philibusters

8-9

I looked at his PFF profile and I think your description is accurate. He has played 987 snaps the past 5 seasons (about equal to say 15 games as a starter) and averages out to a low 60's PFF grade during that time. He doesn't upgrade the starting lineup but would definitely upgrade the Tackle depth.

Allen would be okay as a DE, but it is kind of like when Kansas experimented with Chris Jones at DE. He went from being an elite player to a good player. Allen would likely go from being a good to average player if you move him to DE. Thus I don't see us using Allen as a traditional DE a lot. More likely playing the 3 of them would probably be part of an odd man front (center covered but Guards not covered). Most teams mix in odd man fronts, but very few make it a staple defense. The odds are we would use it to l to create favorable matchups and mix up the O-Line, but I highly doubt it would be a staple. That said we may use them more often than average given that those three probably end up being our best 3 D-Lineman.

Last year's secondary underachieved more than any unit on the team in my opinion. I think the biggest issue was probably just have a weak position coach. Chris Harris was probably an above average position coach. Brent Vieselmeyer was a newbie last year, his first year as a position coach. Del Rios schemes didn't help. While he was fairly vanilla with the D-Line, he used fairly complex coverage schemes. So we needed a top notch DB coach and instead DB coach was probably our weakest position coach. The impression I get is Sainristil is a natural leader and good communicator on the field. Granted I don't think a rookie Sainristil fixes last year's secondary issues, but like a 5th year Sainristil who could have been the leader of the secondary, probably would have certainly helped last year. I was not a Sainristil guy pre-draft. I acknowledged that he was good, but said I preferred an outside corner. After the draft now that he is on board I am definitely warming up to the pick.

I have low expectations for Braeden Daniels. By contrast I am higher on Allegretti. I think either Allegretti or Stromberg wins the starting LG spot.

Coleman probably translate better immediately at Guard than Tackle because at least according to PFF he was best in man/gap run blocking, second best in zone run blocking, and weakest in true pass sets. Moving him to Guard takes more advantage of his run blocking and allows you to hide his pass blocking. That said he has the physical tools to play Tackle. He has the arm length and quick enough feet to be a decent pass blocker. Right now he lacks the technique and there is no guarantee he will be able to pick up the technique (for example he plays to high allowing him to be suspectible to power moves and there is no guaranteed he'll have the bend to fix that), but assuming he can improve technique wise, he does have the physical tools to play Tackle, even if he is immediately better off at Guard where his pass blocking can be hidden more.

He was an outside corner. According to PFF he played 774 snaps at outside corner, 81 snaps inside the box, and 19 snaps at slot corner.

Bates is a decent blocking TE. I could see the team bringing him back next year.

I spent the past four years holding a grudge against Jer'Zhan Newton, but I am ready to root him on. The grudge stems from the fact the he originally committed to the University of Maryland out of HS, but later Lovie Smith and Illinois were able to flip him. He wasn't considered a blue chip prospect coming out of HS, but he was considered a good prospect and probably had a dozen or so Power 5 offers. His loss hurt as his loss left a hole in the DT class UMD was bringing in. So I kind of had the attitude I hope he doesn't amount to anything at the college level. But he obviously did become a great college player. Now I am ready to root for him.

2 - Drake Maye 36 - Kool-AidMcKinstry 50 - Kingsley Suamatia 53 - Jonah Ellis 67 - Cooper Bebbe 100 - Troy Franklin 139 - Jeremiah Trotter Jr. 161 - Christian Jones 222 - Jaheim Bell By contrast by picks knowing who the Commanders had previously taken 2 - Drake Maye 36 - Kool-AidMcKinstry 50 - Kingsley Suamatia 53 - Kingsley Suamatia 67 - Kiran Amegadije 100 - Troy Franklin 139 - Jeremiah Trotter Jr. 161 - Christian Jones 222 - Brendan Rice

So I get confused on these hypotheticals. When I am picking at 53 am I considering who I took at 2, 36, and 50 or alternatively who the team had taken at 2, 36, and 50 because they will produce different results.

