kleese

Let me put it this way— it probably isn’t in the Top 50 of the biggest wins during my lifetime. Considering it was a win-and-in situation that tells you all you need to know.

Because it was weird. We were 6-9 and the Eagles were trying to lose. Virtually empty stadium, CoVID year, etc… It didn’t feel too much like a big game.

Technically 2020. Last game of year at Philly was win-and-in, lose-and-out. That was strange all around, but it was a big game at the time.

Well, my final prediction is a sad one: I don’t think the Cowboys game will matter. As a gambler I can’t get past the obvious signs. Browns have to be the play. And it’s going to be hard for them to cover and NOT win (unless we win by exactly one point). I think Watson will have his best game so far and the game will stay uncomfortably close late into 4th. I’ll say he gets his first “moment” and Browns win 23-20. I am also predicting wins from the Lions and Bears, which would eliminate us before week 18– although I do think Vikings have a better chance to win that majority seem to think. I think they are a good bet at +3.5. Good news is that public sometimes wins too- I am hoping the “Joe Blow” bets come though on our game and we get it done. But following the system, Browns are the play.

The Cowboys game went “well” for us I’d say. They won and they had some guys get banged up. Assuming Eagles win Sunday (dangerous to assume anything in NFL) then I have a very hard time seeing the Cowboys putting much emphasis on our week 18 game. They certainly won’t push any of their gimpy players and I imagine they will sit others and/or pull them early. You can bet the game on Mybookie right now and we are favored by 4.5 already. Now, the players that DO play for Dallas will certainly play hard, but it is doubtful they will be showing their best 11 on each side of the ball. Obviously if Saints pull the upset, then everything changes. Although Philly would still have to lose AGAIN the next week to Giants in order for it to matter. I continue to HATE the Vegas angle on our game. It’s just sitting there at -2; begging the general public to take Washington. Scary.

The “due” factor is about the only thing Seattle has going for them this week. Very banged up, looks like they won’t have the fortune of facing Wilson for the Jets, and NYJ D is legit good. In other words, Jets are the better team here and their playoff lives are on the line as well. I think the Jets nip them if White has a competent game.

I’m “rooting” for Dallas tonight because the ideal scenario IMO would be for Dallas to win tonight (preferably easily) and then for Philly to clinch Sunday vs NOLA. That ensures Dallas has nothing on the line in our game, but would also mean they enter our game having won two in a row and feeling good about themselves and their momentum heading into playoffs. Would very much be a “get it over with” situation for them in week 18. If they were to lose to Titans maybe they’d feel a tad more obligated to good in some good reps before playoffs. Rooting for Dallas to win would of course backfire if Philly were to then to lose to Saints, but I don’t see that happening. Maybe NOLA keeps it tight, but I think Philly gets it done. My take on the other games affecting us this week: Bears at Lions: I’m not 100% handing this one to Detroit. I think they will win and it’s not a game I’ll be gambling on either as I think the 6 point spread is about right and is a coin flip. I ultimately think the Lions win on the strength of their offense putting up plenty of points. I do think Fields could give them major issues though and the Bears are clearly a team still giving it their all. Jets at Seahawks: I’d say I like the upset here, but the Jets are slight favorites. Jets D is really, really good. With White back their offense should be competent. I do wonder if maybe the Seahawks are just due— they’ve been in a bad way lately. They’ve lost three in a row at home as well which is odd for them. I like the Jets, but expect a close game and maybe Geno makes enough plays. Vikings at Packers: I like the reverse betting angle here quite a bit. Everyone is waiting for Minny to implode and they are a team the public keeps fading/expecting to crash. They are on road against a hot Packers team with playoff narratives swirling. Everyone will be on Green Bay. So I sort of like Minnesota to cover the 3.5 and I won’t be surprised at all if they win outright. Green Bay still isn’t all that great. That said, it’s a much more important game for Packers, it’s at home, etc so I will pick them to win on a late FG. So my prediction is that Seahawks lose and are eliminated. Lions and Packers both win (but won’t be surprised if either lose). If we win this would then set up a true must win situation in week 18; as there would be no way to get in with a loss— the Detroit/GB winner would go instead. It would also mean we are eliminated with a loss to Browns. My semi-realistic hope is— we win, and Seattle and ONE of GB or Detroit lose giving us to paths to make it in week 18

I don’t expect them to start the game sitting people— but their WC chances to get in at 8-9 are so low it’s not worth worrying about. And if they get to 9 wins, they win division so it doesn’t matter. I am sure they are concerned overly how poorly they’ve played as of late and would like to get some momentum before Jax, but they also know the game doesn’t matter and if things don’t go well early, they may very well choose to live to fight another day.

