kleese

The caveat here is the ever-changing landscape of the NFL schedule. Adding the W1 Friday game, adding the Black Friday game, adding the MNF DHs, adding the Wednesday Christmas games and more Sat games later in year, et. I think the last few years the league went out of their way to avoid us in more prominent spots for obvious reasons. Now, I think that particular cloud has lifted. For sure, the on-field product isn’t enough to make them want to feature us, but I’d bet we get placed in a few more second tier national slots than most would expect.

Been awhile since we opened with Dallas… 2010, right? Am I forgetting one? So that has crossed my mind, but as you correctly point out.. Dallas is almost always in one of the marquee W1 spots. We know Chiefs, Eagles, and Packers will be accounted for PRIOR to Sunday… so you need a big time SNF game, a good option at 4:25 and probably at least a decent choice for MNF that doesn’t involve any of those 3 teams. You’d think Cowboys for sure factor in there with the Niners, Ravens, Lions being in mix as well. The only way we land in a big W1 slot is if it’s vs Dallas. Right now I’m leaning to a ho-hum opener… at home v Titans or Panthers; maybe on road at Tampa.

I create this thread yearly… while most fans are deep in draft mocks, I am dreaming of the schddule release and those mocks. As avid of a fan as I am, I do not enjoy much draft talk as I think no one really knows anything. But we DO know that a 17 game schedule will be released sometime in mid May and that’s even more important to me than the draft because every year when the schedule drops, it’s like MY schedule for the fall is being released as well. I started doodling mock schedules on my folders at school in the 80s and 90s— back when the scheduling rules and patterns were less set in stone. Also clearly remember checking the newspaper daily from sometime in late March as there was never any sort of announcement in advance. One day it was just there (used to be released much earlier in spring). As far as the 2024 schedule goes, we don’t know much… and I’d take any rumors at this point with a grain of salt. Rumors swirled that the first Brazil game was going to be Browns-Eagles and turns out it will be Packers-Eagles. We do know who (and where) we will play. What else do we know? —Bears, Jaguars, Vikings designated as London teams. I THINK this means they will “host” those games— we do not play road games with any of them. —Panthers designated for Germany. We host them this year so I don’t believe we’d be eligible for that either. Only asterisk would be if there isn’t a home or road designation for those games yet. But I don’t expect us to be on the International slate this year. —We will not be opening up on the first Thurs or Fri of season. Chiefs will host Thursday and we do not play them. Eagles will play Packers that Friday from Brazil, so we obviously also know Eagles won’t be our week 1 opponent. Gonna wait until post-draft to drop Mock 1.0; in general, I’d expect us to be handed a “modest” allocation of games on the national plate. Probably 1-2 more marquee spots than we’ve gotten the last couple of years for mostly obvious reasons. It was a surprise last year we weren’t on MNF—especially with the added games; I expect that to change this year. I WILL be surprised if we land on SNF; only way I see that is if it’s one of the Dallas games; probably early in the year. The NFL tries to limit travel for Thursday games, so I’m leaning hard to predicting at Ravens could be our Thursday game this season. I would not expect us on Thanksgiving this year.

It’s officially official: we done. Only thing left now is to find out our finalized 2024 opponents. Three games still TBA. If season ended today we’d play at Arizona, host the Titans, and I think play the Bears again.

I actually think we will play fairly well and cover the 6.5 points Sunday. It’s hung under 7 all week… sometimes that’s a strong tell because no doubt the public money will all be going on Rams.

