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Gurgeh

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Everything posted by Gurgeh

  1. I think you could call the peace that came afterwards a missed opportunity. We didn't make things worse, but we could have made things better. In terms of regional influence, the people who really did benefit from the invasion of Iraq was Iran, as their most powerful and hostile neighbor ended up under their influence. It wasn't hard to foresee that being the outcome, but the depressing thing about that war is our leaders didn't seem to have thought about what would happen afterwards, other than good PR footage of a victory parade. Ukraine will be a different peace, probably more of a ceasefire. Putin likes to leave conflicts unresolved, it leeches resources away from countries he views as hostile, and he knows countries with ongoing border issues aren't allowed into NATO. When the fighting ends, we're going to have to arm Ukraine to the teeth, because Putin will rebuild his army as fast as he can and try again, no matter what agreements he signs. He's laid out his world view: Ukraine never existed, it's always been a part of Russia, NATO needs to be pushed back to the 1980s membership with eastern Europe acknowledging Russia as their protector, and Russia and China (and we all know who would hold the power in that partnership) opposing the US around the world.
  2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/13/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-retreat-in-bakhmut-highlights-shortage-of-credible-combat-units-say-uk-officials Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding reporting from Kyiv. There are unconfirmed reports that another plane and helicopter has crashed, in what appears to be a disastrous day for Russian aviation. Moscow Telegram channels reported that an SU-35 warplane had been shot down too, together with a second Mi8 helicopter. Another military helicopter crashed on Friday in Crimea. It was unclear whether the two aircraft and two helicopters were downed on Saturday because of friendly fire, or if the Ukrainians targeted them with missiles.
  3. Yeah that's been rumored for a while now. It's the limited range export version, so it'll reach about twice the range of their HIMARS. Just knowing Ukraine has them will make the Russians pull critical targets further back from the front lines. However it's also air-launched, which makes things a little risky for the Ukrainian air force to use close to the front lines: ""Our biggest enemy is Russian Su-35 fighter jets," says another MiG-29 pilot with the call sign Juice. "We know positions of [Russian] air defence, we know their ranges. It's quite predictable, so we can calculate how long we can stay [inside their zone]. But in the case of fighter jets, they are mobile. They have a good air picture and they know when we're flying to the front lines. Russian air patrols can detect a jet's take-off deep inside the territory of Ukraine. Their R-37M missiles can hit an aerial target at a distance of 150-200km (93-124 miles) ..."Our jets don't have a system to warn about [Russian rocket] launches," says a pilot of an Su-25 attack jet with the call sign Pumba. "It's all visual-based. If you see them, then you just try to escape by firing off heat traps and manoeuvring." Russia's air superiority means that Ukraine can afford only a limited deployment of its military aviation close to the front line, which can have a major impact on the success of any future counter-offensive operations. According to Juice, they carry out up to 20 times fewer sorties than the Russian Air Force." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461405
  4. You'd have to add the Chinese being in on it as well, as one of their lunar missions took pictures of some of the Apollo landing sites.
  5. Former head of Roscosmos now thinks NASA did not land on the Moon During his four-year tenure at Roscosmos, Rogozin wrote, he asked his leadership team to look into whether NASA had actually landed a dozen astronauts on the Moon in the late 1960s and early 1970s. After all, Rogozin reasoned, "It was not clear to me how the United States, at that level of technological development of the '60s of the last century, did what they still cannot do now?" In response to these queries, Rogozin wrote, he received angry responses from academicians and "fans" of NASA at Roscosmos who did not want to undermine cooperation with the US space agency on the International Space Station. As evidence for the landing, Rogozin claims he only received a copy of a book by cosmonaut Alexei Leonov. Accordingly, at the end of this "investigation," Rogozin said he does not believe Americans landed on the Moon but rather that they had succeeded in infiltrating the "establishment" of the Russian space program. ...[in fact] the Russians observed the lunar landing in real time from the ground—and even had a spacecraft in orbit around the Moon. The Luna 15 spacecraft was in orbit around the Moon at the time Apollo 11 arrived there and when Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin went down to the surface. There were even some backchannel discussions between NASA and the Soviet space program to ensure that the two spacecraft did not interfere with communications between the Moon and Earth. In short, the Soviets were watching the American Moon landing closely and knew fully well what NASA had accomplished. https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/05/former-head-of-roscosmos-now-thinks-nasa-did-not-land-on-the-moon/
  6. It's been noticeable that in the most recent wave of Russian missile and drone attacks nothing seems to have got through the defences around Khiv. Meanwhile Ukraine has imposed a two day curfew in Kherson. In the context of reports of them having made progress across the river, this could be significant, although a major assault across such a wide river would be extremely risky. ‘This will be different’: Kherson’s ruined villages come to life with counteroffensive preparation | Ukraine | The Guardian The evidence that more war is coming to Ukraine – and soon – is supplied by the roads, full of military traffic. Troop transports and newly supplied vehicles from western allies are moving, apparently confirming the statements of senior officials that the counteroffensive will come imminently and that they are “almost ready”. ...Along the southern Dnipro river around Kherson, Ukrainian artillery batteries have stepped up targeting of Russian positions on the far side of the river, while in a number of locations Russian military correspondents and bloggers say they have seen reconnaissance-in-force assaults designed to probe for weak spots. ...Oleksandra Viernenko, aged 76, is aware of what any counteroffensive is likely to involve for many Ukrainians still under occupation. Examining her ruined flat in a village near the town of Snihurivka, abandoned by Russian forces in the last offensive, Oleksandra is moved to tears. “At my age this is a hard thing. I still don’t know how I am going to live, but every day I pray to God, and I pray for liberation.”
