraqi exports averaged less than 1 million barrels a day, with less than half coming to the United States.

Faced with a sharp loss of revenue and U.S. threats of military action, Iraq quietly dropped the surcharge demand in September. Some analysts saw the move as an attempt to build commercial ties as a bulwark against a U.S. attack.

Whatever the motive, the change prompted major international oil companies to return to the Iraqi market for the first time in nearly two years, according to industry analysts and U.N. diplomats.

The result has been a clear rise in Iraq's oil exports, according to U.N. figures. Since the start of September, Iraqi exports have averaged about 1.5 million barrels a day, the figures show.

Iraq typically ships between 40 percent and 50 percent of its oil exports to the U.S. market. But even if more oil goes to Europe, in a global market it makes little difference, Brady said.

"It frees up other oil to be sent to the United States," Brady said. "It's helping right now."

With Iraqi oil exports rising and Venezuelan oil largely off the market, analysts are increasingly concerned about the prospect of losing both producers at the same time.

Those concerns have driven oil prices up over $33 a barrel to two-year highs in New York. Prices are now 75 percent higher than they were a year ago.

To help offset the loss of Venezuelan oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Sunday to hike production by 1.5 million barrels a day beginning Feb. 1.

Iraq, an OPEC (news - web sites) member, wasn't part of the agreement, because its exports are controlled by the U.N.

OPEC officials said they will hike production again if Iraqi oil supplies are disrupted by a war.

The Bush administration has so far resisted pressure to release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter the Venezuelan supply shortfall. Observers believe the administration wants to have the option of tapping the reserve if there is a war with Iraq.

[Storm]

hey blazer I like the graphs, talk about backing up your argument with facts and figures.

as far as the prices as the pump go its definetly just price gouging from the oil companies, most of the oil that you pump today was actually bought six months ago.

[redman]

OK, 69% of their oil exports have been coming here. That's a far different statement, and no surprise given the UN-sponsored oil-for-food program that we've all known about. What's of course not tabulated are the amounts of under-the-table black market sales to countries like France.

Also, what's interesting in your links, TEG, is the indication that Iraqi oil exports have dropped in the last year. Have the ****roaches who have been buying from them gone scurrying away as the light of U.S. attention has been turned on during that same timeframe?

[The Evil Genius]

Originally posted by redman

Also, what's interesting in your links, TEG, is the indication that Iraqi oil exports have dropped in the last year. Have the ****roaches who have been buying from them gone scurrying away as the light of U.S. attention has been turned on during that same timeframe?

Thats what it looks like my friend. Lets hope the trend continues.

[Riggo-toni]

What I'd like to know, and what is inexplicably omitted from this article, is how much of that oil is coming from the Kurdish safe-havens in the north. Do we really have any restrictions on what they sell us? I remember seeing somewhere that the Kurds are actually helping Saddam sell oil and circumvent the oil for food program by buying oil at a cut rate from Saddam's guys, and then re-selling it themselves on the open market.

[redman]

Originally posted by riggo-toni

nevermind

No, really, what were you going to say?

[fansince62]

gotta admit...embarking on a tangent somewhat....I have to agree with the more liberally minded on this board in expressing some pent-up frustration/anger that we are in the same predictament now that we were in the early 70s when I served gas to autos waiting in lines miles long........somewhere along the line whether it is detroit, washington or each consumer's household....there has been a major foul-up in policy......

[Kilmer17]

The difference is that in the 70s we were getting almost 95% of our oil from OPEC. If the sh1t hits the fan this time, there are PLENTY of countries BEGGING to sell us oil in place of OPEC.

OF course there's always ANWAR.

[EagleSteve]

Another thing to consider is the fact that OPEC needs us as much as we need them. I don't think an embargo is realistic. The kings and princes of Saudi Arabia desperately need the income from the US. A long embargo could easily cause them to fall from power. This is aided by the fact that our oil imports from OPEC have taken a general downward trend.

If we do move to another energy source in 10-20 years, the Middle East may explode, as the primary source of their income and power in the world will be reduced. Can't happen soon enough.