kleese

I’ll keep hammering this home— the Niners beating Seattle Thurs has hidden benefits for us. If SF wins, they clinch the West. And realistically their last three games won’t mean a ton unless it really matters to them to try and be the 2 seed as opposed to 3 (and I’m not sure why it really would). Now, by no means do I think the Niners would just punt their final three games or rest starters. I don’t think they’d do that until week 18. But if they beat Seattle it absolutely increases the odds they exhale a bit, don’t take chances with any banged up players, and the law of averages catches up a bit as well. Much more likely they could let their guard down a tad after beating Seattle as opposed to losing to them.

Problem for Lions is they need to finish with one MORE win than all of the other three teams. The tie between us and Giants was a terrible outcome for them and they lose a tie breaker to Seahawks. So let’s say Lions finish 3-1 and land at 9-8. Well, two of the three they are chasing need to finish with 8 or fewer— so a max of one more win per team.

This is getting WAY ahead of ourselves, but for those that like to indulge in such speculation—- if we make the playoffs I would mentally prepare yourselves for a Sat game. I’ll spare you the details, but the way things shake out with the network rules/schedule this year, it will almost certainly be two NFC games on Sat and one at 4:25 Sun— which will most likely be reserved for Dallas. Maybe if they play Carolina or Atlanta that could change but it’s probably close to a lock if they play TB. Yep, and I don’t think they want to do that.

I think it is different this year. The Eagles will already have a bye week secured. The may not want to completely sit everyone and have their guys out for essentially two films weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they treated it more like a pre-season game and started guys and got them out quickly. That said, the last thing we’d want is to be in a situation where the Eagles HAD to win week 18.

Rooting Guide for the Upcoming Week with some “sleeper” stuff to pay attention to: 49ers over Seahawks: For all the obvious reasons. If Seattle loses this one, they are in a world of hurt with a trip to Arrowhead looming. The Jets the following week won’t be a picnic either. Not a must win for Seattle but their loss to Carolina really puts the pressure on them here. I called the Carolina win last week and now this week I’m a little worried about a Seattle bounce-back. It’s a much bigger game for Seahawks than Niners, at home, short week, no Deebo, maybe Purdy due for a fall, etc etc. So I’ll be a little antsy about this one— I will say the Seahawks defense is terrible and their run D is just abysmal. Bad team to be playing when you can’t stop the run. The “hidden” benefit to the Niners winning is if they win, they clinch the division— and they keep the heat on Vikings who play Giants on Christmas Eve. It may also make them a tad less motivated in their game against us. If they beat Seattle, their final 3 games really aren’t that big for them. A SF win has one obvious and a couple of more subtle advantages for us. Jets over Lions: If we clinch, I’ll actually start rooting for the Lions— fun team and I’d love to see them get a shot at someone in playoffs. But for now, I’d prefer to remove them from our mix. Again, if we get 10 wins, Lions don’t matter. If we get to 9 wins, we just need them to lose once. I won’t be on pins and needles for this one by any means, but I’ll be pulling for the Jets for sure— they kinda owe us one against Detroit from 1997 (let’s see who else remembers that). As far as the rooting guide goes, those are the only two that REALLY matter. If you want to dig a bit deeper— or a LOT deeper: Colts over Vikings: Would keep the Vikings highly motivated for their game the following week vs Giants Panthers over Steelers: I like the Panthers odds to win their division. They will be right there with a win over Pitt. Carolina plays Detroit next week— would love for that game to have big meaning for Carolina. Rams over Packers: This is a crazy stretch, but if you are calculating our chances to get in at 8-8-1, then we’d need GB to lose one more. I am undecided on what I want in the Eagles and Cowboys games. On one hand, you could argue we want whatever locks Dallas into their spot before week 18, lessening the odds they play their full starters against us. At same time that would mean Philly would have little to play for week 18 vs Giants. There really isn’t a scenario now where Dallas would be locked into the 5 seed and Eagles were still playing for the 1 seed. So it’s pick your poison on that one. I don’t really have a rooting interest there. I GUESS with Jags, Eagles. Titans on deck you could argue a Dallas collapse and we could still catch them, but that isn’t on my radar.

People are over-exaggerating how hard it will be to make playoffs if we lose to Giants. No doubt if we lose Sunday, finishing ahead of Giants will be tough. But if we lose to Giants and win out, we are 95% going to get in. Where people are getting this wrong is the scenario where we lose to Giants and then finish 2-1 to end at 9-7-1. In that scenario, I’d say we have about a 60-70% to still get in. If we lose to NY and finish 9-7-1, we would need TWO of the following to get in: —Giants finish 0-3 —Seahawks finish 2-2 or worse —Lions lose once

Count me in on the “not so fast” group preferring to go to Minnesota over SF. I 100% agree that the 49ers are better/more talented team than Vikings. But SF IS starting a third-string rookie QB and we have a VERY stout defense. They may have also lost Deebo. In addition, the Dome is a more difficult road environment in general. We will see how it all shakes out— by that time, perhaps I’d be on board preferring Minny as well, but I don’t think it’s an open and shut case. Kirk + JJ is a very tough task.