Breaking all kinds of new ground this season.... The final score on Thanksgiving was the 20th NFL game to end 45-10 with 19/20 being in the regular season. The lone playoff game was the Patriots smoking the Broncos in the 2013 Divisional round (the Tebow year for Denver). Of the 19 regular season games, Washington has been involved in four-- all on the losing end. 1985: Loss at Bears 1998: Loss vs 49ers 2013: Loss vs Chiefs 2023: Loss at Cowboys --1985 was a rarity in the Gibbs era-- a blowout loss. 1985 wasn't a great year for the team. Really struggled with a team getting older. Joey T going down to LT on MNF and being replaced by Schroeder actually gave the team a bump to a stronger finish-- early to middle part of season was a bit rough. That day in Chicago we led 7-0 at halftime and then proceeded to give up 31 second quarter points. This Jim McMahon threw a TD pass to Walter Payton and Walter Payton threw a TD pass to Jim McMahon. Joey T has had his infamous 7 yard punt in this game. --It would be 14 seasons before another NFL game ended 45-10, and it was us doing the honors again. Expectations were high in 1998, but a bad loss week one to Giants sucked a lot of life out of the team. The next week our home opener was on MNF vs the Niners. Much like the Bears game, we jumped out to a 7-0 lead--- then the wheels fell off. It was 21-10 at halftime (just like Thanksgiving this year) and then a total drubbing in second half en route to our 0-7 start that season. --We were 3-9 entering the Chiefs game in 2013, so it didn't really hurt per se, but it did wind up being sort of the symbolic end to the Shanny and RG3 era with the now famous halftime pic of the nearly empty stadium on a snowy day. It's pretty hard to give up 38 points in a half, but we accomplished that this game. --No need to rehash Thanksgiving, but I'll point out that I was there-- actually thought we were competitive up until the failed the fourth and one midway through third quarter. Total meltdown from there. The game against Miami was not only a Washington Scorigami and it was an NFL scorigami! First time in NFL history a game has ended 45-15. Maybe we can make it two games in a row vs Rams

I don’t think the Rams game is a long shot per se. Now if our team has truly just quit and thrown in the towel, then sure, it won’t matter who they play. But assuming the team prepares normally and plays at a normal expected NFL level, the Rams game is likely within reach for them. The spread being under a TD is a bit of a tell as well.

Actually I did just that! Check the playoff thread.

OK, I just had to…. if we finish 8-9 there are a number of scenarios that get us in. None of them require ties or extreme results either. I’d put the chances of us making it at 8-9 somewhere around 35% or thereabouts. If we win our next two then I’d say we’d for sure still be alive Christmas morning. Let’s not discuss the odds of us going 4-0 though. But yes I am aware of who would be the most preferable teams to lose should we start to win.

I tried to resist going to the Playoff Machine, I really did. But I ultimately couldn’t resist. Let me just say, there is a not-so-far-fetched scenario where we would get in if we go 8-9. Just. Sayin’.

This thread is about as close to dead as the team is… but because going 5-0 would probably give us better than a 75% chance of making it I guess we can go through the playoff motions for another week. I do believe BOTH the Vikings and Seahawks are in danger of a major crash down stretch. That said, the odds of us going 5-0 are hilarious. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if we are game vs Miami next week. I’ll probably at least be betting us to cover spread that day.

Second week in a row I’m a little surprised at how rare this final score has been over league history. Our game was only the 16th instance of 31-19. Being the NFL Films nerd that I am, I immediately thought of Super Bowl 14 when our game went final…Steelers over Rams following the 1979 season; a somewhat surprisingly fun/competitive game. All other games took place in regular season. This was the first time in franchise history a game has ended 31-19. Oddly enough, had the score remained 24-19 that also would have been a franchise first. Didn’t really find anything of note in the other 15 games (besides the SB of course). First game took place in 1951 (49ers over Packers). The most recent 13 games have all taken place since 1985. All I got.

So, obviously that was a major blow— considering odds wouldn’t have been awesome even with a win over Giants. The following are my personal percentages and nothing official, but for the sake of the thread… If we go 6-0 that will be 100% in playoffs 5-1 I think around 75-80% we’d be in 4-2 closer to 25-30%; I still think a total collapse from Minny or Seattle is possible so a team getting in at 8-9 isn’t totally off the table. 3-3 or worse is likely less than 5% and basically 0% My goal was to be 6-7 heading to Los Angeles. The thinking there was obviously beat the Giants and then find a way to beat either Dallas or Miami. Now of course they would need to win BOTH of those games. Eh… I guess you could move the goalposts and make the goal to be 7-8 heading to play the Niners. That would at least keep them alive at Christmas. That requires winning 3/4. Again, eh… But I won’t stop tracking the thread entirely until they hit their 10th loss or they are mathematically eliminated. Shock the universe on Thursday and they have life again. I’ll be at the game; for the record, I’ll predict it lands right around the Vegas number. We won’t get humiliated but it won’t be close late either. Sort of a workmanlike 30-20 type of win for Dallas.

