skinsfan66

11 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

I guess it's possible we offered Brissett a repeat of the 1-year deal at $10M and he decided to take a little less to go 'home' - although he only played in 3 games for NE before getting traded to Indy. 

 

Just seems weird.

We let Brisset walk means to me we are going to draft Maye.

If we traded Howell it meant we were taking Daniels.

I said that very early in the process got ripped for it. 

It's what I would do and may not come true but...

If we trade Howell? 

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

You can’t fumble if you don’t play. 
 

4D Chess

Still had 1064 total yards, 6 TD's in 14 games  1637 total yards in 2022 18 TD's 17games    1558 total yards 2021 20TD's16 games. I see no injury history other than last year and 2020 were he played 10 games 16 the year before and 15050  Total yards.   He has never been injury prone. 7 years missed 7 games. Still 28 years old think he still has some left in the tank.

14 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Going to be interesting seeing the board freak out over how little activity from us in the first push of free agency.

Not me, think that's the way to go this year. Maybe a few trades down the road and work the draft.

3 hours ago, 80's Fan said:

From the limited tape I saw, had the same conclusion as Voice of Reason: McCarthy looks to me, well behind Daniels & Maye.

 

As an admitted novice,  I thought Daniels protection was better than Maye's; he seemed to have plenty of time in the pocket & was good at exploiting the gaps that opened up and had the confidence to wait for that. Obviously won't have that luxury at the top level but shows smarts & quick thinking. An absolute athlete on the run, and evasive, but how sustainable with the body size? Would need a stellar protection scheme. Also had a couple of "go to" guns out wide.

 

It's hard not to think Maye's size would be more attractive to a re-building franchise. Too simplistic? Strikes me he's basically got the solid skills to invest around & like was mentioned, had nowhere near the protection Daniels enjoyed, but generally handled the pressure ok.

 

Much enjoy the banter in here.  can't wait for all to be revealed. 

 

 

 

O

What's your take on McCarthy and the distance between? 

3 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

That's what bothered me about Samuel, he's allegedly one of the top couple fastest players on the team, if not THE fastest, but you never saw that on gameday.  Just no downfield or catch and run explosive threat whatsoever.

11.5 Mil a year to boot.  

10 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Given how many backups played multiple games last season, I'm willing to bet Sam gets more chances to crack the code and stick, especially given the reports that multiple teams are interested in trading for him. If you've ever played in high school, college or beyond, the comfort level of knowing the game is night and day from year one to year two/three. So much was thrown on his plate, he'll be better for it in the coming years. I'd wager a 6-pack that Sam is in the league way more than just a couple more years. 

2 different Offenses to learn in those 2 years too, 2 different coaches.  Hope he learned a lot from his time spent here and making it through those18 games( a feat in it self). Brissett could not even start the game he was supposed too. 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The wave of negativity from certain quarters on Maye from the media.  Its been one big wave give or take the last month.  it's certainly not everywhere, I'd say Maye is still #2 in give or take half the mocks and has a large share of believers -- but he's generated some intense haters somewhat out of the blue and agree with Monson its sort of built momentum

 

The irony for me is as someone who subscribes to just about everything, listens to a zillion podcasts both local and national so I am not bad at getting a pulse on things.  It feels much more from some in the media then about leaks from scouts -- yet they love to say its not them its the scouts. 

 

From my observation its mostly some in the media which has turned on Maye.  It's not really scouts-personnel people as to these leaks with some straggler exceptions but most of the scout-personnel leaks has been positive on Maye.  Not all of them but most. 

 

I think its a great dig by some in the media who perhaps want to take a deeper dig at Maye by saying its like hey we think he sucks but you know what -- we are much higher on him than the scouts who really think he's awful 

 

Some hyperbole there from me to make a point.   It's not dramatic to that scale.  I just find some irony in it.

 

I am Maye over Daniels.  But I want one of the two.  I'd say if I am going purely on media rumors versus mocks, Daniels right now has the slight edge.  If I am going purely on people who cover the team, Maye has the slight edge as for who is taken.  But as I said I doubt this team decided.

