mistertim

One thing that drives me nuts is how there's rarely any sort of mea culpa when they're wrong where they admit it and own it. Most of them just sweep the bad predictions under the rug like they never happened and then go right back to loudly proclaiming that they know exactly which QBs in this class will be studs and which will be duds. Not all of them, but most of them.

He also hated Herbert and had Jacob Eason as his #2 QB right behind Burrow and Herbert as his #5. He actually said some of the same stuff about Herbert as he's saying about Maye.

Merril Hoge is an entertainer now, not a football analyst. He comes in extra hot with the most acerbic and know-it-all takes, and it's basically just for clicks and views. Anyone who questions Maye's ability to stay healthy when running as a big concern and who then turns around and says he'd definitely take Daniels instead, is clearly just throwing **** at the wall and trying to turn heads his way.

The only way we'll know anything in advance is if someone inside the FO leaks it. And so far they've been very good about letting no information at all get out from what I can tell. So I think there's a huge likelihood that we won't know anything until the pick is made.

@Skinsinparadisewhere exactly does the Daniels take end and the Maye take begin?

I resent that. Don't try to pigeonhole me. I'm plenty stupid.

Yeah, agreed. You can't discount the power of confirmation bias and groupthink. It seems like Daniels has somehow made it into the mock draft collective unconscious as some sort of "well duh" fit for us, but then they say things to support it that don't really seem to have all that much basis in fact. Like the Kingsbury aspect. They have no idea what flavor of his offense he'll run and whether he actually wants a QB who's going to run a whole lot vs a guy who will buy time with his legs but much more often make an off platform throw down the field after breaking the pocket. *shrug*

I think this is assuming that it's our organization sending false signals or trying to manipulate things, but that doesn't generally seem to be the case. Our FO is apparently being super tight lipped and aren't showing even a hint of their cards. The Daniels stuff is all coming from sports writers and reporters who are either giving their opinion or saying what they've heard as far as Maye vs Daniels preference from other non-Commanders league sources. So if there's a bunch of manipulation and smokescreen stuff happening, it would be other teams trying to do it, not us.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Pats trade down with Maye or Daniels there, unless they really have their eyes on only one and really aren't interested in the other. Even if they like McCarthy there's no way for them to know that he'll still be available at 6. Does anyone really think they're going to go into this season with nobody but Brissett at QB? Can you imagine how absolutely insane we'd go if that happened here? Yeah, I think the Giants would have to offer them something truly insane to get them to even think about it.

I know some have disagreed with this take, but I still think it's valid to say that most coaches are also naturally likely to tend more towards shorter term thinking vs a GM. Which is natural. The more wins they can manage to rack up fast the more likely they are to keep their job.

I mean...ok, sure it's non-zero. But so is a black hole passing by the earth and destroying it in the middle of the draft. At the end of the day, the final decision is for GMAP to make. He'll take everyone else's opinion into account, but he's ultimately in charge of the draft. So I think it's almost impossible that there would truly be a "deadlock" unless GMAP himself is truly 100% torn between Maye and Daniels, which I think is extremely unlikely.

Even if you're right, are you really going to split hairs over 952 vs 1000? Seems like an odd hill to die on.

Yes the talk of trading back can be dismissed completely because it's not happening. The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pick, and there's no reason whatsoever to think that. They haven't really even bothered to put up a smokescreen.

It's not happening. Just give it up please.

Loons gonna loon.

Nobody is paying the cost to trade up to #2 for a WR. Especially in such a stacked WR class where you have, at minimum, 3 elite blue chip prospects at the position without a ton of difference in their quality. The Cards will wait and see who falls to them. 98% chance Harrison is still there when they pick anyway, as they'll know QBs are probably going 1, 2, and 3. Even if something nuts did happen and some loon gave up a king's ransom to move to 3 for Harrison there are still 2 elite WR prospects left. This is a pure fantasy.

Dude, nobody is going to give that much up for a WR when he's almost certainly going to slip past 3 anyway. If someone trades up to 2 it would be for a QB. We're not trading back; it would be so dumb and such a huge risk because we'd then be out of control of our own destiny. We're staying at 2. Can we please stop with that silliness and get back to the regular silliness of debating between Maye and Daniels?

We're almost certainly not getting Maye or Daniels if we move down 2 or 3 spots. Even when one of them slips to 3, someone else will leapfrog us. This obsession some people have with trading back while we're in a prime position to pick up an elite blue chip QB prospect for the first time in over 10 years (and without giving up a king's ransom to move up) is utterly baffling.

That's fine, though I think the lack of injury could partially be due to being behind such a dominant OL and not getting hit very often. He got hit several times in the championship vs Michigan and was limping by the end of the game. So yeah I have serious doubts about him remaining healthy behind a non-dominant OL.

Penix may have a higher floor (though part of that is having played for 6 years in college) but I think his ceiling is definitely lower too. Then you have the age issue (he's almost 24) as well as the massive injury history and the fact that he was behind the best OL in the nation and fell apart once he was against a team that was able to get consistent pressure on him in the championship game. Trading back while having access to more talented prospects who are younger (especially Maye) and with more upside would be nonsensical. Pass.

I assume that below 9.5 aDOT was an average of all seasons, right? In 2023 Daniels had an aDOT of 10.5 with Maye at 11.0.

Dilfer had next to nothing to do with getting to or winning that SB. He threw for 12 TDs and 11 INTs that season for ****s sake. And he was so awesome that the Ravens immediately let him go after winning a SB with him as their QB.

If we go by his numbers, then Maye would simply be the better pick than Daniels, not just safer. Better because he has both a higher chance of not completely busting but also a higher ceiling (likelihood of being a stud).

I think it really depends on how you define upside and what traits you look at or look for when analyzing it.

Real rumor, but still questionable and quite possibly just bull****. https://www.essentiallysports.com/nfl-ncaa-active-news-draft-rumors-is-jayden-daniels-at-odds-with-commanders-gm-adam-peters/