Gurgeh

Well it seems he has another option now https://tass.com/society/1601237?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com " Russian businessman and member of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party Viktor Bout has sent a wire to former US President Donald Trump, inviting him to Russia to lead "a rebellion against the globalists." "Today, I sent a telegram to former US President Donald Trump. First of all, I believe that his life is in danger. The trial that has begun in New York will not end with Donald Trump just getting convicted and losing his chance at the presidency," the Russian said after sending the wire. According to Bout, he also invites Trump to Russia and offers him protection and political asylum so that he is able to lead "a rebellion against the globalists and save the American people." (and yes, this "Russian businessman" is the arms dealer that was swapped for Brittney Griner)

Dates are always the weak link in Putin's lies. There's no evidence the Russians have even started work on nuclear weapons storage facilities in Belarus. The one they started building in Kaliningrad seven years ago isn't finished yet. Of course, Russians being Russians with regard to nuclear safety, they might just put some tactical warheads in a bunker and call it done. I wouldn't call it a major escalation though - Putin mentions nukes every chance he gets, because there's nothing else left for him to threaten the west with.

It seems that the Russian offensive is slowing down on the ground, just as the weather conditions are about to become more favorable to attacking forces. I guess they felt compelled to attack early because they knew Western support was due to ramp up around March - April time, and of course politics played a part with various generals eager to please Putin by taking more territory. They can always conscript more troops, but the last set of conscripts were short of equipment, so who knows what a new set of 200,000 would be armed with. The heavy missile bombardments now come every 4 weeks or so, as their production of cruise missiles is down to 40 per month. We don't know how much the defense of Bakhmut has taken out of the Ukrainian army. We have to hope and assume that they've been sensible about this, judging it to be the best way of blunting the Russian attack for the least cost. I think the difficulty that Ukraine faces in going on the attack is that it's going to be difficult to surprise the Russians. A battalion of Leopard and Challenger tanks is going to stick out among the Soviet-era hardware of the Ukrainian army. It's conceivable that the limited amount of Western armor could be used as a decoy, drawing Russian forces away from the real point of attack.

Here's China's "independently developed" Wing Loong drone which looks completely unlike any other drone you may have seen.

After the "accidental" firing of that missile the Brits let the Russians know that their unarmed reconnaissance aircraft might now be accompanied by definitely armed fighter escorts. There haven't been any more accidents since. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pentagon had made some similar warnings. Hopefully they managed to hit the destruct button on the drone itself before it hit the water so the Russians (and the Iranians when the Russians hand it over) won't find too much out that they don't already know.

There's an in-depth look at how to meet Ukraine's needs for artillery ammunition on Perun's youtube channel. I'll put the link below - the guy does excellent work but it's not exactly light listening, he goes into a lot of detail. The short version of it is the West can meet Ukraine's ammunition requirements, providing that governments are willing to prioritise supplying Ukraine now, rather than restocking the the West's own supplies of ammunition while the war is going on. He also points out that Western and Central Europe produce more artillery ammunition than the US does, and that Asia-Pacific (especially South Korea) produces more ammunition than either the US or Europe. The trick is to use South Korea to restock Western supplies while the US and Europe funnel their ramped-up production to Ukraine. There are contracts to be signed and production to be increased, but it is all doable, providing Western governments want to do it.

In the years before the invasion Russia built up a massive national fund that it's using to finance it's own debts. That fund has effectively taken the place of Western markets that are blocked by sanctions. In October 2022, the fund stood at $171 billion, of which about $120 billion was still available to the Russians. It's estimated that the Russians are withdrawing about $50 billion a year from the fund, which tells you how much of an impact the war and sanctions are having, because as had been pointed out, they are still making plenty of money from oil and gas exports, and despite that income they still need tens of billions more cash. However, some easy maths tells us they have money to pay for their war for at least two more years. The bigger effect on the Russian economy will come later. Whole sectors of their industry are going to have to pivot to new markets and find new sources of spare parts. It's hard to see access to Western markets becoming much easier without some changes at the top of the Russian government, And of course they've lost tens of thousands of young and no-so-young men, both in action and in those able to flee the country before conscription.

