kleese

Lots to be disappointed about from last night, but the biggest thing for me is this: We had a chance last night to potentially cruise into the playoffs for the first time in a very long time. In 2020, 2015, 2012, 2007, and 2005 we clinched during the final game of the season. Last time we were in prior to the last week was 1999– we clinched that year the second to last game of season. In 1992, we lost our last game and had to wait until the next day to get help to get in. So in our 7 playoff trips since we easily clinched in 1991, we solidified our spot the last week of the season 6/7 times, with the exception coming second to last game. We would have been in prime position to do just that had we taken care of business last night. The Giants now fill that role and they are likely one win away from getting in. Which is where we would have been. We worked hard to get ourselves into that position and to let it slip away stings. That said, after the 1-4 start I obviously would have taken a scenario where we were the 7 seed with three games to go. The rooting guide for this week is quite simple: Panthers over Lions Chiefs over Seahawks These games are of equal importance to us. If they both lose, we can’t fall out of 7 seed even if we lose. And we will know that before our game (or shortly after) gets started. Chiefs are TEN point favorite over Seattle. It is still a huge game for KC as the #1 seed is still in their sights. Also probably somewhat helpful that they almost lost in Houston this week— unlikely Seattle can “sneak up” on them in any way— and Seahawks are without Lockett as well. Take nothing for granted in NFL as we see week after week, but I certainly feel confident that the Chiefs will help us here. I also very much think the Panthers can beat Detroit. Carolina is a three point underdog and most public bettors will take the Lions. Carolina controls their own playoff destiny and will be fully motivated for this game. I think it’s close to a 50/50 game. I said I thought the Lions would split their games with Jets/Panthers. Hopefully, I’m correct. We remain 6.5 point dogs at SF; right where it was before our game last night. We can also add Vikings over Giants as I suppose NYG going 0-3 is possible; just unlikely. We can also still pass Giants if we go 3-0 and they go 2-1, but that won’t matter as we’d clinch anyway if we go 3-0. So the only way the Giants can help us now is if we win 2/3 and they lose out. Was hoping to not be in this position, but here we are. Big Panthers and Chiefs fan this week.

That’s total nonsense. This team is short on quite a few things; but passion and guts is not on the list. They’ve played hard and with fire all year. Pretty much any time a team looks bad and/or loses, fans point to “heart”— and it’s almost never the case. Last night had zero to do with “want to” or effort. Zero.

It’s not a matter of any sort of purposeful “let up.” I do not expect the Niners to rest their players or anything like that at all. Think more human nature/law of averages.

Agree with your thinking on Niners game and said so prior to this week. It is very possible we simply aren’t good enough to beat them and it won’t matter, but the situation we are getting them in is as favorable as it could be for us. I do think it’s possible we can “ugly the game up” with them and keep it tight. Then like you said, maybe the rookie QB makes a mistake or two or we get some breaks. I don’t think the game is an auto-loss. That said, the Lions/Panthers game next week might be the most important game on the schedule for us. I absolutely think Carolina has a chance. They control their destiny to win their division; they will be ready to play. It would be wonderful if Carolina and Seattle both lose early— we then get a bit of a “house money” situation in our game where we’d be locked into the 7 seed still even with a loss.

I don’t think either of Lions road games will be easy. They are only 3 point favorites at Carolina. And week 18 in GB will be tricky for them if they need it. The Packers would absolutely give it their all in that game even if they are officially eliminated by then. I think the Lions finishing with 9 wins remains most likely for them. I also think Seattle finishes with 9 max. So yes if we finish 2-1, I think we’d get in. It would be awesome to get positive results early Saturday.

