philibusters

Penix is 6 month older than Howell and Bo Nix is 9 months older than Howell. I think they are decent prospects, but unlike Caleb Williams and Drake Maye I don't think they are in a better tier of QB prospects than Howell at this point. I'll roll with the one I know.

I am predicting we win in a competitive game, something like 20-13. I think the defensive continues to show strides, albeit against a injury depleted Giants offense.

We have lost 215 sack yards... https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/passing-sacked-yards

I also think Buffalo kind of expected to win without much of a fight. Good teams can get away with that sometimes like Buffalo. Other times they don't get away with it, like Philly this past weekend against the Zach Wilson lead Jets. I think the Chicago game showed that we are not even close to be able to get away with going into a game expecting for the other team to go down without a fight.

I am still optimistic on Forbes. Despite all the struggles, I still think the most likely outcome is he ends up being a solid starter.

I agree with your point (though I wouldn't call Ryan Tannenhill terrible--he is like Daniel Jones, put him in a decent situation and he can be good, but in a bad situation he can be bad--we had the bad luck to play the Titans before their O-Line got decimiated by injuries in the second half of last season). For what its worth we also beat Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott last year in addition to the MNF win against the Eagles. But in terms of your big point about the defensive stats looking good because we played a slightly softer schedule I do agree.

A win always feels good, but this win doesn't complete erase the bad loss against Chicago. Wins against the Giants and Eagles though may restore my former optimism about making the playoffs and putting together a nice season, but right now it still feels like 7-10 or 8-9 season is on deck. I thought the offense looked good the first half. In the second half they got too conservative. Without watching the tape I cannot say what happened, but I feel like this offense should have used the quick passing game more in the second half. Maybe that is what they were trying to do, without seeing the tape, I cannot say for sure, but it felt like we were running more intermediate routes. I would like to see more RPO's, quick pass game, and maybe some rollouts for Howell in the second half. We can work in the run too, but I am not a fan of the run, run, pass. Which can work if you are getting to 3rd and 4 but if you are in 3rd and 8 ins tough. It felt like defense and special teams won the game. I thought the defense played a lot better. We gave up a lot of yards though, I would like to see that improve, but we got a big win. Turnovers make everything look better. I think you cannot press for turnovers because pressing for turnovers means gambling. If you play good defense, especially if you are playing with a lead, turnovers will naturally come and that is what happened today. So I feel better than I did last week, but I am still not optimistic. I felt more optimistic heading into the Bears game coming off back to back losses to the Bills and Eagles. The Bears loss is going to take a while to get over.

I don't have strong opinion but in general I think Mims and Latham are probably guys I would avoid, particularly Mims. They will likely be very good, but I don't know if I think they will good right away. I think we need an instant upgrade to teh O-Line. The PFF podcast compared Mims to Broderick Jones last year his former teammate. A guy who moves well for his size, but who is a little rawer and may not be ready game 1. So with Mims, you might be getting the best physical tools in the class, but if he struggles to see the field out the gate, I feel like it will be a disaster. Likewise, if we play him but he struggles a lot of the gate like Emmanuel Forbes that would be a PR disaster. Long story short, our O-Line is a state where I think taking Fashanu or Alt if they are available is clear the best move because I think they are both immediate upgrades. But where we are picking we might be taking Tackle #4 so at that point the best prospect could be a Mims.

I didn't know anything about that, so I googled it. Apparently it was Aqib Talib's younger brother who killed the youth football coach.

What interesting is Del Rio has run less two high cover shell these past two weeks and has used the safeties more to help against the run which has left Forbes 1 on 1 with no safety, which he has been burnt toast. I don't think Atlanta is the team to bring Forbes back against because their run game is good and we probably will want to use the safeties to help against the run. Which means if he is out there is likely won't have safety help a lot against the Falcons. And teams put their receivers in motion and switch the side they line up on so other than following one receiver teh entire time its difficult to avoid one on one matchups against a team's number 1 receiver.

