HTTRDynasty

Members
  • Content count

    2,822
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

About HTTRDynasty

  • Rank
    The Benchwarmer
  • Birthday 06/25/1989

Profile Information

  • Redskins Fan Since
    Since Birth
  • Favorite Redskin
    Sean Taylor
  • Location
    Valencia, CA
  • Interests
    Enjoy playing and watching football, basketball. I also read a lot.
  • Occupation
    Student
  1. Is this the best Defensive Front we've had in years?

    PFF knows. NFL pass-rush rankings: All 32 team's entering 2018 6. WASHINGTON REDSKINS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP: Edge Defender: Ryan Kerrigan, 85.6 overall grade Defensive Interior: Jonathan Allen, 81.3 Defensive Interior: Matt Ioannidis, 79.2 Edge Defender: Preston Smith, 76.0 Key Rotational Player: Da’Ron Payne, 87.7* (2017 college grade), Pernell McPhee, 79.9 Pressure Percentage as a team, 2017: 37.9% (8th) Of the team’s in our top six, this is the one that I expect will surprise people the most, and that’s because the Redskins pass-rush was quietly one of the best in the NFL last season. Kerrigan produced 18 sacks and added four hits and 42 hurries, but with the Redskins struggling in general, it felt like his big performance didn’t get the credit it deserved, despite making the Pro Bowl. Where the Redskins can really impress people this season though is on the defensive interior. Ioannidis quietly produced the 14th-highest graded pass-rush grade among interior defenders last season, while the rising second-year star in Allen was on course to also rank inside the top 20 before injuries ruined his first season in the NFL.
  2. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    He was playing for his opportunity at a LTD.
  3. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    I've actually been a pretty big Kirk supporter throughout his time here, but this is the kind of stuff that I really can't stand. I agree with Paul C. here.
  4. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    So... this is... disturbing. Happy to have a guy at QB now who is always playing for team success and doesn't make excuses.
  5. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    I’ve already said that I share SIP’s concern about Smith’s age long-term. But for me, it’s more about his arm strength. When it comes to his legs, one thing to note is that Alex is actually a few months younger than Aaron Rodgers, who is much more of a dual-threat QB than Alex is (even though Alex ran a slightly faster 40). I highly doubt the Packers are worried about Rodgers losing his effectiveness in a couple seasons just because he might lose a step or two. Mind you, Rodgers is probably the most talented QB in NFL history, so they’d be fools to worry about that. But I really don’t think either one of these guys’ athleticism will fall off a cliff at age 37/38. In a few years, they’ll both probably still be faster than Kirk is now, for example.
  6. Is this the best Defensive Front we've had in years?