If you want any tidbits of useless information…. I’m your man!

This result was a little more thin historically than I would have guessed. I know 29 is a fairly odd number, but figured any three point spread in the 20's would have a decent amount of results. However, this was only the 11th time in NFL history a game finished 29-26. All games played in the regular season. The first was Bucs win over the Baltimore Colts in 1979. There was then a 16 year drought... the other 10 games have occurred between 1995-2023. It had been almost five years to the day since the last one (Colts over Jags Nov. 11th 2018). This was the second Washington game to ever end 29-26 We lost at Minnesota 29-26 in early November 2014. That game was mildly notable to me... It was sort of the "that's it" game for the 2014 season. We probably weren't going anywhere anyway that year (Gruden first season), but we were 3-5 heading into the game and may have had a chance to make things interesting had we won. I also remember it for two other reasons... It was played outdoors at the Univ. of Minnesota during the Metrodome renovations... and it was the last decent game I can remember RG3 playing for us. It was a pretty fun back and forth game. We took a lead late, but failed to make a two point conversion, which made it 26-21. Vikings followed with a TD drive. We failed to cross midfield on our final drive. So we are now 0-2 in 29-26 games, both on road. Tried to dig into any other notable games and didn't find much: --October 2001, Patriots 29, Chargers 26... win for Pats in OT; I assume this was Brady's first OT win. They were down 10 with about 3:30 to play and wound up sending it to OT on a TD pass from Brady with about 30 seconds to go. Would have been one of his first "moments." --This wasn't the first 29-26 game for Ron Rivera... In 2015, the Panthers blew a 23-6 lead to the Colts, but wound up winning in OT... this made them 7-0 on the season. --5 of the 11 games involved EITHER the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts OR the Baltimore Ravens That's all I got

Interesting..: I just tried to find some “look ahead” lines..:: I found two reputable sites that have a line posted for the Thanksgiving game. One is -9.5 and one is -7. That’s a pretty big difference. Will see where it ultimately lands.

In terms of the Vegas angle, the lean has to be Giants here. Some curious movement. It opened at -10 and now sits -8 in some spots. That’s significant movement and that’s with several key Giants in concussion protocol and probably little incentive for them to move them out. As a gambler I don’t really like this game either way, but I’d advise anyone who places wagers to be a bit wary on this one. Right now I’m thinking a 6-8 point win for Commanders. And then people will make the dumb mistake of thinking if they can’t blow out the Giants that it means they can’t hang with Cowboys and we could be in a reverse position on Thanksgiving. As a matter of fact, if you are hoping to place $$ on Washington on Turkey Day, the best possible outcome this Sunday would probably be an ugly Washington win that most people brush off.

Yep, Hawkins had a big TD catch/run as well. Our D had all kinds of trouble that day.

I also actually think the Seahawks are still in play… IF they lose to Rams this week (I’ll be picking the Rams). Yes, it’s a tall mountain with them owning the tie-breaker, but let’s say they lose this week to drop to 6-4. Next four games: 49ers at Cowboys at 49ers Eagles That is a brutal stretch. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think they come out of that 7-7. They then go at Tennessee and Pitt back in Seattle. I don’t think 9+ wins for Seahawks is anywhere close to a given; I do think the key is them losing this week in Los Angeles. So I would say we have a few (at least mild) rooting interests this week: Rams over Seahawks Broncos over Vikings At this point I don’t see much value in looking at the teams tied/below us. Beat the Giants on Sunday and there is a really good chance we will be on those playoff tracker lists as the first team out in NFC heading to Dallas.

