kleese

Just saw this— covered it in the other thread, but in the crazy scenario where this was the decision, we’d need a win and a Seahawks loss. The Packers-Lions game wouldn’t matter— I THINK I’d it ended in a tie, the Packers would be eliminated. So we’d need Seattle to lose.

I say don’t overthink it. This is an unprecedented situation and it’s obvious the NFL had little to no choice and no one is getting “screwed.” You only get screwed when there is a viable alternative (ie, the ref NOT calling illegal motion). I would just call it no contest, Bills and Bengals play 16 games, Chiefs likely get 1 seed, and you play playoffs as you would with no other changes. Yes, that really benefits KC, but once you start trying to level it, I think you make it worse.

Simple.. we win, Seahawks lose, we’d be in. This assumes no tie in Packers-Lions game. This would seem like asinine solution though. It makes a very SMALL amount of sense in AFC as a way to level playing field for the fortunate #1 seed (probably Chiefs). But it makes zero sense to do so in NFC and punish the (probably) Eagles for no reason. You can have 8 in AFC and 7 in NFC without screwing anything up. Am I “rooting” for it? Ha, sure, why not. But I can’t imagine it has any legs and I will fall out of my chair if that’s what they landed on. Go Rams!!

1980’s RFK 10 Cardinals 0

I remember Ed Werder did an in-depth story on our off-season spending/plans during the summer of 2000 that ran on ESPN. I believe Snyder was featured prominently in it. I can remember scarcely few other “sit down” type interviews with him over the years. My only real recollections have been the required pressers for coach hirings, etc.

I am sure he will not be there. Probably a good thing though. Likely he means he’s mentally checked out as well as physically. There is no way for me to know this, but my gut tells me he doesn’t have any fight left in him as far as retaining the team goes. My guess is whatever level of “fun” he was still having is long gone now. Small part of me worries maybe he’s just laying super low with the infection to try and emerge again when things have quieted down, but I think we are past that point and I think he (and his family) know it. I wouldn’t be surprised if we never really “see” him again. I would imagine the whispers and rumors will start swirling right after the season ends this weekend.

Yep, I was pained by the loss and end of the season because I was enjoying the week to week this year and was looking forward to possible playoffs. But this will be an easy year to smoothly transition to the off-season. I am sure the news/rumors will start early and there will be something coming to light almost daily. I think it’s likely we see almost no actual movement in terms of staff or personnel which might be a little frustrating, but it will be for a good reason. And yes, if/when it gets finalized, it will be a celebratory atmosphere and I imagine all kinds of stuff will start happening almost immediately.

I think people are over-blowing the motivation angle. It’s not like the Lions will prepare for the game all week, go through warm ups, get hyped, and then if Seattle wins, decide to just allow themselves to be run over on SNF. Actually if I am a GB fan I think I’d rather Seattle lose— then Detroit has same on line and thus same pressure. I think I’d rather that than to have Detroit relaxed and angry and play the game with an F it mentality.