If I have the fourth pick in the 2021 draft, I am not taking Kyle Pitts. But if I have mid or late first round pick in the 2021 draft and Kyle Pitts is still on the board, even with hindsight I'd take him if that position was a need. He had a 1000 yard receiving season as a rookie with a 80 PFF receiving grade that year. As a round blocker he is meh, as a rookie he was in the high 30's and last year and this season he is in the mid-50's in terms of PFF grade for run blocking. For a wide zone Shanahan style offense he is a great fit because he really fills two roles. He can play TE. The Shanahan offense also uses a big WR with good straight line speed as their slot receiver which is different than what spread and traditional offenses used in the slot which use a quick shifty player. In the Shanahan wide zone offense that slot receiver has to block on the outside zone runs (which is why you want size there) and in terms of routes that receiver usually runs route that require straightline speed, mesh crossers for example. So in a wide zone Shanahan offense in addition to being a TE, he is also the prototypical slot receiver. So if I am sitting as high as 12 or 13 in 2021 and I run a Shanahan Wide Zone offense, I am considering Pitts. His rookie year proved that in the right situation he is worth that pick. Now for us, at 12 or 13 is Brock Bowers worth it? That is debatable. I think he could be, but I understand the argument that even offensive Tackle #4 is a better pick there in a year like the 2024 draft where Tackle is fairly deep.

I agree with that. If we are drafting in the low teens there is a shot Bowers is there because of positional value. Cannot count on it because sometimes team just draft the best player and don't worry about positional value. We thought Bijon Robinson may be available at 16, he went at 8 and Gibbs went at 12. But there is at least a chance you can still get a blue chip player like Bowers at 12 or 13 because of positional value.

I think we beat the Falcons and Giants and things get quiet, but in the end I think we finish 7-10 or 8-9 and Rivera is fired at the end of the season. And I absolutely am fine with not firing Ron Rivera until the end of the season. I think that would be a bad sign if the owner did any impetuous. Let the season play out and unfold how it will, the time to make the move will be this offseason. If the team makes the playoffs that probably buys Rivera another year, but honestly the odds of that happening are maybe like 20%, so its not the most likely outcome.

In fairness to him, its difficult to answer that question without throwing the draft picks under the bus. If he took responsibility and said we messed up and drafted guys who are not as good as we thought, he would be taking responsibility, but he would also be insulting the draft picks, which he cannot really do. He could give an answer with a lot of coach speak about how different guys are in different phases of development, but if the truth is the picks are not as good as they hoped, he really cannot say that because it insults the players.

He is just is a fast processor without great physical tools. He was a four year starter at Iowa St. without a redshirt year. So he instantly was able to process the game at the college level. He kind of leveled off in college. His best statistical season was his sophomore year where he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and had 27 TD's to 9 interceptions. I think teams felt he had leveled off, had relatively low upside because of the lack of physical tools, and just were not interested. That said a lot of his success is just going to a good situation in San Fran. He has the traits Kyle Shanahan likes--fast processing and accurate passer. He is a good system QB.

Chase Young is having a good season. Nothing fantastic, but good. He has a 72.1 PFF grade, 27 pressures and 3 sacks in 4 games (he missed the Arizona game) 6 pressures a game is solid. Interesting his run defense has dipped a bit. In his first three seasons he was a consistently good run defender. This year, he has been meh in that department and its bringing down his grade. He actually has a 82.7 pass rush grade a run defense grade in the low 50'S.

