kleese

Head to head with Detroit can only come into play if they tie one of their remaining games. 9-7-1 is better than 9-8 as it represents a better winning %

We backed in 92, but then wound up a fumble away from the NFC Champ game. It was absolutely worth getting in.

Scheduling side note. Normally NFL has 12 day window for flexing games— exception is week 17 and 18 where they can exercise 6 day window. Looks like this will be the case for week 17. The current 4:25 primary game is Vikings/Packers. Not super strong for a stand-alone game in that window. SNF is Chargers/Rams. Today would normally be the day those changes were made, but looks like NFL will wait until next week to make those changes— makes sense because so many meanings of games could change based on what happens this weekend. I think it’s likely our game with Browns stays at 1pm that day, but it’s not set in stone. If Browns beat Saints Saturday and other pieces fall into place, our game with them could become more compelling and possible be in consideration to be moved.

What I’m saying is even in Gibbs years we had instances where we clinched last week of season and/or needed help to get in; most notably in 1992. In 1997 we actually needed the Lions vs Jets to lose to get us in. It was a close game, but Lions won and eliminated us. It happens pretty much every year throughout the league.

Nah, we’ve done it plenty of times in our history, including the Gibbs year. Sometimes you need help. Sometimes the teams that need help go and win playoff games.

Lions are hot and to a certain extent pass the eye test as well. But I’d also point out they were a play away from losing to Zach Wilson last week-who is just awful. Carolina is going to be a very tough game for them and it’s reflected in the low point spread. I think it’s actually the most important game left on schedule all season for us outside of our own games of course. If we can get a Panthers win, I think it will ultimately result in us making playoffs. If Lions win, I think they ultimately get in.

We have disagreed on this before and no different today. I prefer the game now to the 80s/90s. There are aspects of the old days I prefer, but I think the overall product is better now. QB play is so much better, more dynamic, more interesting, and schematically the game has evolved into more strategy. FA has some negatives, but has been an overall positive for the league. No longer do you really have teams like the Saints and Bucs who were roadkill literally for 20+ years consecutively. Go back and look at NFC playoffs in 1980s. Blowout City. Dominant teams have their place; but the individual games and weekends just weren’t very good or competitive overall. And the Super Bowls were a joke. Everyone— players, coaches, fans, are “smarter” now with more info and access— plusses and minuses to that for me, but overall I think the product is better than during our glory years. I LOVE nostalgia in general so I nerd out all the time and watch old games on YouTube. I enjoy the old graphics, intros, announces, commercials, players, settings, etc because it reminds me of being young, simpler times in my life, etc. But man the game was really slow and coaches were SO conservative and unimaginative. Third and 2 is gonna be a gut run. And fourth and inches is gonna be a punt. Every. Time. I will always enjoy those old clips and there is definitely something to be said for how much more “innocent” and simple the game was then— but I really believe it’s overall better now.

It’s rare, so it doesn’t bother me much. But remember the Beast Quake run for Seahawks to beat the Saints in playoffs? That was a 7-9 Seahawks team and I believe the Saints were 12-4. I promise Seattle fans wouldn’t give that moment back though. They played pretty tight in divisional playoffs as well.

I would love to permanently retire the “we don’t deserve the playoffs…” comments. If you get in, your deserve it— period. NFL is a tough league— most years the last wild cards aren’t great teams— often middling teams that found ways to win enough games. In 1992 we lost our last two games including final game of year at RFK to a lousy Raiders team that started a back up senior citizen at QB. We got lucky the next day when Minnesota beat Green Bay even though Vikings had already clinched their spot. We 100% backed into the playoffs that year at 9-7. Then we kicked the hell out of Minnesota in the WC game and were possibly a fumble away from getting to an NFC Champ Game the next week at SF. Just get in and give yourself a shot. More importantly— actually MOST importantly you extend the fun for fans and give everyone at least one week of being part of the playoffs. It’s a good thing.

—For those wondering… we cannot clinch Sat no matter what happens. We also cannot be eliminated no matter what happens Sat. —We COULD clinch Jan 1st, but would need to beat both 49ers/Browns and have a couple other things go right —We COULD be eliminated Jan 1st, but would need to lose both to 49ers/Browns and have things go against us

In a small sample I don’t think they would miss a beat with Minshew. It’s a catch 22 though— if Philly has something to play for week 18, then it probably means Dallas does too. Again, the Giants are now a pretty distant third for me in terms of who I’m watching. I’ll certainly root for them to lose against Minnesota this week, but my focus is squarely on Seahawks and Lions— and honestly, it’s on that Lions-Panthers game because I’ll admit I’m sort of assuming Chiefs take care of Seattle (dangerous, I know).