We've discussed this before, so if I've used this example already please forgive me-- but one of the nerdiest things I do is watch old games on youtube-- sucker for nostalgia. One thing that stands out is that we (the royal "we") probably adhere to a lot of revisionist history when it comes to football (and probably everything) of the past. Was watching some games this year and was reminded that I'd totally forgotten about the "QB in the grasp" rule they instituted in the 80's-- I think they did away or revised it several years later. But it was crazy. I would say the whistle was blowing WAY earlier than it does now-- the roughing calls weren't as sensitive, but they were blowing the whistle dead almost every time a defensive player touched the QB. And the refs were all really old, slow, and made some absolutely egregious calls-- significantly worse than what we see now. I've said this before-- I miss a lot of that stuff, just because I miss being a kid, that time in my life, a time in the country when technology hadn't take over, etc. I don't necessarily think the football was better. The QB play certainly wasn't. But to the greater point-- yes, absolutely-- an ownership change is now the only way the organization can truly get a fresh start. He's exhausted all other opportunities to re-engaged the fans. His 9 lives are all gone. I like to think that finally, deep down, perhaps persuaded by his wife and family, he realizes this too now. How can it be fun? I understand pride is powerful, especially for a guy like Dan-- but everyone has their limits. I believe he has to have reached his. There is no way out here for him. I bet his family is telling him as much finally. Unlike many, I honestly harbor no ill will towards him. I know he is a terrible football owner. He also seems like a bad guy. But in the end, I don't KNOW that-- and I don't care to either. I never cared what kind of person JKC was either-- I imagine he had quite a fair share of enemies as well and based on some stories, his "style" wouldn't exactly play well today. But he was a good owner and knew how to handle an org and that's all that ever mattered to me. When Dan goes, I don't care what happens to him. I don't wish harm on him. He can sail off with his $7B. He will be gone. I will still be here. That's what matters to me. **Side note** My lack of posting the history stuff (and just in general) has much more to do with life in general than any sort of lack of interest/energy. My kids are 13, 11, and 6 now-- busy slate to say the least. I am also on Twitter quite a bit now for updates and such so I check ES less often for news. I imagine by halftime, the game will be pretty meaningless for Dallas too. Giants have to beat Philly in order for it to matter. Eagles are FOURTEEN point favorites at home. Game means nothing to Giants. Yes, Dallas will probably go through the motions of taking the game seriously as they'd be stupid to not at least prepare for the game like it really matters-- just in case. But my bet is by halftime-ish, everything is more or less decided and the funeral can commence.

For those that have bantered with me over the years, you know my personal position: Dan Snyder and this 23 year run of misery did not "ruin" my fandom. I've remained as "all in" as I was in 1991. I have still enjoyed being a fan of the team over the past 23 years-- now, please note, I haven't always enjoyed the seasons, the players, the teams, etc. but I do still enjoy my fandom-- the rhythm of football season, the caring about wins and losses-- and I've embraced the rare (and fleeting) wins or moments. Even this year was very much "worth" investing for me-- watched the Eagles game at my parents house with my two oldest kids (my son is 11 now and really got into it this year). That was a fun night. The next week we drove to Houston and watched us beat the Texans-- fun trip/fun memories. Thanksgiving week was made better by our good play and being involved in the race-- we then had the thrilling end to the Falcons game. If nothing else, that was a very fun several week run culminating around the Thanksgiving holiday. Spent some good times with the kids enjoying those games and discussing playoff possibilities, etc. Obviously, the ensuing five weeks have been a slow ride to depression. A familiar feeling indeed. I had a bad feeling all week about Cleveland game and it came to fruition yesterday, And yes, it still hurt me. Quite a bit. Was looking forward to week 18 meaning something and was really hopeful to be involved in WC weekend-being involved is great. I am very bummed about the abrupt end to what looked fairly promising just one month ago. The SNF loss to Giants will likely be the one that always lingers from this year. I think for some, they view me being so invested over the years as equaling being some sort of apologist for Snyder. This is not the case. I've done my best to explain this; that I am able to separate my personal fandom from Snyder himself. Some don't get that. Which is fine. I don't begrudge anyone who has bailed or scaled back. Just a personal choice over the years for me. Snyder owes me nothing. I know who he is and what he's done. I've made the choice to squeeze what I can out of it year to year anyway. Always telling myself that maybe someday it will be even better for me if they do reach high highs again that I stuck it out. But make no mistake, I am THRILLED the end might be in sight for the Snyder era. A new owner guarantees nothing. He could be really bad too. But he won't be Snyder. And there will at least be renewed hope and energy that is REAL and not just make-up covering up the giant blemish. Normally, I'd cringe at the thought of the scene this Sunday. We are out, Dallas is in. FedEx will legit be 75% or more Dallas fans. It will be Jerry-World East. Probably equal to or greater than any takeover we've ever seen before. And I can't help but think back to September 1999. Snyder's first game as owner. I was a senior in college, watching from a house I rented with friends in Norman, OK. I remember it was a bright and sunny day. Took that 35-14 lead. Blew it. Aikman rips our hearts out in OT. I stormed off. Crushing loss- still the worst opening week loss we (or at least I) have ever suffered. A beautiful day at FedEx ruined. If we only knew.... I wasn't there that day of course, but I imagine it was a sellout, with probably 90% + Redskins fans. Fast forward 23 years... same place, same teams... but almost nothing else is recognizable. What took place in between has been the slow destruction and erosion of an org and fanbase. It has reached the level of hopelessness that it has because many came to realization that as long as Snyder remained, there can be no meaningful change. And we know he's not going anywhere, so therefore, there is no hope. But now there is. I won't celebrate until we hear the sale is going through. I will put nothing past him and put nothing past our luck-- maybe he is faking all along-- maybe something will happen that makes it fall through. No parade until it's done. But I do think it's over. I believe we will have a new owner this spring. It will not fix things overnight. Dallas fans will still take over FedEx in 2023.. but hopefully a new owner can renew hope to a level where we become "normal" at least again. And hopefully maybe even better than that. Sunday will be a mess; but maybe not quite as "sad" as in the past. Maybe it will feel more redemptive. Like today is the LAST day of THIS. Yesterday, as the game ended, I buried my face in my hat for a moment. I was bummed. Still am. I'd prefer to be playing for the playoffs Sunday. But at the same time I turned to my family and said "maybe today was the last painful loss under Snyder." And if it was, I guess it really wasn't a loss at all.