Well, pain. The road is not blocked— as a matter of fact we remain the 7 seed— but it certainly got much harder to navigate. The odds of passing the Giants are now slim. We must finish with one more win than them— so if we go 2-1, the only way we pass them is if they go 0-3. At this moment, I don’t think we should be focused on them… It’s about the Seahawks and Lions now. Each of those teams must pass us in wins. Lions at Panthers Seahawks at Chiefs We will know outcome of each of those games prior to our kickoff at SF. We control our destiny. If we beat SF, we are assured remaining the 7 seed. If we lose, either team can pass us by winning their game. If both of those teams lose, then we can’t fall out of playoffs-/ even with a loss at SF. Packers could enter mix a little— but I think it’s pretty clear we need 9 wins. And if we get 9, they can’t pass us. Packers only factor in 8 win scenarios.

I guess Dallas loss can be chalked up in the “good” column: —Makes it much more likely Dallas will be locked into 5 seed prior to week 18 —Leaves door cracked for US to play for 5 seed week 18 (which would mean we’ve already locked up a spot).

Well, for the first time in awhile, we did not get one to go our way. Lions beat Jets late.

Ah, lovely I-44. I used to have work obligations in Springfield so I’ve crossed that border back and forth many, many times. While the scenery on the actual drive is nothing to write home about, the Grand Lake area is quite scenic. It’s a good trek off the highway, but I’ve always liked that area.

I am always a tad the opposite. They are an average team at very very best. I’d prefer them to get a win or two out of their system

I am still not as on board with that as everyone else. I think our biggest weakness is going up against an explosive passing game. Kirk and Jefferson in the dome would pose a lot of issues for us. I truly think we could work our way into a 16-13 type game with SF that can go either way. Absolutely— and I mentioned that Thursday as a secondary reason I wanted SF to beat Seattle.

Don’t love that outcome as it may very well lead to Vikings being sluggish on Xmas Eve vs Giants.

Yes for two reasons: 1. Seems most would prefer Minny over SF in potential playoff match up. This helps that cause. 2. Ensures Vikings will be totally dialed in when they play Giants next week.

If we win Sunday, I believe we will be in a win-and-in situation on Christmas Eve.

I have run the simulation on the playoff machine a few times; each time with us going 2-2 and finishing 9-7-1. In all cases, we were the 6 seed. Of course I am basing this on what I THINK is most likely to happen; and predicting every game correctly for each of the final four weeks is of course, impossible. However, I still keep coming up with Seattle as the 7 seed. Mainly because I’m giving them a win in week 17 at home vs Jets. Also, I think SF is going to pass Minnesota for the 2 seed. I think SF finishes 3-1 and Minny finishes 2-2; they would tie and SF wins tie-breaker.

Quick reminder to go ahead and root for Colts to beat Vikings Saturday. Why? 1. Would put Vikings on a two game losing streak when Giants go to Minny on Christmas Eve. Would be nice for that to be a game where Minnesota is fully locked in. 2. If you prefer potentially playing at Minnesota over at SF (I’m actually not so sure about that) then you want SF to track down Vikings. We don’t want Vikings to lose to Giants so they would need to catch losses elsewhere. The other two Saturday games don’t have any effect on us unless you are really searching for something in Browns game with us playing them week 17. Sunday early… Jets over Lions obviously. If you still have hopes of catching Dallas for 5 seed, here is what needs to happen for our game with them week 18 to have 5 seed on the line: Over the next 3 weeks, we need to make up two games on them. So if we go 3-0, they need to go 1-2. If we go 2-1, they need to go 0-3. They play at Jags, Eagles, at Titans; so it’s not impossible that they drop two of those. I have a hard time seeing them go 0-3. So, it can’t hurt to root for Jags to beat Boys Sunday as well. If they lose this week and we win, then I’d say that door at least cracks open for us.

What I’m saying is that if we beat the Giants we probably need to finish 0-3 to miss playoffs. And even if we did finish 0-3, there is still a decent shot we’d get in.

