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Everything posted by mistertim
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I mean...ok, sure it's non-zero. But so is a black hole passing by the earth and destroying it in the middle of the draft. At the end of the day, the final decision is for GMAP to make. He'll take everyone else's opinion into account, but he's ultimately in charge of the draft. So I think it's almost impossible that there would truly be a "deadlock" unless GMAP himself is truly 100% torn between Maye and Daniels, which I think is extremely unlikely.
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Yes the talk of trading back can be dismissed completely because it's not happening. The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pick, and there's no reason whatsoever to think that. They haven't really even bothered to put up a smokescreen.
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Nobody is paying the cost to trade up to #2 for a WR. Especially in such a stacked WR class where you have, at minimum, 3 elite blue chip prospects at the position without a ton of difference in their quality. The Cards will wait and see who falls to them. 98% chance Harrison is still there when they pick anyway, as they'll know QBs are probably going 1, 2, and 3. Even if something nuts did happen and some loon gave up a king's ransom to move to 3 for Harrison there are still 2 elite WR prospects left. This is a pure fantasy.
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Dude, nobody is going to give that much up for a WR when he's almost certainly going to slip past 3 anyway. If someone trades up to 2 it would be for a QB. We're not trading back; it would be so dumb and such a huge risk because we'd then be out of control of our own destiny. We're staying at 2. Can we please stop with that silliness and get back to the regular silliness of debating between Maye and Daniels?
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We're almost certainly not getting Maye or Daniels if we move down 2 or 3 spots. Even when one of them slips to 3, someone else will leapfrog us. This obsession some people have with trading back while we're in a prime position to pick up an elite blue chip QB prospect for the first time in over 10 years (and without giving up a king's ransom to move up) is utterly baffling.
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That's fine, though I think the lack of injury could partially be due to being behind such a dominant OL and not getting hit very often. He got hit several times in the championship vs Michigan and was limping by the end of the game. So yeah I have serious doubts about him remaining healthy behind a non-dominant OL.
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Penix may have a higher floor (though part of that is having played for 6 years in college) but I think his ceiling is definitely lower too. Then you have the age issue (he's almost 24) as well as the massive injury history and the fact that he was behind the best OL in the nation and fell apart once he was against a team that was able to get consistent pressure on him in the championship game. Trading back while having access to more talented prospects who are younger (especially Maye) and with more upside would be nonsensical. Pass.
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Daniels has more experience but he still has issues that are potentially concerning. They both do. With regards to Daniels he definitely has cleaner and more consistent footwork/mechanics (which makes sense after starting 5 seasons instead of 2) but he also has pretty limited tape of the sort of tight window 2nd level and anticipation throws that are absolutely essential in the NFL. That doesn't mean he can't make them, but that we just don't have much evidence for it. Add to that the fact that he has a very low percentage of times that he throws after getting pressured and breaking the pocket (he much more often pulls his eyes down and runs, even if guys are open downfield) and you have legit concerns about how he'll fare if thrown into the fire without really good protection. Again, I think both of them could start immediately, but I could see potential concerns with that for both of them as well.
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Taking the exception as the rule is usually not a good proposition. The chances that we'll suddenly turn into a SB contender in year 1 are miniscule. If our FO (again, key word...IF) believes that the best option is to pick Maye and let him sit a while before starting but that once he fixes his issues he has a great shot at being an elite QB for the next 10-15 years, and that Daniels doesn't have the same long term upside, then you always go for the long term play. I don't think Maye needs to sit. Or if someone thinks Maye has enough issues to sit then the same could definitely be said for Daniels. I think they could both definitely start right away. But I'm also not the coach or GM of the Commanders.
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Who cares? We're not going to the Super Bowl this season. If this FO believes that we could pick one guy and start him right away but that he's not necessarily going to be special or a great QB for a long time, or we could pick the other guy and he might need to sit at first but he'll be an elite QB for the next 10-15 years, then we pick the second guy 10 times out of 10. I have no clue why some people are so obsessed with winning right now or starting the QB right now. It doesn't matter. We're not currently a contender and we'd have another 4 years before we'd have to pay him anyway. You go with the long term play.