SF is a very good team. I do not think they are elite. I am assuming Purdy is not an elite QB and I’m assuming SF hasn’t stumbled onto the next Brady. If they have, then yes, that’s an elite team. But if Purdy comes back down to earth a bit (as he showed some signs of vs Seattle) and without Deebo, they have some areas to exploit. Also, I actually think what we do on offense can help neutralize an elite D. We don’t really take advantage of bad defenses, but I think we can methodically move ball even against good ones. BRob is pretty hard to “stuff.” And we do have playmakers that can get loose at times. We have had a terrible time scoring, but we generally move the ball, eat clock, etc. I think we can do that against SF. What we REALLY need is something good to happen early in the game. A little morale boost would be nice, but more importantly, playing from ahead against a team like SF is advantageous. We could use a turnover or return or random big play early in the game.

All kinds of possibilities shaping up. My only goal now after last night is to have a shot to get in week 18. Hopefully as a “win and in” but at least as a “win and need one other team to lose”— that’s a legit shot. My minimum goal each year is for the finale to matter. Has happened very infrequently past 30ish years. If we win 1 of next 2 we guarantee being alive week 18.

I haven't missed one play this year-- didn't miss one play in 2020 or 2021 either. Late in the 2019 season when we were completely done there were a couple of games where I missed large chunks and didn't care much about it-- the game at Lambeau that year I probably only saw 25% as there was a holiday gathering and I didn't put up a fight. I have been awaiting this coming week since schedule came out in May. For my entire life I've been able to plan ahead and manipulate things to watch our games at close to a 99% rate-- but for me, a Christmas Eve game in the late afternoon window is the ONE sort on non-negotiable conflict for me. I remember in 2016-- we played Bears early, won easily. The during our family/church outing I was following along as we needed Bucs to lose to Saints. Had to kill the phone around halftime of that game and was thrilled to see when I turned it back on that Saints had it more or less won. If our game was at 1pm this week, I'd be good. if it was at night, I'd be good because then I could DVR and be home not too long after it started. But 4pm is dead zone for me. So I'll be able to watch the first quarter or so and then listen/follow along until halftime or very early third. Then, I'll have to go silent for about an hour-- and that's the hard part. If we are losing 17-3 or something it will be like meh, I could only be pleasantly surprised when I emerge. If we are winning or if it's real close, that's gonna be a long hour of avoiding temptation of busting the phone out in church. What I would REALLY like is for the Chiefs and Panthers to give me an early Christmas gift. If the Panthers and Seahawks have lost already, then it really alleviates the pressure on our game and feels a bit like house money.

At this point, I'll be really surprised if Giants-Eagles means anything to us. If we have 9 wins going into week 18 and the Giants do as well, we could pass them-- but at that point, we may have already clinched or could get in with a win OR Lions/Seahawks loss. The only way I think it's really conceivable that Giants-Eagles really matters to us is if.... We split next two Lions sweep next two Seahawks lose at least once Giants lose next two In that case, Lions would have 9 wins and us and Giants would have 8. We would then need to win and get EITHER a Giants OR Lions loss. In essence, the only way the Giants will likely matter to us if is they lose to Vikings and Colts and other things fall into place elsewhere as well. For us, it's all about the Lions and Seahawks now. I think our goal should be to SURVIVE week 16... if we can somehow get through this week still controlling our destiny it's a win to me. There are two ways in which that would occur: 1. We beat 49ers 2. Lions and Seahawks lose Obviously if you combine both, that would be glorious and essentially erase the Giants loss. If it ALL goes against us and both of those teams win and we lose, then that's really bad. If we all lose, then it's sort of a wash-- with the odds tilting back our way a bit because it will mean we got through the 49ers game without losing our position.

Too much speculation for me on the Dallas game. First of all, Dallas is one play away from back to back losses vs Texans and Jags. They have legit issues. Secondly, almost assured they will be locked into a spot by week 18; which would alter the outlook of our game.

I am ALWAYS in this camp. I have thoroughly enjoyed the team this season. Looks like we will be guaranteed to play a game with playoff implications on Jan. 1st. If I can get weekly enjoyment/interest out of this team from Labor Day through NYD, I consider it a good season for my own selfish reasons. Agree. I really like SF as well and I think they can win the NFC for sure— but they aren’t some sort of indestructible force. As a matter of fact I like our odds of winning there than I did at Philly; who is a more dynamic team overall. Now, this is a game where we can’t mess around AT ALL. And we will need a few breaks like at Philly and the opposite of the two Giants games. Will likely need Purdy to help us out a little as well. This is a game I expect to lose, but by no means feel like it’s an impossible task. I give us like a 30% chance to win.

Not sure I’m ready to say Lions end season on 9 game winning streak. Obviously they are hot. I also think they lose today if Mike White plays for Jets. Definitely have to assume they beat the Bears in week 17 (although their first game went down to wire). I do not think either of their road games are gimmies— and they are likely to be underdogs at Green Bay. At this point what we really want is to at least control our own destiny week 18. So what we need to do next two weeks to accomplish that is keep pace with Detroit and Seattle. The absolutely MOST plausible thing for me to see: —Seahawks lose to KC/beat Jets —Lions beat Panthers and Bears (not gimmies) —We lose to SF/beat Browns —Giants lose to Vikings/beat Colts If that all happened, Giants would be in. Final spot would come down to us, Lions, and Seahawks. Lions would control things— they beat GB, they’d be in. They lose, we win, we are in. Detroit and us lose, Seahawks beat Rams, Seattle is in. Gun to my head, I am predicting we enter week 18 needing a win and a Lions loss (this would be the exact same scenario as last week of 1997 FYI). I am hopeful Carolina can pull the mild upset this week and give us breathing room. If Panthers beat Lions and Chiefs beat Seahawks then we are guaranteed to still be in control entering week 17.

