kleese

No doubt, any division hopes sailed away yesterday... I didn't think it was very realistic anyway, but that outcome will put it to bed. I guess there's a chance it could be revived if Dallas lost in the Meadowlands this week because either us or Philly will improve to 7-7, but even then it would probably be a stretch. So as others have mentioned, we now have six teams essentially fighting for two spots: 49ers WFT Eagles Falcons Vikings Saints You can then throw in the two 5-8 teams if you want (Panthers, Seahawks) but right now I think it's fair to focus on the six. I think you can officially bury the 4-9 Giants and Bears. 49ers really helped themselves this week; huge road win in Cincy. They do have two tough road games remaining (Titans/Rams) but their home games are soft (Falcons, Texans). 2-2 will almost certainly get them in-- with that schedule, 1-3 or 0-4 seems highly unlikely. So for all realistic purposes, I think we are looking at 5 teams for one spot. If we go 3-1, we're in. Should be a done deal. Only way that wouldn't happen is if Minny, NOLA, or Atlanta finished 4-0. Highly unlikely given schedules. So if we win 2/3 vs. Philly/Dallas then we are likely setting ourselves up for a "win and in" game week 18 vs Giants. What about getting in at 8-9? Well, that's way more complicated, but I still think those odds are somewhere around 50/50-- if BOTH of our wins were against Philly, then odds increase. Let's say we beat Philly twice and lose to the Boys and Giants-- we'd finish ahead of Philly for sure and we'd win tie-breakers with everyone else unless it's JUST us vs. NOLA. So I'd go as far as to say, we WILL get in at 8-9 if we sweep Philly. If we split with Philly and lose to either Dallas or Giants? Well, I still think we'd have an OK shot, but the one thing we would need FOR SURE is for Philly to either lose to the Giants or Cowboys in their other games. So one thing to potentially monitor is Dallas' motivation as we approach week 18-- could wind up being better for us if they have incentive to win that game the last week of season. Again, if we take care of Philly twice, it's moot. Needless to say, this week is huge.

1. Let’s just avoid the TRULY obvious; no need to risk any mushes. 2. This answers #4 as well, but I am really not worried about the Giants, Seahawks, or Bears— the three teams that are TWO games behind us who we also own tie-breakers with. Now, sure, I’d prefer they go ahead and lose, but currently not on my radar— and I guess a small part of me would like for the Giants to maybe get to 7 wins to hurt their draft position. 3. Rams not currently on my radar either, but that would change if we win Sunday and they lose Monday. If you give us either the 6/7 seed based on finishing 9-8 and behind the Rams, it is most likely we’d be playing the Packers, Bucs, or Cards. Dallas could also factor if they finish hot and/or one of the other division leaders stumbles. Of the possibilities, the one I think is the most clear choice in terms of being advantageous is Arizona. Kyler is really good and dangerous, but he’s also not playoff tested— I’d certainly take my chances in that spot with him over Rodgers or Brady. Same goes with Kingsbury and the entire Cards team— they are having a great season and earning respect— but I think a lot of people (myself included) will be a touch skeptical until we see what they do in January. So if you told me right now we’d be a WC and I could pick our opponent, I’d pick the Cards.

