kleese

I think every year I’ve followed the NFL, there has been at least one team that was riding high mid season and lost their grip over the second half. At this point last year, Cardinals were looking like the #1 seed— wound up barely squeaking into playoffs and getting housed in round 1. Ravens were 8-3 and missed playoffs. Chargers also stumbled after looking good mid season. And that’s just last year. Odds and history tell us SOMEONE who looks good now won’t finish the season strong. Of course that’s not a lock, but it would probably be more surprising if it DID NOT happen. Yes, right now the trend is that last WC team will get to 10 wins— I think that is likely to change though. Not a battle worth fighting. No need for thread police— it’s an open forum, doesn’t bother me. Yes, a tad confusing why someone would spend time in a specific thread if they aren’t interested in the specifics of the thread, but it’s fine. No biggie.

First, the yearly disclaimer: —This thread is intended for mathematical and “who to root” for purposes. Reality and what is likely to happen does not exist in this dojo. —When discussing possibilities, we are ASSUMING Commanders take care of business. You will hear me say things like “I’m not worried about the Falcons.” And yes, a thread on a Falcons site can very well same the same about us. Again, this assumes we get to where we need to be. —No doubt the current Snyder possibilities trump anything that could possibly happen on the field the rest of this year. His removal is paramount now; but I’m still enjoying the games as they come and I actually LIKE this team more than any since 2016. Our defense is legit good and they are fun to watch. Also like the playmakers on offense. Team is playing hard and is easy to root for. Hoping they can keep it interesting. Here is how they do that… The NFC landscape is top heavy. That 7 seed (and MAYBE the 6 seed) will be up for grabs. Let’s analyze that: —I give us 0% chance at the East. That’s done. Even if we somehow beat Philly Monday, that ship has sailed. Philly is winning the division and if they stumble just a bit, I only see Dallas as a possibility to overtake them. It certainly won’t be us so that isn’t even going to be listed as a possibility here. The focus is capturing the 7 seed. —So I am conceding the East to Philly and conceding the top WC to Dallas— SLIGHT chance that could flip-flop. —Vikings have total control of North and I do not think they will produce a second playoff team. I don’t see Pack rallying, and if they do, I don’t think they’d pass us given we hold the head to head with them. —I think Bucs will pull away and win South with room to spare. Regardless, I think that is also a one-playoff-team division. Atlanta is lingering, but we have the opportunity to control our destiny with them. —So if you eliminate WC possibilities from the South and North and concede one WC to the East…. That leaves two main targets on our radar: The Giants and whoever finishes second in the West (Seahawks or Niners). Rams are still out there too in that second place mix I suppose. So we will just say whoever finishes second in West. Now, we don’t need BOTH the Giants and the second place west team to falter— just one. I think 9-8 is the number. We need to get to 9 wins. SLIM chance 8 could do it. Also a chance we’d have to get to 10, but I think a 9-8 team will get in as a WC. If you are a math wizard like me, then you know that if a team is 4-5, they need to finish 5-3 the rest of the way in order to achieve 9-8. So that’s what we are doing here— assuming we finish 5-3 or better. The Giants have an odd remaining schedule. The next two look like cake: Texans and Lions at home. I’m predicting they split those two games, but even if they sweep— they’d be 8-2 with this on board: at Cowboys Commaders at Eagles at Commanders So they for sure would still be in play. And if they were to lose one of their games to Houston or Detroit, then they’d really be catchable. —In the West, I am pretty confident the Niners finish strong and beat out the Seahawks. Seattle has been super impressive but I still think they could slide from here. We should be rooting against both of those teams, hoping one falters second half of season. Here is our most realistic path to being in the race: —Lose at Philly (I have very little hope for win Monday) —Beat Texans and Falcons Enter first Giants game at 6-6. —Split with Giants Enter final three games at 7-7. At that juncture I think 3-0 would put us in as a lock. 2-1 would keep us in it through week 18 probably depending on other results and tie-breakers. If we were to beat Philly (or better yet sweep Giants) we would enter the final 3 games at 8-6 and we’d have a VERY high likelihood of getting in. In other words, even at 4-6 there will be a pretty simple and not far-fetched path to AT LEAST playoff picture relevance; if not a berth itself. If they can keep me interest into the second week in Jan, that will be a win. So, the “who to root for” this week: —Already got one good result with Panthers beating Falcons. The big ones: —Bucs over Seahawks —Texans over Giants —Chargers over 49ers Not that big of a deal, but why not: —Steelers over Saints —Packers over Cowboys —Cardinals over Rams (I guess)