  7. Gruelling cat and mouse fight along Ukrainian river poised to escalate | Ukraine | The Guardian Least accessible of the frontlines, details of the war on the river have emerged from brief snippets from Ukrainian army press officers and Russian military bloggers, as well as material posted on social media channels and accounts supplied by local residents. What is clear is that fighting for the Dnipro delta’s islands, marshes and inlets has been very different from the gruelling battles on the eastern front. Here, combatants have moved in ribs (rigid inflatable boats) with powerful engines. On Velykyi Potomkin, the biggest island, which sits opposite Kherson’s Ostriv or Island district, Ukrainian troops have been slowly pushing forward, their progress tracked by geolocation. Once a pleasant spot where people from the city would visit their dachas or go to picnic, the island splits the river into two smaller branches to the immediate west of Kherson, making it a strategically important stepping stone. These days it is a battlefield. The smaller islands – some of which are no more than specks on the river – matter because they can be used as bases for firing mortars on the city. Every scrap of land is bitterly contested.
  8. Not many QBs have been taken in the second round the last few years. I think if Hooker's there in the second, he'll be there in the third.
  9. I believe you're right that the offensive can't be launched from there for the reasons you state, plus the fact that the whole area there is just marshland. Any heavy vehicles would be restricted to a handful of roads even assuming they could be landed. After the Ukrainians retook the west bank of the river and commentators were asking "what next?", the river delta area was described as a "special forces playground" suitable for small boat raids and elite infantry. However, for much the same reasons it will be difficult for the Russians to use their usual tactics of mass bombardment and expendable waves of conscripts to clear away the Ukrainians. Likewise the supply lines to their own troops stationed there are now threatened. Do they stick it out, or pull back and surrender the marsh? Apart from forcing the Russians to relocate defenses, the Ukrainians might be able to use small to medium size drones launched from that area to reach further behind Russian lines than before, and not just for strikes but for reconnaissance.
  10. As always it's going to depend on who's available at our spot that someone else needs, and it's not a high pick. And we aren't trading with three of the teams below us in the first round. Maybe if one of the teams at the bottom would jump up to get Bijan to compete now, and we offer better terms than the Steelers.
  11. You're right, but IIRC the knock on Howell was his footwork and that became a bigger deal when he struggled in his last year. Coaches always say they can improve footwork, so maybe spending most of a year on the sidelines has allowed Howell to get the work in.
  12. Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro river south of Kherson. The land there is marsh with few roads, ideal for infiltration but not easy at all for vehicles. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City). This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area. Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that Russian forces do not control some Dnipro River delta islands southwest of Kherson City as of April 22, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on these islands. Some milbloggers complained that the slow rate of Russian artillery fire due to the over-centralization of the Russian military command allowed Ukrainian forces to land on the east bank.
  13. Both sides have been using tanks as artillery in the war, and yes tanks aren't really meant for that. IIRC the biggest issue is tank barrels wear out much faster than barrels specifically designed for artillery - I think they might get only a couple of hundred rounds from a tank compared to a couple thousand for an artillery barrel. Replacing barrels is one of those under-reported problems that both sides have. but especially the Russians because of their heavy use of artillery.
  14. While you'd think the Ukrainians would want every modern-ish tank they could get their hands on, they probably don't have many parts for T-90As (they had none before the war AFAIK, and have "captured or destroyed" fifty of them from the Russians). I would imagine the US has been given access to T90As in better shape than this one, so it's probably been sold and the cash put towards buying artillery shells. Early on in the war the Ukrainians captured several intact and up to date air defence command and control vehicles. You can bet those won't have been left at any truck stops.
  15. Yeah and apparently there's more out there. Leak of secret US defense papers could be ‘tip of the iceberg’, report says | US national security | The Guardian Several Discord users told Bellingcat that the original source of the leak was a server used only by 20 people, which went by a variety of different names, most frequently Thug Shaker Central. It was set up by followers of a popular YouTuber called Oxide, who posts videos about weapons and other military paraphernalia. The sources said that the first leaks on Thug Shaker Central dated back to last October, and involved far more documents than have so far come to light. The most recent leaked documents are dated as recently as early March. The leaker allegedly was acting as the server’s administrator and set up a channel within Thug Shaker Central called “Bear vs Pig”, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The documents did not spread beyond Thug Shaker Central until late February, when one of the users of the “Bear vs Pig” channel, a teenager who went by the name Lucca, started posting 107 of the photographed documents on a more widely used server .. and as to who leaked it, there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who have access to that level of information, but considering it was leaked to a gaming group not even large enough to be called a fringe element, it shouldn't be too hard to track them down.
  16. The Glazers could teach Dan a thing or two about taking money from a team you own "Since the Glazers’ arrival, [Manchester] United has in effect paid out somewhere in the region of $1.2 billion for the privilege of being owned by the family: a billion or so in interest payments, and a couple of hundred million in dividends, the majority of them paid to the Glazers themselves." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/sports/soccer/manchester-united-glazers.html
  17. Steven Knight is writing the film now? "I hereby create the new Jedi (by) Order of the Peaky Blinders"
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