Conn

Tress Way’s been great during our down years. How much does that mean to me? Not that much, hate to say. A Punter can’t make a jersey number “significant” to me. It’s just not possible. Maybe performing at an elite level during a Super Bowl run would do it, I doubt we find out. Even #5 I still associate more with the horrors of McNabb than I do with Way’s very good punting.

I think @Llevronwas just referencing how every action Daniels was taking before the draft was being interpreted as him wanting to go elsewhere because he hated us lol, so the fact that he finally has a public appearance without the Commanders hat he’s been constantly seen in since draft night, that must mean he’s back to hating us!! And none of us are talking about it!!1! lol if my interpretation is right, it just didn’t land bc it requires realizing he’s referencing those two stupid ongoing twitter jokes, for his to make sense edit: I see my phone didn’t update the thread and we are now 3 hours past this event and it’s already been talked to death lol

I think there’s a non-zero chance that Peters, coming from SF, along with Kingsbury think there is a viable way to account for a mediocre at best OL via scheme: Daniels releasing the ball quickly (and using RB’s and TE’s heavily) can take a lot of the pressure off of himself. We’ve seen it before—Cousins coming in when the OL looked terrible in 2013, Brissett last year.

You just repeated what I said, we are in agreement on the story lol You may want to delete this, the new sticky from Jumbo specifies not to talk about the looks of player’s wives, girlfriends, etc. FYI. Trying to keep things family friendly. I tried to keep my commentary about the Dax Milne/Zach Wilson purely academic for that reason lol

They need to not let this kid touch the field until his foot is 100%. 105% even. I don’t want to be going into next offseason saying “and don’t forget about Newton, we haven’t seen him in the NFL yet but that’s like having an extra 1st rounder added to the roster this year!)

Pretty cool look behind the scenes. Hope we eventually get some of this regarding our trade back with the Eagles. Things that seem clear from this: 1. Sinnott was our only guy at that pick we had to have 2. Damn the Jets loved Corley, and it was really tough for them to get anyone to move back to 72 from the mid-50’s. Shows how much value teams placed on that area of the draft, where we managed to get up to 53 from 78 due to our 40 —> 50 trade back. Makes that deal look even more slick from Peters, that was an extremely coveted tier of players.

In the context of an experienced and long-tenured scout, that would tend to make me think that he didn’t “love” anyone at QB at that time. I don’t think guys like him fall in love that easily before they have a chance to dig in, especially given how process-oriented we know he is.

He already told that part of the story lol, the rest of it is that he called his wife and told her what a stud Peters was

That’s awesome. That’s the 3-cone I wanted to see

Are you sure? This is the post that had me saying that:

NFL loves Jayden Daniels I’d assume from this clip that Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay or Kevin O’Connell especially does lol

The OL isn’t good. The QB play has been bad here for most of 30 years, lots of the bad OL play has actually been 50% due to bad QB play. Including last year. The OL isn’t horrible.

A entire year of Jayden Daniels’ development has a tangible value to us imo. Potentially waiting until next offseason could slow down his development. Maybe it won’t! But the more comfortable he is, the more help he has, the earlier, the better imo. We need to get him to a skill, production, and leadership level—while he’s on his rookie contract—that allows us to compete in the playoffs. And do well enough there in the next 4-5 years that he’s worth paying top of market money to at the end of his rookie contract. So investing in (and even overpaying) weapons now to get him to that point where he can carry us later, when his weapons will necessarily take up less cap space as he eventually take up more of it—it’s hard to put a price on that imo. If he doesn’t develop into a monster QB, that’s bad for us. There’s a tangible value to juicing his development even if it costs us in the short term. The short term is when we can afford it anyways, though, looking at our roster and cap space. I wonder if the disconnect here is just how good some of us think Aiyuk is. He’s not JJ but he’s basically a top-10 WR in the league imo. There’s also a unique modifier here in Daniels’ close relationship with Aiyuk. That’s a fairly rare opportunity to support your franchise QB (who is known to be more of a lead by example guy than a rah rah guy) and get one of his guys in there to support him (and hopefully help him put up video game numbers). I wouldn’t overweight it in the calculus of the situation but it’s definitely worth mentioning.