Your viewing guide for Week 14 The Obvious: Steelers at Vikings: Nothing helped us more last week than Detroit beating Minnesota. We are going to own a tie-breaker with the Vikings so we essentially have a two game lead on them now. We do need them to lose one more to ensure they can’t get to 10 wins. Playing an AFC team there is no downside for us here. Go Steelers. Saints at Jets: I’m still wary of the Saints. They’ve looked awful lately, but they are the only team that beats us in a head to head tie-breaker, so it would be preferable for them to lose at least two more. Their schedule isn’t terribly difficult— only a game at Tampa looms that I’d describe as tough. I fully expect them to win this game on Sunday, but a loss would probably be the death knell for them— so go Jets. 49ers at Bengals: Thank you very much Seahawks last week… Niners were hot and that loss hopefully cooled them off. This is a 50/50 game to me— Vegas agrees as it’s Bengals -1. We don’t “need” the Niners to falter as there are two spots available for the taking, but this is still an obvious rooting position for us. Go Bengals. The Less Obvious: Falcons at Panthers: Flip a coin I guess. Both teams just one game behind us and we hold the tie-breaker with either of them. I suppose you’d “root” here for whoever you see as LESS of a threat to get super hot down the stretch. Also understand that in some crazy scenarios, having them tied with us could HELP us in multi-team tie-breakers. Both of these teams also have a game remaining vs Saints. So pick whoever you want here and then I’d say the loser sort of becomes our friend the rest of the way while we’d probably prefer to see the winner lose. Both teams have pretty tough remaining schedule. Giants at Chargers: Certainly not fearing a Giants run here, but we could probably use their help a bit with Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so we might as well root for them to lose here and avoid any conflicts moving forward. Rams at Cardinals: In this exercise we’ve been conceding one of the wild cards to the second place team in West, trending to the Rams. Well, if the Rams lose in Arizona Monday Night they fall to 7-5, which would suddenly put them in some danger— or at least put them in the mix for with the other WC teams. So assuming we are 100% conceding that we aren’t catching the Cards, then you root for Arizona here in sort of “why not” position. The “Now, You’re Really Stretching: Seahawks at Texans: Seattle is two games behind and we own the tie-breaker. Not really a threat. They also don’t play any of our competing teams the rest of the way so they are sort of out of sight out of mind for us. But if you want to get technical, root for Houston. Bills at Bucs: Hear me out on this one. We aren’t catching Tampa in most any scenario, that’s not what this is about. But the Bucs do play the Saints next week, they also have two remaining with Panthers. I’d prefer them to be motivated for those games— especially next week against NOLA. If the Bills win this one, I think Tampa for sure stays fully focused on Saints and Panthers in subsequent weeks. So go Bills, kinda. Bears at Packers: Bears similar to Seahawks— not a real threat. But technical no harm in them losing here— they also play the Vikings twice over final four, so they will become our allies soon.

As others have stated, today was a very good day. The Vikings and Niners both losing to teams their fanbases likely expected to beat really helps. Falcons and Saints losses help as well. Bears and Giants losing also can’t hurt. Eagles win over Jets was the only one that didn’t go our way. Results of today vault our odds to make it if we finish 3-2– should be close to 100% now. It would be stunning to me if we finished 9-8 (regardless of how we do it) and don’t make playoffs. Today’s results also increased odds of making it if we go 2-3. We have clinched the tie-breaker with the Falcons, Panthers, Niners, and Vikings. Throw in Seahawks too I guess. The only team we lose the tie-breaker against is NOLA— we’d need it to be multi-team in order to jump ahead of Saints. Eagles TBD. Will look at next week’s match-ups/rooting interests later in week.

That NOLA offense is just brutal now though. And Hill sounds like he tore a ligament in his finger. With the way the NFL works, only a fool would count out a team mathematically in the mix, but Saints have the look of a team circling the drain— hopefully they excuse themselves from this race over the next few weeks.

Cowboys beat Saints, which is a fine outcome in my eyes. I don’t view the division as a realistic goal— I think it will take us sweeping Dallas for sure which I don’t view as likely; and really, if we DO sweep them then having them win in NOLA honestly doesn’t hurt much anyway. So I’m glad to see the Saints take another L as they are the one team in the WC mix that could really hurt us in a tie-breaker situation. Next up for NOLA is Jets and the only team with a winning record they play over the final four weeks is Tampa— so I think it’s good they lost tonight.

I am taking a more conservative approach. We haven’t made the playoffs in back to back seasons since 1991-92. I really want us to do it again. Of course, the division is preferable but with a two game deficit with only 6 to go, I don’t view it as super realistic— even though we do control our destiny there. Not sure I see Dallas TOTALLY collapsing. And if they lose Thursday, that is on the table. They would come to DC in total desperation mode— not sure I like that either. And then we’d likely have to beat them twice in three weeks. I just don’t love those odds. So I’d prefer Dallas take care of NOLA this week— then if we sweep Dallas we can still win the division.

