Conn

Ah I see what you mean. I guess it becomes less interesting and compelling the further down the list of reaches you get from the top, right? The further down the list you get the less extreme the “reach”, and the more room for error and noise you introduce into the data. Since the entire point of the list is to look at whether the NFL is correct or not when they majorly “reach” compared to the Consensus Big Board. Now that you mention it, I’d also be interested in doubling the list and seeing the results (and also having the size of the reach next to each name, like if a guy was -85 vs the consensus board, or towards the bottom of the list if it was only -20 or something).

it’s all love, I find you fun to poke at after our many shared years here but I respect your self-awareness, and you’re generally on a quest for correctness that I ultimately enjoy. I am a little surprised! And pleased! I think this is a perfectly rational view on the situation. Your name is back to being accurate

The top 30 biggest reaches are decidedly not arbitrary, they are literally just the largest reaches compared to the on the record Consensus Big Board. The pro bowl thing, maybe, but just look at that list of players. It’s pretty easy to look at it and see there aren’t many starters represented. When NFL teams have made large reaches in the last decade (according to the consensus big board) those picks have largely not been good starters. Definitely some role players and a few JAG long term starters. Some injury casualties. But by and large when the NFL bets against the consensus they aren’t hitting big.

Special Conn request: read this whole thing carefully before becoming enraged and beginning to formulate your response. I know this is a difficult topic for you this goes against everything you believe: Research shows that out of the 30 biggest “reaches” vs. the Consensus Big Board in the last decade, only 2 players have made a pro bowl. Mitch Morse was one, can’t remember the other. Saw this earlier: Exact rankings are not ever right, but averaged out over dozens and dozens of big boards, the draftnik community at large does a pretty good job tiering players and predicting how the NFL values these guys in the draft, and how they will do: Now some of this info obviously is leaked from the NFL, so there’s some crossover. Anyways, it’s very difficult to predict hits and “steals” based on the Consensus Big Board—just like it is for NFL teams—but it’s actually very easy to measure and predict large “reaches” based on the Consensus Big Board…and those players almost never succeed. So there’s obviously something to it. Again, when an NFL team overdrafts a guy massively compared to the Consensus Big Board in the last decade, only twice has that player even become a pro bowler (starter, alternate, etc). I know this goes against everything you believe about amateur and media draftniks, consensus rankings, and what a “reach” or a “steal” even is—you think those are fake concepts because you don’t accept the value of an agreed-upon community big board…but the reality is that numbers show the Consensus Big Board does a pretty remarkable job at predicting what players are actually reaches, and those players almost never go on to be good or elite. This is related but not the same…the research isn’t perfect but shows that “reaches” are real but “steals” really aren’t, over a large sample size. Which makes sense because a reach only requires one team (the one who drafted them “early”) being wrong to bust. Very likely. A falling player actually being a steal requires many teams to be wrong for the player to “live up” to the previous rankings—much less likely. Kind of simple when you think of it that way. Basically, you’re wrong about the value and accuracy of a consensus big board, you’re wrong about the concept of reaches against perceived value, etc. I can’t keep listing things you’re wrong about obviously because this post would never end, but you understand. I would like to know what you think about all this after you’ve digested it (and after you’ve finished patching the hole you head-butted in the drywall upon reading it, of course).

I thought Braeden Daniels had NFL athleticism but needed time to build NFL strength? Is he just a lost cause do we think Edit: how the hell did this conversation end up happening in the slot DB thread lol

Hartman to MRJ completions against future car salesmen in the 4th quarter of preseason games are gonna have hearts fluttering here

Holy ****, to convince this kid to come here after he had a top-30 visit with NYG is impressive. He’s got a good chance to make the roster as an outside corner

We signed a good Center and a potentially good Guard in FA, so that’s not accurate.

The OL needs help, it’s not good. It’s also: 1. Not as bad as people think 2. It’s now at least marginally better than it was last season 3. And it was never as bad as Howell and poor playcalling made it look last season 4. Because, does no one remember how much better it briefly looked with Brissett? Similar to the 2013 OL under RG3 and then Cousins. 5. And our offensive staff, player personnel, and playcalling really can’t get worse—I’d even go as far as to say we can expect it to easily be better. 6. Which will help accommodate the remaining weakness in the OL, because remember, this post has never been about claiming the OL is actually good, or claiming it’s not a problem. 7. Just that it’s not AS much of a season-destroying code red as people are making it out to be. 8. Because better personnel is already achieved. Better QB play is achievable, and should be expected*. And better playcalling is achievable, and should be expected** *no offense to Howell as a young, growing player but he was one of the worst QB’s in the league last year, efficiency-wise. **because it really couldn’t get worse than what EB was doing last season. You don’t even need to like or believe in Kliff to assume this happens, because EB called a historically stupid offense, on top of it being designed poorly. NOTE: I still very much hope some decent veteran OT’s are released for us to try to sign. Again, I am not arguing things are fine or even close to ideal. Simply saying that Daniels is not guaranteed to die and derail our season before it begins like people are acting. The talent is already improved, even if marginally. The scheme and play selection can help a ton. Daniels being talented as hell can help a ton, even baking in his status as a rookie. Even as it stands right now, this will not be a historically bad OL or something—it wasn’t even as bad last year as people think when you take into account the playcalling and QB play.

