mistertim

I'm really trying to figure out what the deal is with our offense. We seem to move the ball well. Heinicke accurate and efficient, some plays get made, running game working pretty well, good 3rd down conversion rate. But we never seem to be able to put up much in terms of points. Raiders offense has been pretty stagnant. It feels like we should be up by 14 or 21 points by now. This seems to be a trend. It feels like we should have more points but for some reason we just don't put many up.

I guess that's technically a penalty but I hate those ticky tack roughing the passer when it was just a clean hit to be honest.

That was an absoluely insane catch

If a QB has a below average arm, he basically has to have elite timing on those out routes. It does look like Heinicke's timing has gotten a bit better, but I can still tell they don't have much mustard on them so even with improved timing those are still pretty close. There haven't been the same dropped interceptions as earlier but DBs are still basically right there when the pass gets to the receiver usually. But as I said, it seems that recently Turner has put in far fewer of those kinds of passes and others that are iffy with a below average arm and instead has done much more short and intermediate between the numbers stuff. That's definitely smart to do, but it's also a reality that the play calling and game planning is probably being somewhat limited by Heinicke's arm.

I mean...I'll totally give dude an A for creativity. Unfortunately he gets an F for common sense. Did he really think nobody would notice? Medical professional giving vaccine: "Hey, this arm feels kind of...fake" Dude: "Oh, I ate paint chips as a kid" Medical professional giving vaccine: "......" Dude: "I ate lots of them" Medical professional giving vaccine: "Well, I think that would definitely explain quite a bit of your actual behavior, but not the rubber arm"

Yeah sorry we kinda went rogue and off topic there. I blame Jumbo.

True, but in large scale production datacenter networks there is no IGP. It's pure BGP. If it were a corporate or backbone production network you'd have an IGP as well and you'd definitely be right.

@Thinking SkinsHonestly I don't really look at deep passes in general as a marker of arm strength or how far he can throw it. Pretty much any QB can heave a rainbow 40 or 50 yards downfield. I usually prefer to watch small window sideline and out route throws to see how much zip and/or float is on them. To me that's a much better indicator of arm talent/strength. IMO that's an area where Heinicke struggles. His sideline and outside the number throws on out breaking routes were pretty consistently a bit late and lacking drive. That led to a lot of pass breakups and almost interceptions (and to at least two incredible adjustment catches by Terry). That said, his deep balls do have a lot of loft on them at times. Not all of them, but there have been some that literally looked like punts. Again on several of those he's been absolutely bailed out by Terry (that dude is so damn good). That's not necessarily me indicting Heinicke as not good, just acknowledging what his apparent weaknesses are. On shorter inside the number throws he's been absolute money. And it seems to me in the last few games that Turner has been somewhat limiting those out and sideline routes a bit, and focusing more on short and intermediate inside the numbers, which is smart. You want to game plan to your QB's strengths.

I just don't fine mediocrity exciting. Being 7-9 or 8-8 isn't exciting. Being a perennial Super Bowl contender is exciting. And the only current surefire way to that is having an elite QB. Sure there can be some exciting moments in an 8-8 season but they pretty much never actually go anywhere. It's like going on tons of dates and constantly getting to first or second base but never actually getting laid. And yes, of course it's possible for that middle of the road QB to get to a SB or even win one. But it's very unlikely and by far the exception. It also basically never happens more than once. It's a one and done thing. Flacco, Foles, Jimmy G, Goff, Kaep. All of those guys got to the big game once and never really sniffed it again. That's been my whole point with this entire conversation (in general, not just with you): yeah you might get super lucky and get to a SB with a mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast, but it's extremely unlikely, and you're never going to get there again. If you want to be in the mix for a championship year in and year out over a long period of time, you have to have a top QB. A mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast/defense will get you a 2-3 year window. An elite QB will get you a 10-15 year window. I prefer to keep trying for the latter.

IMO these guys are basically QB purgatory. Guys like Carr, Garropolo, Goff, Mayfield, etc. They're guys who are in that 15-20ish range and who are just good enough and have enough moments to give the team hope that they can turn the corner and become top tier, so they hold on to them for years. But the eventual reality is usually that they stay in that same range. Which is basically just good enough to get you enough wins to not be in a position to draft a top QB prospect but probably not good enough to win you a Super Bowl. Personally I'd rather have a horrible bust than a 15-20 guy, because at least then you know for sure that the dude sucks and should be jettisoned and you can move on and draft another guy. That's why I wasn't really upset about Haskins (that and the fact that I wasn't a fan of drafting him anyway). We realized quickly that he was awful and cut ties quickly. I like many aspects of Heinicke's game, and he seems like a really good dude, but honestly that's one of my worries with him. That he'll basically be one of those 15-20 range QB purgatory guys where we end up as a perennial 7 or 8 win team with little to no chance of a SB title.