I am already worried. Browns have underachieved a bit this year with lots of losses that got away from them late— talent-wise we probably don’t have a huge advantage. On the balance of the season we’ve been a more well-coached team than Cleveland and we probably have a stronger strength (D) than they do. But it’s not like we have some sort of massive talent advantage. And it’s the NFL. Most games are close. I’d love nothing more than to go out there and beat them 31-10, but I doubt that’s in the cards. I am expecting a tough battle.

Game means nothing to Titans. They play Jags for division title in week 18 regardless of what happens in their game vs Dallas or Jax/Hou on Sunday. The Titans and Jags essentially have bye weeks in advance of their game. Doubtful Henry plays. Dallas will take care of business and it may not be pretty. That said, Philly will likely put the division to rest on Sunday vs NOLA and Dallas will be locked into 5 seed.

I think you are spot on in terms of what the Giants game did for attendance for this game. The Giants game was probably the big chance the team had this year to generate more interest in the final two home games. I would anticipate a small-ish crowd this Sunday, perhaps a vibrant one though, with a roughly 50/50 split. We all know what's coming in week 18-- will be 75/25 Dallas fans-- MAYBE slightly better for us if we beat Cleveland. The fact that the game won't mean anything for Cowboys won't matter to those fans that already purchased ticets. If it's win and in for us, maybe that creates a little more interest in our fans snatching up what's left out there last minute. But a poor outing or getting beat on plays doesn't mean you were flat or even ill-prepared. It's the NFL and the other teams have good players too. Sometimes, you get beat even if you were fully prepared and going 100%.

We will see as the week moves along where the line goes-- could still swing back, but in general, sharp money moves lines. In other words, the people that do it for a living. The public will likely be backing the Commanders thinking the line is short against a road team out of contention. But if the line continues to trend towards Browns, it means the big dogs are playing Cleveland. And that's generally the side you want to be on.

Browns fans are about as good/loyal as any group in the league. It's been awhile since they'd played in DC and the trips are infrequent in general. I anticipate a ton of Browns fans will be there and it may very well be a 50/50 type crowd.

I did not. I actually though that was a highly physical, old-school style game with both teams dropping the hammer on each other. Giants made fewer mistakes, had better QB play, and got a few more breaks.

Eh, I can't think of one game under RR where I've felt we weren't emotionally invested/prepared. Outplayed and out-coached? Sure. But I don't fear that the team will be flat. That's never really happened under RR. I also think the "nothing to play for" thing is totally overstated in the NFL. Teams/players/coaches don't just give up or stop trying. It's not like Watson is going to take a knee every snap or purposely throw interceptions. It's not like Myles Garrett is going to stand straight up and allow Lucas to block him out of the play. What COULD work in our favor is the Browns might not push any guys through injury that might normally give it a go. I also think in these situations if we got off to a really good start it's a tad more likely the Browns lose focus than if the game was earlier in the season. But these are NFL players playing for jobs, contracts, stats, pride, etc.. The motivation shouldn't be overly factored.

Looks like the line is creeping slightly closer to Pick Em'-- was sitting at Commaders -2.5 and now in some places it's -2 or even -1.5. As far a reading the Vegas signs, this isn't the way we want it to trend. Just as a reminder, the Giants mean NOTHING to our playoff chances at this point. Their results these last two weeks have ZERO impact on us making the playoffs. The only impact it could have would be we would finish as the 6 seed instead of 7 seed if we go 2-0 and they go 0-2.

Great question; it’s a unique situation for sure to have both of those as possibilities NOT the last week of season. I can’t think of any off hand in my lifetime of following the team. I need to go back and investigate 1996. That’s the only one that came to mind— this was the infamous (infamous to me at least) Romeo Bandison play. Second to last game of year vs Cardinals. We lost 27-26 and were eliminated. I can’t remember if winning would have clinched— I think we still needed to win vs Dallas the next week. Every fanbase hates their OC. I know Chiefs fans who aren’t over the moon for Bienemy. I will root for us to make it under any scenario and I’d be excited about a playoff game no matter how we got in. However, I agree with your premise here— if you can’t win this game to remain in control of your fate then it’s really hard to cry over it too much. It will just mean we weren’t as good as I thought we were three weeks ago and if somehow we remained alive going into week 18 it would be a stroke of great fortune.

