• Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


1 Follower

About goskins10

  • Rank
    The Run Stopper
  • Birthday 10/21/1960

Profile Information

  • Birthdate
  • Interests
    Golf, Football, Hockey, Cards
  • Redskins Fan Since
  • Favorite Redskin
    Darrell Green
  • Location
    Atlanta, GA
  • Zip Code

Recent Profile Visitors

8,153 profile views
  1. I had/have no problem with them signing Scandrick. He was virtually free insurance policy that they decided quickly they did not need. No harm what so ever bringing him in. There is $1M in dead money but adds $1.5M in CAP savings. I do agree it's good they see it early and moved on.
  2. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    I really do not think we that that far off but your response to @redskinss appeared to be now that Guice is gone there is virtually no reason to think we have any chance to have a decent running game. If I misunderstood then that's on me. But that's how it read and I disagree with that. And let me clear, I was as big on Guice as anyone, maybe more so. And I put my money so to speak where my mouth is. I drafted him at #26 in our mock draft (maybe I should stop drafting the guys I like. I drafted Doctson in the 1st also,,,). My only point is that players and teams evolve and that while Guice is a huge loss - I truly believe he could be a generational talent - there is still reason to believe we could be considerably better in the running game. That's not really that big a leap though is it?
  3. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    Not really true. Moses developed. He was considerably better in 2016 than 2015. Scherff was in his first year. Kelly and Jones are different. Perine another year. You can't just say these were the same players in X yr and assume they will be the same. Players do get better. I do agree that we cannot assume they will be better. But we should not just not throw in the towel before the season starts.
  4. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    Several factors: 1. The online while basically the same has a chance to be healthy. They were not at all healthy last year. So to say you expect the same performance healthy or not is disingenuous. The team was runnign better until they used 31 different line combinations. Key players like TW and Scherff missed significant time. Moses while not missing any starts was pretty banged most of the year. Now if they are just injury prone (Scherff took a cheap shot from a philly POS) then you are correct. No reason to assume anything better. 2. The development of players. Bibbs came in late. Perine has a full second year. Rookies make a hige jump from yr 1 to yr 2. And as someone pointed out his ave yds/carry went up as the season went on. We (meaning fans) need to have a little patience with these young guys. 3. A better D giving us better field position to run more. Also, will have more opportunities as the D should not routinely spend entire Qs on the field. Our O should get chances. 4. Alex Smith's ability and willingness to run. This means Ds can't sleep on him and stack the box. They will need to account for him. Those are just a few. Is this a guaranteed top 10 run offense? Of course not. But to just assume all will be the same is not reasonable either. There is reason to be hopeful. They still need to prove it on the field. I get that. But let's give them a chance.
  5. It's interesting that fans at exactly the same time complain the coaches do not develop guys but then trash all over a guy that is not a pro-bowler his first season. Developing guys means sticking with them in early years when they are not as good as they can be. This coaching staff has developed players - something critical to building through the draft. They have not been given enough credit for that.
  6. Is it time to fire the training staff?