    Washington may come as a surprise as the defense with the highest pressure rate (38.3 percent) last season. The Redskins were only No. 12 in pressure rate in 2016, but none of the top four teams here ranked higher than 12th in 2016. Washington has used a lot of high draft picks on edge rushers over the years, but old reliable Ryan Kerrigan led the way with 35 hurries and 13 sacks. Preston Smith chipped in 29 hurries, and Junior Galette (24 hurries) finally returned to action after tearing his Achilles two years in a row. Washington has not brought Galette back, but looks to get more than five games out of Jonathan Allen, a first-round rookie who was injured. What Washington really missed last season was better play in the secondary. Although cornerback Josh Norman was not thrown at very frequently, he was disappointing when he was targeted, ranking just 60th in adjusted success rate and 76th in adjusted yards per pass allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-pass-pressure-2017
  7. Yep. Also, per below, it's not like we're not used to having slow CBs in this scheme, lol.
  8. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    I agree. I believe he was far more efficient than Kirk last year. I said he had "far better efficiency on those attempts, with a much higher YPA". I wasn't just limiting the efficiency comparisons to YPA. Maybe I phrased it wrong (and I definitely never used completion percentage; see below). Passing TD/INT Ratio Smith: 5.2 Cousins: 2.1 Total (including rushing) TD/Turnover Ratio Smith: 3.9 Cousins: 1.2 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt Smith: 8.6 Cousins: 7.5 The above efficiency ratings are the ones that matter most to me, the ones I review at the end of every year, and the ones I personally think have the most descriptive insight (from a broad-based analytics perspective) in regards to giving a snapshot view on how a QB has performed over the season (without getting into play-by-play statistics and the more granular statistics) as the goal of the game is to move the ball down the field efficiently (A/YPA) and score points without turning the ball over to the other team (TD/INT% and TD/TO%). These efficiency stats are much more important and telling than completion percentage, IMO, as players like Wentz (60.2%) and Wilson (61.3%) can be made to look as if they had pedestrian seasons last year based on this metric, while players like Josh McCown (67.3%) will look much better than they actually were. Here are the 2015-2017 numbers by the way (even though I was just using 2017 numbers in order to illustrate Smith could maintain good efficiency while putting up good bulk stats too): Passing TD/INT Ratio Smith: 3.1 Cousins: 2.3 Total (including rushing) TD/Turnover Ratio Smith: 2.1 Cousins: 1.4 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt Smith: 7.8 Cousins: 7.8 I agree that Alex has his strengths, while Kirk has his. If I am forced to choose though, I am more partial to the QB who gets single-digit interceptions every season, while putting up a good TD% as well, as I believe this facet of the game has the biggest impact on swinging momentum and outcomes one way or the other. Don't get me wrong, I still think Kirk is a good player, who will do well in Minnesota. I just think Alex might be better for our team as it is currently constructed, especially if Guice and the defense live up to their potential. You can see below, a graphic representation of how much turnover differential matters when it comes to wins and losses: 2017 Season I share SIP's concerns about Smith's age, and I hated the trade when it went down. Though I have warmed up to it after we traded down in the 2nd and picked up a better 3rd than we originally had, for free, while still getting a top 2 RB in the draft. I will still miss Fuller, but I understand why we made the move, and I think it could work out for us... even though I'll hate having to watch Bruce Allen smugly taking credit for it, for however long we remain successful if the trade does work out. Actually, it's funny you bring this up. Per DVOA (which takes starting field position for the defense and other variables into account), the Chiefs actually had the 32nd ranked run defense in the league last year (Redskins were 29th; Patriots actually ranked 31st) and they were able to win 10 games. I think the biggest reason the Chiefs were still able to win double-digit games with such a putrid defense is made apparent in that turnover differential graph shown above. Which circles back to the article I quoted from Keim, and the reason for my optimism concerning an improvement in Win total this season. We will obviously also need guys to stay healthy (Guice, OL, and Reed especially), but I think we can expect to be in the upper right hand quadrant of that graph this time next year if Alex continues to take care of the ball as well as he has throughout his career.
  9. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    @goskins10 Yes, I was referring to 2017, because SIP said he wasn't sure Smith could maintain his efficiency in a Gruden offense, given how much Gruden expects his QBs to pass. My point was that Alex has proven he can be very successful when asked to pass as much as Cousins was asked to. The stats you show from the other years (TD to INT ratio, which is probably the most important efficiency stat out there, should be included in this as well) somewhat proves my point that Reid's lack of aggressiveness through the air in prior years held Smith's bulk numbers back. My overall point is that I have no doubt that if Gruden asks Smith to pass as much as he asked Cousins to pass, he will still maintain his efficiency. Re injuries: yes, Cousins had to deal with an unreal amount of injuries around him last year. There's no doubt about that. He deserves a tremendous amount of credit for battling through it. I agree with pretty much all the rest of your post. I am probably more of a Smith believer than most here, but I am not sitting here thinking he will lead us to the promised land anytime soon without a significant amount of help around him. I also share SIP's concern about his long-term impact here due to his age (especially with his already below average arm strength and his dependence on his legs. But I do think he is capable of doing very well in Gruden's offense in the short term, and I also think his proven ability to limit turnovers will be the deciding factor (other than injury) in getting us to double digit wins this year.
  10. Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

    @Skinsinparadise So, I get that you understand Alex put up great stats last season, and we both acknowledge it was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. I think the difference between us here stems from the fact that you’re attributing all (or most) of Smith’s statistical improvement in 2017 vs prior years to the improvement of Smith’s supporting cast on offense. For me, while I acknowledge that Smith had a great supporting cast on offense last year, I also attribute Smith’s increase in yards, YPA, and TD’s to the fact that the Chiefs offense was forced to play much more aggressively last year due to their terrible defense. I guess there’s no real stat that can prove either of us right here, but I will continue to look at context to the greatest extent possible (in totality) when evaluating a player’s performance (not saying that you don’t - I view you as easily one of the best posters on this site, and you are usually very insightful) but I might assign a higher value on certain aspects of what caused a player to improve or regress, like defense and play-calling, that you or someone else doesn’t place a high value on. In regards to supporting cast, my main contention was that Smith had a good cast in 2016, but put up pedestrian bulk numbers. Obviously, he had Maclin and Tyreek-lite in 2016 vs. a Tyreek who truly emerged in 2017 and he had a solid RB1 in Ware in 2016 vs Hunt in 2017, so he received obvious upgrades in 2017, but I think if the Chief’s defense was as bad in 2016 as it was in 2017, you would have seen Reid become a much more aggressive play-caller that year. Maybe the results wouldn’t have been as good as 2017 due to the lack of equivalent talent around Smith that year, but I think his bulk stats would have been much more impressive than they were. Oddly enough, in Smith’s career year stats-wise, the Chiefs actually finished with the second worst record (10 wins) from his tenure there. While in 2016, which was arguably Smith’s worst year from a bulk stats standpoint, the Chiefs won 12 games. Which goes to show football has always been, and always will be a TEAM game, which I think circles back nicely to the point we both agree on: no QB will be all that successful from a W-L perspective without a strong supporting cast around him.