I’ve said all along, I’ve maintained my fandom as a badge of honor— figured I was here before Snyder and I was never gonna let him chase me. It became a game of chicken between me, him, and death. Honestly, I thought death was likely to win. Now, well…

This is the sensible and really the only reasonable take on this. Under no circumstance should SH be starting until we are officially done or TH gets hurt.

The fact that he is a lousy person makes it worse, but I’ll be honest— that stuff doesn’t matter much to me in the long run. I don’t think JKC was any sort of Saint and there are plenty of stories about him that would likely get him cancelled today. I also want to be consistent with how I judge morality in general and I figure I’m trying this on an iPhone thst I choose to own knowing full well the CEOs and leaders of the companies that manufacture these products are quite possibly very bad people. Tyreke Hill had an amazing moment in an all-time great game last year that had fans across the world on their feet and cheering in amazement. He also once punched his pregnant girlfriend. End of the day, I don’t really know any of these people. I have no doubt some of them are terrible, some are likely decent people with flaws, and others are probably salt of the earth. I’m sure it runs the gamut just like all other aspects of society. I once had a convo with someone that knows a Redskins legend personally. He described him as “terrible” and went on to detail why. A little disappointing to hear perhaps, but it honestly didn’t change my feelings about said player at all— he was a football player and I am a football fan. For me, that is the extent of our “relationship” and what they do outside of the field is sort of neutral for me. My problem with Snyder is that he’s terrible at owning a football team. It’s quite likely that his personality and how he treats people is a big part of why— but the main thing for me is that he sucks at being an owner. If Snyder sold tomorrow there would be immediate jubilation and rejuvenation for the fanbase. Wouldn’t matter who he sold to. Wouldn’t matter if the new guy/gal also had a shaky rep. That relief would carry the fans for awhile with the new owner regardless of results. But it would fade. If the new owner was a great person but also terrible at being an owner, the fans would turn on him too. If new Owner was a top notch human but went 5-12 for 7 straight years, the stadium would be full of opposing fans, we’d still be a punchline, and there would be constant calls for changes. In the end, it’s just about the winning and losing. Perhaps with Snyder, now that so much is out of the can, it will be impossible to put it back for him even if they do somehow manage to field a winner someday. But make no mistake, the new owner would ABSOLUTELY need to win in order for there to be any sort of true return of the fanbase.

Yep, that’s the clip. Love it. It’s pretty funny on Twitter that the reply “Left Hand Up” to Tweets about Snyder etc is now commonplace. Social media is like 75% misery, but 25% is pretty clever and funny and that’s what keeps me there. It warms my heart that you remember the “F yeah Ma!” story. It still lives in lore within my friend group. As a matter of fact one of them sent me that exact text when we scored our TD last night. I hope no one feels I’m talking down to them or being judgmental about their “fandom” by expressing that I still enjoy it. I begrudge no one. And if someone says they no longer derive pleasure or fun from it, then I would absolutely advise to walk away. And of course I am not enjoying this season on the same level or enjoyed 1991– having a good team obviously matters to the fan experience. But if someone asks me “Do you still enjoy being a Washington fan?” I sort of cringe, raise my eyebrows a bit and mumble “yeah, I guess I really do.”