Did a quick scroll through main page, if this thread already exists and I missed it, please feel free to nix it. I do this pretty much every year with the exception of a season like 2019, where you couldn’t squint hard enough to see any playoff possibilities. Important to remember, this thread exists only to chat about/clear up the ACTUAL mathematical possibilities surrounding the WFT and the playoffs. Can check reality at the door— thread lives until the math kills us. I assume everyone knows this by now, but the expanded playoffs have added a WC team to each conference. So your division winners seeded 1-4, with top seed only team getting a bye. Then your WC teams seeded 5-7. 7 plays at 2, 6 at 3, and 5 at 4. There will be two games Sat, a Sunday triple header, and one game on Monday Night. It would be ridiculous and virtually impossible with 6 weeks left to sift through ALL of our scenarios in the traffic jam of the NFC standings right now. But at 5-6 currently, we WOULD be in as the 7 seed, playing at Lambeau in the Wild Card round. How do we stay there? Well, that’s complicated, but the short answer would be “keep winning.” This is NOT a fact, but I believe if we were to finish 4-2 and end at 9-8 we would be close to a lock for the playoffs. I’d be stunned if that didn’t get us in. At 3-3 and 8-9 is where it gets dicey. Playing around with it, my guess is that we’d be out in that scenario, but we could still make it at 8-9 without needed a ton of shenanigans. A lot would depend on who we beat to get the 3 wins. Shenanigans would be needed to get it at 7-10 (finishing 2-4). There are ways, but it gets out of control at that point figuring it out. So, we know this. If we finish: 6-0: We win the East 5-1: Good chance to win East, playoff lock 4-2: Unlikely to win East, should be in playoffs 3-3: Probably a 50/50 playoff scenario 2-4: Very slim odds 1-5: Toast 0-6: Burnt Toast One thing to keep in mind is that currently we are in excellent shape when it comes to tie-breakers. We lose a direct head to head tie-breaker with the Saints. Other than that, we would win almost any other tie-breaker, including multi team tie-breakers because our conference record is 5-2. We have piled up most of our losses against our AFC opponents, which helps in this regard. Obviously our last five games are all NFC games so this could change quickly. As far as rooting interests go, well in some ways it’s pretty clear and in other ways, it gets complicated. If you still feel good about the diction, well, then root against Dallas. Duh. Less concerned with Eagles considering we are currently ahead of them AND we play them twice. Literally every team in the NFC is within one game of a playoff spot other than the Lions and Seahawks. We also now have the tie-breaker with Seahawks. So moving forward, the Lions and Seahawks are our friends. Root for those teams whenever they play another NFC contender. And of course, always root for an AFC team when head to head with and NFC team. I also think we can cross the Bucs, Packers and Cardinals off the list. We aren’t catching any of them and are likely division winners. So I’d say the Packers and Cardinals are also our friends. Personally, I still see the Rams as an unrealistic team to catch. Especially considering they get the Jags this week. I suppose you might as well root for Jax, but for now I’m saying the second place NFC West team gets a WC for sure. That leaves two spots for the rest of the fray. I think our two biggest enemies here at the 49ers and Vikings. Next would be Saints, due in large part to them owning that tie-breaker with us. Then you have the Falcons, Panthers, Giants, and Bears. Owning the tie-breaker with the Falcons and Panthers and being 1-0 against Giants really helps there. Those are teams in the mix that we can root against in obvious situations but might need assistance from in other situations. I really think right now, pouring energy into being anti-Vikings/49ers is your best bet. So what’s on tap this week… Well, root for us in Vegas of course. All games are big at this point, but if the goal is 4-2, then you’d want this one to be one of the two. Of our remaining 6 games, this would be the least damaging loss. Cowboys at Saints: I can see this one either way. To me, the “safer” bet is to root for Dallas and further bury the Saints. NOLA is the one team in this mix that can really mess this up for us. Considering we play Dallas twice, they can win Thursday night and we still control our destiny with them. The bright side to NOLA winning of course is that it opens up the East possibilities even more. I’ll be conservative here and hope Dallas wins— I’d also prefer to catch them off a win as opposed to a third straight loss. Also Saints schedule after this is fairly soft. They get this one, I think 9 wins for sure in play for them. Bucs at Falcons: Go Bucs… I guess? It’s possible having Atlanta involved in multi team tie-breakers would help us down the road, but that’s kind of wild to speculate on now. For now, simplest thing to do is root against other teams in the mix. Cardinals at Bears: Not sweating this one, but might as well root Arizona. Makes it easier to root for Bears later when we might need them. Vikings at Lions: Easy.. here’s to 1-10-1! Giants at Dolphins: Not too worried here either, but Giants could tie us if they win and we lose so pull for Miami. Eagles at Jets: J-E-T, oh probably save your breath here, but you know what I mean. Jags at Rams: Massive stretch, but Jags win can’t hurt. 49ers at Seahawks: Biggest one on the list other than our game. Niners have a few easy games remaining after this— and this one isn’t looking too tough these days either. Just need to hope Seahawks continue to at least try and maybe they finally get something figured out on offense. If I had a magic wand for any game this week, this would be the one I’d control in favor of Seattle.