Lots to be disappointed about from last night, but the biggest thing for me is this: We had a chance last night to potentially cruise into the playoffs for the first time in a very long time. In 2020, 2015, 2012, 2007, and 2005 we clinched during the final game of the season. Last time we were in prior to the last week was 1999– we clinched that year the second to last game of season. In 1992, we lost our last game and had to wait until the next day to get help to get in. So in our 7 playoff trips since we easily clinched in 1991, we solidified our spot the last week of the season 6/7 times, with the exception coming second to last game. We would have been in prime position to do just that had we taken care of business last night. The Giants now fill that role and they are likely one win away from getting in. Which is where we would have been. We worked hard to get ourselves into that position and to let it slip away stings. That said, after the 1-4 start I obviously would have taken a scenario where we were the 7 seed with three games to go. The rooting guide for this week is quite simple: Panthers over Lions Chiefs over Seahawks These games are of equal importance to us. If they both lose, we can’t fall out of 7 seed even if we lose. And we will know that before our game (or shortly after) gets started. Chiefs are TEN point favorite over Seattle. It is still a huge game for KC as the #1 seed is still in their sights. Also probably somewhat helpful that they almost lost in Houston this week— unlikely Seattle can “sneak up” on them in any way— and Seahawks are without Lockett as well. Take nothing for granted in NFL as we see week after week, but I certainly feel confident that the Chiefs will help us here. I also very much think the Panthers can beat Detroit. Carolina is a three point underdog and most public bettors will take the Lions. Carolina controls their own playoff destiny and will be fully motivated for this game. I think it’s close to a 50/50 game. I said I thought the Lions would split their games with Jets/Panthers. Hopefully, I’m correct. We remain 6.5 point dogs at SF; right where it was before our game last night. We can also add Vikings over Giants as I suppose NYG going 0-3 is possible; just unlikely. We can also still pass Giants if we go 3-0 and they go 2-1, but that won’t matter as we’d clinch anyway if we go 3-0. So the only way the Giants can help us now is if we win 2/3 and they lose out. Was hoping to not be in this position, but here we are. Big Panthers and Chiefs fan this week.

That’s total nonsense. This team is short on quite a few things; but passion and guts is not on the list. They’ve played hard and with fire all year. Pretty much any time a team looks bad and/or loses, fans point to “heart”— and it’s almost never the case. Last night had zero to do with “want to” or effort. Zero.

It’s not a matter of any sort of purposeful “let up.” I do not expect the Niners to rest their players or anything like that at all. Think more human nature/law of averages.

Agree with your thinking on Niners game and said so prior to this week. It is very possible we simply aren’t good enough to beat them and it won’t matter, but the situation we are getting them in is as favorable as it could be for us. I do think it’s possible we can “ugly the game up” with them and keep it tight. Then like you said, maybe the rookie QB makes a mistake or two or we get some breaks. I don’t think the game is an auto-loss. That said, the Lions/Panthers game next week might be the most important game on the schedule for us. I absolutely think Carolina has a chance. They control their destiny to win their division; they will be ready to play. It would be wonderful if Carolina and Seattle both lose early— we then get a bit of a “house money” situation in our game where we’d be locked into the 7 seed still even with a loss.

I don’t think either of Lions road games will be easy. They are only 3 point favorites at Carolina. And week 18 in GB will be tricky for them if they need it. The Packers would absolutely give it their all in that game even if they are officially eliminated by then. I think the Lions finishing with 9 wins remains most likely for them. I also think Seattle finishes with 9 max. So yes if we finish 2-1, I think we’d get in. It would be awesome to get positive results early Saturday.

Well, pain. The road is not blocked— as a matter of fact we remain the 7 seed— but it certainly got much harder to navigate. The odds of passing the Giants are now slim. We must finish with one more win than them— so if we go 2-1, the only way we pass them is if they go 0-3. At this moment, I don’t think we should be focused on them… It’s about the Seahawks and Lions now. Each of those teams must pass us in wins. Lions at Panthers Seahawks at Chiefs We will know outcome of each of those games prior to our kickoff at SF. We control our destiny. If we beat SF, we are assured remaining the 7 seed. If we lose, either team can pass us by winning their game. If both of those teams lose, then we can’t fall out of playoffs-/ even with a loss at SF. Packers could enter mix a little— but I think it’s pretty clear we need 9 wins. And if we get 9, they can’t pass us. Packers only factor in 8 win scenarios.

I guess Dallas loss can be chalked up in the “good” column: —Makes it much more likely Dallas will be locked into 5 seed prior to week 18 —Leaves door cracked for US to play for 5 seed week 18 (which would mean we’ve already locked up a spot).