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Brave new world for NFL 2005

Thinking Skins

By Thinking Skins
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Thinking Skins

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http://www.newsday.com/sports/weblog/archives/2005/09/brave_new_world.html

September 08, 2005

Brave new world for NFL 2005

In this parity filled world we call the National Football League, any team can make the playoffs. Even the Arizona Cardinals!

Some are predicting Arizona, the only franchise in America that makes the NBA's Los Angeles Clippers look like the ideal business model, will win their division this season.

That's a bold, bold prediction. Refreshing, too.

Patriots vs. Eagles. Eagles vs. Patriots. That's becoming more monotonous than John Madden's analysis on Monday Night Football.

While I won't go so far as to crown the Cardinals champions, here are my bold predictions for the 2005 NFL season:

AFC East champion: New York Jets.

Sure, they've only won the division twice in their 44-year history. Sure, they are still the Jets. But there are no glaring weaknesses in any group on either side of the ball. Questions, yes. Major holes to fill, no. Remember, the Jets were a good kicker away from playing for the AFC championship last season. Mike Nugent can hit from 55 yards at will. And if you think he can't handle the pressure of New York, you try kicking for Ohio State, a program with fans that make Raider Nation look like a day care center.

AFC North champion: Baltimore Ravens.

Can Kyle Boller be this year's Drew Brees? You know, a garbage quarterback who finally remembers how to play football. If so, the Ravens will coast to a division title. With Ray Lewis and Ed Reed still Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, their defense remains the first one drafted by fantasy leaguers across the country. Then, of course, there's Primetime, the best-ever cornerback who couldn't tackle.

AFC South champion: Indianapolis Colts.

Nothing bold about that prediction. Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison. Edgerrin James. Reggie Wayne. Brandon Stokely. Some receiver we've never heard of. To quote Editor friend Tim, "Whoooozgonnabeatem?" But here is one crazy call: The defense will actually stop someone when needed.

AFC West champion: Oakland Raiders.

I'll give you a minute to calm down and pick up the monitor off the floor after reading the above sentence. But in keeping with the theme of bold predictions, what could be more bold than claiming a team with a defense that's easier to score on than an empty net in hockey? Randy Moss will catch 22 touchdowns. LaMont Jordan will rush for more than 2,000 yards based simply on the fact that the Jets did not re-sign him. Kerry Collins will throw his share of interceptions and Charles Woodson will complain to the media every third week. But they will win the division on a tiebreaker.

AFC Wild Cards: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers.

Oh lord, did I just exclude the Patriots from the NFL playoffs? To quote "Stone Cold" Steve Austin, "Hell yeah!" The Patriots went 14-2 last season en route to a second straight Super Bowl (and three of the last four). Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is gone. That's 13-3. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is gone. That's 12-4. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi is out for the season. That's 11-5. The Tuck rule finally comes back to bite Tom Brady. That's 10-6. The Jets win the AFC East. That's 9-7. That's not good enough.

(No, I haven't been drinking today.)

Pittsburgh will be good but not great. Ben "Do you think your Wu-Tang sword can defeat me?" Roethlisberger simply cannot be as good as he was last year. Plaxico Burress is a Giant. Male gigolo Duce Staley is hurt again. But a wild card berth is there for the taking.

The Chiefs have the offense, and maybe just enough defense to get themselves into the playoffs. Priest Holmes is running out of hips and Larry Johnson is ready to be football's Grandma-ma.

Sorry, Mike Shanahan, but your run of running back luck ended once your Denver Broncos brain trust said, "OK, let's take Clarett." . . . San Diego has the best back in the league in LaDainian Tomlinson, but they also have Drew Brees. When a player wins NFL comeback player of the year and there was no injury or terminal illness to overcome, that simply means he was a very bad player before. Brees reverts, Chargers tumble . . . Buffalo Bills? Willis McGahee, yes, but J.P. Losman is a rookie coming off a broken leg. No playoffs this year.

NFC East champion: Philadelphia Eagles.

There's a fine line between bold and stupid. Even I know when not to cross it.

NFC North champion: Detroit Lions.

Apparently, I don't know when not to cross it. You have to admire Brett Favre's courage, but he used up all his "Bad things happen to me and I still overcome them" reward points last season. Plus, the Packers have no defense. I can't in good faith believe this Minnesota yang about losing Randy Moss makes them better. Plus, there's the Mike Tice Rule, which clearly states a team coached by Mike Tice must overperform early, underperform late, and if lucky enough to squeak into the playoffs, lose immediately so he can scalp his Super Bowl tickets. (In some cultures, uttering the phrase "Mike Tice" will land you in jail for three weeks.) 'Da Bears? Don't be 'da ridiculous. That leaves Joey Heisman and his merry band of first-round draft picks at wide receiver. And Steve Mariucci is Italian, so that's another plus.

NFC South champion: Carolina Panthers.

Three good running backs. A total of 4.5 healthy knees. That, plus a good defense and a solid Jake Delhomme will get the job done. Not to mention the fact that the Falcons have had a nasty wax on, wax off history of late.

NFC West champion: St. Louis Rams.

People still think of the 1999 Rams. It's been six years since all those receivers each caught 200 passes for 2,000 yards and 23 touchdowns. However, the offense is still very good and coach Mike Martz is still very crazy, which makes for great television. The rest of the division is garbage and I'm not yet ready to anoint Arizona as this year's comeback team of the century.

NFC Wild Cards: Washington Redskins, New Orleans Saints.

Joe Gibbs will outcoach God (Bill Parcells) on Dec. 18 and that will make the difference. So will Clinton Portis.

The Saints, without a home field (except for every American secretly rooting for them) because of Hurricane Katrina, will provide the most relief to the lost city of New Orleans. As the people affected by Katrina begin to search for a new life, the Saints will provide a ray of hope to an otherwise hopeless and ravaged city. Call it a sentimental pick if you wish (Nola friend Hunter and the crew at Fat Harry's that night, if you're reading this, we all hope you're safe). But then realize that sports is all about overcoming tragedy and succeeding when no one else thought you would.

Where's Minnesota? The Mike Tice rule applies again . . . Dallas? Parcells is more washed up than his quarterback . . . Atlanta? Vick is amazing, but it's wax off this season. Green Bay? Rent "There's something about Mary" in January if you want to see Favre.

The Playoffs

AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh beats Oakland; Baltimore beats Kansas City.

AFC Divisional Round: Jets beat Baltimore; Indianapolis beats Pittsburgh.

AFC Championship: Jets 23, Colts 20.

NFC Wild Card: Washington beats Detroit; St. Louis beats New Orleans.

NFC Divisional Round: Philadelphia beats St. Louis; Washington beats Carolina.

NFC Championship: Washington 17, Philadelphia 13.

Super Bowl: Jets 31, Washington 9.

Just remember, the theme here is bold predictions. There's a good chance none of this will happen. But if it does, I'm rolling up a stake and going to Vegas.

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