Why do you say that? The AFC WC picture is fairly messy as well. But if the Seahawks lose to SF Thursday we are guaranteed to at least be the 7th seed after next week— even if we lose to Giants.

Yep, no one will want to hear it, but if we lose to Giants we won’t be anywhere near eliminated. The Seahawks loss drastically increases our odds of getting in with 9 wins— no matter who those wins come against. Only “negative” today besides Lions is Niners winning— now, their game on Thursday in Seattle really isn’t all that big for them. I’m sure they would prefer to just go ahead and win the division that night, but it’s a MUCH bigger game for Seattle— and now SF looks like they will be without Deebo too. That’s gonna be a tough game Thursday for them.

Panthers gonna win that division.

You do realize Kyle was in same position and didn’t make the change either, right? Purdy replaced injured QB; which is exactly what Howell would have done had TH gotten hurt.

Eagles did their job; Vikings did not— although I still don’t think the Lions are a major threat— not yet at least. But I’m really glad they lost that Thanksgiving Game— honestly Detroit is a better team than we are and I’m glad they had that swoon there after they beat us. Thwart big one now is Carolina in Seattle. Would be a huge help.

I would think Rog survives this; I don’t think there is anything TOO damning here in terms of him or the league. Definitely some egg on face and guilt by association, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence— ultimately Dan is gonna be the one to fall here. Now, maybe you’re right— and if so; man that would be something if Dan took Rog with him.

Two thoughts.... 1. Meh, there really isn't a whole lot in this report that seems "new" or particularly revealing. Honestly, it's kind of a big waste of time for Congress to be involved here and they are lying through their teeth if they are trying to say this is somehow all being done in the name of the victims of the greater good of workplace conduct. I'd say the majority of what is alleged is more along the lines of lousy human behavior and less along the lines of criminal intent/action. The nature of time elapsed (as much as 15+ years in some cases) also makes it all kind of murky. 2. I DO think it's "good" in terms of the body-blow effect. I see absolutely no way he survives this now and I did not feel like that just five months ago. Because at the very, very least there is now enough evidence to indicate that he just shouldn't be the owner of an NFL team. Even if you give him the benefit of the doubt on some of the accusations, he's at MINIMUM incompetent in terms of running an org. I firmly believe the NFL recognizes this now and also recognizes that there is no brushing this under the rug-- this stuff won't just go away with time or two years from now everyone will have forgotten. They know Dan must be sacrificed now and it's going to happen sooner than later. Just a matter of how painful Dan intends to make the exit for all involved.

For the record, if that were to happen, we’d still pass the Giants on basis of better overall division record… So if somehow, someway that situation presented itself AGAIN, there would once again be more value in a tie than a loss.

If you told me I controlled the outcomes and I had to pick one of the Giants/Seahawks to win and one to lose, I’d pick Seattle to lose. I’d prefer them both to lose of course, but I’ll be watching Seahawks even more closely— namely because we control destiny with Giants and after Carolina, Seattle goes 49ers, Chiefs, Jets. Seattle D is terrible. Panthers are better defensively. Seattle has a better O but they are a little banged up. Panthers off a bye and better than people think. Also, that line opened at around 6-6.5 and is now down to 3.5. The people that do it for a living jumped Carolina early. I’d say if you are a bettor and you are leaning Seahawks— tread lightly.

Yes, but if the Giants lose they fall to 7-5-1, tied with us, and currently lose the tie breaker. So we pass them. Then the Giants could potentially pass the Seahawks if Seattle loses to Carolina— in that case we’d be the 6 seed. If Seattle wins, we’d be 7th. I love the Panthers this week. I absolutely think they can win that game.