 

I am actually also one of the rare people here who are good with McCarthy.  But as far as he goes I've heard zero rumors of this team being hot for him.  It's still early though.

 

 

 

Working out at the combine would have had the pendulum swinging for Maye and Daniels and the no measurements thing. One response from Maye being interviewed at the combine while the other QB's were throwing, was If they do not like me they do not have to take me? When asked why and if it affected teams taking him something like that? Looked like he was chomping at the bit to throw. Not sure if that was the right thing to say?  

4 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

4 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

3 hours ago, Command The 414 said:

imho Daniels better shine like a star in a dark sky all alone come his Controlled Atmosphere Pro Day… 

Same for Howell and Williams. Daniels needs Visit Mickey D's and down of those Big Mac meals. 

15 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Selling 2 Mansions too. He is from Richmond wonder if he hits Wash. on the rebound?

22 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I’d say Moore, although he’s older. Biadasz is way less consistent. Depends if age factors into the decision making process IMO

Pro bowl player 2022 and can get started on him now as he was cut. Would fill one big need maybe he fits the budget? Plus he is not a cowboy!

14 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

Exactly right. Blowing the pick is risky too. Hence my point about safety. Its baked into the cake that everyone sticks their grubby dirty fingers into trying to find the piece with the most icing.

 

You could trade back, gain 3-5 new picks, and ALL of those acquired picks could bust in year one 😂

 

I sense fan participation is much higher this off-season, probably for the same reason Im more engaged... Hope springs eternal.

 

 

 

 

We're in agreement then.

 

You dont trade back because its safer.

 

You trade back because of how your draft board is rated, and which probably changes daily based on new information.

 

I dont think you trade down simply because of the perception of getting more bites at the apple, thus risk is decreased... In this case I think you trade back because you have multiple players ranked highly and the opportunity to hire those players exceeds the value of staying put.

 

Just my 2¢

A+++posts   

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Honestly curious why drafting Daniels would suddenly make Thomas better??????

 He is a down field sideline type WR that would work better with a QB like Daniels. Maybe pass his prime and injuries lately, getting old but may still have a little left at a reasonable price. 2/3 years ago he was up there with the best.

44 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Michael Thomas is bigmad.

If you draft Daniels, Michale Thomas with be a good fit, if the price was right.

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Don't agree w/your way of ranking them, at all, honestly. 

 

But part of this is probably based on simply what we consider busts. For me a bust of a QB in round 1 is a guy who literally flames out and cannot play in the league, period. That is a Zach Wilson, a Blaine Gabbert, a Jake Locker.

 

You classify Tua, Trevor and Kyler as a touch above a bust (so I guess, just bad?)

 

Tua was crap in '20 and largely crap in '21, and a top 15 starter or better in '22 and '23. That's definitely better than 15% above a bust.

Lawrence has basically been average for two seasons and crap as a rookie. That's Average.

 

Kyler was a monster, mega hit producer basically until '22. He was a flat out stud from '19-'21 before he got hurt, and his mental makeup personality concerns started to worry people. He was top 15 as a rook with the team that finished dead last in the NFL in '18. 14th in '20, top 7 in '21, before he got hurt and dropped into the teens in '22, and early 20's after missing a big chunk of '23. You just have him wrong, period. I don't know if he'll ever be the same post injury and with the mental make up concerns, but when healthy he was above average to superb in his first 3 years w/a team that was horrific when he came in. That's a hit, period, when it comes to the draft.

 

As for Stafford, Ryan, and Cam, well they're different sorts, age and injuries did to Cam, what has now happened to Russell, but in their primes, both were mega elite, not just good, and Stafford and Matt Ryan? There's noone on the planet that views them as just good. They were habitually top 6-10 guys, the blue chips of the blue chips. If you want to say, well, they weren't Tom Brady, or Mahomes. Well no, but then again 99.9% of all QB's ever failed to reach that level, that's not just very good, that is 1st ballot HOF good. 