Wow, thanks for sharing, this is incredible!

For me it’s not so much faith we can see that again, but hope. Honestly, my faith in the organization is pretty shot. That said, I’ll never give up hope— either that A) we luck into something that allows us to overcome even with Snyder or B- someday Snyder either sells or takes such a backseat to someone else (his son perhaps) and that person handles it better. Either way, I’ve decided I’ll continue to chase it— I guess until die. And along the way, I won’t be miserable. I’ll do my part to make sure I enjoy the experience— and i won’t let them totally ruin it for me. My son is 9 and this is his first year getting into it. We’ve had fun. I’ve explained to him that it’s not easy being a WFT fan and he almost seems to like the challenge of it. I mean ultimately I guess it’s about the personal memories anyway. We’ve enjoyed watching the games out on our deck together so far this year— had some exciting moments in our two wins. I figure why allow myself to get SO jaded that I deprive myself of that?

My theory is that there really aren’t that many of us— I’m talking the true, nitty gritty, message board regular, emotionally attached, die hard fans. That goes for ALL teams. I think the majority of fans of every single team are more on the casual side— it’s something fun and communal they enjoy. And in the seasons or stretches of seasons where the team isn’t competitive, they can tune out fairly easily and tune back in. The die hards chose to be that way, from what I believe is a very deep and psychological desire to be part of a team. Most of the fans that I’ve met that I consider to be “like me” are uber competitive and strongly value some older school ideals like loyalty, common cause, etc. I also think their is an understanding (maybe subconscious) that you can only achieve the thrill of fully enjoying the 1991 team if you also make yourself vulnerable to the bad outcomes. For me, it’s like my version of an adrenaline rush. Some people ride rollercoasters or jump out of planes or day trade. The action keeps them coming. For me, the “action” is attaching myself to the outcome of specific sports teams. It gives me a thrill outside of my day to day life that I don’t get anywhere else. I enjoy not knowing what will happen and starting a Gameday understanding that something out of my control is going to dictate how I feel. I know I will feel better with a win and worse with a loss— and the build up to that and the actual game experience is essentially an adrenaline rush chasing one of those two outcomes. So I know if I give it up, I’ll give up the pain, frustration, and disappointment that comes with the losing. But I’ll also give up the thrill and hope and adrenaline that comes with the winning- or at the very least— the hope of winning. And every time I picture that, it feels boring to me. Not something I want. I do my day to day stuff all the other days. I don’t want Sundays to become another day or errands and not getting too up or too down about anything. I want the rush. If I felt I could just switch teams and have it be the same, I obviously would have done that long ago. Problem is, in one form or another, I’ve always hated the other 31 teams in the league— because they were all the enemy at one point or another. In no way could I ever root for one of them. MAYBE if the league expanded again there would be a possibility there. But I doubt it. My pain from this franchise started in the Norv years, pre-Snyder. I’m in for the long haul now and determined to see it through. I just try and focus Sunday to Sunday. Hope this Sunday they do something that makes me happy. Move on to the next one. I still have a ton of fun with it and accept my role as a die hard fan caught up in the whirlwind of a dysfunctional franchise. Maybe even a small part of me takes pride in that. Stubborn, competitive, not wanting to quit.