A little ironic perhaps, but tonight encapsulates why I still go through the routine and why I still enjoy it so much. This was a horrible football game— that much is indisputable. But my son and I talked about the game a little today, he was looking forward to watching it out on our deck and getting to stay up later than usual. All of my kids (even the 6 year old girl) think the “Left Hand Up” viral clip is hilarious (which it is). So they had some good laughs about that throughout the day. I sat out there with my son and we watched every play tonight. This was not a “jump out of your seat” game by any stretch, but it was still entertaining and we still wanted them to win. He seems to grasp the baseline of the Snyder situation and knows no one likes him and that it’s hard for others to function under him. But it doesn’t zap the enjoyment from the game itself from him in any way. The only time I got out of my chair tonight was when Slye lined up to kick the FG (I knew he’d miss) and then again before the 4th down play. It wasn’t so much because I wanted the joy of a win as much I wanted to avoid the abject humiliation of losing that game. Was also happy my son didn’t have to suffer through back to back losses on the last play in a five day span. I guess happy I didn’t have to either. He was definitely a little animated saying “no catch!” on the replays of that last play. Now, the football weekend is a little more enjoyable and it makes the GB game at least a bit more palatable. Most importantly, we had fun watching and rooting and mocking the game all at the same time. I can’t imagine missing out on that. At the end of the game, my son just said just said “Hey Dad, left hand up” and raised his left hand in a victory fist with a little grin on his face.

I just love Sundays still as much as always. I guess in that regard it’s always been more about me than them, so I don’t let them take that away from me. I liked being invested in the outcome and still very much enjoy the rituals of a football weekend. Even last year, I found the 4 game win streak super fun and was super pumped when they beat the Raiders- even though I never came close to “believing” in that team. I just enjoy/appreciate games in Oct-Dec that matter— even if only technically. I am totally fine operating with that type of tunnel vision. I also feel like if we ever get back on top— with or without Dan— that I’ll find it even sweeter and more gratifying knowing I stuck it out the entire time. If I ever checked out, I’m not confident I’d be able to ever get fully back in.

Different strokes I suppose. It’s actually almost the exact opposite for me. I used to be WAY more active on here. Now I will often go weeks or even months without even logging in. I still have the same juice and enthusiasm for Gameday and the rituals and hopes that surround it, but I guess I’ve lost a little zest for the banter in between. That is likely attributable to the state of the team overall.

Your last sentence is the main thing that keeps me going. I keep telling myself they have to be REALLY good at least ONE more time before I die, right? Well, every year the “Right?” is said with less and less confidence and more fear, but the hope holds. And I figure if I stick it out fully, then if we ever do get back to a really good spot I’ll enjoy it all the more. Fear that if I jump now that I won’t be able to jump back on emotionally even if they are good again. Plenty of lousy people/leaders have lucked into good things. It’s happened in the sports world other places. I just keep hoping the sun shines on this dog’s arse sometime too.

I’d take it easy on Doc. I don’t view him as puppet or anything like that at all. First of all, he has a role or schtick and he sticks to it, which is what good on air personalities do. Secondly, Doc is basically saying he’s not a quitter and he’s stuck with them so he has decided to stick it out forever— in other words he isn’t “soft” and can take whatever beating is next in store. Third, he often mentions not being mad at the kids because the parents are drunks. He says you probably can’t change the parents at this point, but you shouldn’t turn your back on the kids. Basically saying he likes the players still and enjoys rooting for them and hoping they do well despite the leadership above them. Doc’s one of the good ones. He and BMitch both boil the game down too simply sometimes— like all the players need to do is try harder or “punch someone in the mouth” and they will win more— but all in all, Doc is good by me and I’m glad he’s still around.

If you’re still here, you get what you deserve. I’m still here. Still writhing in my seat, still pacing my deck at the end of the close game. I see the “Danger, SHARKS, Do NOT Swim” signs, and yet I wade out anyway. It’s on me, not them.

