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Everything posted by mistertim
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No, they aren't. That's just a perception based on what you're reading here and other places at this point in the draft process and as a team that will be picking a QB at #2. There's always going to be more scrutiny about negatives in that situation. All of these top guys have massive positives, but the negatives will always be focused on in this specific circumstance. This is a top notch QB class. Any of the top 3 would almost certainly be the #1 overall pick in most drafts.
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Michigan was known for having a team that focused on the running game and defense. An elite passing QB just seems like an odd fit for that, from both sides. Odd for the QB in question to choose to go to a school where he'd know that his passing wouldn't be featured much. And odd for the school because they also know they don't pass all that much.
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If we draft Daniels I'll be very disappointed on draft day, and think the pick was a mistake, but then the next day I'll shift to fully supporting him and hoping I'm wrong. I think most Maye advocates feel the same way. And the "uber athletic" running type QB is nothing new. There have been some over the last 20 years. Vick, Cam, RG3, Lamar, Richardson. But most teams prefer pocket passers first, and none of those guys won anything or had especially long careers. So "about to break through" is a bit misleading.
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Agreed. I think Maye's "inaccuracy" gets overblown because he'll miss so big at times and on short/simple throws. So people focus on those and how off they were and ignore the tons of passes (many of them difficult throws) that were right on point. Sort of like the people who watched Maye's pro day and ragged on him for missing wildly on two throws while ignoring the other 70+ that he nailed.
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And I'm leery of QBs who didn't have to throw many 2nd level tight window balls or with much anticipation in college. Those things are incredibly important in the NFL and Daniels hasn't shown the ability to do them consistently. Doesn't mean he can't, but it's still a concern. So they both have issues throwing the football. Maye's footwork is inconsistent and can get sloppy but he has tons of tape of him making those tight window 2nd level and anticipation throws. Daniels has very good and consistent footwork but lacks much tape of making those throws. They both have plenty to work on. (Like pretty much every college QB coming into the NFL).
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Maye actually has many similarities to Allen and Herbert. Slightly smaller than both, but similar athleticism and running ability, arm strength is close. Neither is anything close to Lamar, who is a 4.3 guy. Allen and Herbert are both around 4.7 guys which is probably where Maye is. Maye is more highly touted coming out than either Allen or Herbert and will be drafted higher. Doesn't mean he'll be as good as them in the NFL, but it still has some meaning as far as his potential. You like Daniels, which is fine. But pretending that Maye is crap and doesn't have any top notch comparisons in the NFL isn't very realistic.
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Mariota is much more likely to use his legs to extend plays and then make off platform throws vs immediately take off. That's Maye, not Daniels. Daniels has an extremely high percentage of times where he just runs after being pressured and breaking the pocket. And Daniels has just as many issues that could cause him to need to sit as well. Mostly lack of throwing many tight window 2nd level and anticipation throws in college, as well as his propensity for running so soon after seeing pressure, which could be disastrous in the NFL.
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I'm actually not all that surprised that O'Sullivan is higher on JD than Maye. I've watched many of his videos over the years and he is very into proper and consistent footwork and mechanics. On one hand it's cool because I've learned a lot more about how important footwork can be and how the upper and lower body connect, etc. On the other hand, IMO sometimes focusing so much on that can make him a little myopic to other traits. He'll definitely point out big time traits that guys have and like them (arm, ability to scramble, off platform throws) but I think at the end of the day he still really gives a lot more weight to the whole footwork thing than most other aspects. And right now JD has cleaner and more consistent footwork so him giving JD the edge makes sense for the lens he tends to look through.
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IMO Simms isn't a football analyst now, he's basically an internet sports shock jock. Every year he comes out with some off the wall extreme take on one major prospect or another, and I think it's purely for clicks. He's mostly just an entertainer who needs people to keep watching and listening to him.
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You really think Schefter is somehow the golden child who, for some reason and unlike all others, has been granted access to decision makers in our FO? He's doing the same thing as everyone else. Just making guesses based on his hunches. I have to assume you'll stop posting here if we don't draft Daniels, right?
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Yes, I've seen him throw on the run before, too. I've also seen Maye drop back and throw with flawless footwork. Just because a guy is capable of doing something doesn't mean he consistently does it and there aren't issue with that area of his game. The tape and the numbers show that Daniels is really low in how often he passes when pressured and has to break the pocket. He's much more likely to pull the ball and his eyes down and run. That's concerning to me because that was also with a very good OL and elite playmakers around him. What's going to happen when he's behind a mediocre line vs NFL pass rushers and pressure? I think we may see him bail and run even more. Which is not something I really want in my QB. I guess that's where we have a bit of a historic divide between us. But that's neither here nor there. The point was that the tweet was trying to claim throwing off platform and on the run is a strength of his, when the tape and the numbers show it to be a weakness. It just screams blind homerism to me.
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Yeah I wouldn't completely lose faith in the FO if this happened. I'd still trust them for now, but I'd be dubious about the pick. So I mostly agree with what you're saying here, except for one thing. I don't think McCarthy would be a "ballsy" move, football wise. I think it would be a somewhat safe move because IMO he has a higher floor but lower ceiling than Maye and Daniels. (Though there could certainly be validity to the idea of it being a ballsy move from a fan sentiment standpoint)
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Yeah this is just getting weird. It's like talking about a baseball prospect and touting how good he is at hitting home runs when there's plenty of data which directly indicates that's something he actually kind of sucks at. And then touting that player over another guy who actually does hit home runs.
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Benkert has been in the tank for Daniels for a while. I noticed that too when watching his analysis of Daniels vs Maye. For Daniels he seemed to make every excuse under the sun for why negative plays were someone else's fault: it was the OL, it was the receiver, it was the play calling. Neither Maye nor Williams got anything close to that luxury from him, especially Maye.
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In the first part you're not really describing a running QB, you're describing a scrambling dual threat QB who has legs but uses them to buy time and keeps his eyes downfield, and usually only runs if nobody is open and he sees green grass in front of him. And a QB that takes off and doesn't slide or run out of bounds is generally a dumbass and needs to have that drilled into his head. That's why Burrow keeps getting hurt. That doesn't have anything to do with a scrambling dual threat QB vs a running QB. Running QBs look to run a lot and hence they're going to get hit more and in a wider variety of angles and intensities vs other guys. Because of that it's just statistically more likely that they'll get hurt. Hell, Anthony Richardson has only started 4 games in the NFL and he already has a concussion and a separated shoulder by getting hit. And he's 245lbs. Imagine what those hits would have done to Daniels and his 200lb ass.