To a certain extent, I agree, but not wholly. The Bills and Browns for example have also had ownership issues and controversies over this period— in the case of Cleveland, even a criminal investigation. Just about any losing franchise has fans that turn on ownership— Bengals fans LOATHE Mike Brown, etc. I also don’t think the fans would come back and stick around long if Dan sold the team to Mother Teresa and then never won. I think the sliminess makes it easier for fans to turn away, but in the end, I don’t think it matters all that much. If Dan was who is he but we lucked into a guy like Justin Herbert last year and we were cruising with him, there would be far less chatter about this. Conversely, if we had the nicest and cleanest owner in history but the team was going 5-12 every year, the fanbase wouldn’t be happy or filling the stands.

I dispute nothing of what you are saying here— I also think it’s why those cities are genuinely and legitimately “better” sports cities— it just matters more. I consider myself to be that type of fan— I just happen to root for teams somewhat randomly in terms of geography, which is what happens if you love pro sports and grow up in OK. The WFT is absolutely part of my identity and I accept and embrace that— even when it’s embarrassing at times. I was here before Snyder and one of us will outlast the other.

The fact that we’ve sucked is not in dispute. The topic is why do some fanbases of teams who have performed equally poorly or worse stick with their team more loyally than our fans have? I’m not even criticizing our fans— just pointing out that a few other fanbases have had it as bad or worse and have chosen to stick it out for whatever reason.

Maybe in terms of winning the division, but not in terms of making the playoffs. In that time span they only won more than 8 games twice (two non-playoff 9-7 seasons). Twelve seasons below .500 including NINE in a row.

The Vegas angle gives me some slight hope here. It’s Chiefs -6.5. Seems far too low on paper. Public is pounding Chiefs as you’d expect. I’m gamble more than I should and my general philosophy is to side with the house. The house is knowingly setting a line here understanding the public will load up on KC. So far there is no line movement, which means the books either aren’t getting “sharp” money on KC or they don’t care and are willing to roll dice on WFT. They don’t give money away— this line looks like stealing. I’d advise to tread lightly. If the line shoots up to 8+ before kickoff that would be a bit of tell.

This. Maybe someday I’ll be proven wrong, but my armchair shrink analysis of Snyder has always been this— he is more oblivious than nefarious. In the most basic terms, I’ve always felt he was the nerd in school who desperately wanted to sit with the jocks. He didn’t even necessarily need to be the star of the team— just invited to the parties and accepted by the group. I essentially think that’s what he’s done as owner here. He’s a fan and he wants to be included at the table. In his early years he was probably more petulant and childish when he didn’t get his way and has since become reclusive. I believe he is a poor judge of character and has no management/leadership skills. Things aren’t so bad if he has someone like Joe Gibbs around who can do the leading and is respected enough by Snyder to stay back. I think it’s similar with Rivera. But when he attaches to a sidekick like Vinny or Bruce, Dan is easily led into the dark. I firmly believe the majority of the the ugly behavior was happening without Dan having any real grasp of what was going on— now, he SHOULD have, but I don’t think he did. I don’t think he reads the room well at all and sounds like he’s pretty selective about which rooms he enters anyway. The women that came forward… none really called him out specifically— more of the lack of oversight stuff. There are a LOT of people that want to bury Snyder. A LOT. I believe if there was a smoking gun out there, it likely would have been revealed by now. Truth is, he’s probably just really, really bad at this job. But probably not doing anything that technically warrants removal.