I think another simple way to look at it… it’s 4 way battle for 2 spots between the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, and Lions. The winner of the SNF game becomes an overwhelming favorite to get one of the spots. Would most likely require an 0-3 finish to miss out— and even then, there are some not-so-crazy scenarios where they still get in. The loser of SNF football will STILL be the 7 seed after the game. At that point it would be a real battle between SNF loser, Seahawks, and Lions. A week to week type thing. So in reality, this isn’t even close to a “must win” considering the loser would still be in the playoffs if season ended this week. What a win does is put a playoff spot on an absolute tee. And I guess it’s OK to look at Packers too. If they go 3-0 next few weeks and get to 8-8 by week 18, they might have something to play for in the final game vs Lions.

Here is a simple scenario where we can clinch as early Xmas Eve: —We beat Giants Two of following happen: —Seahawks lose at KC —Lions to EITHER Jets or Panthers —Giants lose to Vikings If that were to happen, we would know by kickoff of our game at SF— and it would then be a “win and in” situation. And if we lost, we’d then be in a “magic number is 1” situation where we would need to win one of last two or the above teams need to lose one of last two. In other words, beating the Giants and MISSING the playoffs is gonna be really, really hard.

Actually Clark’s last season was 1995 with Dolphins. So he wasn’t involved in those games in 1996. He played two years in desert—- 93/94

Was before my time, but I am familiar with that game and the controversy surrounding it. Was probably the most memorable moment in our history with them. The most important/memorable game was the 1984 season finale at RFK— for the NFCE championship. A rare year during that period where the Cardinals weren’t lousy. A great game with a dramatic ending— believe it’s still available on YouTube. The two losses to them in 1996 were both horrific. Two of my most haunting fan losses all these years later. First game was the “Boomer Esiason game” and second was “Romeo Bandison game.” Those games didn’t make me hate the Cardinals though. Just made me hate myself 🤣

This is Niners/Chickens game is about to kick and I can’t stress how much it would benefit us if SF wins. Again, not only does it help in the very obvious way of handing Seattle another loss, but I believe it INCREASES our odds in the game at SF next week. I truly believe that. And if you’re looking father ahead and would rather play Minny than SF in playoffs, then you also want Niners to win tonight. What it would REALLY do is give us significant more margin for error even if we lose to Giants. Go Niners!

Sports hate generally stems from ONE thing— barricades. How often has the opposing team kept you from reaching a goal? How many big games have you played against them? With that will also come resentment/jealousy of their fans, etc. I’ve never heard any Redskins fan say they hate the Cardinals— even though we played them twice a year for 30 years. They were bottom feeders— never posed a threat to us. So no hatred developed. Outside of the three teams in the division there are two other NFC teams I’ve always “hated” — Bears and 49ers. No coincidence at all that those two teams were threats during our glory years. I hated the Niners as a kid and how good they were— I’ve carried that with me forever. As others have mentioned, Seattle is probably the team that has entered the discussion the past 20 years. They’ve eliminated us three times in our last five playoff trips— with two of them (2005/2012) being years where it felt we REALLY had a shot. Couple that with the ST21 stuff from 2007 and that’s where you get “hate.” We have very little history with the Packers. Only a handful of memorable games and never really clashed with them when both teams were competing at same level at same time.

So I guess you think Ron is an awesome GM then? If the coaching staff is below average that means that a good staff would have them better than 7-5-1? Are you saying there is a lot more talented on the roster than what the team has produced in win column?

The problem with those odds is that it assumes all things will remain equal— which they won’t. It assumes no injury changes, no motivation changes, etc. It basically assumes we will lose to SF and Dallas and probably has us as not too heavy a favorite to beat Cleveland. Therefore, if they factor in a loss to Giants, our odds crater. Again, I think we are getting in with 9 wins, even if we lose to Giants. I think our odds of winning 2 out of last 3 are probably higher than 20%— especially considering in all likelihood Dallas will have their spot wrapped. As painful as it is to say this— Giants game is not a must win. If we lose, the Niners game won’t likely be a must win either. We’d enter “must” territory if we lose next two.. then it would be a must to win the last two. Now, if you’re talking “must win” in terms of making this all feel legit? Then yeah, they must win one of these next two— and really Sunday night is paramount.