Vikings definitely won’t lay down this week, but the Packers are favored by 3 for a reason. I anticipate both the Lions and Packers will win Sunday— neither is a lock of course, and I do think Chicago has a punchers chance against that awful Lions D. I kinda think the Jets will beat the Seahawks if White plays— won’t call it an upset as right now it’s Seahawks -1. I think our ideal semi-realistic scenario would be: We win Seahawks lose One of Lions/Packers loses That would give us two paths in week 18. A win or a loss from the Lions or Packers. As a reminder, if we win this week and do not clinch, you can pretty much be assured our game will be at 4:25 week 18 along with any other games that affect the WC. If it winds up being meaningless it will be at 1pm or MAYBE even Saturday if they feel there are no good options for that day.

The fact that GB won today and the Packers and Lions play week 18 really complicates the scenarios where we make it by going 1-1. Now, if one or both of those teams lose this week, then it reopens some of those possibilities. But if the Lions and Packers both win this week, it then renders the Seahawks irrelevant to us. And again, if we lose and the Lions and Packers win, it’s lights out for us before we even get to week 18. “Backing into” the playoffs is still possible, but that has become a pretty fanciful possibility. I think we are looking at a scenario where 2-0 gets us in 100%, 0-2 is 0% and 1-1 is probably 25% or less.

Point spreads are live on my bookie for three of the four games we care about: Commanders -2.5 vs Browns Lions -5 vs Bears Seahawks -1.5 vs Jets Packers isn’t official yet, but I’m seeing Green Bay -3 most places I think all four of these games will have “live dogs” fully capable of pulling the upset.

Yes. In addition we’d need the Packers, Lions, and Seahawks to lose. If all that happened, we’d clinch. That certainly seems far-fetched. What I think is slightly more realistic would be we win, Lions win and maybe we get lucky and Packers and Seahawks lose. Then we would have two paths in week 18– win and in OR Lions loss.

The only way we control our destiny week 18 with a LOSS to Cleveland: —Bears beat Lions —Jets beat Seahawks —Vikings beat Packers So we have very likely run out of mulligans. I am also 99% sure we can no longer make playoffs at 7-9-1; so no need to even investigate the “0-2 finish” possibilities. If Dallas loses Thursday, Eagles clinch. If Eagles beat Saints, Eagles clinch. In all likelihood, Dallas will be locked into 5 seed come week 18.

Odd choice for SNF considering Pitt can be eliminated prior to that game kicking off. But along with that announcement they announced entire schedule for week and we indeed stay at 1pm on FOX. No

The Green Bay win today lowers our odds of us getting in a 8-8-1. It also introduces the possibility we could be eliminated next week: —We lose —Packers and Lions both win That would be it for us because either Green Bay or Detroit would get to 9 wins in week 18. I’m honestly not sure if those teams tied in week 18 what would happen if all three were 8-8-1; but I THINK Detroit would be in. If we lose and one or both of Detroit/Green Bay lose, we’d still be alive entering week 18.

One thing to note: Giants are immaterial to us making playoffs now. Their results don’t matter to us one bit in terms of being in or out. Yes, we can still pass them— but the only way that happens is if we go 2-0 and they go 0-2. And if we go 2-0 we are in anyway. It’s possible we could pass them and be the 6 seed and they either fall to 7 seed or out entirely, but they can’t be the ones to keep us out. Their week 18 game vs Eagles won’t mean anything to us as far as making it or not goes. And here is a little potential scheduling wrinkle for you. As mentioned a few pages back, the week 17 schedule is NOT set yet. The NFL invoked their 6 day right. They are awaiting results of Sat/Sun to set the schedule for New Year’s Day. The SNF game next week is Rams/Chargers. No chance that stays. With the Panthers win, their game at Tampa is now guaranteed to be for the division lead regardless of what Tampa does vs Arizona. I think Panthers-Bucs is pretty close to being a lock to flex into SNF. The current 4:25 game is Vikings/Packers. It is a “standalone” which is usually reserved for the absolute best match ups. This one is pretty weak. But if the Packers beat the Dolphins tomorrow, Green Bay is guaranteed to be alive for that game even if we beat the Browns earlier that day. If Green Bay loses to Miami, they will not be eliminated yet— but they WOULD be if we beat Browns. So if Miami beats Green Bay, they would be risking their week 17 stand-alone game meaning very little… UNLESS they also move our game to 4:25. So, if Miami beats Green Bay tomorrow, don’t be shocked if we wind up at 4:25 (likely cross-flexed to CBS as well) next week.