That’s another thing that slays me when we get into the morality of Snyder. I’m not sure JKC would have lasted six months in today’s world. I’m not defending Snyder, just saying JKC is revered because he was a good owner in that once he had Beathard and Gibbs in place, he knew he had a good thing, he fostered those relationships, and he didn’t ever get in the way. Bottom line, he was a good owner. No one really gave a flying F about what kind of human being he was— plenty of stories out there. The problem for Dan is he sucks at being an owner so the fact that he seems to suck at everything else just adds to the pile-on. If he sold the team to a Saint who then produced football teams that went 5-12 every year, the fans would hate him too. As for the “kid friendly” stuff mentioned earlier— I didn’t specifically mean the in-stadium experience. I’m talking about how accessible and attractive the league is. When I was a kid, fantasy football was just at the opening stages of being mainstream and was played by adults. Now my son is in a league with his 10 year old teammates and they all track it via yahoo app. He also understands the basics of gambling (good Dad here). The players are marketed quite well; it’s great on tv now with added technology, etc.. and the games are close and meaningful most of the time.

Fair enough. You’d definitely know better than I would. I’m judging very much from afar. I can tell you when GB plays in Dallas it is probably 50/50; figured it would be even more dramatic in Landover.

The “stadium takeover” thing is league-wide FYI. It’s a new phenomenon that I would have never guessed or saw coming 20+ years ago. Anyone see the Philly-Arizona game? At the end, it legit looked like 80% Eagles green celebrating. Same thing happens in almost all of the “destination” cities and/or cities where the home team is really bad. Happens in Dallas all the time. And in LA this Sunday it looked like about 70% Cowboys fans. Places like Philly, Buffalo, Detroit, KC, that aren’t as attractive in terms of a weekend vacation spot and/or have a very localized hardcore fanbase have seemed to hold off on this trend. But I’d say at least half the teams in the league experience it almost weekly. Like if the Steelers play at the Titans; it’s probably a 50/50 split despite how good Tenn has been. On Oct. 23rd, FedEx will be pretty full. It will likely be 75% Packers fans.

Obviously there is no excuse for Snyder. He’s had more than enough time to turn it around and if he was good at it, he would have done it long ago. My point in brining up 93-98 is that by the time Dan arrived I was ALREADY a pretty fractured fan— somewhat hardened by the incredible disappointment of those years. I mean in year 6 post Gibbs and year 5 of Norv we started 0-7. Can you imagine if two years from now Ron starts 0-7 and is brought back for another year after that? Bananas. The org was totally inept and a joke when Snyder took over. There is also a more tangible connection. JKC 100% messed up the stadium and the sale of the team. While other teams were getting ready to build state-of-the-art downtown-based stadiums in the late 90s through mid 2000s, we built a concrete bowl in the middle of nowhere. People hate the location and lack of ambiance at FedEx and that really has little to do with Snyder. More importantly, JKC screwed his own family out of the team— leaving it to chance whoever might purchase them. It was a chance that burned us badly. The truth is, by the time Dan arrived the Redskins were ALREADY crumbling. He sucks at it, so he was unable to fix or improve it.

I disagree here a bit. As a lifelong fan, I do not feel “abused” or “lied to” at all. Dan Snyder, the organization, etc owe me nothing. It’s a transaction. I’m the consumer. At no point have I felt misled. I know what they are and I know what I’m getting into each season. It is my choice to stay or go. Many have chosen to go. I choose to stay. They may not deserve me, but I do deserve them— I’m sticking around, so I get what I get. I feel the same for all fans. Some of it is a little melodramatic to me.

Yeah, the “I don’t care anymore” posts always make me chuckle a little bit. A message board dedicated to a football team is an odd place to spend your time if you don’t care about it 😁 Two notes from your reply: 1. The “angst” is the only reason I do this. Always has been. That’s what’s on the line for me— a certain chunk of happiness/joy vs angst/frustration. If I don’t feel any of those things dependent on the outcome then it’s a pointless exercise to me. If I ever tuned in and truly didn’t care either way, I can’t imagine why I’d keep watching at all. 2. I disagree on the product of the league now vs then. As a product of the 80s/90s I am of course somewhat biased to the “things were better in my day” thinking and there are certainly some aspects of the game I think were better back then. But the goal of the NFL was always to create a league of parity where everything mattered all the time. They actually failed at that back then. Just look at the NFC playoffs back in the 1980s. Blowout City. Very few close/engaging games. Absolutely dominant teams dominating. Some of that dominance was fun to watch— but 55-10 in the Super Bowl year after year got pretty old. I like the way the league is produced and marketed now and I like that it’s even more kid-friendly.