    First, can you please provide how Football Outsiders calculates "Adjusted" Man Games Lost?" I went to their site and could not get to the metric. I am not paying either. This is not to say I have a major problem with Football Outsiders overall. I have quoted them myself. But they are not the end all be all either. Sometimes the way they measure is at the very least questionable. I do however have a subscription to mangameslost.com. They claim their client list includes 21 NBA, 16 NFL, 19 NHL and 8 MLB teams. Does that make them more accurate? Not sure. But it is at least a bit impressive. They have both Man Games Lost due to injury and then Lost Approximate Value and Weighted Lost AV. The definitions from the site are below. They use the Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference. Again, is it perfect? Of course not. The primary issue with how they measure is it goes of historical for the player. So a rookie sensation is not given a much weight as a veteran. But at least it is a verifiable metric. Since 2009, the Redskins had the 12th highest number of man games. A little above average but not dramatically more. Some of the overall is skewed by 2015 and 2017 when they were very high. See chart below. Their rank per year was: 2009 - 16th, 2010 - 17th, 2011 - 22nd, 2012 - 9th, 2013 - 24th, 2014 - 10th, 2015 - 4th, 2016 - 20th, 2017 - 6th. Here are the total man games lost by the NFL from 2009 to 2017: 2009 - 4095, 2010 - 4662, 2011 - 4621, 2012 - 5361, 2013 - 5355, 2014 - 5658, 2015 - 4874, 2016 - 6180, 2017 - 7548. 2009 was a bit low - a good thing. There was a fairly big jump from 2011 to 2012, right after the new CBA was signed. Stayed there until the last two years which were much higher. I believe a good portion of this is due to changes in practices and allowed hitting based on the CBA which has been my point from day one (some is the violence of the game and the players getting bigger, stronger, etc.) I have been watching this for the last 3 to 4 yrs. I believe that the initial increase was due to the immediate changes, or short term impacts. We are now seeing the long term impacts of limiting practices and hitting. This is not on the S&C staff or the team. This is what the players wanted. They need to fix it in the next CBA. So a couple of points before getting to the rest of the data: 1. There is a noticeable increase in lost man games due to injury after the current CBA was sign. A roughly 15% increase. 2. There has been now two more steps changes in the last two years. Using 2011 the baseline since it was the last year before the CBA: 2016 - 34% and 2017 - an incredible 63.3%!! This to me is more than a coincidence. Ok, so now the weighted numbers to complete the data for the Redskins. Let's look Lost AV. The Redskins overall is just below their Man Games lost chart. Overall, the Redskins are 9th since 2009. In terms of ranks year by year they are: 2009 - 3rd, 2010 - 13th, 2011 - 11th, 2012 - 14th, 2013 - 32th, 2014 - 11th, 2015 - 9th, 2016 - 4th, 2017 - 4th Now, weighted Lost AV: I do not have where they ranked overall since 2009. They did not provide it and honestly I just do not have the time to do the calculations. Here are the year by year rankings: . 2009 - 2th, 2010 - 21th, 2011 - 17th, 2012 - 12th, 2013 - 29th, 2014 - 2nd, 2015 - 4th, 2016 - 21st, 2017 - 2nd. My point here is that while the Redskins do seem to be in the top half more than their fair share, the Football Outsiders data painted a much more drastic picture. Without the definitions and based on the data from Mangameslost that is used by several NFL teams, I have a hard time believing the Football Outsiders data. Now if we can get the definitions and there is a logical reason they are showing it as more drastic I am more than willing to reconsider. In the end, I believe getting on the team, and specifically the S&C coaches is a reaction more out of frustration of losing a player we all had high hopes than anything that is data driven. Could they have better facilities? Probably. But the guys not getting ice when they should is on them. At this point it's their careers. They have to take ownership. If the facility conditions are that bad the team leaders should be in Dan's office every day complaining - maybe they are. But I have to think that even Dan would relent if the players really pushed hard. As much as I dislike him, I do readily admit he is an actual fan. He would support them I think. What is Lost-av? Lost-wav? How is it calculated for the NFL? My NFL player-quality metrics now base the quality of a player on their AV (Approximate Value) and WAV (Weighted Career Approximate Value) scores as calculated at Pro-Football-Reference.com. AV scores are only available for previous season performances and don’t reflect current season performance. As such, during the regular season, injuries to rookies are adversely affected since they do not have a previous season AV score, and thus any rookie’s AV scores is effectively zero. They will have zero Lost-av or Lost-wav. The absence of an unknown cannot be measured effectively. Only at season end do the AV vlues for all players in the season get calculated. Once they are available to Lost-av values for all players are recalculated, using the season’s new AV numbers available, substituting out the previous season AV values that had been used. A higher Lost-av or Lost-wav number equals a greater impact of missing players to the team. A high Lost-av or Lost-wav value for a player reflects a high number of games missed due to injury, a high WAV or previous season AV value, or a combination of both. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, versus other players. This is the case with most statistics in the analytics of sport performance. Lost AV is calculated as the AV(historic per game from the previous season) x PlayerGamesInjured for each player. At the team level, it is summed from the individual values for each player on each team. NFL Lost-av = AV(historic per game from previous season) x PlayerGamesInjured likewise for Lost-wav NFL Lost-wav = WAV(historic per game from entire career) x PlayerGamesInjured
  7. Is it time to fire the training staff?

    Also @Morneblade Can you please be specific about these more proactive and innovative things others teams are going that the Redskins are not doing. And I mean specifics. Not just, they do better. Please provide tangible verifiable examples. Not being a smart ass here. I am more than willing to learn something. Just to be fair, I have plenty of data that says other teams struggle with injuries and in fact injuries in the NFL have gone up dramatically over all since the last CBA. But I would be interested in hearing what exactly the Redskins are not doing that they should be. Also, I just do not have time right now to dig everything up. But one nugget is: Since 2009 no team had 300 or more lost man games due to injury until 2016. In 2016 there were 4 teams, Last year (2017) there were 9. I know people want to pin this on the team - and hey I love a good FO bashing as much as the next fan. But this one is way off base.
  8. Ok, this completely sucks. But let's get a few things out of the way. 1. No! this previous injury had nothing to do with him falling in the draft. He had fully healed by the end of the season. Please look at the Bowl game against Notre Dame. He had been fully cleared and showed no signs of any issues. Media is just reaching trying to justify their believing the off the field issues and making him drop in the draft. First article I see is something about Redskins rookie RB with questionable history is injured. I can't find it again unfortunately but when I do I will post here. Also, let's look at who reported it. Ian ****ing rappaport. Has he ever been right with the Redskins? Also, he was one leading the charge about Guice being a problem. It's a load of crap. 2. No!! The Redskins should not over-react and trade for or sign some aging RB FA! There are enough horses in the house. Yes, they are not great work horse backs. But in then end the offense is at least decent without it. Will be time to see what Alex can actually do. 3. Some said this is good news for Perrine. Maybe. But I think it's better news for Bibbs or Marshall. Both of who I believe are at least as good if not better than any RB we have not named Guice or Thompson. 4. No, the season is not a complete loss. Let's remember that more than Guice, the DLine has been infused with major talent. One of the true bright spots in the preseason game was Settle. I do not want to see Iaonnidis miss games but I have to believe there is enough depth now that his loss can be overcome. Yes, I realize he and Settle play different positions, but it gives them flexibility. You do not have to put Payne at NT. I have dreamed of a front 3 when we do line up in 3-4 (not starting the conversation here), of Allen, Settle and Payne. I know people do not like Hood., But I believe he can play DE at a high level in a back-up role. We will likely see if Iao misses significant time. 5. Last but not least - anyone who really had a true problem with Guice and his lollipop - please get a life!! Marshawn Lynch used to have his coaches hand feed him Skittles along with keeping his own stash on the sidelines! If Guice having a lollipop in his mouth is unprofessional, I promise you do not want to know some of the other habits many other players have. Just need to get over yourself. Ok, rant over. If you made it this far, I am not sure if I appreciate it or feel bad for you.
  9. Gameday Thread: Redskins @ Patriots

