CommDownMan

It's bonus split out over 5 years (although there could be a year 2 bonus that is spread over final 4). To hit 36, this is about 10 million off, so quick look it's likely about 5 and 5, that accelerates to 10 dead money that fourth year.

Personally, SiP wins. While not with the Commanders, EB, Wylie and Ron Rivera have had season you could call a success. I don't think you could convince me Sam Darnold has something to hang his hat on (outside of getting paid for said failures).

I like the story and would like to see what he could do with this team. That being said, if they won't play him and can get a 4th or more (with a GM known for mid-late drafting chops), I do start to be enticed. Something like 2024 4th, with 2025 6th that becomes a 2025 4th with x starts. Ok, got me thinking...

OT still is the biggest need and I'm very curious how they address. I wonder if a 2nd rounder gets in position to fight for starter role or becomes the swing. Not that we want to go into the draft needing that. Oren Burks was mentioned as a LB/special teamer. So he's still on my list. S/CB is so wide open, I think they have a good number of options.

I don't think he's lived up to his draft status, but I don't think reclamation makes sense (depending on what the knee issue was).

Didn't remember the name, so went looking. Interesting option. https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/49ers/article/49ers-free-agents-clelin-ferrell-stay-chase-18707549.php Keepers DE Clelin Ferrell What’s the old line? You don’t know what you’ve got until he’s gone because of a season-ending knee injury. After Ferrell started and finished the first 16 regular-season games, collecting 3.5 sacks and playing largely in the shadows, his immense value as a run defender became evident after he was injured in the Week 18 finale against the Rams. Here’s some offseason advice to help 49ers solve their roster problems Without Ferrell, the run defense went from stingy to stunningly bad. In the regular season, the 49ers allowed 89.7 rushing yards per game (third in the NFL) and 4.1 yards per carry (10th). In three playoff games: 149.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, figures that would have both ranked last in the NFL in the regular season. Ferrell, the No. 4 pick in 2019 by the Raiders, has failed to meet draft-day expectations in his 13.5-sack career. But he’s elite when it comes to setting the edge, NFL lingo for a defensive end or linebacker’s ability to not allow running backs to get outside of them. It’s gritty and unglamorous work for a pass rusher, and Ferrell’s primary playoff replacements, Young and Randy Gregory, weren’t up to the task. “Clelin brought probably the best effort of anybody on the team,” pass rusher Nick Bosa said when asked about Ferrell’s absence during the playoffs. The 49ers should make a strong effort to bring back Ferrell. It’s a relatively low-cost move — he counted $2.46 million against the salary cap last year — that could pay big dividends.

https://overthecap.com/draft While our draft pool is ~16 mill, this suggests basically an even 10 mill impact on cap. As you say, 50 can go a long ways. With 1 year deals mixed in, probably only about $40 mill pegged for next year. So they've done well to put themselves in a position to be in a similar place next year as well.

Do they have all the new guys listed? With some 1 year deals and 7 total players pending, I'd guess 25-30 mill was added to the roster. With legal tampering and slow news on exact deals, I think those sites don't add right away. I still expect we have about 60 mill in space. With rookie pool adding about 10mill after rule of 51 kick outs, there is 50 mill in theory. Peters said they wouldn't spend it all and I expected them to leave 25-30 mill. So I'm guessing 2 mid level contracts and a few more smaller deals are still on the table. With OT need I could see a slightly bigger deal, lowering the overall number of signings. Edit: Peters could also mean they didn't want to eat up lots of next years big cap numbers and plan on a few more 1 year deals.

You said no one ever reached that level. I am simply pointing out that isn't true.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/derwin-james-25112/ Year one cash 24.5 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/minkah-fitzpatrick-25106/ Year one cash 22.1 million Contracts go up, so it's not that surprising. Not to mention 24.5mill isn't that far off.