I think we’d have to look VERY bad against the Giants for the line to be that high. Consider Dallas is -10.5 v Carolina this week… I understand that’s on road, but still. I think it’s more likely our line with them lands in the 7-8.5 range.

Today was a death blow to any realistic prayer of the 5/6 seed. It’s 7 seed or bust now and while “bust” appears more likely, facing the Giants next week could provide an opportunity to stay in mix. To me the key is being 6-7 heading into the Rams/Jets games. That would represent an opportunity to then get to 8-7 and that would most likely put us right at top of the 7 seed convo with two weeks to go. In order to get to 6-7, the Giants game is of course a must. Then we’d need to beat either Dallas or Miami. Minnesota is the fly in the ointment of the 7 seed mix currently but I’m not ready to crown them. Could be some “come down to earth” possibilities with them in coming weeks. Beat the Giants, Vikes lose, and you’re one game back. I would say most importantly, beat the Giants and the Thanksgiving game is at least relevant.

I was afraid this might happen... as the game wore on, I started thinking it could land 20-17, knowing full well that is the most common final score in NFL history. So, here goes: This was the 286th time in NFL history a game finished 20-17; easily the most common final score. Of those 286 games, 9 came in the post-season with one Super Bowl (2001: Patriots 20, Rams 17). Washington has fared well in the 31 different 20-17 games they've played going 20-11. 1951: Win at Chicago Cardinals 1956: Win at Cleveland Browns 1974: Win vs Miami Dolphins 1975: Loss at St. Louis Cardinals 1976: Win at Philadelphia Eagles 1977: Loss at New York Giants 1978: Loss at Atlanta Falcons 1980: Loss at Denver Broncos 1986: Win at St. Louis Cardinals 1988: Win at Green Bay Packers 1988: Loss at Cincinnati Bengals 1992: Win vs Dallas Cowboys 1995: Win vs Carolina Panthers 1997: Loss vs Baltimore Ravens 1999: Win vs Philadelphia Eagles 2000: Win vs Carolina Panthers 2000: Win vs Tampa Bay Bucs 2001: Win vs Arizona Cardinals 2002: Win vs St. Louis Rams 2003: Win vs New England Patriots 2003: Loss vs Carolina Panthers 2005: Win vs Seattle Seahawks 2006: Loss at Tampa Bay Bucs 2008: Win at Seattle Seahawks 2009: Loss at Carolina Panthers 2010: Win at Jacksonville Jaguars 2014: Win at Dallas Cowboys 2016: Loss at Detroit Lions 2018: Win vs Dallas Cowboys 2022: Loss vs Minnesota Vikings 2023: Win at New England Patriots Overall: 20-11 11-3 Home; 9-8 Road Some odd trends: --Seems strange that between 1937-1991, they only played one home game that ended 20-17 --Then, no road games ended 20-17 between 1989-2005 --They've played more 20-17 games v Panthers than any other opponent (only once vs Giants) Some game notes: --1974 game Miami led at half 10-0 and was just 10-3 going into the 4th. Wild fourth quarter ensued with Redskins pulling it out late. Two of the better teams of the early to mid 70's and a rematch of the SB from two years prior. --1975 loss at Cardinals... I THINK this was the "Mel Gray TD catch" game. --1976 win at Vet in Philly was in OT on MNF --1977 win vs Giants was the first game played after the birth of yours truly five days prior --1980 loss at Denver was MNF... Art Monk caught a TD in that game... his rookie year... not sure if that may have been his first --1988 at Packers was not at Lambeau; back then the Packers played a couple of games per year in Milwaukee... an ugly win --I remember the loss at Cincy in 1988 very clearly. Last game of season on a Saturday afternoon. We stumbled down the stretch in 1988 and had been eliminated from playoffs, but at that age every game still really mattered to me. We lost in OT and it left us 7-9 that year-- the only losing season in the first Gibbs run as coach. Also hard to believe the season ended BEFORE Christmas. --The 1992 win at RFK vs Dallas is still easily in my top 5 wins/memories of all time. Such an incredible game with a wild ending. It was one of those memories where the details of the game and the day itself have remained very sharp for me-- I remember the weather where I was and what we had for dinner. Just a fun, exhilarating, satisfying win. It kept the dreams of a repeat SB run alive. --"The Bam Morris" game in 1997 still bugs me --The two wins in 2000 both came early in the year. In both games, the offense struggled and the defense carried us. This would of course become a theme for the entire 2000 season. --The wins in 2002 (Rams) and 2003 (Patriots) were probably the two best/most exciting wins of the Spurrier era. Heck in 2003, that got us to 3-1 and I thought we might be off a running. It would also be the Pats last loss before their historic winning streak. --The 2005 win vs Seattle was fun. Our last 3-0 start to a season. We had it, blew it, and then got lucky that Josh Brown missed a FG at the end of regulation. --I was in attendance for the win at Dallas in 2014 on MNF... got field passes prior to game and met Joey T. Always good to get a win at Dallas and was a fun night; didn't feel great going to OT, but they got it done. --The 2016 loss at Detroit hurt. We were on a 4 game win streak and the game that day was right there to be had. This would become one of many losses in 2016 that kept us from big things. 2016 and 1997 were similar seasons... both 8-7-1, both could have gone MUCH differently had the team just won a couple of games that were there for the taking. --The 2018 win vs Dallas is probably one of the better FedEx wins of the past decade. --The loss last year to Minny probably bugged me more than any other last year. That iffy PI on BSJ was frustrating. It's game over if that Pick 6 stands. We beat the hell out of Kirk that day; credit to him for hanging in and making plays.