No kidding! @Fresh8686's plants look like freakin sour patch kids! Thanks for the advice. I'm probably worrying too much, but it's my first grow and it's pretty obvious something is off and it seemed to happen so fast. I think my soil PH is ok. I PH my water to around 6.5 and also did a runoff test of it when I watered a few days ago and it was around 6.4 or so which I think should be fine for nute uptake. I think the unfortunate likelihood is that in my concern about giving too many nutrients and causing burn I inadvertently went in the opposite direction by not giving enough once the Fox Farms soil mix I'm using was depleted and they needed more P and K for flowering support. My understanding is that soil is usually is good for 4 or 5 weeks without external nutrients but I went up to 7 or so. Partially it was because the plants were looking ok and I figured if it ain't broke don't fix it. Live and learn! I already have some nice new seeds for my next grow so I can apply my lessons learned to that. As you noted, these NLs are not far from harvest. I'll need to get a decent look at the trichomes but I'm guessing another 2 weeks max. I'm hoping I can sort out this phosphorus deficiency (assuming that's the actual problem) soon so the buds can have enough nutrients to get fatter and denser. As they are now they're not going to win any Cannabis Cups, but they're not too shabby for a first grow I suppose.

I mean...ok. But that feels a bit like roller skates on the ole' goalposts. But either way, I really don't think anyone here is saying Heinicke can't play in the NFL. It's clear that he can. I know I've said so numerous times. The main question now is what is his upper limit and is that upper limit good enough to call him the future of your franchise? I have some doubts but I'm still waiting for the rest of the season to unfold before making an evaluation on that.

Sure, practicing with the 1st teamers is very important if you're going to potentially be starting. But even the practice squad gives you the experience of NFL speed vs college speed. And that's one of the biggest differences between the two...the speed of the game. I'm not saying he's not pretty new to starting and having much live game experience, but he's nowhere near a true rookie as he's been in the league for several years and had a chance to practice in it for several years.

Why would they go after a mid round rookie if they're looking for an upgrade? They already have a mid level guy in Heinicke. History shows that mid round QBs very very rarely work out. If they want an upgrade they should be serious about it and try to get the best QB they can. That's what SF did. They had a decent QB in Jimmy G but they knew they wanted an upgrade and moved way up in order to get their guy. And there's about a .00001% chance of Wilson or Rodgers coming here. So that's not a thing. I do agree about Matt Ryan and Carr. Given his age I don't think Ryan is really an upgrade over Heinicke and while Carr is probably an upgrade, I think he's only a slight one at this point so probably not worth the money or draft capital to get him. We'd be going from a cheap 15-20 range QB to an expensive 10-15 range guy. Not worth it.

Network architect here. I almost exclusively recommend point to point EBGP routing with IPv6 and 4 byte ASNs for large scale datacenter fabric underlays instead of OSPF or IBGP peering with loopback interfaces. ECMP with BGP makes loopback peering redundant and OSPF is just stupid and doesn't scale. Oh, and I got the Pfizer booster.

Eh, he'd need to understand that it's a business and that's a business decision. He's going to need thick skin if he's going to be an NFL QB. I'd look at us drafting a QB a bit like the SF and Jimmy G situation. Jimmy G is a decent QB and they even went to a SB with him, but he has limited upside so they knew they wanted an upgrade and they went out and spent and arm and a leg for a guy with potentially elite upside. I think this would possibly be a similar situation.

The buds are still fattening up decently, but you can see the phosphorus deficiency in the purple discoloration of the leaves. There are also some leaves getting dark spots and curling up on another plant which is apparently another sign of phosphorus deficiency. At first I thought it was nute burn, but I'd hardly been giving them much at all so I knew that wasn't really the issue. Hopefully I can fix the deficiency pretty quickly. Planning on giving them a good dose of Flower Stacker when I water tomorrow morning. So hopefully I'll have a decent idea of how much it helped in the next couple of days.

Um, if that's what you're going on, Heinicke is 5-9 as a starter. And can we please stop pretending that Heinicke is a rookie? His game experience is limited but he's been in the NFL for years so he's had way more time to get used to the speed of the game than an actual rookie.

He's playing at a very high level. He's #2 in the NFL in total QBR, he's thrown 27 TDs to 9 INTs with a 66.5 completion percentage.

Was about to post most of the same stuff but @goskins10beat me to it. It's not hard to see that Ron realizes the need for a franchise QB. I'm guessing Turner is even more adamant about it, albeit more behind closed doors as he's not the HC. Sure, Ron also said it could be possible to have more pieces in place first, but he clearly understands how important a franchise QB is to a winning team nowadays. He certainly didn't say "Yeah our plan is that we can pound the rock, control the clock, have a stingy defense, and have a QB who doesn't make too many mistakes and we'll be home free." He obviously realizes how important the QB position is in today's game.