My take on Guyton which is all secondhand, though it is derived from listening to a handful of opinions on him, is that his film sucks. He had his struggles at the senior bowl, but he also came across as a high energy guy at the senior bowl who at least some thought were coachable, but its tough to tell from like three days of practice. So I more or less agree, but am probably marginally higher on him because of the reports of his high energy and good attitude.

That defraft does make a lot of sense. At 36, I don't hate taking a corner if that is where the value but I don't necessarily feel like Melton is a value pick at 36. 40 makes no sense. We just spent a third rounder on Ricky Stromberg last year at C and then signed Tyler Biadz to a 3 year deal. Frazier is the consensus #2 center and if we were a center hungry team it would be an okay pick but given we just spent in free agency and used a third rounder last year, makes very little sense. At 67 Adisa Iaac is an okay pick, but given the guys you mention available its not a good pick for us. At 78 I see RB as a luxury not a need pick. I am not all that familar with Trevin Wallace at 100 and its not a terrible place to pick LB, but it just seems like a bad draft from a Commanders standpoint.

This seems really stupid.

In terms of the Johnny Wilson discussion, I think he may fit best in a system that utilizes a big slot receiver like a Shanahan offense. I think as an outside WR, he'll be okay against zone and gives a big target for the QB to look for. Against man to man I don't think he will get separation but because of his size if you have an accurate and confident QB you can throw him contested balls. But I don't think he is ideal if you want to utilize him to beat tight man coverage. I think he could be a good big slot assuming he is able to use his size to be a decent blocker on outside zone runs. The big slot in the Shanahan offense kind of operates as a hybrid TE/WR. That said I am running a Shanahan offense and want a big slot, the guy I want is Keon Coleman. I think he is fine as an outside WR and could be a solid 2, but his lack of athleticism places limitations on him outside, whereas I think he could be a very good big slot. I am stealing that opinion from PFF. On their podcast they talked about how a lot of his metrics were fantastic, but the one worrisome metric was he was only in the 30 percentile against press man coverage compared to other than draftable prospects over the past 10 years. And a lot of that probably comes down to that 4.61 forty time he ran and his lack of ability to just run by people not giving him enough cushion. But they though his skill set translated very well to big slot, much like a Cooper Kupp who only ran a 4.62 forty. His short area quickness is better than his speed and he good contested catch ability, ability to catch over the middle, and good against zone defenses. Because he is not small you don't think of Coleman as a slot, but he probably is a big slot in a Shanahan offense. The things that sticks about that list to me is just how much lower you are on the Texas WR's than the consensus.

I think Troy Fantanu should be with those top 5.

Ultimately I think both Guyton and Paul are developmental Tackle Prospects. Both have the physical tools to succeed, but need a good amount of polish before they are ready to be quality starters (with no guarantee that they will ever get that polish). But I definitely wouldn't trade up to get Guyton when I am confident I am get Paul at 40 if I want him.

i am on the Drake Maye bandwagon, though I am not particularly confident. I am not a QB evaluator and I know it. That doesn't stop me from having a take, but it does stop me from taking my take all that seriously.

I think you are right. There are rumors on the internet (see link) that when Minnesota approached Arizona about trading 11 and 23 plus maybe some change for 4, Arizona said they would only trade for 3 first rounders. Under most trade charts 11 and 23 only equal number 4 (under the Jimmy Johnson trade chart 11 and 23 are worth 2010 points vs 4 being worth 1800 points). Thus Arizona's positions seems to be that we are taking Marvin Harrison unless somebody is willing to overpay by an entire first round pick. If somebody is willing to overpay by that much, we'll do business with you, other wise , we are sitting put...