Tend to agree that Seattle is really just an average team similar to us. It IS a tough place to play though and I don’t trust our defense to get stops against a competent QB/balanced attack. It’s a game where we have a chance, but Howell is probably going to need to be fully locked in again. He will probably need an “A” game.

This week is our chance to REALLY insert ourselves into the race. If we beat Seattle, then the 6 seed absolutely becomes in-play as we’d own the tie-breaker with the Seahawks. If we lose in Seattle and then beat the Giants, I would guess at that point it would be 7 seed or bust, 5-6 going into Dallas on Thanksgiving. It’s still really early to target rooting interests, but Minnesota is probably the one to watch most closely currently. We should root for Saints to win the South as we own tie-breaker with Falcons. Vikings are in big time QB trouble, but the schedule is easy. Saints play at Minny this week and I would say root for NOLA.

This was the 38th time in NFL history a game has ended 38-31. All but one (a 2003 divisional playoff game between Chiefs/Colts) was played in regular season. This was the 4th time in Washington history a game landed 38-31: 1995: @ Broncos 38, Redskins 31 2012: Bengals 38, @ Redskins 31 2012: Redskins 38, @ Cowboys 31 2023: Eagles 38, @ Commanders 31 1-3 (0-2 home; 1-1 road) —The 1995 game was quite memorable for me. Second time this year we’ve talked about 1995.. a more competitive season than record indicates. This was the third game of season and really hurt. We fell behind 24-7, but fought back to tie it. Denver took a 31-24 lead but Frerotte (big game) led a game tying drive. Unfortunately we left Elway just enough time. On the final play he hit Rod Smith with a semi-Hail Mary (43 yards out). I say “semi” because the route was essentially one on one with Green and Smith won the jump ball. Back then, the rule stated you had to kick the PAT even though there was no time on clock. I was really upset. I walked out of the sports bar (my senior year in HS) saw an empty beer bottle and picked it up and launched it… into the street. Got lucky it didn’t hit anyone or anything. Dumb. —Bengals game was really fun early in the RG3 season. Cincy offense cooked us though and we just couldn’t get a big stop. —I was at the Thanksgiving Game in Dallas that year. Probably the best/most fun win I’ve ever seen in person. There was also an awesome ES tailgate prior. Great group and it was a gorgeous day to boot. Took my father in law and we had a fantastic time. One of the more satisfying wins of the Snyder era and not as close as score indicated. This was the peak of that offense just doing whatever it wanted. A fun/memorable game. Had we not scored the late TD it would have been same total.. we’ve played in three 38-24 games.