lol the craziest Cowboys fans actually think that because Quinn already had his eye on our job opening (which was obvious, to be fair), he purposely tanked their gameplan in the playoffs so he could get to interviewing ASAP rather than being at a disadvantage against other candidates

Interesting, Allbright (not a draftnik type but he dabbles like people here and knows people who know) had Tyler Owens on his “my guy” list before the draft. Wonder what he saw in him, sounds like @Skinsinparadisewasn’t super impressed at a quick glance. Assuming the raw athleticism at the combine was probably what Allbright was betting on, idk. Most of the rest of the list is good so I was surprised

We’ve gotta hope for some veteran cuts after rookie mini camps

This isn’t really about Sinnott, but I dislike that players who don’t have all their measurables on the record can have a full RAS score. You can’t really compare his RAS to LaPorta’s because LaPorta’s takes into account his insane 3-cone and SS. If you don’t have agility scores, idk how you can have a fair composite RAS. At best you should have a weight-adjusted Speed Score or something. Anyways, love Sinnott, loved the pick, think he’ll be great. It’s not about him, just a gripe I have with the RAS charts.

It’s a small towel in the shape of a jersey lol

NTTAWWT

State of the franchise according to Jahan Dotson:

Sorry man you’re just getting to the point where any old random media thing can trigger you and send you over the edge. That’s probably the least douchey and scumbaggy thing Sharp has ever posted lol. It’s literally just a visual way to chart what teams spent—in terms of round of draft pick and # of draft picks—on offense vs defense this year. And asking if there are any interesting trends that anyone sees. It’s literally just information with no editorializing and you’re losing your mind.

Evan Silvia’s Draft Grades: [VoR look away] https://establishtherun.com/silva-2024-nfc-draft-grades/ FWIW he said on twitter in response to someone that he doesn’t ever remember grading a Washington draft as highly Washington Commanders 1 (2). LSU QB Jayden Daniels 2 (36). Illinois DT Jer’Zhan Newton 2 (50). Michigan CB Mike Sainristil 2 (53). Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott 3 (67). TCU OG Brandon Coleman 3 (100). Rice WR Luke McCaffrey 5 (139). Temple LB Jordan Magee 5 (161). Washington S Dominique Hampton 7 (222). Notre Dame EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste Overview: Washington’s new regime knocked its initial picks out of the park, tabbing 2023’s NCAA leader in both yards per pass attempt (11.7) and yards per rushing attempt (8.4) at No. 2, then ending Newton’s mini-slide at 36. Newton was this draft’s second-best three-technique interior pass rusher behind Byron Murphy. The Commanders added a second-round pick (No. 53) by dropping from No. 40 to No. 50, then stole shutdown slot CB Sainristil and two-way TE Sinnott, a plus blocker with top-tier athleticism and hands. Extensively experienced at both left tackle and left guard, Coleman is ideally built at 6-foot-5, 316 with vine-like 35-inch arms and massive 10 ¾-inch hands. McCaffrey profiles as a plus-sized slot receiver at 6-foot-2, 198 with 4.46 speed. A lightweight linebacker at 6-foot-2, 232, Magee was extremely productive in college with 235 career tackles and eight sacks and is athletic enough to potentially develop into a pass-coverage asset. Rookie GM Adam Peters should be proud of his first haul. Washington Grade: A- Rest of the NFCE: Dallas Grade: C “For a team long on roster needs, this was an acceptable if largely unremarkable draft haul.“ New York Grade: B “I’m estimating the G-Men got 4 ½ contributors from this draft, and two high-impact ones.” Philadelphia Grade: A- “Roseman has mastered the art of attacking immediate needs while staying committed to building for the future.“

Little glimpse into what other teams are doing. Sounds like a cross between our “Commander tag” that Newmark talked about in his post-draft presser, and our “Commander Caucus” thing where the scouts and coaches are allowed to pound the table for one guy going into day 3

Hadn’t heard about the medical red flags with Mahogany

He mentioned in his presser that CMC advocated for it lol but said it was unnecessary, he was high on their board

This is probably fair tbh

This post should qualify as hate speech it offends me so much