No doubt, totally agree. We have a roster that is probably more like a 10-11 win roster with a solid/league average QB. But we do not have a solid/league average QB, therefore it's like Russian Roulette week to week-- sometimes we got the blank chamber. Late in the year... not so fortunate.

For fun (or torture) I wanted to see what the landscape would be had we won the game at Meadwolands instead of tied. My contention at the time was that the tie was unlikely to hurt us much— and was much better than a loss. And considering even after losing to Giants at home and at SF we still controlled our destiny, I’d say that was borne out. The other asterisk here is that once you change any result you can’t just assume future results would have all gone the same way. So after that Samuel run into Giant territory in OT— had we gone ahead and won the game right there— who knows what else happens. Maybe Giants collapse and we beat them in Washington as well and we waltz into playoffs. And I bet TH remains starter for sure. But let’s assume we win at Giants and then everything else goes exactly as it has. We would have a wild week 18 with the Packers, Lions, Seahawks, Giants, and Commanders all at 8-8 with two spots on the line. We will also assume the Lions and Packers don’t tie. I know that if we beat Dallas we’d for sure finish ahead of Giants. We’d also finish ahead of loser of Packers-Lions. If Green Bay won, we’d also finish ahead of them. I’m honestly not sure what the deal would be with Seattle because it would go all the way down to strength of victory tie-breaker. I THINK we win though because the Philly and Dallas wins would likely push us over. So I THINK we’d control our own destiny this week. And we could potentially even get in with a loss if Seattle and Giants also lost. But had we just won the tied game, I believe we’d control our destiny week 18 even with the subsequent three game losing streak. So… ouch.

As a side note, I believe our 2023 results-based opponents are close to set now… We will play at Denver We will host Chicago Will we travel to Carolina or Atlanta (whoever finishes last— I don’t think New Orleans can now)

With that last Packers TD, the nail in coffin has been delivered. Such a disappointing end. I started this thread like I do every year around mid season except in the off year we are 2-7 or something like that. I started the thread on November 11th when we were 4-5 after Minny loss before going to Philly. At that time I did so assuming we’d be 4-6 and was digesting scenarios from there. After we got to 7-5, I think it shifted from “worthy of looking at possibilities” to “legit playoff contender that might be able to make some noise.” But from the 10-0 lead at Meadowlands, to right now— it’s been a total downer. The killer of course was the SNF loss to Giants. That will likely be the game I remember most from this year. I did enjoy the season overall— at least as much as you can these days. I watched the MNF win with my kids and then we were in the building for the win at Houston the next week. Atlanta win was also thrilling. That made for a VERY nice stretch of football over Thanksgiving and I did wake up on Jan 1st still very much caring about the game. So for me personally as a fan, that’s a “win” for the season. I cared about game #1 and I cared about game #16 on New Year’s Day. That isn’t always the case. This feels a little like 2016 where at one point I thought the team might be legit good and then it ended with a thud— also on NYD I might add. Thread is dead, just like the 2022 season now. Probably the most lively thread we’ve ever had. Thanks to those who contributed— even the ones who seem to miss the point of it yearly Hopefully I can start another one next year.