 

So no, your 1 in 10 chance to get a great one isn't right, nor your 15% to get a very good one. Look at QBR's, rankings, surrounding talent etc.

 

There's the God Tier:

Tom Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Montana, Elway, these guys appear about once every 10-15 years. 

 

There's the HOF Tier:

Ben Roth, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan etc: The guys that produce HOF #'s, and are legit pro bowl types of the old school '80's/'90's version, not the bull--- crap one, these guys are perenially top 4-8 in the league caliber.

 

There's the good tier:

These are the Kirk Cousins, Kyler ('19-'21) Prime Russell Wilson, Ken O'Brien in his prime, more recently a season like Love's in '23 is a "good tier" season but of course not a good career, yet.

 

There's the adequates:

The prime Dalton, the Tua's etc, the guys you view as barely above a bust, are the guys that hit well enough to keep the starting job, but don't convince you a super bowl is in your future. The best example from the last decade is probably Derek Carr, consistently inside the top 12-18 in the league, but almost never inside the top 10. 

 

There's the "I'm not giving this guy a 2nd contract, but he aint Zach Wilson" tier:

Ryan Tannehill's, and Just Fields, and Danny Nickels (normally) would fit here. They aren't Wilson/Gabbert/Bortles/Locker level busts, but they are clearly not hits.

 

There's the "Oh ---- we did a Gabbert/Bortles/Wilson".

 

I think that's the way to rank them. Or at least my way anyway.

 

To give an example from recent years:

 

2015:

Winston-Adequate

Mariota: No 2nd Contract

 

2016:

Goff: Adequate/Good Tweener

Wentz: No 2nd Contract

 

2017:

Trubisky: No 2nd Contract/Oh ---- Tweener

Mahomes: God Tier

Watson: God Tier/Pro Bowler before the masseuse Assaults came out

 

2018:

Baker: Adequates

Darnold: No 2nd Contract

Rosen: "Oh -----"

Allen: HOF

Lamar: HOF

 

2019: 

Kyler: Pro Bowl Good Cousins Pre Injury

Danny Nickels: No 2nd Contract/Oh ---- Tweener

Haskins: Oh ----

 

2020: 

Burrow: God Tier

Tua: Adequates

Herbert: HOF

 

2021: 

Lawrence: Adequates

Wilson: Oh -----

Lance: Oh ----/injury related

Fields: No 2nd Contract

Mac Jones: No 2nd Contract

 

2022:

Pickett: No 2nd Contract/Oh ---- tweener

 

2023:

Young: 1 Oh ---- season

Stroud: 1 God Tier season

Richardson: Injury Exemption

 

So just from the post Luck Era circa 2015 through 2023:

 

25 guys:

God Tier: 3.5 (Watson pre injury/masseuse was God Tier)/25

HOF Tier: 3/25

Pro Bowl Good Tier: 1/25

Average/Adequates: 5/25

No 2nd Contracts: 7/25

Oh ---- busts: 5-6

 

 

I think my own list kind of echoes are own intuitions and the draft history of the position: Historically 1st round QB's are viewed as busting eventually about half the time. That's basically what we have here, around 12 guys their draft teams had no interest in keeping beyond 1 contract and were generally speaking, right to think that way. There's about 12 hits, in terms of being able to play starting QB in the league at an adequate, Good/Pro Bowl, HOF and god tier level, and we have Richardson, who pre injuries, was viewed as a big hit by nearly everyone and especially the Colts last summer and fall before he got hurt a second time in the first six weeks or so of the season, making it 12.5 or 13 hits out of 25 guys, basically right around 50 to 50+%. The God Tier and HOF hit rate sits close 25% and add Pro Bowler/Cousins type guy, that pushes that rate to about 30% to me anyway. Adequates, the sort of Baker Mayfield line to Trevor Lawrence disappointing kind of level right now, is about 20%. 