I linked to TheFranchiseGuy video and he was a fan (See the 21:20 mark of the video). Also Ramon Foster who talked very intelligently about tackle prospect wasn't as high on him. He definitely has the size and strength. I think his foot speed is bad and he chose not to run or do any of the testing at the combine or pro day so I think it likely wouldn't be good. I feel like Mims is even bigger and way more athletic. Granted Mims has a much smaller sample size as a player. That said, Latham only recently turned 21, does have that amazing size and power, and had a 82 PFF grade last year and a 76 PFF grade as a 19 year sophomore so I don't have a problem with putting him #2. For me though he would rank 6th, but 340 pounds, 35 inch arms, 21 years old with a decent sample size of good play, I see where you are coming from.

Some of my draft takes at WR, T, CB, and Edge WR: I agree with the the top three consensus of Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze. The guy I am significantly lower on than the consensus on this board is Brian Thomas Jr. and it was the PFF NFL podcast that covinced me (link below). Here are some worrisome stats on him--36% drop rate (meaning 64% of draftable prospects had a better drop rate than him). The raw stat was his drop rate was slightly over 10%. Yes, some of that is because he has a relatively high percent of downfield throws, but you compare that to other guys like Nabers, Odunze, and Harrison who also get a lot of downfield throws and they have better drop rates. He has is the 97% for accurate passes. That is the surprising stat. Given how many downfield passes he gets targeted with, one would expect that to be below 50%. And that speaks to Jayden Daniels accuracy. But it also means his yards after the catch should probably be a little better and his drop rate a little lower. I am definitely higher on Thomas than you Steve and Sam but I am definitely not trading both my second rounders to get him. Two WR's I like maybe a little more than consensus or Ladd McConkey and Ricky Pearsell. Both those guys are very much in play for me at 36 and 40. T: The Franchise Guy Youtube video on his top 10 tackles and an interview with Ramon Foster (the former Pittsburgh Steeler guard) on the PFF podcast are kind of driving my Tackle thoughts. My first tier at Tackle is Alt, Fashanu, Mims, Fuaga, and Fantanu. I would probably rank them in that order. I don't think Alt is ever an elite player. I think he may be able to get beat with a power occasionally, but he is very technically sound and very high effort gives him the highest floor. Fashanu has the best feet and could be an elite pass protector, but he has technique issues in both pass blocking and run blocking. The pass blocking technique issues didn't kill him in college, but they will hurt him in the NFL and to become an elite pass protector he is going to have to clean them up and that likely won't be instantly. His run blocking technique is bad and maybe the meaning/tenacity is not always there in run blocking and he is going to be a weak run blocker. Mims has the highest upside of all the tackles in my opinion. Size and great athleticism for his size. Good tape. Does give up some counter inside moves, but very high ceiling prospect. After thinking about I would trade both of our seconds to grab him at 18 or 19. I would also trade both our seconds for Fantanu. His upside is not Mims, but he has the second highest floor behind Alt. Very balanced player. Only 6'3.5 but with 34.5 inch arms you not overly worried about the height and he has good feet. Not a ton of power as a run blocker, but good athleticism and good tenacity as a run blocker. Fuaga strikes me a RT only and therefore I am less interested, but love his run blocking and decent pass protector. Worth a mid first round pick. Among the second tier guys, Blake Fisher is the one I think who is the most undervalued and yes I am taking that take mainly from teh Franchise Guys video, but I agreed with his reasoning. I dug into his PFF profile to verify taht his play is solid over the past two season. He just had his 21st birthday a few weeks ago. Sub 5.2 forty time, 6'6 315 pounds, and 34.375 inch arms. I think he should be in play at 36 and 40, though where I think he would be a great value is at 67. Corner: Like a lot of people I got Quinyon Mitchell first. My second tier consists of Nate Wiggins, the two Alabama corners, and Cooper DeJean. I think the order there depends on what you want. Nate Wiggins is the high ceiling guy, who is film is good not great, and who has some injuries injuries. The two Alabama corners are both good, but both are 4.5 guys, neither has great size, so their ceilings are probably not elite, and DeJean is probably best as a slot corner or safety. If playing outside he has stiff hips and cannot close on routes great, so he is probably really only good outside if in press coverage. Two guys that intrigue me or Kamari Lassiter and Andru Phillips. From multiple sources he has good college tape. But he ran a 4.65 forty which means he needs to play off coverage in the NFL. His PFF GAS numbers (his in game tracking numbers) are better but not great either. His limiting factor will be his athleticism. Phillips is a well rounded corner with good, not great athleticism. A 4.48 forty is not that impressive, but a good 10 yard split 1.51, good agility numbers, and good GAS numbers indicate he may have the athleticism to be a good man corner. 5'11 190 pounds. Decent, but not good PFF score this past season (72). I am definitely interested in Phillips at 67 or 78. Mike Sainristil is a guy I like and who is a viable option at 36 and 40. I think he is a better prospect than Phillips, but I don't think he will be there at 67 and I think his best spot is slot corner rather than outside corner. Our top two outside corenrs now are Forbes and St. Juste. At slot we have a number of options including one (Martin) that I am still optimistic about, so I am not as high on Sainristil and probably wouldn't take him at 36 or 40. Edge: I am a Latu guy. That said of the guys who would be options at 36 or 40, Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson, Jonah Ellis, and Chris Braswell, I think all four are worthy of a pick at 36 or 40. I like the two Robinsons the most of the four, though I suspect, neither will be there at 36 I am not sure either one are guys I would trade up. That said if they are there are 36, they would be good picks. Jonah Ellis has an amazing family pedigree with like 2 or 3 brothers in the NFL as his tape is good. He faltered down the stretch, but he was playing injured down the stretch. Braswell underwhelms me, but he balanced. Between Braswell and Ellis it really depends on scheme. At 246 pounds I am worried about Ellis size and strength against the run, but if its more of a 3-4 system, I think he is fine as an outside LB. If playing in more of a 4-3 I prefer Braswell. I think Booker, Isaac, Kneeland, and Trice would be viable options in the 67 or 78 spot.