Energy has been zapped, but we’ve come this far with the thread… Packers win eliminates us Packers loss keeps us alive Seahawks loss + Packers loss would make us or Lions going into week 18. Seahawks win + Packers loss and we would need to win and have both Seattle and Packers lose. And of course, Eagles loss keeps Dallas division hopes alive. Although now Giants have nothing on line week 18 either.

They will not do that. Have set it up to make sure the scenarios align on schedule for the past 15 years or so. No doubt if Saints beat Philly, Dallas is sort of then obligated to take week 18 seriously, but they will also know their odds are still slim— and it’s possible by halftime of our game or something they would see Eagles comfortably ahead or something like that.

Also have to understand that the Eagles ALSO must lose to Giants in week 18 in order for Dallas to win division. And if Giants win this week, they clinch and have nothing to play for week 18– as a matter of fact, if they beat the Colts they may PREFER to lose week 18 if it sends them to Minny potentially as opposed to SF. Dallas needs a lot more help than just one Eagles loss here. But yes, they would sort of be obligated to try week 18 if the Saints win this week.

Browns made a controversial and costly move to trade for Watson. They NEED this to work out well for them and if he ended strong it would let the org breathe a bit more easily in off season. And they don’t have their first round pick so incentive there either.

Maybe. I don’t think the players will try any less hard now that they are eliminated and there isn’t any additional pressure— coaches might call the game more freely, less conservative, etc.

Without question, it appears the Browns are the “sharp” side on this game and I hate that. Having said that, as a gambler, the house loses and the public wins too— quite often actually. So sometimes my skin will crawl on a line, I’ll take what appears to be the sharp side… and lose. So it’s not a lock by any means. But I agree with your general take: player for player these two teams are probably about dead-even talent-wise. And Browns certainly have the more talented QB. And the “nothing to play for” thing works in their FAVOR this week— drives me nuts when people don’t realize that. If a team is in playoffs and clinched, THAT is a team you can sometimes take advantage of because they are looking ahead, willing to rest players, not take chances, perhaps already prepping for the playoffs and not fully focused on opponent that week. But when a team is out of race, they have no reason NOT to play all out. They all know their season is over in two more games. This is their last chance to make an impression, hit incentives, maybe even save their job in some cases. And there is no pressure in terms of what a loss would do to team standing. I would have preferred Cleveland win last week and still have a glimmer of playoff hope. This is a bad spot and I have a bad feeling. I’m also too emotionally attached to my team and probably prone to expect worst. But in my normal weekly gambling picks, this is a game where I 100% would have the Browns circled.

Ha, obviously meant Packers, not Bears. Too much of this swirling in my head.

Let me put it this way— it probably isn’t in the Top 50 of the biggest wins during my lifetime. Considering it was a win-and-in situation that tells you all you need to know.

Because it was weird. We were 6-9 and the Eagles were trying to lose. Virtually empty stadium, CoVID year, etc… It didn’t feel too much like a big game.

Technically 2020. Last game of year at Philly was win-and-in, lose-and-out. That was strange all around, but it was a big game at the time.

Well, my final prediction is a sad one: I don’t think the Cowboys game will matter. As a gambler I can’t get past the obvious signs. Browns have to be the play. And it’s going to be hard for them to cover and NOT win (unless we win by exactly one point). I think Watson will have his best game so far and the game will stay uncomfortably close late into 4th. I’ll say he gets his first “moment” and Browns win 23-20. I am also predicting wins from the Lions and Bears, which would eliminate us before week 18– although I do think Vikings have a better chance to win that majority seem to think. I think they are a good bet at +3.5. Good news is that public sometimes wins too- I am hoping the “Joe Blow” bets come though on our game and we get it done. But following the system, Browns are the play.