El Mexican

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

You're going to be hard pressed to find any serious football person who would put Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, and Goff in even the same country code as guys like Mahomes and Allen, let alone above.

 

Honestly, I feel like you went out and found one of the few stats that show Heinicke as anything but poor and then decided to use that, despite the fact that it literally has Sam Darnold above Patrick Mahomes.

Nah bro, I could give two hoots about TH. He's middle of the pack and nowhere near any of these guys (sadly for us Wentz ranks at the very bottom in this category).

We can slice it another way, though, if you really want to:

YPA with at least 200 pass attemps according to NFL.com

Tua - 8.9

Mahomes - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5

Mariota - 7.4

If you guys have an easy and clear numerical indicator for good QB play I'm all ears. For ME, this is the most telling one.

2 hours ago, Jumbo said:

Seriously?

 

Hey, it's the offseason.

51 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And that’s why you lost me with your theory of YPA.

 

Darnold #2 is a death sentence to the theory.

 

The answer is: it’s no one statistic unless that stat is wins. But even then it’s never isolated. 
 

I think a better stat for QB succsss than YPA is owner win %.

Ok, it's not an infallible theory, but the rest of the list is pretty strong.

Mahomes - 8.1, Purdy - 8.1, Hurts - 8, Jimmy G - 7.9, Tannehill - 7.8, Dalton - 7.6, Goff - 7.6, Josh Allen - 7.6 and Geno - 7.5  

12 hours ago, KDawg said:

The entire premise is flawed very early in your statistical evidence.

 

And that’s where you lost me.

It is?

Data obtained directly from NFL.com, friend.

Those two guys are on top with the minimum of 100 pass attempts.

48 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

Could never tell this was started by a hive guy. 😆

Hey, I try to keep an open mind about future QBs around here.

Either that or I would have lost my mind 20 years ago 😎

48 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

Nicknames 👍...followed closely by their ability to cook a grilled cheese sandwich.

Like our ex-QB now in Minny?

Or was that some baby back ribs?

39 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

There is no one stat.

 

You want a QB who is productive, accurate and constantly makes good choices. This allows him to be a guy who is capable of carrying the weight of a team and be the engine that allows it to function. Your not gonna find that looking at one stat.

Ok but that's a pretty good QB list I gave as an example with YPA.

It's not an exact science, of course, but that's my assumption seeing Howell.

RR is maybe looking for that with him?

There's a lot of discussion around the web about this subject.

From really complex indexes to the 50 year-old passer rating system the NFL uses.

I've always viewed either Yards per Attempt (YPA) or Yards per Completion (YPC) as the most relevant indicator of a good QB.

The higher the number the more probability we have of a balanced game-plan since our QB is passing the right amount of times and doing some damage on the opposing D.

No dinks and doinks that serve no purpose but to artificially inflate the total completion %. 

Case in point with QBs who had at least 100 pass attempts during 2022:

Tua T led the League with 8.9 YPA

Sam Darnold - 8.2

Mahomes - 8.1

Purdy - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Josh Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5  

TH finished about middle of the pack with 7.2 YPA and Wentz was one of the worst at 6.4.

It's a simple stat and I firmly believe if we want to have any success around here we should take it seriously

6 hours ago, Rocky21 said:

Fitztragic was a free agent signing - not a trade.  

Same difference man, the current braintrust has shown little talent selecting the most important position in the League.

7 hours ago, woodpecker said:

 

champ + a 2 for Portis 

At least Portis was very productive here. Gibbs really grinded him out.

Champ is Champ, but Portis was an undisputed started for us for long stretch.

1 hour ago, KWilliamsAWinfield said:

Wentz trade is the 2nd worst trade in franchise history in my book, Paul Krause trade will always be #1 as worst trade in franchise history

Well, it's up there with the Rivera logic that some bearded old QB could start the season for us.

He lasted less than a game.

This FO should avoid any QB decision and just let TH battle it out with the semi rook Howell.

6 hours ago, CommanderCarson said:

...
 

I can confidently say this is the most talented young roster we’ve had in town in 20 plus years and that’s a big reason bienemy took the job. 

Well...we still need a better OL and some key LB. Oh, and the QB position is still very shaky.

Howell may be the next Brady of the next Leaf. We just don't know.

More importantly, what's the backup plan if he doesn't cut it?

We all saw last year what happens when you're forced to roll with a QB that divides the fan base.

On 1/25/2023 at 6:57 PM, mistertim said:

 

Not going to rehash the stuff above this as it's already been discussed ad nauseam re: Heini/Wentz.

