skinny21

If target separation is how close a defender was when the receiver caught the ball… couldn’t that actually be (potentially) heavily affected by the qb? Seems to me scheme (spacing, predictability, etc), route running (which covers a lot of factors of course), and the qb (timing, processing, reading the D) could all play a significant role? Not to mention pass pro giving time for routes to develop… I’m not blaming Howell or absolving Terry, I’m just pondering what factors can actually play into that number. I actually used the separation numbers in a defense of Howell, but always wondered why two guys (Terry and Jahan) seen as good route runners couldn’t get open. I landed mostly on defenses knowing we had to get the ball out early (due to pass pro issues), leading to our receivers not getting many chances on longer developing routes, though that was purely speculative on my part. Edit: to be clear, I totally agree with trying to take advantage of a deep wr class (even if I think the top priority is improving protection for whoever our qb will be)

Plus two DEs and a corner or two… we’re so close, lol. In all seriousness though, I think coaching is huge. Well, that or I have to give a ton of credit to Bobby McCain for our defensive play in 2022, and that doesn’t really sit right with me.

Would be pretty wild if Ben Johnson were hired and firmly believes in Howell… (Whether that’s Howell compared with the other available qbs, or Howell plus draft ammo - possibly w/ a trade back - over the other guys) I say Ben Johnson due to the UNC connections of course

I tend to agree here, but worth mentioning that we now have a GM known for finding diamonds in later rounds, so maybe (hopefully) our past isn’t prologue…

Thanks, and yeah, that would not be ideal of course. I’d pencil in Stromberg and the rook over Gates, but if Gates looks a lot more polished, particularly in setting protections? Oh well. At least he’d (hopefully) have a better LG next to him and we have young guys developing to take over for him. I didn’t spell it out, but my main goal in FA would be to add a blend of high end players and short contracts for either younger guys trying to break through, or vets that help 1) up the competition level for positions and 2) fill holes while we draft/develop young guys. In other words, no Wylie’s or Gates’… I’m curious how market values will shake out. I’m expecting some pretty wild contracts. We have the benefit of lots of cap space and a cheap qb room, but I’m thinking our cap space can thin out in a hurry.

I don’t mind still going after Connor Williams, assuming his surgery went well. With that said, we could look to the draft instead, hope a rookie or Stromberg can become our long term center, and put that money toward TE/ILB/db instead. I share the concerns of pairing a rookie center with a rookie qb, but 1) you can alleviate that a bit by having quality veteran guards next to the rookie center, and 2) we’re almost certainly not competing for a title next year, so you can let them take their lumps a bit and grow together. And of course, Stromberg (or even Gates) could play until the rook is deemed ready if necessary. Brown’s ability to play LT/RT is appealing, particularly in how it opens up the draft a bit. As for edge, I’d look to add a top guy (Hunter) and then maybe a 1 year deal for either a Clowney to Toohill type (a decent enough guy that can compete with Henry/Jones/a draft pick and/or rotate in) or an up-and-coming guy that maybe hasn’t put it all together yet. Feel like Uche is going to want a lot more than 7.5mil… Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to add 2 good defensive ends, but again, we still ought to address ILB/TE/db and the above costs will add up quickly. I’m super torn on receiver. Feels like costs have skyrocketed since Kirk signed. Yet it’s not hard to think that giving a rookie qb a high end weapon to pair with McLaurin might be worth more than a decent DE (a second one), good ILB and a db. Given the relative depth of the draft class at receiver though, I think I lean toward a more marginal FA receiver (a-la Pringle/Crowder). DB is going to be interesting. My guess is they go for a high end safety and a 1 year deal on a good corner (like Gilmore). Intrigued to see how it all plays out. Wonder how we’ll be perceived by free agents given the contrast of us feeling like a project, vs the excitement of potential with a good FO, hopefully good coaching staff and top drafted qb.

I think the combo of 1) needing a qb, 2) having the chance to draft a very well regarded qb at 2 (w/o not needing to trade up), and the fact we’d be starting a new HC’s reign with a top notch qb prospect… it’s an absolute no brainer to pick qb at 2. I think it’s huge for the fanbase as well, although I don’t think that should really be a consideration for FO. And lastly, we have a lot of resources to improve the talent around the young qb. Now, if for some reason they don’t see it with the qb that is available? If they’re worried about scheme fit, or some red flags give them pause? Highly, highly doubtful IMO, but I suppose there’s at least some sort of chance they wind up preferring a trade back. Personally, I don’t think it’s worth the time to discuss, but to each their own. And this is coming from someone that still thinks Howell could be a good qb.

Sounds like you’re equating leadership to personality/maturity? Maybe I could have worded it better, because I wasn’t trying to be blasé about it. My point was that I think most FO’s would rate things like throwing ability, processing speed, reading defenses, work ethic and others (maybe even being a decent person/maturity) over leadership.