 

So in general, I think we almost agree at the chances of hitting on a very good to mega elite QB, you see it as a 25% chance, I see it as historically the last 8 years as about 30%. Your mega bust rate is way higher than mine, and I do think I'm right in my view of it, because I think there's a genuine tangible difference between guys like Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Rams and early Lions Goff, and guys like Trubisky and Zach Wilson. A guy like Mayfield and and a guy like Winston could and can play in the league, period, they can start. And they're fine, but they aren't special or above average to good and will never be. Is that a bust? No. To me honestly, at any given time, somewhere between 66-70% of the starting jobs in the league are manned by Jason Campbell, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr's, Chad Pennington type adequates, or a bit worse QBs, or crazy ones like Winston. That is a better fate, in terms of talent and production, then Zach Wilson's, and Mitch Trubisky's and Josh Rosen's by a lot. Guys who flat out cannot play (even if its probably better to draft a Rosen, or Wilson rather than a Pennington, Carr or Campbell (in the former case, you know you ----ed up immediately, and have to try again, if you draft a Carr or Pennington, you rationalize their inadequacies and limitations, failing to ever come close to contending in the process). 

 

 

You included every QB. He said top 5 picks overall since 2018 to be fair, like you I disagree on some rankings. Since we have been talking Blue Chippers and top 3 picks. I think there are about 4/5 Blue Chipper hits on that list and maybe 2/3 a little below.   8 hits out of 23 picks   10 total busts   3/5 to be determined. It's a 50/50 deal crap shoot since 2018. But the goal is super bowl winners and since 2018 there is only 1 (Stafford) versus 6 non top 5 pick winners.   1 loser (Burrow) taken top 5 out of the 6 losers.  1 in 6 chance for a superbowl winner.   2 in 12 chance for a super bowl QB.  

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Might be better at guard in a zone scheme because his movement-agility stand out to me.  But IMO he needs to learn how to sustain his blocks in the run game.

 

As a pass protector, he's a bit sloppy but also feisty and recovers well.

 

He hits me as a bit of a tweener between the two spots -- guard and tackle.

 

Someone that a good O line coach like Callahan could develop.  Work in progress.  But I like the tools.  

 

 

 

Jennings is a restricted FA, so I don't think he's going anywhere.  He was a dude i liked back in the day on the draft thread so I'd love him to have him.

What's the comp. to give up for for Jennings?

17 minutes ago, redskinss said:

Back on cousins again huh.

I'm in the camp that has no interest in cousins but you can change my mind if you can answer one question for me.

 

Why do we want him if the Vikings don't?

 

That's the question that irks me every time there's a free agent quarterback available towards the end of their career and it's the one I can never get past.

 

If you're a team like the broncos or bucs and are going all in for a superbowl there's an answer.

 

If you have a Jordan Love on your team and it's time to see what he's got, there's an answer. 

 

Why are the Vikings letting him walk when they have no answer at quarterback, no replacement on the roster and no high pick in the draft?

 

If anything we're in a better place to let him walk and go to them not the other way around.

 

Does not seem to be the right question this time, because Minn does want him, it's about money. He gives nobody a discount, if we offered the top bid he would be here.  If we did sign him, we would not be drafting a QB at 2, because you do not pay a Menter that kind of money. Kirk is just getting the leverage. He lost a little when B.B. did not get a head coaching job.  

2 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Do yall honestly think Lamar Jackson would rather have gone top 5 to a terrible team and made more money as a rookie over ending up in a really good situation Baltimore? I do not. 

 

Do I think he would have preferred to go higher? Sure. Do I think he is more thrilled about the situation he landed in with that organization and Harbaugh? Absolutely.

He held out last season didn't he? Yes and he is glad and they are glad it worked out. 

15 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I think we know they will all go where they are selected. I think the point is that whether they are the 1st pick or 3rd is mattering less and less because more people are realizing its all about the situation you are drafted to that largely determines your success.

 

And he said it to Simms and Florio when they asked him about people talking about him possibly going #1

 

 

He knows he is not going no.1 anyway, so there is that too. I think he said he did not care if it was 1 or 32 the interview I saw.  It was the thing to say, he cares $$$.

