philibusters

That could be true for almost every screen though. The O-Line has to give it away to get to the second level. I don't think it was the play designed, I think it was more we needed to check out of the play given the defensive alignment of Miami.

To me there are only really three QB's I would consider drafting at this point (I am not that well informed so all this is subject to change 1. Caleb Williams (who realistically won't be an option) 2. Drake Maye (who realistically won't be an option) 3. Jayden Daniels (who there is at least some realistic possibility we could pick at our spot)

I am for moving up for a possible franchise QB too if the opportunity presents itself. In terms of this year, this is my analysis (which I am copying and pasting from a Youtube comment I made): I guess this is the way I would think about it with Sam Howell and Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix. What are the odds they will develop into a franchise QB (which we will define loosely as a top 12 or so QB). I would put the odds at something roughly like: 1. Caleb Williams 75% 2. Drake Maye 60% 3. Jayden Daniels 30% 4. Sam Howell 20% 5. Michael Penix 20% 6. Bo Nix 15% Admittedly there is some BS in those percentages as I haven't studied the guys and this is mostly based off their reputations as I understand them with all my biases. To me, the increase in chance of getting a franchise QB from Williams and Maye (increase you chances 55% with Williams and 40% with Maye over Howell) are definitely worth passing on a Marvin Harrison, Fashanu, Alt, Bowers, Latu type prospect). Its a closer call with Jayden Daniels. A 10% increase is significant, but at the same time if you ran 10 simulations, you would only get a real benefit 1 out of 10 times from making the move whereas probably 7 or 8 types you are going to get a real good starter cheap by taking the blue chip prospect. But the benefit of having a franchise QB is so great, I can definitely see the argument that its worth it to draft Daniels to get that 10% increase and pass on the blue chip prospect. I give Penix the same chances to be a franchise QB as Howell. Penix is like a half year older than Howell. When they were both starters in 2020 and 2021, Howell was the better player. Penix transferred and has emerged as really good college player the past two seasons, but some of that may just be he is older and more experienced than other QB's. Nix is in a very similar boat to Penix. He is a few months older than Penix and like Penix is either a fourth or fifth year starter this year. Yes he is a very good college player at this point, but I don't know if given his age if that gives him a higher chance of being a franchise QB than Howell. As a reference point, since Marcus is a Packers fan, I would give Jordan Love a 30% chance of developing into a franchise QB. That probably means you pass on everybody but Williams and Maye who they won't be in a position to draft so they are unlikely to pick a QB. As another reference point, I would probably put Byrce Young around that 30% mark at this point. Going into the season, I probably had him around that Drake Maye point of 60%, but his he underperformed a bit what I expected out of his rookie year, maybe slightly lowering my expectations for him. But that is how I am thinking about this issue. The weakness in all of this is that I am just basing it off of reptuation--which does have some meaning--but somebody who has studied these QB and has a better informed opinion would be able to do a better analysis.

I may be getting the Superbowls mixed up because I tend to associate the Superbowl with the season rather than the year the game is actually played in (for example I will think of this upcoming Superbowl as the Superbowl for the 2023 season). There was one Superbowl where the Chiefs were decimated by injuries on the O-Line but managed to get the Superbowl. My point was that elite QB can give you good play behind a bad line but it won't be consistent. Because they give you good play by making plays outside of structure and there is a high variability to that. Elite QB's will give you consistent good play with a good O-Line and will give you inconsistent good play behind a bad line. In terms of the Superbowl I am thinking of that the Chiefs lost here is the quote (but one of the major storylines leading up to the Superbowl was how bad their O-Line situation was).,.. Mahomes spent the game scrambling wildly from the Bucs’ pressure behind an offensive line that was missing four starters — right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who opted out before the season, along with left guard Kelechi Osemele, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and left tackle Eric Fisher, who were lost to injuries.

I don't think he is even paid like a truly elite DT. His deal was 4 years 72 million (18 million per year). Even our own team, Daron Payne dwarfs that at 4 years 90 million (18 million vs. 22.5 million) and at teh very top of the DT market you have Aaron Donald 3 years 95 million and Chris Jones who is essentially on a one year deal worht 25 million.

Yeah I would do it without an y hesitation. That said, I suspect the price would be higher. Probably at least one of our second rounders, but in that hypo of a third rounder, I give it an enthusiastic yes.

Elite QB's can play well behind bad offensive lines but even with an elite QB, their play will have a high variability if they are playing behind a bad line. Due to injuries in 2020, the Chiefs had a bad O-Line by the time of playoffs. Mahomes got them to the Superbowl, but then they only scored 9 points or something like that in the Superbowl. The next year, the Bengals had a below average line and made the Superbowl. They went 10-7 and the offensive was very up and down. Burrow got hot during the playoffs and Mahomes had one of his worst playoffs game ever in the AFC Championship game. Sam Howell is not elite right now and may never be in teh same range as Mahomes or Burrow. I do think improving the O-Line would help him. Unlike other posters, I don't think our O-Line is terrible--it is below average. From listening the PFF podcasts over the last 5 years it has been ingrained in my head that sacks are largely a QB stat (obviously not entirely) and I do think that a lot of the sack issues fall on Howell. That said I think the sack issues would be a lot more manageable if we had a good O-Line.