I was 100% sure we were gonna lose that game. I remember really rooting for the Lions the week prior.

If the Lions haven’t sucked for 70 years, then no one has. They have ONE playoff win in approx 50 years. 1958-2020: One playoff win. One.

But ZERO playoff appearances between 1999-2017. Heck, we won two division titles and made it as a WC twice over same span.

Too close to Buffalo as well. Literally across the bridge.

Probably. But whatever the explanation, I do think it’s pretty clear that those fans in Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc have remained more committed and loyal than they have in DC— despite similar (or worse) circumstances. Not dumping on our fans here, just making an observation. Maybe like with Cubs fans— I don’t think they knew what to do after they won the WS— almost like there was a tinge of disappointment. Their entire identity was being a long suffering Cubs fan.

I am not a DMV guy, but I know many. I also know many from Cleveland and Detroit. Those Cleveland and Detroit fans are insane about being from where they are from. Rep it as loud and proud as they can. It’s almost as if every time the Lions lose it makes this one dude I know even more proud to be a suffering Lions fan. I don’t get that same feeling from DMV folks.

I don’t think this is entirely true. Until last season, the Browns were ABSOLUTELY as bad of an org as we’ve been— rife with ownership controversies and somehow even less on-field success than we’ve had. Same with the Lions. Both of those teams have maintained an incredibly loyal support from their fans. I think this is almost assuredly due to how those cities view those teams through a civic lens. Clevelanders are FIERCELY loyal to Cleveland and almost wear the Browns failures as a badge of honor— sort of an “if we can survive this, we can survive anything” mentality. And unlike the Redskins, their fans have no real glory to look back on. Their best years were filled with painful endings. The Lions have absolutely zero success in the lifetime of any Detroit fan. I’d add Buffalo to the mix as well as their run of ineptitude more or less coincided with ours until Josh Allen. Those are all rust-belt, older US cities with people that are very very proud to be where they are from and consider bailing on their home team treasonous— regardless of the abuse the team doles out to them. Redskins fan were pretty spoiled 1969-1992. That’s an entire generation and where most older fans came from. I’d say the fanbase held pretty strong for about 15-20 years after the glory years. Then around the 20 year mark (late 2000s/early 2010s) you started to see the cracks (Steelers takeover in 2008, Chiefs debacle in 2013). It’s just deteriorated since then. So the way I view it, approx 15 years or so was what our fanbase was able to stomach before bailing. Lions are on year 70.

Specifically as it relates to “fan invasions” that isn’t something entirely unique to FedEx. It happens BIG TIME in Dallas as well— and so far this year we’ve seen it in Vegas and Los Angeles too. Glendale gets invaded regularly, as does Miami. Certain fanbases roll everywhere. Heck, WFT fans show up in good numbers in several road locations— including ATL a couple of weeks ago. This is a new phenomenon probably over the past 15-20 years in the NFL. Back in the day, if a team stunk, the stadium was just empty. Now with more transient fans across the country, secondary tickets, etc.. it’s sort of become a “thing” to make NFL road trips and organize groups of fans to invade other stadiums. It doesn’t really happen in places like Detroit, Buffalo, Minnesota… these are less desirable vacation destinations and not easy places for fans to travel without making major arrangements. DC is perfect— people like to visit the area, and if you live in or around many of our opponents fanbases (Philly, NY, etc) it’s a very easy road trip. A place like Seattle is super insulated. Only team in the entire region. If you live in PNW, that’s your only option. Hard for opposing fans to just make a weekend out of it. Now, I do think it’s even worse at FedEx than other places. Our home fans hate the stadium and area, and have been there, done that. So secondary tickets are cheaper than other places. And because it’s a one-off for opposing fans, they don’t care much about the lack of stadium experience. And our geographic location is such that it is an easy place for most people to get to without breaking their backs (or wallets) to do so. A perfect storm of sorts. But not one entirely unique to FedEx.