In reference to the part in bold, I believe they had a pretty good idea that he would still be there. They would have looked at the teams picking between the picks and determined each teams needs and likely draft pick. If get it's still a risk but they clearly still had other players they liked and felt could make an impact at 59. This coming from someone who drafted him at 26 in the ES Mock Draft - We did this well before the bogus character issues were discussed. I trade back from 13 to get an additional 2nd rd pick.
Below are the teams that picked between 44 and 59, who their RB is and my opinion on why they felt that team would not take RB before 59. Trying my best not to use hindsight - but the thought process during the draft. If you feel any of logic is flawed it could be a good discussion. Having said that, of all the teams in front of them at 59, IMO Indy was the only team that represented any real threat to take RB. And even they would already be giving up on last yrs 2nd rd pick.
GB - RB - Ty Montgomery. Also, they have Aaron Rogers and a really bad D that cost them games last yr. Spending a 2nd pick on RB does not make much sense - yes I know they took CB in the 1st, but notice they took CB again in the 2nd.
KC- Kareem Hunt - Enough said.
AZ - David Johnson - With only 6 picks and more urgent needs - especially after taking Rosen in the 1st, Guice would have been a luxury pick - one they could not afford.
LA C - Melvin Gordon - ranked 7th best RB in the NFL - RB was just not a need- certainly not in the 2nd rd.
PH - Thay have a corral of RBs - Ajayi, Sproles, Smallwood - ANd they had just 5 picks - that 2nd being their 1st pick. No way they take Guice.
Dallas - Elliott - No way they take a RB in the 2nd. I could see a late rd pick as some insurance in case Elliott does something stupid again or/and as a back-up. But like AZ, this would be a true luxury pick, one they cannot afford if they want to compete for PO spot. Also they need big help on D. I will go hindsight here - they took the best OG left on the board knowing they are about to pay some big money to their Oline (See Martin announcement) and will likely have to let one or two go. If was a great pick by them - as much as I hate to say it. But RB was never happening.
CH - Jordan Howard - # 6 RB in the NFL. I can see a later pick but you are not using a 2nd rd pick for RB. They had bigger needs - WR for one which as it turns out is where they went.
Indy - Maron Mack - Not going to scare anyone. However, they have Luck coming back and their game relies more heavily on him and the passing game. Also, Mack is a 2nd player that had an up and down season last year - 2nd in the league for 0 yd carries but also leading the league in carries over 20 yds. Having just invested a 4th rd pick last year, have luck come back this yr and more pressing needs, it was a good bet they would not go RB. Having said that, to this point this team presents the biggest risk.
TB - They had already selected Ronald Jones at 38. Zero chance they go Guice.
Cinn - Giovanni Bernard and Joe Mixon who they used a 2nd pick on last yr after some character issues - punching girls. I do not think he should be in the NFL, but it's not my call. From a football standpoint he did a pretty good job as a rookie. No chance they use a 2nd rd pick on RB again this yr.
Carolina - They just took Christian McCaffery in the 1st last yr. He did a great job for them. Also, Cam takes a lot RB snaps away. RB for them at this would be a wasted 2nd rd pick.
NE - They took Sony Michel in the 1st at 31. Zero chance they go RB again in the 2nd at 56.
Oak - Marshawn Lunch and they just brought on Doug Martin. I could see a mid to late rd pick investment, but with those two guys they are not going RB in the 2nd.
Atl - Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman - Between the two they make a pretty good backfield. Could Atl have chosen to take Guice? I guess, but it seems unlikely given they have two backs already and they had other bigger needs. Again, I could see a mid to more likely a late rd flyer, but not in the 2nd.