Throw me in the group of people not comfortable with the Curl and Allen hate. Allen is finishing his 7th season here. He has been very productive. He has been a team leader. He is frustrated. Commanders fans are frustrated too. Because we are looking at a bit of rebuild, it would make sense to trade Allen if you could pick up a significant asset like a second round pick because our timeline and his teammate may no longer matchup, but he has been great for us. By PFF standards this is a down season for Allen. He has a 64 PFF grade this year after having a 80, 85, and 80 grade the previous 3 years. But there are rumors he played through plantar fasciitis this year. Fans turn on players so quickly. Curl is a very solid player for us and by NFL standards he has given us really good play for peanuts because he was a 7th round draft pick. The surplus value on him we have gotten for him for the past 4 years is very high because of the way rookie contracts work. Now he wants to get paid. And I am hoping we will be the team to pay him, but I don't want to overpay, so it just comes down to what the market for Curl is. Like a lot of good safeties in the NFL he is not a splash player but he is very good as a run defender and can serve as a LB and is fairly tight in his coverages. Not a speedster so does have some limitations but very good player who has played very well for us and been at the bottom of our payroll for four years.

I definitely agree that fans exaggerate how bad our O-Line is. Our O-Line is normal bad. Out of 32 teams, I suspect it would rank in that 24-27 type range. Below average, but nothing unusually bad. But because of the amount of sacks we have given up, a lot of fans think its unusually bad. I definitely don't think that is the case.

Thats a tough question. In terms of talent difference I would rank them Fashanu, Alt, then Fuaga. I view Mims as a different sort of prospect. He could be a homerun, but he is the most raw of the prospect, so the chances of a bust or probably higher with him. A bit like Broderick Jones last year who seems to be working out for the Steelers now that he has moved into the starting lineup. My very early take is Fashanu is my number 1 and Alt and Fuaga are pretty close. Alt is the better technician, while Fuaga is the RT who is very physical and will be a solid, but not amazong pass protector, but who is a very good run blocker. If I could pick up extra picks and be sure of getting Fuaga, I would probably do it assuming the extra pick was meaningful (like a 2nd rounder or two third rounders) but its pretty early in the process.

Richardson looked competent which was very promising given how raw he was supposed to be, but saying he looked fantastic is probably too strong. He had a meh PFF grade and a solid, but nothing special 87.3 QB rating, which coincidentally is the exact same rating as Howell so far this year. Richardson's QBR was 46.4 vs. Howell's 49.2. I myself was surprised at how competent Richardson looked, but lets not confuse the year he was having with say the year CJ Stroud is having, which is truly a fantastic year for a rookie QB. Richardson year was viewed as better given the low expectations for him since he was viewed as very raw.

We have been without our starting FS since he was hurt in week 5 (against Chicago). Not that Forrest cannot be upgraded, but when Forrest returns, he'll send Percy Butler to the bench. In terms of Butler, he has been up and down. Some pretty solid weeks, but some pretty bad weeks.

Its funny to see Graham Mertz at 197. A couple years ago SIP liked him very early in the process and I commented that Mertz isn't even a good college football yet even if he does make some nice throw. I think Mertz is a good college player now (he transferred from Wisconsin to Florida), but he actually probably had more hype a few years ago (when he was living off his HS ranking). Bo Nix is a similar case, but the difference between Nix and Mertz is Mertz has had one good season now whereas Nix has put together back to back good seasons. But Nix had two seasons as a starter at Auburn before he transferred where he was not good player yet. Guys definitely do develop in college.

I am going to be the pessimist and predict we draft around 8th or 9th with a 6-11 record. The problem we are going to have is we are going to lose a tiebreaker with most teams with the same record as us.

Listening to Keim, he thinks the major thing Ron can do for the rest of the year that could help is simply be more creative with the D-Line fronts. Keim thinks Del Rio was very vanilla with his defensive fronts and he didn't scheme pressures for the players. It was win your matchup, sometimes you got a 1 on 1 matchup other times double teams but for the most part you got a pressure by winning your matchup. By giving different looks and using more stunts, the D-Line can generate more favorable matchups and possibly even an occasional unblocked pressure.

That can be true. Look at the Vikings this year. Their defense got worse on paper. They lost Zadarius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Patrick Peterson from last year defense. Arguably 3 out of their top 5 players on the 2022 defense and they didn't really add any comparable names. Yet they have improved under Brian Flores. So coordinator does matter.

Mims is the physical specimen of the group at 6'7 340 pounds, good length, and good mobility for his size. But its difficult to say what he is as a player because in 3 years at Georgia including this season he has played a total of 638 snaps including only 231 this season due to injury. He is the most raw of the group, but he has the physical tools to be an all pro, but his floor could be bust.

