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How we beat Philly, and the ONE way we could lose...


kleese

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First of all, let me say this: Dallas isn't losing to St. Louis. No chance. So this truly is a MUST win game for us. It would have been nice if Carolina could have clinched it for us last week, but it is what it is-- all in all, I would have taken this scenerio before the year in a heartbeat.

I am confident this week, but obviously concerned because anything can happen in one game in the NFL-- especially on the road. But here's how we win this game, and the one way we can lose it.

-- Do NOT worry about our emotional state. Nol chance we lose this game because we aren't "up" for it. No chance we waltz in overconfident. I believe the players have a swagger right now and believe they will win, but I do not think they believe they CAN'T lose to this Eagles team. We will be ready for this game, no doubt about it.

-- The Eagles are a different story. And the current state of things in Philly leads me to my point of how there is ONE way we lose this game:

GIVE THEM LIFE EARLY.

Obviously, the Eagles are done this year, and have been for weeks. Yet, they've played pretty hard during this stretch and we should expect a good effort from the few players they have remaining. In a game like this, the opponent usually comes out fired up-- they know they have a chance to make one last mark on the season and hurt a rival, so they put all of their eggs into one basket and give it one last go for the season. Same thing for the fans-- they will probably be energized at the start of the game.

However, if things don't go their way early-- say they get down 7-0 quickly-- their thoughts almost immediately shift to next year-- the draft, the off-season, etc.... the fans lose interest and may even begin secretly rooting for a loss to improve draft position. At that point, the Redskins can pounce and turn it into a blowout.

But if the Eagles get up early, they start to get a little confidence and the fans stay in the game and on their side. They figure they might as well try and close it out. That's when you have a dogfight on your hands.

So I expect a good effort and solid game plan initially from the Eagles. We need to survive the first quarter. If we take a lead early, I'll feel extremely confident that we're going to hold onto it.

That's why the start of this game is essential-- more so than most weeks. If we turn it over, or give up a big play, it sets the tone for Philly and keeps them interested and motivated. But if we can squash their plan early, they will begin to wander into 2006.

I am very confident that the defense will shut them down. McMahon can move a little bit and I respect Reid enough to believe they can grind out some first downs and put a few points on the board, but there is no way the Eagles win this game because their offense is shredding our defense.

What makes me nervous is our offense coming out tight. If we get the jitters a bit, it could mean mistakes, or three and outs. We've seen a few times this year where the offense struggles early and has a hard time getting on track all game-- this happened as recently as our last road game at Arizona. We gave the Cardinals life early, failed to capitalize on their errors, and found ourselves in a battle to the finish. It could be the same story this week if we don't jump out early.

The Eagles are looking for an excuse to start the off-season. I say we give them one. If not, there will be some serious nail-biting for Redskins fan.

My prediction: I say we come out a bit jittery and have a hard time moving the ball, but we avoid the huge mistake. I see a very ugly game early, with little scoring from either side. The Eagles will fight and keep it close in the first half. I think we will eventually put together a drive or two and take a lead in the second half. Maybe our defense makes a play to end it. But it's going to be tight. This game will keep us on the edge, and we'll be a few plays away from a loss. But we've come too far to blow it now. Gibbs will find a way.

Redskins 20, Eagles 16

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The only way we lose to the Beagles is if the staff doesn't make the team take them seriously.

They will, don't worry.

People thought there was no way we could match against NY with the same intensity we did against Dallas. We did. The team knows what's on the line and how hard they have worked to get there. They also know it's not over yet.

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hey good post, I agree. If I were the skins, I would want to kick off to the iggles, so then our D can shut em down, hopefully get decent field position. Then our O can come in pumped by the D and march.

I totally agree. I want our defense on the field first. I've never understood the blind assumption that winning the toss meant receiving the ball. If your defense is what carries you.. then put the defense on the field first, knowing that at the half you will get the ball regardless of how the first half ends. What is the true percentage of teams scoring on the first possession when they've won the toss and received the ball, I wonder.

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I think you're right.

I worry that a turnover or two will hurt us. I think if we are even in the TO margin, we should win. Obviously, in a toe-to-toe fight, our D should hold their O to 10 or 14 points. However, a big play on ST or D might swing that score up some.

Their D should still be able to contain our O like it did the first time around. I think we've improved some, but we actually played a pretty good game offensively that night and scored 17 points, so I don't see us lighting up the scoreboard for much more than that.

If we keep them between 10 and 14 points, we'll be OK I think!

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The rule of the day for the game Sunday is quite simple really:

NO TURNOVERS!!!!

Exactly. We have more talent on the field and more playmakers. The only way we can lose to the Eagles is by giving them a short field and losing the field position battle all game long. Giving up big special teams plays is also a concern of mine.

We need to commit to the run and make sure Portis knows to protect the ball.

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I totally agree. I want our defense on the field first. I've never understood the blind assumption that winning the toss meant receiving the ball. If your defense is what carries you.. then put the defense on the field first, knowing that at the half you will get the ball regardless of how the first half ends. What is the true percentage of teams scoring on the first possession when they've won the toss and received the ball, I wonder.

In the NFL, if you win the toss you have the choice to kick or receive the opening kickoff. The other team then has the choice for the second half, so if you were to win the toss and kickoff you would end up kicking off at the start of the second half as well, since the other team would definitely chose to receive. It's not like college where you can defer your choice to the second half.

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I think the game will be close like you said. It won't be because the Redskins are bad, I just feel that naturally, on the road against a division rival with nothing to lose, the game will be inherently close. The two things we have to do win this game are "zeros" in the turnover and big play category. We can not afford a 50-yard run by Moats or big special teams plays just as we can not afford to turn the ball over. We have to force them to play offense with balance and consistency because I do not think they can with their current personnel at skill positions.

Big plays have done us in in the past, we can not let them do the same on Sunday.

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I am very confident that the defense will shut them down. McMahon can move a little bit and I respect Reid enough to believe they can grind out some first downs and put a few points on the board, but there is no way the Eagles win this game because their offense is shredding our defense.

That's the first time I've heard anyone associate the Iggles with "grind it out" football :laugh:

I predict we crush them - no ifs, ands or buts. They'll come out with a little fire, but they'll make an early mistake and then the floodgates will open.

Skins 35 Iggles 13

(our last 7 points are a Ramsey drive in clean-up time - Iggles get a fieldgoal with 3 minutes or less)

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That's the first time I've heard anyone associate the Iggles with "grind it out" football :laugh:

I predict we crush them - no ifs, ands or buts. They'll come out with a little fire, but they'll make an early mistake and then the floodgates will open.

Skins 35 Iggles 13

(our last 7 points are a Ramsey drive in clean-up time - Iggles get a fieldgoal with 3 minutes or less)

I like your attitude and I hope you're right

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The only way we lose to the Beagles is if the staff doesn't make the team take them seriously.

They will, don't worry.

People thought there was no way we could match against NY with the same intensity we did against Dallas. We did. The team knows what's on the line and how hard they have worked to get there. They also know it's not over yet.

GREAT point.

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