It was awkward. I was hoping to avoid it a bit longer. But it was time. Last night, after I finally calmed down a little (this loss REALLY bothered me) I called my 10 year old son into our room and had “the talk.” Over the past two years or so his football fandom has drastically increased. His first love was baseball and he’s been into that for awhile; football came a little later, but it’s come on strong. He’s playing tackle this year and I’m the Coach so that has only further enhanced his love of the game in general. He is also now a Commanders fan. Kinda had no choice. Took him to his first game in Dallas last week— he loved the scene but was very disappointed with the loss. Today we watched out on the deck and he said his stomach hurt as the game wound down. He quickly walked away as it ended— he was very ready to celebrate. I stewed. As the afternoon wore on, I started to feel a tangible guilt. What am I doing to my son. I’m locked in here. I’ve made that choice. Honestly I made it around 1998 BEFORE Snyder even bought the team. That first post-Gibbs rebuild attempt was a terrible disappointing failure and those teams killed me. I think people often forget those stretch of seasons and how they helped set the table for what was to come. But I’ve stayed “in it” just as passionate as ever— the entire time. Obviously my expectation level has changed. My MOOD about the team has changed. My confidence level has bottomed out. But my personal fandom level is just like it was in 1991. No change. I don’t begrudge anyone who has bailed or who doesn’t care much any longer— but that is not the case for me. But my son is pure. He doesn’t have to be here. So I sat him down last night and told him he was free to go. Explained that this was a “save yourself” situation and that he doesn’t need to be a Washington fan just because I am. Hell, we live in Oklahoma— I told him to feel free to pick the Chiefs or Bills or Bengals or whoever. This was his chance. Fly away and leave your grounded Dad behind. It’s cool. I’ll even buy you a jersey of your choice (he was wearing a McLaurin jersey as we talked). I explained the history and why people hate Snyder. That it’s a transient demographic and isn’t same situation as Lions or Bills where the home atmosphere has stayed strong despite ineptitude. He took it all in, looked right at me and told me he’s in. He doesn’t want to bail. Feels like it’s his team and the team he wants to root for. I admire his resolve and bravery; question his decision-making. Sins of the father I suppose. So we ride together I guess. Misery loves company. I can only hope that sometime in HIS lifetime the misery lifts.

