philibusters

It looks like I misremembered. It appears 6'0 and 5/8ths was the official measurement.

Campbell has been up and down. The modern NFL offenses really put a lot of stress on LB'ers and you should expect a learning curve. Is Campbell a good player--no, not really. Is he as good as Jamin Davis in year 3. Probably not, I give Jamin Davis a slight edge, but he is better than Davis was in year 1 and probably close to Davis in year 2. Its tough to take a LB in round 1 just because the learning curve for that position is steeper than some others, so it may take an extra year to develop that player. Where a WR is in year 2 is where a LB will be in year 3 for example, so you waste a year of their rookie contract. In terms of whether the Lions should have taken Jalen Carter at pick 6 or whether they did well to trade down from 6 to 12 to take Gibbs and use the extra pick they got to take Sam LaPorta, it comes down to Carter vs. Gibbs and LaPorta. I think LaPorta arguably has the most impressive season. Jalen Carter came out on fire with 24 pressures in the first 6 games, but in the last 9 games he only has 15 pressures and looks more like a mid level starter. I think ultimately Carter will be a pro bowl stud and if I just had to pick one of the 3 players, due to positional value, he is the guy I would take. That said its a close call between Carter vs. LaPorta and Gibbs and that is not even really factoring the off field issue with Carter and the car accident.

I feel like the Rams played the type of game, where we could have stolen a win if we played one of our better games. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you think of it from a draft positioning angle) we did not play a particularly game. Defense gave up an easy TD on a coverage bust, gave up a fg on a botched snap on a punt and gave one point on botched extra point snap, if you were ranking Howell's game 1-14 for the 14 games he played this year, yesterday probably ranks 9th or 10th. Turnovers were not an issue but he simply missed (by not seeing them) more open receivers yesterday than typical. 80%+ of the time if you win the turnover battle by two you will win the game. I felt the Rams were beatable, they are the definition of a middle of the pack team. Better than us, but beatable especially if the turnover battle goes our way. Not an impressive effort from our guys this year. In terms of draft position, that is a good thing though.

Howell is 6 feet and 3/8ths of an inch. He got officially measured at the combine, so there is a definite answer for that one.

Either QB could win next week, but if we win next week, I doubt its because the offense goes off. More likely the Jets struggle to score against us and turn it over once or twice. The Jets offense is not good, but their defense is probably a top 5 defense .

Today didn't change my perception of Howell much. I still like him, but am interested in 3 QB's (Williams, Maye, and Daniels) if available. All in all, I am still happy with Howell this season. Likewise I still think he has to get rid of the ball quicker. I think sacks are more of a QB stat than O-Line stat (though its close between the two) and I think Howell is just a little slow with his reads. But a bad day doesn't change the picture. I am still starting Howell next week if I am the coach without any second thought. Thats part of it. The other part of it was our interior gets pushed back. We need more size back there.

I don't know if I completely agree that the Chargers were that far away from being a contender with Herbert. The last two weeks they have not had Herbert and got outscored 24-7 and 63-21 and -59 point differential. With Herbert they were 5-7, but had a positive 17 point differential meaning they were a little bit better than their record indicated. I don't think this Chargers team was really that different from teh teams that went 10-7 and 9-8 the past couple years, I think this team was just losing close games. That said the last couple weeks they have collapsed and the difference between Herbert and Stick doesn't explain a lot of what happened the past couple weeks. I think the team kind of gave up

Sure, but we are talking about how attractive a job is to a GM or coach candidate. They are going to assume that they are going to get it right.

I disagree. Just tear down the roster for a year. Eat a lot of deadcap and just be really bad for a year. Then next offseason your cap situation is a lot better, you have a really high pick where you can get a bluechip prospect or trade down and get an extra first rounder. Where the Chargers run into problems is if they feel they have to compete every year rather than rebuild. I think they should rebuild and the rebuild should be a lot easier because they already have the QB.

To me the number 1 that you have to have to build a consistent contender is a franchise QB. Justin Herbert is a franchise QB in my opinion. If you have a franchise QB, you will get consistent surplus value out of that position, which will make rebuilding easier.

I may have completed missed it, but Monty Rice was released a couple weeks ago, I wonder why we didn't put a waivers claim on him. He is not the LB fans fantasize about, but my impression of him is he would have been the third best LB on this team behind Jamin Davis and Cody Barton. The Saints got him off waivers and we would have likely been a few spots ahead of them in the waiver order. Maybe if Davis and Barton were both healthy I could see passing, but with Davis out, he would be nice to have. Granted I do understand its near the end of the year, so by the time he learns the defense, there may be a game or two left, which won't be meaningful for us, so they may have just thought what was the point.