 

The W-L thing has been rehashed before as well, but I think it applies to the QB position in general so it can be addressed without discussing those guys specifically. IMO W-L record is one of the least objective ways to look at a QB situation because there are so many factors that go into winning or losing games. You can have a QB play like crap and win a game or a QB play like a star and still lose.

 

I'm not saying W-L is meaningless but it has to be taken with a big grain of salt and is only a small part of the QB analysis equation. If we went purely on W-L records, then the Texans should have benched Deshaun Watson during the 2020 season. They didn't. Why? Because he was playing at an All-Pro level and was clearly not the reason they were losing games.

I agree man, it's just that the play by both of our guys was soooo irregular it's hard to find any semblance of comparison to more established franchises.

Seems like this has gone for a while now and the playoffs only exacerbate our situation. Most of the final teams left in contention find ways to make their QBs shine.

On 1/25/2023 at 6:43 PM, Conn said:

Disclaimer: I think this is fine, I’m not trying to gatekeep football chat. But it cries out for commentary. 
 

Don’t you think the above should cause you to pause a moment before bulling ahead with full confidence in your own opinion? You’re touting the old QB winz argument that’s been disproven a million times, simplifying a very complex subject to the point that the conversation is pointless, and in addition you don’t know who a ton of QBs across the league are? 
 

Again, that’s fine. But maybe this isn’t the topic to have strong feelings about. 

Yep, I'll be honest here: I only care about WSH football.

I tend to zone out what goes around the League and only focus on what's important to me as a fan of 35+ years.

Those other QBs you mentioned only begin to start being relevant if they ever arrive here.

I wasn't trying to be cheeky. They are simply not on my radar.

19 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

You can be a sucky QB and still be part of a team that wins games. It's happened several times before.

 

When you say the "real problem" was RR evaluating QB incorrectly, what exactly do you mean? He wasn't fair enough to Heinicke? He overestimated Wentz? He didn't give Howell enough of a shot?

 

 

Hey! I resemble that remark!

He just overestimated Wentz. That's my main point.

Poof. There goes the season.

It's very very hard to win by sheer luck in this League. Same with a sucky QB.

Yet, if our sucky QB won more games for us than the other guy how much is actually his poor play and how much is the overall suckiness of the entire team and organizaction?

This will be a long offseason. 

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I see Mod suggestions go over your head higher than the ability to evaluate analytics.

 

 

Protect your Neck bro. Livin' dangerously

I suggest we return to the actual W-L record of each QB and go from there instead of endless arguments over subjective factors.

The season is over. We can look back with more objectivity at our QB situation now.

19 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

No "he" didn't win those games. Think. We can argue about how much he contributed to the win. Those wins were team wins. We can also argue about which units, play callers, and any of the individual players had more or less to do with a given win. Is this too complicated for those of a certain leaning here? It sure seems so.

 

All of it been laid out clearly and accurately by the vast majority of longtime solid football posters here. It's unfortunate how poorly some chosen positions are presented.

As you said, it's almost impossible to pin down the exact contribution each of the variables here (players and especially TH) contributed to an overall win.

By that same logic, how much of Wentz's loses were team loses of just due to poor QB play? We just don't know.

We can only know the final W-L record of each of our QBs. TH is clearly better. Which is not saying a lot, but that's our reality.

19 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

Technically not all was true...

Marcus Marriotta

Matt Ryan

Malik Willis

Mike White

Davis Mills

Baker Mayfield

Zach Wilson

And lo and behold Carson Wentz were suckier this year according to the almighty internet.

 

This is still fun though...right guys?

I have no idea who most of those gentlemen are.

Sad thing is everyone knew Wentz sucked last year before arriving here.

Everybody except our top brass. Mistakes were made. 

18 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Somebody had to hand the ball off 40 times a game I guess.

 

Dude won games for us like the McGuire Twins won the Tour de France... meaning they didn't.

 

 

Look man, we can only gauge the W-L record of Wentz vs TH (Howell's lone game doesn't count).

Objectively we won more games with TH. 

We can argue all day about it but that's the sad brutal reality.

9 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

Heinieke sucked. He's on of the suckiest players to ever line up at the position in the NFL.

 

...

All you said is true, yet he won the most games for us this season. No way around it.

The real problem this season was RR evaluating incorrectly (again) our starting QB.

Too many wasted opportunities.

Ahhh just go with Howell and keep TH as a backup.

Draft another QB in the mid-rounds of this year's lottery and boom! Bob's your uncle.

6 hours ago, method man said:

Scott’s entire career was built by his dad and his dad’s friends.
 

