(My opinion)Why we didn’t trade down and why Gibbs doesnt expect us to contend in 2K4

[Oldskool]

OK its been over 24 hours and I think ive finally digested the fact that we drafted Sean Taylor. No, I haven’t changed my mind that this was a poor pick, but I think I have gleamed a bit of knowledge of what Joe Gibbs was thinking. And it goes a little something like this:

Taylor was a pick that Gregg Williams wanted more than anything else and I think Joe Gibbs kind of deferred to him on this, due to most of the big offseason moves being on the offensive side of the ball. Williams saw more potential in having another playmaker in the secondary this year than having several playmakers on the D line. His decision to take Taylor over trading down is akin to having several holes in a dam and only having one piece of putty to seal a crack; do you split it apart and seal all the cracks or do you place all the putty on one crack and hope the rest don’t break. My personal feeling is that he is over rating the ability of our D line, but we shall see.

Williams’ scheme depends on having the D line occupy the front four blockers, allowing the linebackers and safeties to come off the edges. The issue that remains is that our D line cannot apply pressure to the QB or the opposition’s O line to require a double team. As it stands now our D line looks like this:

LDE: Wynn avg 3 sacks/year

LDT: Griffin avg 3 sacks/year

RDT: Haley avg 1 sack/year

RDE: Daniels avg 5.5 sacks/year

Gibbs and Williams know that as the line stands now, the defense cannot click as well as the defenses of the Titans or the Bills have during his tenures there. Whether they can coach up these players and allow his scheme to work this year is a mystery. I don’t think you can get more out of Haley and Wynn that you got last year, Griffin needs a 300+ NT/DT next to him to be as successful as he was in his rookie year. Daniels has the most potential of all of them but how much does he have in his tank?

Back to the topic of the title of the thread, I don’t think Gibbs expects us to contend this year. Why? Well….

1. Our offense isn’t complete yet. We do not have the prototypical H-back yet on the roster that Gibbs needs to run his offense. I think that Cartwright, and Sellers may be used in this respect but aren’t the perfect fit for the job.

2. Our defensive line will be a major weakness this year. Even though we have added playmakers in our secondary, they wont be enough to hold our defense together.

3. Even though we have a semi-ball control offense, our offense wont be able to depend on the defense to make critical stops at the end of games or during critical moments. D line will have to be the number one priority of next years draft (well ive said that before and Ill actually believe it when I see it).

4. It takes more than one year for players to fully grasp a new offense and defense.

Predictions…

Our D line will be in the bottom half of the league in sacks and tackles. Our LB’s will have at least 85 tackles from each of the 3 positions. Overall defense will be no better than 16th in total defense.

I wont make predictions on the overall record till the beginning of the season. Id like to see whom we pick up after June 1st (although I don’t expect/see a difference maker being released for us to acquire).

[ibrahim]

I dont agree with a lot of things u said...insightful but I just dont agree....first of all, the dline isnot a bad as some of you think it is...its not a star studded d-line but it comprises of guys that have gotten the job done before. Wynn (average to above average)..Daniels (above average)...Noble/Holsey (average) and Griffin (avergae to above average) with the LBs, safeties, and corners we have, the defense is evry okay!

You skins fans have been spoilt with dannys spendin sprees n fixin all holes n one offseason, dats what causes views like urs...no knock on u, jus sayin what i feel.

an offense with Samuels, Jansen, Randy Thomas, Lavareneuous Coles, Clinton Portis, Mark Brunell, Kowslowski (as primary blocker) is very very tight!

defense with Taylor, Arrington, Washington, Bowen, Barrow, Fred Smoot, an average to above average dline is very very okay! very

are we gonna win the super bowl and blow out the Pats doing it? i dont know, but this team is set up 2 b damn well off tha hook. we'll see where it goes from here.

ma 2 cents.

[JerseyGator]

If Gibbs is as good as most on this board claim (and I believe them), he will make the offense click by mid-season, especially if Brunell is the QB. With talent like Coles, Portis and Brunell, most coaches should be able to change their system somewhat.

[Aluadan]

Your title alone really doesn't make sense. If you didn't think you were going to contend right away and didn't plan on it I would expect a team to trade down to pick up more players that can learn over a year and get better. Instead by staying with the 5th pick you should get a player (depending on position) that can contribute right away and usually in a big way. He's ready to win now and thinking that without 1 big name D-lineman that we have going to lose is nuts. Also I don't know why you think you need a superstar to play H-back, the guy needs to block and have good hands. He doesn't have to have reciever speed as you can get him open through play design, he just needs to catch the ball. Don't over react as it seems so many people that like to start new topics do.

[Skins26]

We took Sean Taylor b/c he was the best player in the draft. We decided on him over Winslow. The D Line was not a consideration b/c none of them were even close to good enough to give up a guy like Taylor for.

Which is exactly why Udeze was not taken at #9 by the Jags, and he fell all the way down to the Vikings.

The D Line wasnt worth giving up a player like Taylor in order to get two guys that are average for.

I am shocked that you think Taylor is a poor pick. That is absolutely insane. I dont think you realize how good this guy is.

The Browns were trying to move ahead of us to take TAYLOR not Winslow, so that should show you something as well, that it wasnt just us picking Taylor over Winslow either.

Taylor was by far the best pick for this team. We got an excellent player who will electrify FedEx and I cant wait to watch him do it.