We saved 6.5 mill in cap space, which wasn't guaranteed. So probably about that. edit https://overthecap.com/player/logan-thomas/3059 Looks like with roster and training bonus, could have been near 7.

I was curious to see an example of other running backs to get a gauge of a say a 3/30 deal and if year 3 wasn't guaranteed if we could work it lower than a 2/20 in theory. So many rookie deals, franchise tags, 1 year deals and a few top guys. I knew RB was deprioritized, but hadn't really noticed just how short term most of these deals are. edit for pic Looks generally the same for other positions (other than QB/OT). So maybe it's just how the NFL works in general.

He was released, signed to Lions practice squad and didn't play. Wanting to chase another SB and being in high demand aren't the same thing. While I could see higher, I pegged him as a 1yr / 3mill deal. The KK connection and age strikes me as a stop gap that isn't a big $$ deal. The cap increasing more than expected probably moves deals up some, but I just don't see 6-7per making sense. Also, for me it's a 1 year deal. Whether new draft pick or growth from an existing player, I think a 1 year stop gap is the right idea.

I feel like this team picked stars of other teams and tried to change them into the role that fit the current coaching scheme. While there is likely some level of crap shoot to FA, I feel like it shouldn't be as drastic if the team really just learns to take advantage of a players strength. That's the dream at least.

Depending on the use of void years and backloading I think these 3 are doable. How much is left who knows, but so far it seems doable to me.

Yeah, there is definitely a curve that needs to be considered. Barkley at 3yr/6mill....of course you do it. 3/12....yup, 3/24, probably, 3/30, maybe... Ultimately for where this team is from a competitive position , I expect someone else to offer more, whether $$ or chance to win (or both). However, the "never sign a RB to a 2nd contract" can't be the only answer. Eventually there's value out there.

I believe he said high priced free agents aren't the way to build a team. Maybe there was other quotes, but I think that's very different statement. I think we'll have 30ish mil left in the season (even after rookie signings). But getting to 60 million in spending isn't sitting out. I guess we'll see, but I'm still thinking 5ish mid level signings and several lower cost, experienced guys like Ertz / Fowler types.

Spicy Indeed...

Samuel's is a free agent. The only reason he shows on the team next year is the cap hit from his void years. I think it's unlikely they bring him back.

If we have a FA signing (Keandre Jones counts), I think it's time to kick off the 2024 thread!

With a Guard signed, I do think Wylie goes, but I see a cap savings of just under 1.6 mill on sportrac and otc. I looked at Greenard as well, but was concerned with durability. Agree with the overall approach. Want to see a good deal addressed during free agency, so the drafting for need is limited.

When they get the stadium underway, I could see a rebrand in its inaugural season. That may be a while to wait, but adding all the signage during construction the lead up to that season would be pretty epic. By that point they would also have a new team facility, a few years of winning (hopefully). Combine winning, facility, stadium the hate you mention will land a lot better either way.

Based on Re-calibrate vs Re-build, I don't see them going that quiet in FA this year. I don't see 2-3 100+ million deals, but the coaching staff doesn't want status quo and it can't all come from the draft. The coaching staff hires were a blend of experience and up-and-comers, I expect a similar approach to the player side of the offseason. I see some arguments for trading back, even though it would still surprise me. Also, they need to have a 4 year rolling average cap spend of 89%. The example I gave above is right about the 89% mark (not that we need to hit that mark each year). With rollover, they'd be at 130ish million with no big ticket players needing to be re-signed (Cosmi and Davis are the only names I see as maybes, and they won't be massive deals). Jonathan Allen and McClaurin come up again in 2026, but no other big ticket players are appearing (at least from what we've seen so far). Saving money and then spending big in FA future doesn't work out in reality. This article below talks about how it rarely bounces the way you'd expect. With few internal players to spend on, combined with the desire to get some players to help change the culture, I think intentional roster churn is going to happen and FA will be needed to make it happen. https://www.the33rdteam.com/free-agent-spending-vs-long-term-success-part-1/