Here is the bye week who to root for guide: Something to note— I know it’s hard to accept, but the tie was really closer to a win for us than a loss. In many ways it’s almost the same. I’d also note that nothing TERRIBLE can happen this week. No matter what happens, if we beat Giants we would re-enter the “if playoffs started today” graphics. What could happen this week is the path over the final 4 weeks gets easier/harder. But nothing will “screw” us. The Giants game is going to be massive. There are certain scenarios where we lose to Giants and can still get in— as a matter of fact if we lost to Giants and then went 3-0, I think we WOULD get in. And if Seattle helped us we could potentially lose to Giants, win 2/3 and get in. But obviously, no one wants that. It’s really quite simple: Beat the Giants and our playoff odds are quite strong. Results of this week could make them even stronger and of course we will know by game time what has changed. Eagles over Giants: Very obvious reasons here. I guess in a bizarro world you could say an Eagles loss increases odds they’d need to beat Giants in week 18 to clinch, but obviously that is dumb rationale. If the Eagles win this week and then we beat Giants, it makes it darn near impossible for GMen to pass us. Vikings over Lions: Man, no one suffered more from the tie in our game than Detroit. Think about this— they held the tiebreaker with us and Giants. They lose tiebreaker to Seattle. What they needed was ONE of us to lose and get closer to catching that team. But by virtue of the tie, it means the Lions must PASS either us or Giants in standings— and same with Seahawks. Lions are hot, but they for sure need to go 4-1 to have a real shot and my guess is they likely need to go 5-0. Their schedule isn’t too tough, but it’s not easy either. If they lose this week you can basically realistically scratch them off. Bucs over 49ers: Not huge, but it’s a why not scenario. If the Niners lose they fall to 8-5 with Seattle up next. Let’s say Seattle wins and go to 8-5. Well, one of them gets a sixth loss next week. And if BOTH were to lose this week it becomes a very nice scenario for the teams chasing them. Panthers over Seahawks: I think this is the biggest one this week. If Panthers pull the upset (and I VERY much like their chances) then it really opens up some margin for error for us. If Seattle loses this week, it of course increases our odds of clinching a spot earlier if we beat Giants. But what it really does is really keep us alive even if we lose to Giants. If Seattle loses to Carolina, we lose to Giants, and then win 2/3 I’d say we are likely to finish ahead of Seattle. This game might the one that most drastically improves our odds during the bye. Go Darnold! Not even messing around with any of the south teams now— no chance the second place teams enters into WC consideration. I guess next week we can look at the Packers a bit once they are off their bye week. At 5-8, I guess you can begin considering outcomes where they win out, etc.

Only way Cowboys get a home game is if they win the East. More likely they are locked into the 5 seed and know they will be traveling to play winner of NFC South.

For those interested in more possible schedule changes… By rule, nothing can be flexed Christmas Eve. The NFL would have to break the rules of their own press release from before the season if they did that. The night game on Eve is Raiders at Steelers but it’s NFLN, not NBC because it’s a Sat game. And with both of those teams playing better it’s not a total dog anyway. Wouldn’t matter if it was; but regardless nothing will change on Eve with the exception of perhaps a network cross-flex; no game times are going to shift. So we will play at SF at 4:05 on the 24th. New Year’s Day vs Browns is slated for 1pm. I’d say unlikely that moves, but keep this in mind: The SNF game (Rams/Chargers) is 100% going to get flexed out. And right now CBS has the DH 4:25 game that day with ONLY Vikings at Packers in that spot. That is a potentially extremely weak feature game. I think it is certain the Sunday game gets flexed and quite possibly the Vikings game either gets flexed or another game is added to that slot. Now, looking at the schedule, it is a WEAK slate. No real obvious match-ups. The best game currently between two playoff-ish teams is Jets at Seahawks. I say keep this in mind, because this decision needs to be made after we play the Giants. IF the Browns win their next two, all of a sudden that could become a candidate to move around the schedule. Results of next two weeks could change other things as well, but something to keep an eye on. Again, I’d say chances are that our game stays where it is, but we could very well get moved or cross-flexed networks. I suppose by now we all know that week 18 is up in air across the board. I believe two games will be selected for Saturday. And they will want those games to have some level of playoff implication. But they won’t want them to be deciding games—- in other words, they don’t want to put a game on Sat that then renders a Sunday game meaningless. So who know where we will slot vs Dallas. Could be massive; could be meaningless; could be anywhere between.

Because it would be shocking if they put us at 4pm and moved one of those lesser games available to primetime. Sounds like SNF for our game

I certainly have no sources but I see no reason why they shouldn’t put Dolphins-Bills on SNF. It’s one of the best/biggest games of the entire NFL year, marquee QB match up, and avoids putting Miami at a further travel/rest disadvantage.

Credible source reporting Pats/Raiders has indeed been removed from SNF and will start at 4:05 Sunday now. No word on what is being flexed I but there is close to a 100% chance it’s our game or Bills/Dolphins. The option for 4pm Sat now appears off the table. Looks like we will be primetime either Sat or Sun.

Not sure where you are hearing that, but teams have played back to back on SNF before and the NFL is not afraid to do it. Also, Dolphins play this Sunday night at LA; having them play at Buffalo Sat shortens their prep time to sort of a max level once you consider travel. Could factor as well.

The day/time of our game will be released by the NFL sometime today— no later than during the MNF game and probably before— or at least a credible leak will emerge. Reading the tea leaves, I really think Dolphins-Bills is going to get flexed to SNF; which would then leave us to anchor their Sat slate as the primetime game. It’s still possibly that scenario could be reversed or Pats/Raiders stays on SNF and both our game and Bills game are played Sat, but my mildly educated guess is that we win up Sat primetime.