I believe they’re prioritizing leadership over an X’s and O’s because a HC can delegate. While leadership is a definite plus at qb, I’d assume it’s probably down the list of the top boxes to check for the position…

You make some really good points here. I’ve been of the mind that we (generally) go by “supply” - OT and WR are seemingly deep in the draft, and looks like a pretty good group of Edge, corner and ILB in FA. More generally, I’d tend to avoid FA for RB and TE (in our case specifically, would love to find a stud TE and they don’t hit FA… though we could use a decent guy there as well, which you can get in FA). I was partially in alignment with you in that I’d look to add one good OL in FA (and 2-3 in the draft), but your points about needing time to develop is pretty salient when we’re looking at fielding a rookie qb in a new offense….

Wonder if that was a Del Rio vs Rivera thing (he played a lot the last 4 weeks), or due to how he looked when Barton was out (IIRC Barton missed some time recently?). I know Speilman isn’t our GM, but it’ll be interesting to see how we play things in FA given he said to Keim he strongly believes FA is to supplement, whereas Harris seems to want to turn this around in a hurry. Obviously those points don’t necessarily oppose each other, but I could see going a bit lighter on FA than we might expect… at least until after a year of evaluation and getting everyone’s feet wet (the staff, new QB, etc). And not that in should inhibit us from spending, but there’s also the idea of extending some of our own in the near future. Beyond Cosmi, I’m not sure who is likely to fit that bill though. Actually kind of shocking how few guys I see as potentially worth extending down the line… maybe Forrest? Of course, any contracts we sign wrap up before any of their own drafted guys will be due 2nd contracts.

Didn’t you say that last week? Oh wait, that was yesterday. Ok, maybe you’re onto something.

I’ve been pretty impressed with Hudson this season. Anyone else notice him being quite… demonstrative last game? Very curious what that was about - seemed like much of it was directed at the sideline?

I’ve been of the mindset that our FA should focus on defense and adding high end talent (though we’ll sign a bunch of cheaper guys too of course). DE, ILB, and then either a corner or safety (I think we’ll sign one of each at least, but I think only one will/should be a higher priced guy). I’d look to add a higher end talent at IOL too. Very doable IMO, though convincing those types to come here might be the hard part. Then the draft can focus on taking advantage of quality depth at OT and WR, while also adding some combo of RB, IOL, TE and maybe a couple of defensive players. This is presuming we land a QB in the 1st of course, which, by the way, I’m not yet 100% on, even if I think it’s the safest offseason bet (other than a new FO). The one thing that gives me pause is 1) the analytics side and 2) the idea that the focus could be on slow playing things a bit - waiting on big deals until the rookie qb (and to a lesser extent the coaching staff/FO) gets their feet wet. Maybe they do indeed go after 1 year deals, or guys that they hope can break out in the near future.

Not disagreeing with you, but I’m curious how you came to this conclusion? I’ll add that a part of my calculus, beyond saving 8-10mil or whatever to allocate elsewhere, was that Scott seemed to hold up vs Bosa (and our ground game was quite effective too). Made me think maybe we could get by with the two of them (Lucas/Scott), along with Daniels and whatever OTs we draft (plus Cosmi and perhaps Wylie as emergency OTs). But I’d still hold onto Leno until post-draft at the least in this scenario. I hear you on this. While I’m looking forward to drafting an OT (plus a 2nd lineman that could hopefully play inside or out), I’m not getting my hopes up that they’ll be clear upgrades from day 1.

I’ve been of the opinion that we should retain Leno for various reasons, similarly to how I thought we should hold onto Moses, but now I’m thinking I might rather re-sign Lucas and then cut Leno. Save money, Lucas can play on both sides of the line, and if we wind up drafting two starting caliber OTs (not likely, but possible), we’re not paying big money to our swing tackle. With that said, I might hold off on cutting Leno until post-draft. I’d be a little surprised if the new staff slow plays the roster build/re-tool via going light on FA contracts. They’re going to want to turn this around in a hurry, and it’s apparent this roster needs added quality more than need quantity. Obviously they’ll need to add inexpensive FAs to fill out the roster, but I expect they’ll shoot for a few bigger names. Now whether they can convince bigger names to sign here is a different story…

Tempting for sure. Not only the 5th year option alone, but I’d assume it would be for a receiver or tackle, so you’re probably leapfrogging some teams that want to go after the same positions, and it’s a 5th year for a premium priced position. On the flip side, 1) with strong positional depth in the draft at both of those spots, it may be a smarter draft strategy to just wait, and 2) that early 4th rounder probably has a pretty good chance at being a contributor or maybe even a solid starter sooner than later. Tough call. Of course, you could always attempt to then trade back with the second 2nd rounder and recoup the loss…

Prepare to open the flood Gates!