On Aiyuk: I’d give SF a 2025 3rd and 2026 4th. Make the 2026 pick conditional on production and getting an extension done. I’d happily pay market value for him on an extension—for a 3 or 4 year deal, not longer. We have plenty of cap for the next few years and nobody to spend it on unless we go hog wild in FA next year after Daniels shows us what he is as a rookie. Very few people currently on the roster will deserve or earn that money in that window. Most of our promising players are either too old to be seriously paid again in that window or too young to be seriously paid in that window. We’re really in a spot right now to get Jayden some pieces to accelerate his development and act as force multipliers for the value of that #2 pick we just used. People balking at the idea of using that cap space on a vet right now aren’t really thinking it through all the way, imo. Other than Cosmi (who should be extended now btw) who is really on track to need that earmarked cap space in the next few years? Nobody we just drafted will be eligible for new money until going into their fourth season. The value I place on giving Daniels the best chance to develop on his rookie contract is immense. I’d also look into OT help, for those who think prioritizing WR is dumb. It’s not a zero sum game, necessarily.

Ah I see what you mean. I guess it becomes less interesting and compelling the further down the list of reaches you get from the top, right? The further down the list you get the less extreme the “reach”, and the more room for error and noise you introduce into the data. Since the entire point of the list is to look at whether the NFL is correct or not when they majorly “reach” compared to the Consensus Big Board. Now that you mention it, I’d also be interested in doubling the list and seeing the results (and also having the size of the reach next to each name, like if a guy was -85 vs the consensus board, or towards the bottom of the list if it was only -20 or something).

it’s all love, I find you fun to poke at after our many shared years here but I respect your self-awareness, and you’re generally on a quest for correctness that I ultimately enjoy. I am a little surprised! And pleased! I think this is a perfectly rational view on the situation. Your name is back to being accurate

The top 30 biggest reaches are decidedly not arbitrary, they are literally just the largest reaches compared to the on the record Consensus Big Board. The pro bowl thing, maybe, but just look at that list of players. It’s pretty easy to look at it and see there aren’t many starters represented. When NFL teams have made large reaches in the last decade (according to the consensus big board) those picks have largely not been good starters. Definitely some role players and a few JAG long term starters. Some injury casualties. But by and large when the NFL bets against the consensus they aren’t hitting big.

Special Conn request: read this whole thing carefully before becoming enraged and beginning to formulate your response. I know this is a difficult topic for you this goes against everything you believe: Research shows that out of the 30 biggest “reaches” vs. the Consensus Big Board in the last decade, only 2 players have made a pro bowl. Mitch Morse was one, can’t remember the other. Saw this earlier: Exact rankings are not ever right, but averaged out over dozens and dozens of big boards, the draftnik community at large does a pretty good job tiering players and predicting how the NFL values these guys in the draft, and how they will do: Now some of this info obviously is leaked from the NFL, so there’s some crossover. Anyways, it’s very difficult to predict hits and “steals” based on the Consensus Big Board—just like it is for NFL teams—but it’s actually very easy to measure and predict large “reaches” based on the Consensus Big Board…and those players almost never succeed. So there’s obviously something to it. Again, when an NFL team overdrafts a guy massively compared to the Consensus Big Board in the last decade, only twice has that player even become a pro bowler (starter, alternate, etc). I know this goes against everything you believe about amateur and media draftniks, consensus rankings, and what a “reach” or a “steal” even is—you think those are fake concepts because you don’t accept the value of an agreed-upon community big board…but the reality is that numbers show the Consensus Big Board does a pretty remarkable job at predicting what players are actually reaches, and those players almost never go on to be good or elite. This is related but not the same…the research isn’t perfect but shows that “reaches” are real but “steals” really aren’t, over a large sample size. Which makes sense because a reach only requires one team (the one who drafted them “early”) being wrong to bust. Very likely. A falling player actually being a steal requires many teams to be wrong for the player to “live up” to the previous rankings—much less likely. Kind of simple when you think of it that way. Basically, you’re wrong about the value and accuracy of a consensus big board, you’re wrong about the concept of reaches against perceived value, etc. I can’t keep listing things you’re wrong about obviously because this post would never end, but you understand. I would like to know what you think about all this after you’ve digested it (and after you’ve finished patching the hole you head-butted in the drywall upon reading it, of course).

I thought Braeden Daniels had NFL athleticism but needed time to build NFL strength? Is he just a lost cause do we think Edit: how the hell did this conversation end up happening in the slot DB thread lol

Hartman to MRJ completions against future car salesmen in the 4th quarter of preseason games are gonna have hearts fluttering here

Holy ****, to convince this kid to come here after he had a top-30 visit with NYG is impressive. He’s got a good chance to make the roster as an outside corner

We signed a good Center and a potentially good Guard in FA, so that’s not accurate.