philibusters

Amarius Mims is at Georgia

He had a bad game, but he has had an alright season. Yesterday he gave up 1 sack and 3 hurries for a total of 4 pressures. On the season in 11 games 3 sacks, 3 QB hits, and 21 hurries for a total of 27 pressures, which is about 2.5 pressures per game. When he loses he can lose fast which is problematic, but he is still a decent option and almost never gets hurt. If we draft a Tackle high and then somehow get another good option in free agency, then move on, but make sure you have a good option if you are going to move on. Bears fans felt somewhat similar to you, they were frustrated by him and definitely looking forward to moving on and then they downgraded at that position for the first two years after he left. Seeing John Simpson and and Aaron Brewer on that list ahead of him is surprising.

For the right price he would be a good get. Unfortunately I don't know what that price is. In his best days, he was a turnover machine (that was kind of his specialty). By contrast if you based his projection off of what he did this year following the injuries, he may be like a Cole Holcomb level player. In the little bit he played last year and what he played this season, he is a LB grading in the 60's.

The Bears got Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards this past off season. Both are really good players. If the Bears had not traded Roquan Smith he probably hits free agency. Offball linebackers are really hard to franchise because of the outdated way the NFL defines the position. They include Edge players from 3-4 systems in their definition of LB'ers, so when they franchise tag is computed averaging out the 10 highest paid players at the position, its almost all Edge players, so the franchise tag is prohibitive for like almost all offball linebackers. Its also a reason why we almost definitely won't exercise the 5th year option for Jamin Davis. Even though the 5th year option is cheaper than the franchise tag, its still computed using a lot of offball LB data and unless a guy is in line for top of the market offball LB money (like a Fred Warner or Roquan Smith) it wouldn't make sense to exercise the 5th year option. To me, Fred Warner is elite and Roquan Smith is very close to elite. I don't know if I think there are any other gamechanging offball LB'ers in the NFL.

He is going to cost 28 to 30 million a year and while is a dynamic pass rusher, he is a below average run defender. He will give you between 9 sacks and 12.5 sacks per season (over the last four years, his lowest year was 9 sacks, highest 12.5) so he will give you a good, but arguably not elite pass rush and while not truly awful as a run defender, he averages out as a mid 50's PFF run defense player. I rather go after a player like Danielle Hunter who is a similar pass rusher, better run defender and probably cheaper. He'll possible be cheaper because he is four years older than Burns (Hunter is currently 29 years old compared to Burns who is 25 years old). I get the Burns love as he is a very good pass rusher entering his prime, but I am not even really considering him. Plus I think you would have to trade for Burns as the feel is he will be franchised if the Panthers cannot reach an agreement with him.

I don't know if the Cardinals could trade Murray but its possible. About 70 million of his deal was signing bonus. The first two years covered 24 of that 70 million dollar signing bonus. So that leaves 46 million left. That is the deadcap the Cardinals would take if they traded Murray. That is a lot, but they would have a relatively cheap QB in the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye so they could probably swing that. For the team trading for the Cardinals, the year to year numbers wouldn't be as bad as it is for the Cardinals because the 46 million of prorated singing bonus wouldn't be on their books, the Cardinals would have had to eaten that at the time of the trade. Looking at Overtehcap , the cap hit for the team acquiring Murray over the next three years would be something like 38 million in 2024, 32 million in 2025 and 42 million in 2026 which could be feasible. So it comes down to how highly do people around the league think of Murray. https://overthecap.com/player/kyler-murray/7792

I somewhat agree. There is no blindside for a QB when a QB plays out of shotgun. Pass rushers can move from side to side. I think there is still a distinction between LT and RT, but I don't think its as important as say the distinctiion between an outside and slot receiver.

Looking back at the last 5 draft classes there have been 5 WR's drafted in teh top 10 and they are all worth the pick in my opinion. They are 1. Garrett Wilson 2. Drake London 3. Jamarr Chase 4. Jaylen Waddle 5. Devonta Smith It is true, you can find good WR's outside the top 10, but that is true for every position in football. I consider the WR a premium position in terms of value so if you like the prospect a lot, go for it.

I really have a tough time seeing the Bears passing on Caleb Williams If the Cards are at #2, I think they would draft QB, but I could also see them trading down. First, Maye isn't seen as quite the prospect Williams is and second it would probably depend on the hall, but if they could say trade down to 3 and pick up two extra first rounders or something, then yeah I think they could live with Murray

We definitely could have just drafted Howell higher, say with our third or fourth round pick. In order to draft Brian Robinson higher we would have had to reach. We got him with a compensatory third round pick. However that year we did not have a normal third round pick because of the Carson Wentz trade, which means we would have had to take him at 47, which would have been a reach.

Fashanu if he is on the board, though he is probably off the board too. Probably Laiatu Latu if he is still on the board

Josh Allen has had two bad games this year. Other than those two games, he has been really good. He is just having an unlucky season in terms of turnovers. Yes his interceptions are up, but his turnover worthy plays are down. He has 11 interceptions and only 10 turnover worthy plays according to PFF. Last year he had 14 interceptions on 29 turnover worthy plays and the year before 15 interceptions on 26 turnover worthy. Interceptions vs. turnover worthy plays are a bit like sacks and pressures. Overall pressures are a more predictive stat than sacks. For example, Daron Payne had 11.5 sacks last year, but if you just looked at his pressures you would have predicted 7 sacks or so. The previous couple years he had got 4.5 and 3 sacks though both years if you looked at the total pressures amount you would have predicted he would have got an additional two sacks. After last years 11.5 sack season, this year he is at one. Likewise, Allen is probably actually doing slightly better at protecting the football this year, he is just having bad turnover luck. If he throws in coverage its getting picked almost every time. Over time if he continues to take care of the ball better those numbers will go down.