12 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Yeah not worried about mccarthy on the giants at all

Me either, they would be fools not going WR. in this draft and take a 21 year old QB who might need a year. 

10 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

JJ has the worst touch on his throws out of all the top QBs in this draft. Can have all the strength in the world but without touch and accuracy, it matters zilch. 

He did not take his ball and go home like the other 3. He threw some nice deep outs yesterday and gets a chance to throw like the other 3 with familiar WR's. He was clearly better than Nix yesterday for the no.4 spot. But from day one everybody said he needed a year. 21 years old and it's what you project. Tape says your blowing up the accuracy thing.  If Maye lights it up in his pro day he should be the pick and could sit a year. If you trade down and J.J. lights it up at his pro day he should be the pick. Daniels and Williams have to much risk for me over what they can do on the field. 

36 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

His arm is fine, Velocity was 61mph just 1mph behind Joe Milton, who’s known for his rocket arm. though I agree it wasn’t some awe inspiring performance, but neither was anyone else’s. His best throws today were the slant corner routs, the hardest throw at the combine and he nailed those. Like they said in the booth, only 3 of those were hit all year across the entire league, and he made those look pretty easy. He didn’t do anything to really boost his stock or lose stock either.

He had a lot of zip on the ball and overthrew a couple deep shots, Milton had to take some off to be accurate. Penix was more accurate but without the zip and had trouble with the longer throws. N.C. ST. QB had a good day. 

45 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Penix seems to be only QB in this group throwing with anticipation.

Rattler making some deep throws. Reed just threw the worst wobbler I've seen so far. 

Penix looks good of course going deep. Lot of receiver drops in this group. Pratt looked horrible on deep throws.

Slovis cuts loose a bomb and gets back slaps from the other QBs.

The no velocity group, 1st group was clearly better except N.D.QB he threw like the 2nd group. Penix is accurate but not a lot of zip on the ball not so accurate on longer stuff had a real good day.

10 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

And yet Alabama has still been ranked 1st or close to 1st in previous seasons, regardless. This past season they simply weren't as good as they have been in past years. Good, but not the dominating force they've been in the past.

 

VoR didn't "pick" that game. Someone else here posted it as proof of how great McCarthy is and some of us found it lacking. I watched it a few times and found it pretty ho-hum and then VoR did a full breakdown and pointed out why it was ho-hum. I noticed a bunch of screens, holding the ball, some errant throws, and a quite a few tosses to wide open receivers. There were a couple nice plays in there but overall it wasn't exactly eye opening.

 

And VoR was grading it by NFL standards because this guy is going into the NFL. So "that would get your receiver murdered in the NFL" means that's a play he'd never be able to make in the pro game (unless he wanted his WRs coming after him with baseball bats after games).

They beat Georgia which they had not in a few years, kept them from winning another title. So they were just as good. They are like Duke and Coach K of the past  and they get the blue chippers every year top to bottom like OHST. Mich. has  no top 10 offense player maybe QB, 3rd rd. RB, 3Rd. rd WR OL 3rd? TE 6th? Everybody overrates Mich talent compared to the rest.  I would argue Bama,LSU,OHST Georgia maybe WASH. Have better talent. Mich has a lot of very good players and a coach who knows how to win. N.C. has better talent then what everybody is saying too, 2 top LB's, top QB, WR ranked higher and TE ranked higher....USC has talent too maybe a cut below over all.   

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Those were the two obvious releases as to cap room

9 minutes ago, ILikeBilly2 said:

More likely would be a trade up that combines one of our 2nd round and one of our 3rd round picks so we can move into the bottom half of the first round.

Gotta find one somewhere and a trade up to late first sounds good to me.   Also was not aware of hip surgery and letting Logan go too. 

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

No, cutting Leno does not mean were drafting a T in round 1. 

It sure increases a trade down you would think? loaded draft at LT. Pick 2 is to high with the QB's.