From the link below: Bakhmut has become a “killing zone” that is probably highly challenging for Russia’s Wagner mercenary forces trying to continue their assault westward, the UK Ministry of Defence has said. Its latest intelligence update said that over the past four days, Wagner Group forces had taken control of most of eastern Bakhmut, while Ukrainian forces held its west and had demolished key bridges over the Bakhmutka River, “which now marks the front line”. With Ukrainian units able to fire from fortified buildings to the west, this area has become a killing zone, likely making it highly challenging for Wagner forces attempting to continue their frontal assault westwards. However, the Ukrainian force and their supply lines to the west remain vulnerable to the continued Russian attempts to outflank the defenders from the north and south.

The best dressed drummer award goes to

Away from Bakhmut https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/russian-officers-refuse-fight-bakhmut-vuhledar-ukraine_uk_6406f95be4b0e45e2f907450 Ukrainian officials told newspaper the Kyiv Post that senior Russian officers who were previously an elite part of the Moscow’s forces, have rejected orders to continue attacking the Ukrainian town of of Vuhledar. Allegedly, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet has suffered around 300 casualties a day over the last three weeks. This Russian marine brigade was originally a leading part of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine last February, but since then, they’ve been torn apart again and again on the battlefield by their opponents. A think tank, The Institute for the Study of War, believes that the entire battalion has been rebuilt around seven times over the last year, with poorly equipped conscripts filling in the gaps. Two units – the Steppe and Tiger Cossack Battalion – have also reportedly refused to take part, adding to the ongoing idea that Russian troops are demoralised and struggling. It all comes after Russia allegedly lost around 130 tanks and armoured vehicles in the ongoing conflict around Vuhledar.

What's interesting is the Russians don't believe the Ukrainians did it, and normally they are more than willing to blame Ukraine for everything. Or maybe the Russians are thinking that it couldn't have been done without some Western help.

The Ukrainians have been systematically blowing bridges behind Bakhmut which could either be prudence or preparation for a withdrawal, and they've had plenty of time to create a fresh line of defences. On the other hand they're apparently inflicting a lot of casualties on the Russian military by holding on to the city. Some estimates have the Russian casualties at 5:1 compared to Ukraine, which seems high until you factor in the Russian tactics of just throwing waves of infantry forward to overwhelm the defenders. The weather is also starting to change, with the ground thawing and turning into a treacherous mudbath making it difficult for both sides to bring up fresh equipment. It's not a good time to be pressing large-scale assaults; think back to around this time last year where the Russians created those long traffic jams because their poorly-maintained vehicles were unable to cope with the conditions off-road.

IIRC a lot of Blue Origin folks were brought (or bought) from old space companies, and brought the old space "take as long as you can, as long as you get paid" work culture with them. Bezos is less than happy about it, given the pace of development at SpaceX, but it is literally rocket science so his options are limited.

After these latest revelations, this would be me if I was bidding for the team

IIRC the US said a couple of weeks ago that they'd be sending GLSDB, while there's rumors the UK may have sent some of it's air launched cruise missiles, with the Poles managing to attach them to Ukrainian Su-24's, similar to the work they did with HARM missiles. Either way the Ukrainians aren't going to tell anyone what they're using.

I think you've just identified one of the reasons why Dan keeps failing. He takes the petty option over the smart option every time.

XFL here we come! A whole new competition for Dan to fail at.

Somewhat off-topic, but interesting in respect of how sports are run (and AFAIK the EPL is about half the size in revenue of the NFL) Football regulator: UK government confirms new independent body - BBC Sport "The main purposes of the proposed new regulator will be: Stopping English clubs from joining closed-shop competitions, which are judged to harm the domestic game Preventing a repeat of financial failings seen at numerous clubs, notably the collapses of Bury and Macclesfield Introducing a more stringent owners' and directors' test to protect clubs and fans Giving fans power to stop owners changing a club's name, badge and traditional kit colours Ensuring a fair distribution of money filters down the English football pyramid from the Premier League"

There's an unhealthy-looking bunch of half a dozen guys who protest every Thursday outside the local council offices that the covid vaccine makes men impotent. I started a conversation with one of them to explain that the so-called Chinese spy balloons were actually built by Bill Gates to spread the virus. I think the protestor was a little worried that someone might be crazier than he was.