My thoughts: I didn’t get anything correct on my mock schedule, but I DO think I earned some sort of partial credit—- I correctly had us playing Philly in week 3– but I had it as the away meeting and not at FedEx. I also had it on MNF and of course we DO play at Philly on MNF; just later in the year. So maybe two half points there, equaling one point. Missed the Titans and Falcons games each by exactly one week. Otherwise, wasn’t close on much. From a competitive standpoint, this schedule looks very balanced. I try not to get too caught up in “strength of schedule” as it’s all predicated on the past. The Jags might be an 8 win team this year. The Packers might be a 6 win team. Who knows. That said, the schedule is certainly filled with plenty of “winnable” games on paper and there aren’t any particularly daunting stretches of opponents or travel. The late bye week is a little weird and probably not 100% ideal, but again, who knows— might come at the perfect time depending on how things play out. The back to back games vs the Giants is also weird, but I don’t view it as any particular disadvantage. I’d have to go and look deeper but I’m pretty sure this will be the only occasion in my lifetime where we’ve played the same opponent in back to back games. Some other general notes/personal preference observations: —The 4:25 or SNF are my personal favorite windows. I like being in that more “marquee” spot because it likely means you are doing things that matter. I also like watching the early games anticipating our game later. So in that regard it’s a little bit disappointing to only get one game scheduled that way all year (at Colts). I’m not counting the SF game (more on that in a minute). I would have liked a SNF game but I understand why we weren’t chosen. Can always “earn” our way on there later in season (more on that later too). —I am good with the placement and opponents in our two scheduled Primetime games. After five straight Sunday 1pm kickoffs to start season, it will be nice to mix it up with the TNF game in Chicago. Also like the mid season MNF game at Philly. —A rarity with our game at Dallas. I believe 2008 was the last time we played in Dallas on a Sunday afternoon in the first third to half of the season. That was a 4:25 kickoff and we pulled an upset that day. As far as a 1pm kickoff at Dallas in the first half of season? I am racking my brain, and I THINK the answer 1999. That’s 23 years! This really matters to me personally because Dallas is only a 3.5 hour drive for us. I’ve been to plenty of our games there, but not as many as you’d think because they are so often inconvenient— on or close to a holiday, at night, and/or so late in season that I’m hesitant to book it in advance, not knowing if the game will matter or not. This year is perfect— first Sunday in Oct at noon. That will be an easy decision for me this year. —Got some good fortune on the Texans game as well. Pretty easy trip for us and it’s the Sunday before my kids are out all week for Thanksgiving. That works well, so I should be able to make it to two games this year, absolute minimum. —The only big negative for me is the Niners game. I am REALLY good about planning ahead and paying things forward to form my life schedule around our schedule. But Christmas Eve is a really tough one for me. We have a pretty set in stone routine/tradition on 12-24 that is going to make it difficult to watch that game live for me. Last time it was an issue was 2016 when we played at Chicago. Luckily for me, it was a 1pm kick which gave me JUST enough time to finish the game before our family stuff got going. The 4:05 kick this year is gonna be rough that day. Hopefully I care enough at that point for it to matter regardless. —NFL bumped up the flex scheduling start date a few years ago— starts pretty early now— I believe early October. It’s been pretty rare for flexes prior to November but technically it’s possible. I absolutely would not expect us to even get a possible flex look until our game with GB at the absolute earliest. I mention that week specifically because the SNF game is Steelers at Dolphins, probably the worst one on paper all year. Wouldn’t be surprised if after about week 4/5 that game looks ugly. It’s the Steelers so they’d likely need to be REALLY bad, but something to watch. If we got off to a good start, our game with Packers could be appealing. After that, I find it hard to imagine we’d have flex options for several weeks. Eagles is MNF, Texans, Falcons, Giants x2, and a bye week. Anything is possible but it’s pretty hard to envision any of those match ups being so good that they’d be flex candidates. Last two weeks hosting Browns and Cowboys? Who knows. —Note the week 15 home game vs Giants is one of five possible Sat games. Not sure if I’ve seen if the plan that weeks is a triple header or double header. —Week 1 vs Jax is considered a “cross flex” as it would normally be a CBS telecast, but is on FOX instead. 49ers game is also a cross-flex airing on CBS. Browns game is not considered a cross-flex as it is the “extra” game for us this year and all of those games are free agents for the networks. Pretty nice schedule overall. Perfectly fine from a competitive standpoint and more or less fan friendly.

It’s not so much about “ease” as it is a concerted effort to not burn a marquee game on a day when eyeballs are guaranteed regardless. Doesn’t matter who Dallas plays on Turkey Day, all eyes on that game with high ratings. They consider it a “waste” to drop the Eagles or Bucs or whoever there. They also seem to generally avoid a total dog opponent like say, the Jags. Instead they usually land on a middling opponent either in terms of how good they are and/or the overall appeal.

That Browns rumor seems a bit fishy, but regardless NYD is a Sunday so we will be playing someone that day unless we play Sat/Mon

Chicago on TNF Oct 13 looks legit. Also, hosting Philly week 3 and hosting Cleveland week 17 seems to be legit leaks. Also week 10 at Eagles MNF. So two primetime games so far— both on road.

Today is the day you can start believing the leaks because the teams have their schedules now. If what has trickled out so far is true, you can cross Eagles off the list— reporting they will open with Lions. And we know Eagles host Vikings on MNF also in week 2. So no Eagles first two weeks for us.

FWIW, the main leaker dude on Twitter has made a number of mistakes on his leaks— he’s either totally making it up for fun and not doing his homework all that well or some of his info is good and some is off.