Thanks, yeah I was surprised at how fast it came on, though it's possible that they showed some minor signs before now and I just didn't notice because I'm such a novice. Apparently phosphorus deficiency can be amplified in high light environments and I have a fairly powerful LED for a 2x4 tent so perhaps that's why it advanced so rapidly once it hit a certain threshold. I've read good stuff about Flower Stacker so hopefully it does the trick. I'd thought about possibly using dry amendments but those are just too slow acting and I want to try and halt the problem as soon as possible.

I'm not "ready to move on" from Taylor at the moment. I've liked some things I've seen from him but still have questions. And it could end up that I like him enough and am ok with him being the starter but I still would want an upgrade. WFT may very well feel that way too. SF felt ok with Jimmy G but clearly they felt they could get an upgrade so they went hard after Trey Lance. The Chiefs were winning with Alex Smith and still decided to get an upgrade and moved up for Mahomes. And yes you can build a team with a big time supporting cast, dominant defense, and a game manager QB. And if your running game and defense and game manager are good enough you'll probably have about a 2-3 year window to win a SB because stellar supporting casts simply can't be kept together for long nowadays. Ground and pound and controlling the clock and the Joe Gibbs method was 30 years ago. The game has changed. Pretty much every single NFL coach recognizes and admits that. Hell, Rivera is an old school defensive coach and he readily admits that these days you have to have that top franchise QB to be a contender year in and year out. As far as trying the flashy QB thing for 20 years, the problem there isn't that we've been trying, it's that we haven't hit on one. That doesn't mean you just give up and stop. Having a top QB is how you become a long term perennial contender now and every team knows it. So teams keep trying until they find one. Some get luckier than others. We've had ****ty luck, but hopefully that will change at some point in the near future and we'll be a relevant team for the next 10+ years.

Ok, do you think his trade value is a 1st rounder? That's what the gist of the discussion was regarding @Thinking Skinsclaiming he thought TH was as good as Stafford, who netted a 1st rounder plus. And who is "writing off" Heinicke? Disagreeing about him being as good a QB as Matt Stafford is not "writing him off." I think the jury is still out on him. He's played well the last few games but he's had an up and down season. He can be exciting at times but I think you may be overblowing that a bit. Maybe because of his personality? The truth is he's much more of a game manager at the moment than a big time playmaker. Which isn't necessarily a terrible thing. You can win with a game manager, a good running game, and a good defense. But you're unlikely to be a perennial contender that way. If we end up in a conference game, cool. That's not how I'm evaluating Heinicke. I'm evaluating his in game performances. If we end up in the playoffs and/or a conference game and it's because TH has been killing it and throwing a ton of TDs, that's awesome. That will tell me that he may actually end up as a top 10 kind of guy and we may have finally found out QB. If we get in and he's doing ok but mostly doing enough to not lose or cost the team the game, then I'll still be kind of meh on him. I'd be ok with keeping him as a starter next year but I'd still be looking for an upgrade.

@Fresh8686Those are looking great. Unfortunately I'm dealing with what I believe is a pretty bad phosphorus deficiency in my plants at the moment so I'm trying to remedy that with some 0-7-5 Flower Stacker. It's wild how quickly it happened too. They were looking fine a week ago and now are noticeably having some major issues. Maybe I waited for too long to start adding external nutes and was relying on my soil for too long in the worry of causing nutrient burn. Hopefully this Flower Stacker will help. I'm probably about 2-3 weeks away from harvest so hopefully that will give them time to rebound. The buds are still looking decent for the most part but leaves are definitely showing deficiency.

No, I don't have NFL GM or coaches on speed dial and I don't sit in on their meetings. But tell me honestly...do you truly think anyone has offered a 1st round pick for Taylor Heinicke? I know you really dig him (and I do like him in general as well) but in your heart of hearts can you seriously tell me you think it's likely that that happened? And if it did we turned it down? If our FO truly thought Heinicke was the future of this franchise they would have said so many times over by now. But most of what they've said is how important it is to find your franchise QB and getting an upgrade. Maybe Heinicke will change their minds, but it feels like that's likely to be an uphill battle. And sure, people overpay for QBs. Maybe the Rams overpaid for Stafford. But he's playing at a borderline All-Pro level right now. And I'd say GMs and coaches, while they'll overpay some (just due to positional value of QBs), do know more about QBs than most people on a message board. And both the WFT and Rams coaches and FOs thought Stafford was good enough to offer a 1st round pick and more for him. And anyway, I'm not the one who really brought up Stafford in general. He was on the list that @Thinking Skinsput out there and then claimed that Heinicke might be just as good a QB. I found that very dubious and explained why.