I agree that renewables are very important to the future. But that they have a ton of drawbacks. First they are just not as reliable as fossil fuels. When France got rid of its nuclear power they thought it would mostly be made up through renewables. It hasn't. It wasn't made up for with fossil fuels. Why? Because France was less windy and more cloudy than anticipated in the years following the transition. 30 years ago there was a hope that batteries could be developed that could store the excess energy renewables produced when it was sunny or windy, but the battery hasn't developed as quickly as hoped and may still be 50 years away (kind of like self-driving cars it seemed close, but then it wasn't). Second, renewables have their own bad environmental consequences. It is not 100% clear to me over the long term they are more environmentally friendly than nuclear. For example in order to generate a large amount of power they need to take up a lot of space. Now if you are near a desert where it sunny and sometimes windy and the land is not that useable, that is an easy requirement to hit. But in crowded urban areas, there really is not enough room to put solar and wind farms. Likewise solar panels use a lot of fairly rare metals that require a lot of mining. Some of these metals can be toxic, so like nuclear waste you have to figure out what to do with them after the solar panels die (panel may have a 30 year life). Without doubt as the renewable technology gets better and as battery technology gets better renewables will be the wave of the future. There is no doubt about that. But as I said I think environmentalist messed up big time back in the 1950's and 1960's advocating for fossil fuels over nuclear and I think some continue to make the same mistake today.