I’m right with you on all of this… and a little surprised I didn’t end up a 49ers fan given how much I loved watching Montana, and then Young, play. Frankly, the odds of any qb becoming elite is minute, though that shouldn’t prevent trying to land/groom one to that end. I don’t blame those that think Sam can’t/won’t become an elite qb - I strongly doubt it myself (and I’m not even convinced he can/will become a “good” qb either - this staff may well have ruined him). The one aspect that gives me pause on that negative line of thinking, beyond having been dealt a horrendous hand this year, is his mental make up. The combo of self correcting, not getting phased (by turnovers, big games, etc), and the ability to perform in pressure situations (2 minute drills)… those things are pretty huge. Combine all of that with plus arm talent and athleticism, and him showing the ability to place the ball accurately (could use more consistency here, but that could be more about his supporting cast), and all that’s left, IMO, is - can he become comfortable enough in an offense (he may well not get that opportunity) and can he dissect defenses quickly enough? The million dollar question(s).

Yeah, Bowers is appealing because of the depth at the other spots and questionable TE depth… but I could be reading the tea leaves wrong.

I think generally, you keep youth, you keep cheaper guys that have shown something, and pricier guys that have years left on their contract (assuming they’re roughly playing up to their cost). And of course you have guys hitting FA that you may or may not re-sign (I’d consider Curl, though I think he’ll want too much, and I probably let Fuller walk), and guys going into their final year you might extend (Cosmi, for example, is a no-brainer for me). It’s nuanced though. Take someone like Brian Robinson. If we draft a qb this year, the expectation/hope is we probably kind of stink next year, challenge for playoffs in ‘25, and are contenders for a period after that. With 2 years left on his deal, trading Robinson for a 3rd-5th makes some sense - you shouldn’t re-sign backs (generally) and so why not get a pick (w/ a 4 year contract, if they pan out - big if) if BR isn’t gonna help us contend? Flip side, having a ground game helps a qb out, and Robinson’s proven to be a solid runner and pass catcher. So, maybe you hold onto him as a transition piece instead? I’m certainly not anxious to move on from Terry, I’d hold on to him for our qb’s sake, but I do get the thinking that by the time we’re actually contending (in theory), he’s a FA or in his final year. I’d keep Dotson for sure though. No telling if he pans out, but he’s relatively cheap for 3 more years and (more importantly, IMO) his trade value is terrible right now. Definitely let Samuels walk, probably cut Logan (I’d like to get someone in-house before releasing him). Leno I hold onto for now. Not anxious for a repeat of releasing Moses (not apples to apples of course)… gotta prioritize protecting the young qb.

Foregoing qb and being on the receiving end of a bidding war for our pick is pretty darn tempting, especially if we only drop back a couple/few slots. Trade back for a 2025 1st, plus a second day pick this year and we could trade back into the 1st while still holding two 2nds and two 3rds (or one 2nd and three 3rds, etc depending on the trade back compensation). We’ll probably screw that possibility up by winning vs the Jets of course… sigh. I wouldn’t overly mind a RT if 1) they plan for him to flip to LT the following year - I’d rather a semi-competent Leno at LT and a good rookie at RT than a rookie at LT (who may or may not be an immediate upgrade from Leno), and Leno possibly sucking it up at RT (if past is prologue). 2) Skirts your point, but if we trade down a tad first. More importantly, the reason I quoted you - given the apparent depth at tackle and receiver, which makes more sense to target in the 1st vs 2nd? What if Bowers is also in the mix - Bowers, then OT and WR in the 2nd? Or possibly trade up into the 1st for one of those 2?

I was just thinking something along these lines… For a new FO - considering new ownership, coming off a dismal season, with huge question marks on the roster, and perhaps factoring in the need/drive to bring fans back - what’s the best move? Start fresh at qb knowing the team could struggle next year, or use the pick to help build the roster. Incremental improvement to look more competitive or swing for the fences (possibly taking longer to truly look competitive)? Draft a top 3 qb? Draft an exciting offensive weapon and have Sam and a vet duke it out? Draft an OT? Trade back to help add pieces to the roster (and/or add pick(s) for the future)? If they roll with Sam or a vet, perhaps we look more competitive, but do we lose out in terms of the future looking bright? Some serious questions…

I have my concerns going TE that early in general, but just logistically - given the apparent depth at OT and WR, and the lackluster TE class overall - going with Bowers makes a lot of sense IMO. That’s not even factoring that our TEs are lacking, TEs can be a QBs best friend (especially a young QB), and it’s not a position where good ones hit FA usually.

Pretty much. And really, I’d think the additional 2nd and 3rd probably come fairly close to grading out to a late 1st…?