I agree with the top two in the ranking: the Bears and the Chargers. How he ranked 3-10, I would change up quite a bit. Atlanta doesn't seem desirable because it seems like the type of job where you stay mediocre for a while because you are expected to compete right away with a decent roster that is lacking a potential franchise QB. If they trade for Justin Fields, you can certainly make the playoffs with that roster, but you are probably looking at 10-7 or 9-8. The roster is solid, not great, and no QB, and because you'll likely be picking in the middle of the 1st round, it won't necessarily be easy to get that QB to build around. I don't think New England is attractive. Its a complete rebuild, which some potential coaches may like, but you have very little to work with on offense in your first couple years and you are taking over a defense that has a lot of older good players (though unlike the offense it has more young good players too) where it is going to be tough for it to meet the production it had under Belichick. One nice thing about New England is you should have the pick to get your QB this draft. Possibly QB 2 in a strong QB draft. Maybe it is the homer in me, but I would probably put the Commanders third. The homer in my says Josh Harris will be an involved owner but not domineering which is fairly ideal and we likely either have a young QB on the roster already or will have a high enough pick to get QB 3 in what looks to be a pretty solid draft class.

Because of the covid year not counting it feels like some of those QB's have been around for a long time. For example it will be Dillon Gabriel's 6th year and because he took over as a starter at UCF as a true freshman due to injury like I actually remember him from that 2019 season. He'll have 3 years at UCF, 2 at OU, and 1 at Oregon. However, because he was an 18 year old true freshman (rather than 19 or even some true freshman are 20), he'll only be 23 for his senior year season, and 24 as a rookie, not that unusual because there have always been 5th year seniors who started out as 19 year old true freshmen. It will likewise be Grayson McCall's 6th year. Unlike Dillon Gabriel he didn't play much as a true freshman so he wasn't on my radar until the 2020 season when he took over as a starter. Also like Gabriel he was a 18 year true freshman, so he'll only be 23 next year and 24 as a rookie. But yeah I remember this board discussing BYU vs. Coastal Carolina in 2020 where everybody was scouting two potential future pros in Zach Wilson and McCall... https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401237514 We are two years away I think from being done with players who got a 6th year because of the covid year. In some weird way I am kind of looking forward to that because I feel like its tough to evaluate 24 year old men against mostly 19 to 21 year old competitors.

I cannot even remember the last time a franchise QB let a top 8 or so QB in their prime go (either via trade or free agency). The closest thing I can remember off the top of my head is Kirk Cousins (and he was not considered a top 8 QB, though he was probably considered top 16---and we turned a first round pick from the 49'ers)

They define true pass sets as pass plays that are not screens, playaction, rollouts... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-true-pass-sets-and-their-importance-to-player-evaluation I am don't know how much the teams pay for their services but I am guessing it is a lot. That said teams get a lot of stuff casual fans don't. For example, lets say a player with 400 snaps has 47 plays graded at 1+ points or -1 points. The rest are graded at 0, .5, or -5. I think teams can filter and only watch the plays graded at 1 or more or -1 or less when say looking at a college prospect. They also provide a lot about team tenedencies. How much coverage a defense plays in this situation vs. another. Same for offense. There is no doubt that PFF has done well since Chris Collinsworth bought a majority stake (in 2014), but because they were one of the first analytical companies selling data to teams (they started in 2006) some of their statute was just being first to game which predates Collinsworth.

Kam Curl is a good player, but he doesn't make splash plays in coverage. He ran a 4.60 at the NFL combine. He plays smart in coverage and part of playing smart if you lack speed is to understand you don't have the speed to get out of position. Thus he tends to be a fairly dependable but not great coverage player. As a run defender, he is very good for a safety, possibly a top 10 or so run defender amongst safeties in the NFL. That said splash plays are made by safeties in coverage--not in run defense. A fair deal for Curl would be something in the 3 year 40 million dollar deal.

In terms of a depth player, I don't think he has much choice. That said, he played 2/3rds of his snaps last season at Guard (albeit he only played about 400 total snaps) and he had a PFF grade of 60. This year he played all his snaps at C and got the exact same grade. The problem with Gates is he just is not a big guy for an interior O-lineman so he can be pushed back with power and he is not really fast or athletic so he is not dynamic in the run game. He is an okay player and fine for depth, but the front office misjudged thinking he would be a good starter.