I don't think it will be convincing to you, but 1. College Tape: He started three seasons at Miss St. in the SEC against the best competition in college football. That included starting as a true freshman and he was a good starter all three years and a great starter his last season. 2. He had a strong training camp. I think people hear what they want. One poster said he had had a phenomenal training camp, another said he struggled against the Ravens. I don't think either is true. He was not phenomenal, he had his wins and losses, but he looked like a starter caliber player. In terms of the Ravens, he took his losses, but all DB's take losses in the WR-DB drills. In the 11 v 11 and 7 v. 7 against the Ravens he held his own even though he took some losses. He had a decent preseason and a decent game against the Cardinals to open the season. 3. Listening to the beat reporters, particularly Keim, I think a lot of the issue is just lack of fundamentals. Going back to the Eagles game, Keim broke down his bad plays play by play. A lot of his just better fundamentals. For example one time when he was in man defense, he sneaked a look at the QB and QB snapped the ball when he was taking a peek. By the time Forbes got his head back around the receiver had already got the release on him the receiver wanted. In man to man coverage, there is no need to sneak a peek at the QB. He just needs to get better at the fundamentals. I think his confidence is a bit down, but that will go back up in time. 4. He has some very nice physical tools. He is 6'1 with 32.5 inches arms so he has idea length. He has ideal top speed (4.35). He change of direction is top notch (an advantage of being 170 pounds). Yes he lacks strength and size and that will hurt him, but he does have some elite tools, so he just needs to learn to play to maximize the tools he does have and minimize the tools he lacks.

I am a bit down on Forbes, but compared to the sentiment in this thread, I am part of the Forbes bandwagon. I honestly still think the most likely scenario is he develops into a solid starter. Right now if I went into the hindsight thread, I definitely would not take Forbes, but I do think people are overreacting quite a bit.

My point wasn't that they were similar players. As you point out one was a developmental prospect and one was a first rounder. My point was is that I think how they play and compete in training camp has a rookie has some long term meaning.

In terms of Marvin Harrison, who I think will be gone by the time we draft. He had an impressive game against Maryland yesterday, but I still couldn't help but think at times he didn't get a ton of separation. That said even when he didn't have a ton of separation he still made the catch. Very good player. Feels like the next Devonte Adams to me. Not a freaky athlete but a great route runner with good ability to track the ball and get contested catches. Has better size than Adams. That said who knows if he can ever develop his route running to the levels of Adams, but a safe pick with the upside ceiling of being a top 2 or 3 receiver a few years down the line and the realistic floor of being like a George Pickens.

They say that about some positions every year. Not necessarily these exact positions. Just mean those positions seem relatively strong, maybe best you can expect at those positions in a 3 or 4 year period. Doesn't mean it will a 1 in 30 years type class at those positions. In general the consensus last year was that the class was a bit weak. The consensus this year is the first round will have more depth.

In fairness I don't think we heard how phenomenal Forbes was. What we heard was that much like Jahan Dotson last year, Forbes looked like a day 1 starter. We hard that he was a real competitor and that he did take some losses but got his share of wins. Based on that I was expecting him to say be the same level as St. Juste this year. Hasn't happened. That said I still place a decent amount of meaning in training camp. I wish Forbes was playing better, but I am not near as down on him as others. He runs a 4.35 and has exceptional change of direction (the benefit of being 170 pounds). He also has long arms (32.25 inches). He has two things working against him. His fundamentals are not where they need to be. Further his lack of weight is also a disadvantage at the top of a route when a receiver is trying to get separation. In terms of mentality he is aggressive. A ball hawk. But that does mean he will guess wrong and will have higher variance. Add in his lack of fundamentals and when you get bad variance, he can be a bad player. He needs to get better at the fundamentals. But I still think he will be a good player. I think what we saw in training camp matters. Take a look at Cole Turner. Good training camp as a rookie, looked like a decent option as a backup TE. Then he struggled last season. Now in year 2, he is a solid backup TE.

That is the essence of the NFL. The parity is such that its a week to week league. Which team plays with more emotion and energy and the lucky breaks can swings games. I think a honest objective interpretation is we were a mediocre team to start the year and we are a mediocre team right now. That terrible loss against the Bears doesn't change that even if it was a very difficult game for fans to watch.

Probably not with caveat I would have said the same thing about Justin Fields and that turned out poorly

Probably a second rounder for whereever Bieniemy would go for his next OC gig IF that team needs a QB. With a little bit of bad luck, maybe a third?