CommDownMan

Arizona at 3 could pick Harrison or trade to highest bidder. I think jumping them is probably most important. With Vegas at 6, I think you'd be in good position to get some solid picks and still be in position get one of Harrison, Bowers, top 2 OT. Depends on if they want QB obviously. Less ideal there since at 3 they're talking the last of the top group most likely.

So what won't be the winning lottery numbers this week?

Reverse jinx on Giants.

Looks like he's back in.

Depends on which Bears and Cardinals teams show up. But if the Bears do lose, we'd be in position to jump Arizona as things currently stand, so 5 would still be in order. edit: looking at Arizona and Chicago, I'd rather Arizona win this one. Bears have Atlanta, GB and Browns. Potentially winnable. Arizona has 49ers, Philly and Seattle.

If Giants. Bears and Commanders lose out, we could very well be 6th.

Nope, but Arizona has a higher SoS, so if they can finish today and win one more, gives a chance to jump them by seasons end. Edit: technically we will look like 4th with bears being 4-8 vs 4-9. But if they lose on our bye they take it back. Jets and bucs as well, meaning we could be at 7th if these teams are at 4-9 next week.

Does this tell you who was drafted 1-4?

On tankathon, the '?' near the SOS, says using all 17 opponents. Some changes will happen, but giants playing the eagles and losing should change the SOS calc the same for both teams. With a lot of common opponents, I don't think it'll be massive changes. (At least that's how I read that statement).

Not yet, but with their schedule there is hope it'll happen.

There used to be a general rule that future picks were downgraded a round from a value perspective (draft pick value has changed, so I don't know how true that is now). For teams that are not ready for a deep playoff run, getting future picks at a 'discount' is well worth evaluating.

The trick here (even when talking about Chase) is who is doing the evaluating. When we selected Jamin Davis, Darrisaw was available. Looking back and "re-doing" Kerrigan and Watt doesn't mean much if they weren't going to pick Watt either way. I'm not saying they wouldn't, but it's easy to look back and see the better choice. I want a solid talent evaluator that has a plan. If a QB is coveted that isn't a big improvement from Howell (based on new GM eval) and they rank the top 10 OT closely and expect the first 10 all go by pick 40, trade back from 5, get pick ~15 and use some of that ammo to trade back up to ~20 and get your bookends. Fuaga, Mims, Latham currently projected around here. Still likely end up with a extra 3rd from starting point, so another 4 picks in the 40-100 range. However, if MHJ is there and is rated well above everyone else, get the blue chip player and hope you get what you need in the second round. I get why people would be for/against trade backs, but with a good evaluator of talent, I hope to see movement in both directions as it makes sense. edit: Darn work got in the way and SIP already, more eloquently, made this point. Haha.

Harder is worse for draft position.

The Bears have the tie breaker, so this isn't true. But since they need 2 wins for commanders to jump them, it'd be nice if they got one this week.

I only want 2 bear wins. Enough to have commanders jump in the first, but keep the best 2nd we can still get. Edit: I mean 2 wins.

Absolutely. It helps out chances of them winning, just not tiebreaker. He may very well may be saying that, I didn't read it that way.

Commanders having a higher SOS remaining means the gap will widen and the Bears will definitively have the tie breaker. Easier schedule means they were the 'worse' team of the 2 and get the higher pick. Seems like Ben is suggesting it's helpful to have the harder schedule and if thats the case he is wrong on that as well. Edit: https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength According to this we're 6th hardest remaining and Giants are above us. I thought that may matter, but tankathon SOS factors all 17 games already, so this won't change to much like when it changes from current values to this point.

Jackson Powers-Johnson, perhaps?

Technically Bears are not 1 (and idk why they put a 3-8 at 2 over a 2-9 team...) Either way add to the disgrace we got 2 of our wins in close games against what I see as the #2 and #3 and it paints a pretty bad picture. Edit: And #8. Denver has turned it around a bit, but were really struggling when we played. We've really only beaten a few really bad teams.

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl This still says 7. I think the 6 above is the calculated results in order, suggesting the model thinks 6th is most likely.

Then why bring up Synder winning a Thanksgiving game. Who gives a ****. They hired an analytics guy and made moves that the team never made in synders tenure. Does that mean they'll be amazing? No. But hardly just buying beers and having parties.

If all you ever want to win is a Thanksgiving day game, then that's on you.

Our owner could still be dan synder. It could be worse.

If you select the board tab, that big board matches almost exactly, so what you say makes sense.

Dropped the giants to 5th as well.