Just realized that Scott played at UNLV. The coach in the team was John Robinson. Guess who coached for John for a decade at USC and the Rams? Norv

 

EDIT: Scott’s first college/pro job was Pitt in 2008. Coach then was Dave Wannstedt who coached w Norv at USC and on the Cowboys

 

Besides his high school OC job, he has literally not gotten a job on his own merit

So he a NepoBaby?

1 hour ago, veteranskinsfan said:

We need either a need a Head Coach with a strong offense background which Rivera lacks OR we need a new offensive coordinator who can put the quarterback in situations where he can succeed via the right formations and play calls.  Right now I have no faith in Turner or Rivera.  

This is basically my exact same feeling.

Rivera has always been a defensive-minded coach. The man has problems on O and selecting his QB.

Sadly, Turner is way too irregular for this team.

How many 7 yard quick outs did I see this season on 3rd and 12? Too many to count.

I saw this again on Sunday with Howell.

Just move on.

Plot twist!

We enter the paloffs as the 8th seed and win the SB with TH at the helm.

2 hours ago, Dan T. said:

 

Oh please.  His whole mindset was he knew they controlled their own destiny.  Win two and we're in. 

 

Criticize him all you want for not pulling Wentz.  But don't chalk it up to Ron "not playing to win."

If he did play to win we have the worst coach in the NFL.

The result of the game speaks on its own.

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

It was basically the exact same thing that happened with heinicke a week before, he was awful in the first then led a nice touchdown drive that made it difficult to make the switch and then proceeded to stink again. 

At least now there is no doubt at all that wentz is not the answer and before there was that tiny miniscule possibility. 

This whole season has been a tortuous process of elimination. 

15 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I waffled on this one and I'm still not sure how i feel about it.

On one hand it certainly feels like something he should be aware of because it's plastered all over every form of media on the planet and we all knew every possible scenario.

On the other hand it's really not important information for him to know, so long as he's completely submerged in the gameplan and winning that should be all that matters.

Coaches say one game at a time constantly and their focus is so much different than ours that it's not overly surprising he didn't know.

All of which makes the decision of keeping Wentz in the game after a very bad first half all the more confusing.

It really didn't seem he was playing to win. 

38 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

I expect Howell to suck. Suck hard. Its just what Rookie QBs do. Especially 5th rounders who arent playing for Kyle Shanahan.

 

Thats fine too. Hopefully theres some good to build on with some optimism that maybe he can become a long term back up for this team. 

 

Yes, but starting vs. Dallas seems kinda brutal.

Hopefully the rook has some flashes here and there.

11 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

#2 2022 Ron Rivera. With the season on the line he benches the guy who has saved the season and had the team playing inspired football to put in the guy who was 2-4 and looks horrible for all but 2 QTRs in 6 games and didn't even realize the team could be eliminated with a loss. And even if fans and other experts argued for that call, I struggle to believe that there were not signs in practice that Wentz was going to be this bad. At a min it was clear at half time the team needed a spark and to save the season a move should have been made 

 

#1- 2012 Mike Shanahan. Wild card weekend. After breaking out to a 14-0 lead against the Seahawks, it was clear RG3 was hurt. Cousins had played that year and showed he was more the capable. But despite the entire country seeing as plan as day that RG3 needed to come out of the game, MS waiting until he had no choice, and by then it was too late 

 

Taking other nominations!

The Shanny decision was ego-driven. It will stay at #1 for a long time due to its terrible ramifications for the entire organization.

This recent RR decision seems disconnected from ego. More of a different reality sort of vision by HC.

It was a gamble and we lost.

Now having said that, he should have returned to Heine after halftime. The entire season was on the line!

4 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

...the obvious post-game question for Rivera will be--- why the hell didn't you play Howell earlier in the season?

He's covered. Howell is a rookie and no one expects another Brady story.

If he lights it up that would actually be a good problem here for once.

18 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I don't want to spend too much time defending Wentz because he made me look stupid AF today.

 

Having said that, that last pick was him trying to save the world because our defense collapsed from the injuries and we were forced into catchup mode.

 

That's why I'm not buying we win even with Taylor playing, it's not like he would've been able to keep up and outscore Cleveland today.

True. And depressing.

34 minutes ago, YourDreamin said:

The fact that Heinicke is objectively a better QB option than Wentz tells you both everything you need to know about Wentz and the coaching staff who made the decision to start Wentz.

This.

I mean, it's not like Wentz didn't get a decent shot.

We all saw the guy sucked for a long stretch of the season and again today.