The tiebreaker with NY is a 50-50 proposition. Denver going on a winning streak has made us vulnerable on that front. We have 12 of the same games as the Giants, then the 2 against each other, which means there are only 3 real differences. They are 1) we played the Bronocos, they played the Raiders. That favors them as Raiders are 5-7 and Bronocos 6-5 2) We played the Bears and they played the Packers. That favors us as the Packers are 5-6 and the Bears 4-8. 3) We played the Falcons and they play the Saints. That is currently a draw as both teams are 5-6. Right now, they

I sure hope we don't throw a lot of money at Devin White. Maybe Tampa Bay is not using him that well, but he is not really a good player for Tampa Bay. He is a splash player. He'll make an occasional splash play because his athleticism is elite, but his run fits and instincts in coverage are very meh. We already have a player somewhat like that in Jamin Davis. If throwing money at Devin White is how this analytical minded front office spends it resources, it will raise questions for me. Brooks and Queen I think are better players than White. But even then I don't know if my move is to throw lots of money towards them. Queen is a good player, but until Roquan Smith got there he was kind of hit or miss. Good one week, struggled the next week. I think having a superstar fellow LB next to him has helped Queen. Brooks is solid, but nothing special. If you can get him for a reasonable price then its a good get, but if you have to pay him big money, I think you are better off getting a more under the radar type LB.

One of those guys does not belong with the others... OT Austin Jackson. PFF says he is having the best season of his four year career and his PFF grade is still only 63. He is a Andrew Wylie type player, low level starter. Every other person on that list is above average starter. There really isn't a single impact Tackle available in free agency this year.

I am used to using the PFF mock draft simulator. They have Umanmeilan as the #53 prospect so I usually pass on him in 2nd and Trotter is 76 (they have his teammate Barrett Carter) so I sometimes grab one of them in the 3rd round. I have no idea which rankings system is better but I am so used the PFF one that I did a double take with some of those picks.

Interesting Kevin Dotson (and Kelvin Beachum) were two guys I proposed trading for back in July or August. The Steelers had signed Isaac Semulo I believe which sent Dotson to the bench despite him being being a mid level starter for the Steelers in 2022. I thought we might be able to get him for a 5th round pick and Shaddiq Charles. The Rams ended up trading a fourth round pick from them and he has a 84 PFF grade. That was a big win for the Rams. With Kelvin Beachum the Cardinals drafted Paris Johnson Jr. They also have DJ Humphries. Kelvin Beachum has been solid enough the past couple years as a starter, a mid level starter but on the higher end of mid level starter but he was 34 so I figured he would be the odd man out of that trio of starters so he could be had for a 4th or 5th round pick. Gettign Beachum allows you to move Wylie to Guard or just move Beachum to Guard. He is only 6'3 (like Leno), but is a little bigger than Leno at 315 pounds and he has an odd build where most of his weight is in his lower half which probably means he would have been solid in pass pro against power (though he is not that mobile in the run game). I feel like either of those moves would have helped the O-Line a good amount. The O-Line problems are Rivera just doing too little and less about the moves not working out. Wylie has played about the level he is being paid at (a low level starter). Same is arguably true for Gates who is being paid even less. Rivera just didn't spend any resources there despite that unit needing help. Two small money signings and a comp 3rd round pick and 4th round pick and the 4th pick is early but looks like it may just have been a miss. In hindsight O'Cyrus Torrence would have been perfect in the second round. He is not what Bieniemy was looking for because he is bigger (340 pounds) and slower, but he is exactly what Howell needs in a guard because he is big, hard to bull rush and creates cleaner pockets in pass pro.

I would take Harrison over Alt. That said, I think we finish 5-12 or 6-11 and have somewhere between the 6th to 10 pick. If we get pick 10, I don't think either Harrison or Alt will be there. If we pick 6 I think Alt may be there, but don't expect Harrison to be there. Long story short, I think its all a hypothetical unlikely to happen.

My take on Del Rio is he is a competent, but mediocre DC. Coming into this season, I would have probably given him a B for the first three seasons here. In each of those seasons, I thought the defense was better than the offense. I think his ultimate demise was when Chris Harris left. The defense he wanted to play this year, the Fangio scheme with a lot of zone match requires more communication amongst the DB's than any other coverage scheme. Harris was a good coach, the type of DB coach you need if you want to run a zone match scheme. I think we downgraded the DB coaching position and the secondary went from solid, especially the second half of last year, to the worst in the league. I think Del Rio was also hurt by being a little vanilla. I am not well versed on x's and o's, but from listening to the beat reporters who said we were pretty vanilla in our pressure looks and listening to podcasts with an analytical bent (NFL podcasts, not on the Commanders specifically), which emphasize the importance of disguising things and giving different looks because you can scheme pressures that way, I think we lost production on the whole by being so vanilla.

I don't know why people are whining that Gruden said he would rank the Chargers job over this job. Having Justin Herbert will make everything easier. Likewise, having Caleb Williams will make everything easier. I agree with what he is saying Plus Gruden was a head coach. He knows how head coach candidates think