1. Giving up more big plays: Some of this is freelancing, some of its other teams making more plays, and some its worse execution from us (not due to freelancing). If you look at just the defense success rate, this defense is just a bit below average. However while success rate is a good predictor of future play because it tells you what it happening on a down by down basis, it downplays big plays (whether you give up a 60 yard TD or 10 yard completion for a first down, both count the same). Its definitely worth noting that even success rate is significantly down from last year, but the big plays are turning a mediocre defense into a terrible one. 2. Some players not playing as well as last year

We are 31st out of 32 in points per game allowed and 29th out of 32th in yards per game allowed. Derrick Forrest and Cody Barton are the only starters who have missed significant time. I was a Jack Del Rio supporter going into the year, but I have lost confidence in him. I definitely think a lot of it falls on the coaching staff (like the majority of the blame). There is no doubt that at times, the players did not execute the scheme well, but its the coaches staff to train them to execute it.

I want to say Vance Joseph is the DC of the Broncos. Its a return for him because he used to be their HC. I think Brian Flores is the DC of the Miami Dolphins.

We use void years. In terms of should we be as aggressive as the Eagles in using void years, I don't think we should right now because our team is not in a position to really contend for a Super Bowl. But lets say we finish this year and go 9-8, then go 11-6 the next year and Howell is really coming on. They we may want to be more aggressive to really open a four or five year window of having some great teams.

Local kid from Maryland. Started at out at the University of Maryland where he was the gem of their recruiting class (top 100 prospect nationally(. Was part of Maryland's rotation his true freshman year, got two sacks. Then Caleb Williams father convinced him to tour USC and possibly transfer there and get some nice NIL money. The NIL money did not come through for Chop Robinson at USC, then he came back to the University of Maryland and asked for some NIL money. Coach Michael Locksley considered it, but ran it by his team captains and decided against it. He had left the team in the middle of spring practice to tour USC and making him one of the highest paid players on the team when he left the team in the middle of spring practice and giving him money over veterans starters would have upset the balance of the team to much. So Maryland declined to meet his NIL requests and he ended up transferring to Penn St. where he quickly became one of the best edge players in the country. As a Maryland fan I have a bit of a grudge against him because he has done some negative recruiting against Maryland from Penn St. I think there were some hard feelings on both sides. On Maryland's side there was a feel he quit on the team when he left in the middle of spring practice and that him asking for NIL money before he had earned was a show of entitlement. On his side, I think he felt hurt when the player leaders advised Locksley not to give him the NIL money because his demands were not outrageous (part of the problem is Maryland has a much lower NIL budget than say USC or Penn St. so what is reasonable to give a developmental guy there who has not proven it, is not reasonable to give a developmental player at Maryland).

I quoted the wrong post. I didn't mean to quote you. I meant to quote the person who said Caleb Williams was the third best QB prospect since Luck. I knew one of them was Trevor Lawrence but was trying to figure out who the other was.

Who are the two ahead of Caleb Williams? Trevor Lawrence I can see, not sure who else you would put above him if you start in from 2013.

I admittedly didn't watch that game, but the Bears defense did well against the Saints despite losing 24-17. They held the Saitns to 301 yards and 4.9 yards per play. They lost the game cause they lost the turnover battle 5 to 0. I thought the Bears defense looked pretty last night against the Panthers too. In terms of why we didn't see a lot of sacks against the Patriots despite have a 48 pass rush win rate was because the Patriots get rid of the ball quick. After they gave up 4 defensive TD's in a two game stretch, they don't want Mac Jones extending plays. I think John Keim said Mac Jones was the fastest QB in week 9 in terms of getting the ball or the second fastest or something like that. They throw something quick underneath or throw a go ball. They are not even really trying to use the intermediate passing game. But its hard to get sacks against an offense like that (but fairly easy to defend).

I remember thinking that was a decent draft class. Montez Sweat and Cole Holcomb were actually good starters, add McLaurin in to that mix and you have one star and two solid starters. Jimmy Moreland was basically Danny Johnson, a serviceable nickel. Kelvin Harmon did not do anything after his rookie year, but flashed a tiny bit his rookie year with 365 receiving yards.

Assuming it would take three first rounders to get Drake Maye, I think there is going a preference to give Howell a shot. If Maye ends up developing into a top 10 QB and Howell doesn't well, it was definitely a mistake, but three first rounders is a lot.

Leno is having a good year. 74 PFF grade with a 79 pass pro grade and 63 run block grade. Pass pro and durability are Leno's calling card. His weaker areas are his running blocking (63 grade this year, 56 grade last year, 64 grade in 2021--so not a killer weakness, but certainly not a strength) and the fact while he doesn't suffer a ton of losses in pass pro, he does seem to have a higher percentage of his losses being quick losses than some other guys. But a solid player all three years he has been here. He flat out doesn't get the appreciation he deserves. I see fans constantly trying to figure out how to replace him or cut him. Chicago fans were the same way and in the three years since he left, that position has been downgraded from when he was there.

For what its worth Emmanuel Forbes now has a higher season PFF grade than Deonte Banks (49 for Forbes and 48 for Banks). Both are bad scores, but people are acting like Forbes is an outrageous flop. Forbes' grade is also higher than Derek Stingley Jr. rookie grade last year (though by less than 1 point--cornerback Houston Texasns 3rd overall pick 2022 draft). Christian Gonzalez was crushing it in his 3.5 games before injury (80 PFF grade) and Joey Porter Jr. has been very solid (71 PFF grade). I am not panicing on Forbes yet, I still think he'll be a solid corner with more seasoning.