I don't think we should cut Gates. He is a decent swing interior backup (can backup both Guard spots plus Center). His cap hit next year 5.5 million and the deadcap would be about 5.3 million you really only save .2 million in cap space by cutting him. I do think he would get cut after the 2024 season because at that point he only has 1.7 million deadcap. https://overthecap.com/player/nick-gates/7366 Wylie likewise would be hard to cut because his cap hit next year is 9.4 million, but the deadcap for cutting him would be 7.8 million. He has Tackle/Guard flexibility so he could be your fifth starter at Guard or Tackle or just versatile depth because of his ability to play both Guard and Tackle. https://overthecap.com/player/andrew-wylie/6323 From a pure cap standpoint, we would get the biggest savings if we cut Leno. His cap number next year is 15.75 million, the deadcap would be around 8.25 million if we cut him meaning there would be 7,5 cap savings if we cut him. That said, he is the best player of the three. If you draft a RT he is fine to start another year at LT, if you draft a LT, you can move him to RT and he be a fine starter. I see Leno as a mid-level starter and you don't want to downgrade the O-Line, which could happen if you cut Leno and don't replace him with a player as good. https://overthecap.com/player/charles-leno-jr/3185

I think what the last three years or so have show us is that the widezone Shanahan style offense is O-Line friendly. I am hesitant to sign O-Lineman who were meh, then started playing in a Shanahan offense, and suddenly were good. And Jackson meets that criteria. I am think he is probably a decent player, but I think playing in a O-Line friendly offense will make you look better and you end up paying a mid level starter like he is an above average starter.

I am pretty impressed by Ben Johnson. I think you are seeing the limitations of Goff as QB. I remember listening to the playcallers podcast that was out this summer about the spread of the Shannahan offense. McVay did really well with Goff at first. For McVay's first two years with the Rams (Goff's 2nd and 3rd years), Goff did really well. They were one of the best teams in teh NFC and lost a close game against Atlanta I think (in 2017), then made the Superbowl in 2018. But in 2018, teams somewhat figured out McVay's offense. Its not that people were not open, it is that they learned to disguise what they were doing//take away the plays first read--and Goff wasn't good at reading defenses postsnap. I feel like some of that may be happening in Detroit. Defenses may be learning how to take away the first read against Ben Johnson's offense. That doesn't mean guys are not open, but in order to find guys, Goff will have to make reads post-snap and he is still not good at that. Goff has pretty natural and easy accuracy. Doesn't have a big arm, but natural accuracy and some timing mean that if his first read is consistently open he make the offense run well. But his lack of ability post-snap does create problem if teams start to figure out how to take away the first read.

If they traded him this offseason the deadcap for the Cardinals would be about 46.5 million. I don't know their cap situation but they probably could make that work if they really prefer say Drake Maye over Murray. I do think the Cardinals could find a trade partner for Murray. Given that the Cardinals would be stuck taking the deadcap hit for 46.5 million of the contract (the prorated portion of the signing bonus), its not that bad of a deal. Essentially you would be trading for a 4 year 180 million dollar deal but importantly after the first year (30 million) almost none of it is guaranteed. Kind of similar to the situation we had with Carson Wentz. So Kyler Murray is tradeable but the Cardinals have to take a deadcap hit of 46.5 million if they do that and that is a lot of deadcap, but probably doable. That said I only think they do it if it for Williams and Maye, which is why Murray can secure his future there by simply winning a couple games in the remainder of this season.

I feel like Kyler Murray and Sam Howell are in similar situations. Both are the QB for teams that could have early picks that could be used for their replacement. The best chance for both of them to keep their job next year is to win 2 out of the final 4 games. For both of them that almost definitely takes Williams and Maye off the board and potentially takes Daniels off the board. I think more likely than not Daniels will go in the first half of the first round, whether that is 3 or 13 I don't have a strong guess on. But if Howell wants to keep his job he needs to win 2 out of the final 4 games. That probably has us picking around pick 9 or something like that, where there is a reasonably shot the top 3 QBs are off the board.

Here is the Rams depth chart... https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams Yeah they have some really good players like Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua. They have a couple solid veterans in Robbie Havenstein and Jordan Fuller. But most of the other starters are JAG's. Albeit a couple of their young guys like Kobie Turner are showing some promise. But you look at their starting lineup and they have a lot of JAG's. But their getting the most out of their stars and playing like a team. They are probably greater than the sum of their parts right now.

Don't know why you hate PFF so much. Every single NFL team subscribes to their services for their stat keeping. I like having access to their grades because I feel it gives me greater insight. But even if you don't like the grades, you should like their stat keeping.

According to PFF he has had 569 pass snaps and 305 of them were true pass sets (which excludes the quick games and screens)