First, can you please provide how Football Outsiders calculates "Adjusted" Man Games Lost?" I went to their site and could not get to the metric. I am not paying either. This is not to say I have a major problem with Football Outsiders overall. I have quoted them myself. But they are not the end all be all either. Sometimes the way they measure is at the very least questionable.
I do however have a subscription to mangameslost.com. They claim their client list includes 21 NBA, 16 NFL, 19 NHL and 8 MLB teams. Does that make them more accurate? Not sure. But it is at least a bit impressive.
They have both Man Games Lost due to injury and then Lost Approximate Value and Weighted Lost AV. The definitions from the site are below. They use the Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference. Again, is it perfect? Of course not. The primary issue with how they measure is it goes of historical for the player. So a rookie sensation is not given a much weight as a veteran. But at least it is a verifiable metric. Since 2009, the Redskins had the 12th highest number of man games. A little above average but not dramatically more. Some of the overall is skewed by 2015 and 2017 when they were very high. See chart below. Their rank per year was: 2009 - 16th, 2010 - 17th, 2011 - 22nd, 2012 - 9th, 2013 - 24th, 2014 - 10th, 2015 - 4th, 2016 - 20th, 2017 - 6th.
Here are the total man games lost by the NFL from 2009 to 2017: 2009 - 4095, 2010 - 4662, 2011 - 4621, 2012 - 5361, 2013 - 5355, 2014 - 5658, 2015 - 4874, 2016 - 6180, 2017 - 7548.
2009 was a bit low - a good thing. There was a fairly big jump from 2011 to 2012, right after the new CBA was signed. Stayed there until the last two years which were much higher. I believe a good portion of this is due to changes in practices and allowed hitting based on the CBA which has been my point from day one (some is the violence of the game and the players getting bigger, stronger, etc.) I have been watching this for the last 3 to 4 yrs. I believe that the initial increase was due to the immediate changes, or short term impacts. We are now seeing the long term impacts of limiting practices and hitting. This is not on the S&C staff or the team. This is what the players wanted. They need to fix it in the next CBA. So a couple of points before getting to the rest of the data:
1. There is a noticeable increase in lost man games due to injury after the current CBA was sign. A roughly 15% increase.
2. There has been now two more steps changes in the last two years. Using 2011 the baseline since it was the last year before the CBA: 2016 - 34% and 2017 - an incredible 63.3%!!
This to me is more than a coincidence.
Ok, so now the weighted numbers to complete the data for the Redskins. Let's look Lost AV. The Redskins overall is just below their Man Games lost chart. Overall, the Redskins are 9th since 2009. In terms of ranks year by year they are: 2009 - 3rd, 2010 - 13th, 2011 - 11th, 2012 - 14th, 2013 - 32th, 2014 - 11th, 2015 - 9th, 2016 - 4th, 2017 - 4th
Now, weighted Lost AV: I do not have where they ranked overall since 2009. They did not provide it and honestly I just do not have the time to do the calculations. Here are the year by year rankings: . 2009 - 2th, 2010 - 21th, 2011 - 17th, 2012 - 12th, 2013 - 29th, 2014 - 2nd, 2015 - 4th, 2016 - 21st, 2017 - 2nd.
My point here is that while the Redskins do seem to be in the top half more than their fair share, the Football Outsiders data painted a much more drastic picture. Without the definitions and based on the data from Mangameslost that is used by several NFL teams, I have a hard time believing the Football Outsiders data. Now if we can get the definitions and there is a logical reason they are showing it as more drastic I am more than willing to reconsider.
In the end, I believe getting on the team, and specifically the S&C coaches is a reaction more out of frustration of losing a player we all had high hopes than anything that is data driven. Could they have better facilities? Probably. But the guys not getting ice when they should is on them. At this point it's their careers. They have to take ownership. If the facility conditions are that bad the team leaders should be in Dan's office every day complaining - maybe they are. But I have to think that even Dan would relent if the players really pushed hard. As much as I dislike him, I do readily admit he is an actual fan. He would support them I think.
What is Lost-av? Lost-wav? How is it calculated for the NFL?
My NFL player-quality metrics now base the quality of a player on their AV (Approximate Value) and WAV (Weighted Career Approximate Value) scores as calculated at Pro-Football-Reference.com. AV scores are only available for previous season performances and don’t reflect current season performance. As such, during the regular season, injuries to rookies are adversely affected since they do not have a previous season AV score, and thus any rookie’s AV scores is effectively zero. They will have zero Lost-av or Lost-wav. The absence of an unknown cannot be measured effectively.
Only at season end do the AV vlues for all players in the season get calculated. Once they are available to Lost-av values for all players are recalculated, using the season’s new AV numbers available, substituting out the previous season AV values that had been used.
A higher Lost-av or Lost-wav number equals a greater impact of missing players to the team. A high Lost-av or Lost-wav value for a player reflects a high number of games missed due to injury, a high WAV or previous season AV value, or a combination of both. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, versus other players. This is the case with most statistics in the analytics of sport performance.
Lost AV is calculated as the AV(historic per game from the previous season) x PlayerGamesInjured for each player. At the team level, it is summed from the individual values for each player on each team.
NFL Lost-av = AV(historic per game from previous season) x PlayerGamesInjured
likewise for Lost-wav
NFL Lost-wav = WAV(historic per game from entire career) x PlayerGamesInjured