    Like seeing Stroman getting some punt returns. Looking good too. Hoping that let's Crowder mostly work on being a WR.
  10. Bear with me. I am mostly in agreement with your overall premise. They have invested plenty of draft capitol. In fact they have drafted at least 1 RB in every draft since 2011. None have really worked out except Alfred Morris. And he was a decent RB in a very good system for him. He has not exactly lit the world up since then. So they have invested draft capitol, just not high draft capitol. That is what they did different. The highest rd before was Matt Jones in the 3rd in 2015. I felt like he was a reach then and it turned out to be accurate. All you have heard the last 10+ yrs is don't draft a RB in the first or even 2nd rd. You can get guys just as good in later rounds. However, I think teams are finally rethinking that strategy. In general, you are seeing more RBs taken in higher rounds than previous years. Some of that is simply better talent at RB coming out of college. E Elliott is a generational talent. Fournette has that same chance. Same with Barkley, and IMO Guice and a few others taken high. I really like Chubb and Michel. Not really a Ronald Jones fan. But that's a different conversation. I do think we need to wait till we see him against real competition - and I mean on Sundays during the regular season. Also, this fan-base is so desperate for a "hero", I am fearful there no way for him to live up to expectations. I hope people realize he is going to fumble eventually. He is going to stopped for a loss, miss a block, run a poor route and pick the wrong hole. I hope people are patient enough with him.... not:
  11. Preseason depth charts are meaningless. Anyone who saw Jay's presser say that he was not even sure they had a depth chart. He seemed genuinely surprised that Tony Wylie had sent it out. He said thanks since they have to before games. And so yes, "so it begins." The complaining because the new man crush is not getting treated a certain way. I love me some Guice. He was one of my favorite players in the draft before it ever happened (I drafted him in our mock draft!). But not getting stressed if they still have him listed as the #4 RB. Certainly not taking it as a slam from the coaches. Totally absurd. I have to think anyone saying that was kidding - at least I hope they were. For tonight's game, being 4th could actually mean they have already penciled him as the opening day starter, or at least the #2, and are giving other guys touches to see if they make the team.
  12. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    I think I see what you are trying to say but if I am being honest it's not very clear. And that is possibly due to maybe I was not clear enough in what I was saying. Following is my attempt to clear up both. I believe what you are saying is that for a player to be brought back from IR, they must make the final 53 man pre-season roster. So they cannot put him on IR right now, then have a 53 man roster, then bring him back. I agree which is why I said he will probably be put on the PUP list. That is the purpose of the PUP list. I was then trying to make an additional point that you can now not only bring players back from IR if they are placed there during the regular season (what I left out), you do not have to designate them for return when you place them on IR. Also, instead of just one player you can now bring two players back. So yes, Arie cannot be brought back as he has already been put on IR and as such will clearly not make the final 53. As for McGee, they would have to keep him on the 53 then put him on IR if they wanted to bring him - but they could do that. However, as stated the PUP makes much more sense. This does allow them to postpone the decision until at least week 6. Then they can either leave him on PUP, activate him to the final 53 (and release someone else), or release/waive them. I also believe once he practices they have 21 days to make a decision. Otherwise he can remain on PUP as long as they want him to.
  13. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    I think you are probably right about the PUP for McGee if they know he is returning. But do remember that the IR rules are temporarily changed until the next CBA. The team does not have to designate the player for return and they can bring back up to 2 players now, not just one. I also agree they probably just keep 6. I think Hood is the 6th. I know fans don't like him but the coaches do. But they may surprise us and go with 7. Oddly enough they could go with 2 QBs. I know that seems odd since they trade for Hogan. But roster spots are important. With the injuries to Allen and Iaonnidis last year and Payne a little dinged up this year, I could see them keeping 7. The personnel decisions will be interesting either way.
  14. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    Just to complete the story - here are the snap counts for our WRs last year. Doctson took more snaps than any other WR. In fact, when you back out the STs snaps for Crowder and Grant the gap widens considerably. Source: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts
  15. Official 2018 Redskins Training Camp/Preseason Thread

    Do we know which one was on which side? I am guessing Nsekhe at LT Christian at RT? If I remember Christian played both in college. Just curious.