Explaining the picks: 2. Preference for Maye over Daniels. I see Daniels as probably better in year 1 with his running ability and better throwing footwork, but Maye as the better long term pick. 36. I went with McConkey because he was the best player on my list of guys. I made a list of 11 guys that I was considering at 36 at four positions. They were WR: McConkey, Burton, Pearsell, Leggett--T Suamataia, Fisher, Amegadjee-- Edge: Braswell and Ellis and CB: Lassiter, Rakestraw, Phillips. My tops guys at each of those positions were McConkey, Suamataia, Braswell, and Lassiter so I ended up picking amongst those four. Just felt the most confident about McConkey. 40. If Suamataia had still been on the board I probably I would have gone with him, but he came off the board in this mock draft in the three picks between 36 and 40. I did consider Fisher, but I saw that on PFF's board he was rated like 70, so I figured there was a reasonable chance to get him at 67. Because I just took a WR I wasn't going to take another. Thus it became between Braswell and Lassiter. I felt like Braswell plays a more premium position and is probably a slightly safer pick. I don't love Braswell, doubt he is ever a great pass rusher, but he is balanced. He is solid against the run and pass. Not a dynamic pass rusher, but can win in a couple ways. I feel like Lassiter maybe had higher upside as he was probably a better college player than Braswell, but 4.6 speed for a outside corner probably means you can only use him in off coverage and we already have a player like that in Forbes. Close call. 67. No brainer. I think Blake Fisher is an underrated prospect. Only a true junior, decent combine numbers, decent film. I feel like he is less of a project than Amegadjee, who was already off the board at this point (but who I would have picked Fisher over). Maybe not a high ceiling pick, but decent floor and definitely could be a starting tackle in the NFL. I think he could project as a Charles Leno type player (more than serviceable), that is a slightly optimistic projection, but still realistic in my opinion. 78. Also a no brainer, I like Andru Phillips, but really like him at 78. I gave him some consideration at 36 and 40 though wasn't realistically going to take him there, but felt very comfortable taking him at 67. Of the 11 guys I listed as candidates at 36, he was the only still on the board at 78. Good athleticism and scheme versatility (can play zone, press man, off man), I felt lucky he was still on the board though rated as teh 80 prospect, I did kind of have in the back of my mind when I picked Braswell at 40 that I could possibly get Fisher at 67 and Phillips at 78 based on their PFF rankings. 100: Tommy Eichenberg--I am not going to lie after a couple no brainers in my opinion, I did have some regrets after hitting the draft button on Eichenberg. I didn't want to take a player at one of the 5 positions I already taken one at so I was looking at interior O-Lineman, Linebackers, Running Backs, and Tight Ends. And there was no player that stood out. Considered Sinnot the TE, Bebbe the Offensive Guard, but went with Eichenberg. They immediately questioned my choice. The quandary of having no obvious choice. 139: Javon Foster: At this point I was willing to double up on a position. I like Blake Fisher more than Javon Foster, but do think Foster is worth a flier at this point. I did check to see if Bebbe was on the board, but he was gone by this point. I forgot to check if Ben Sinnot was still available. That would have been a difficult choice, but due to poor process I didn't have to make that choice. 152. Theo Johnson: At this point I felt like I had addressed most of needs. TE is not a glaring need, but I don't know if I am sold on any of our younger options so I'll add another one to that group. I think Theo Johnson is decent value at this point in the draft too. Would have preferred Sinnot but he was off the board at this point. 222. I didn't spend much time on this pick. I figured I would pick up a RB at this point. None of the guys on the board were players I knew much about so it was kinda of picking blind. I considered the Ohio State running back, the RB from South Dakota St, and Ali from Marshall. I probably heard the most hype a about Ali, but admit this was just a shot in the dark as I am not particularly informed on any of the three.

I definitely don't understand why some environmentalists still continue to dis-like nuclear so much other than they learned it from their parents. I think the position was more justifiable in 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's when there was no understanding of global warming and hence people didn't factor in carbon emissions and when the design of nuclear powerplants was less sophisicated and there was more potential for a disaster. On the other hand back then, coal was the most common fuel source and it burned less cleanly than say natural gas which is a lot more common today. But yeah, environmentalist in France got their country to back up off nuclear like 10 years ago and of course their carbon emissions went up afterwardsd.

If I am trading our two second rounders to get back into the first round I think the guys I would consider are Brock Bowers, Olu Fashanu, Troy Fantanu, Laiatu Latu, Quinyon Mitchell. I would also consider a lesser trade, maybe 36 and 67 to get into the late first round if a player like Amarius Mims.