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by ibrahim

I dont agree with a lot of things u said...insightful but I just dont agree....first of all, the dline isnot a bad as some of you think it is...its not a star studded d-line but it comprises of guys that have gotten the job done before. Wynn (average to above average)..Daniels (above average)...Noble/Holsey (average) and Griffin (avergae to above average) with the LBs, safeties, and corners we have, the defense is evry okay!

You skins fans have been spoilt with dannys spendin sprees n fixin all holes n one offseason, dats what causes views like urs...no knock on u, jus sayin what i feel.

Star studded D line? OK now I know that your hitting the :bong: too much. There isnt a single superstar on this line.

an offense with Samuels, Jansen, Randy Thomas, Lavareneuous Coles, Clinton Portis, Mark Brunell, Kowslowski (as primary blocker) is very very tight!

defense with Taylor, Arrington, Washington, Bowen, Barrow, Fred Smoot, an average to above average dline is very very okay! very

are we gonna win the super bowl and blow out the Pats doing it? i dont know, but this team is set up 2 b damn well off tha hook. we'll see where it goes from here.

ma 2 cents.

This thread has little to do with the offense other than the fact that it will take more than 1 year for the players to grasp it.

[Skins26]

Oldskool,

he said it was NOT a star studded D Line.

[RF4L]

Originally posted by Oldskool

OK its been over 24 hours and I think ive finally digested the fact that we drafted Sean Taylor. No, I haven’t changed my mind that this was a poor pick, but I think I have gleamed a bit of knowledge of what Joe Gibbs was thinking. And it goes a little something like this:

Taylor was a pick that Gregg Williams wanted more than anything else and I think Joe Gibbs kind of deferred to him on this, due to most of the big offseason moves being on the offensive side of the ball. Williams saw more potential in having another playmaker in the secondary this year than having several playmakers on the D line. His decision to take Taylor over trading down is akin to having several holes in a dam and only having one piece of putty to seal a crack; do you split it apart and seal all the cracks or do you place all the putty on one crack and hope the rest don’t break. My personal feeling is that he is over rating the ability of our D line, but we shall see.

Williams’ scheme depends on having the D line occupy the front four blockers, allowing the linebackers and safeties to come off the edges. The issue that remains is that our D line cannot apply pressure to the QB or the opposition’s O line to require a double team. As it stands now our D line looks like this:

LDE: Wynn avg 3 sacks/year

LDT: Griffin avg 3 sacks/year

RDT: Haley avg 1 sack/year

RDE: Daniels avg 5.5 sacks/year

Gibbs and Williams know that as the line stands now, the defense cannot click as well as the defenses of the Titans or the Bills have during his tenures there. Whether they can coach up these players and allow his scheme to work this year is a mystery. I don’t think you can get more out of Haley and Wynn that you got last year, Griffin needs a 300+ NT/DT next to him to be as successful as he was in his rookie year. Daniels has the most potential of all of them but how much does he have in his tank?

Back to the topic of the title of the thread, I don’t think Gibbs expects us to contend this year. Why? Well….

1. Our offense isn’t complete yet. We do not have the prototypical H-back yet on the roster that Gibbs needs to run his offense. I think that Cartwright, and Sellers may be used in this respect but aren’t the perfect fit for the job.

2. Our defensive line will be a major weakness this year. Even though we have added playmakers in our secondary, they wont be enough to hold our defense together.

3. Even though we have a semi-ball control offense, our offense wont be able to depend on the defense to make critical stops at the end of games or during critical moments. D line will have to be the number one priority of next years draft (well ive said that before and Ill actually believe it when I see it).

4. It takes more than one year for players to fully grasp a new offense and defense.

Predictions…

Our D line will be in the bottom half of the league in sacks and tackles. Our LB’s will have at least 85 tackles from each of the 3 positions. Overall defense will be no better than 16th in total defense.

I wont make predictions on the overall record till the beginning of the season. Id like to see whom we pick up after June 1st (although I don’t expect/see a difference maker being released for us to acquire).

:snore:

[jbooma]

in your astute analyis i guess you have noticed all the rookie QB's we will be facing this year :doh:

gibbs never drafted DL high, hte majority of the ones he got were free agents or plan b, have faith the know more then us and you for sure

you and yomor should create the we need dl help fund :laugh:

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by Skins26

We took Sean Taylor b/c he was the best player in the draft. We decided on him over Winslow. The D Line was not a consideration b/c none of them were even close to good enough to give up a guy like Taylor for.

Which is what I said. I said would he rather try to fix one hole or try to fix them all in one shot. Ive never had questions about Taylors ability, only the approach to fix the defense that was going to be taken.

Which is exactly why Udeze was not taken at #9 by the Jags, and he fell all the way down to the Vikings.

The D Line wasnt worth giving up a player like Taylor in order to get two guys that are average for.

Funny I didnt mention Udeze but now that you have, its funny that almost all analysts have him as the steal of the draft. A double digit DE with speed and that can stop the run falling to 20's is unheard of. They are right.

I am shocked that you think Taylor is a poor pick. That is absolutely insane. I dont think you realize how good this guy is.

Taylor was by far the best pick for this team. We got an excellent player who will electrify FedEx and I cant wait to watch him do it.

One more time, I never knocked his ability only the wisdom of the pick. His talents are great but he does not have the D line in front of him to maximize his abilities.

This is why Gibbs doesnt expect us to contend. We took the best player available in his and Williams' mind, but they know that there isnt the cast in front of him to allow him to be "Sean Taylor" like he was at U of Miami.

[BG]

Your pluggin the dam analogy is pretty close, but I don't think for one second that the staff thinks we won't win.

Given the market on the tackles out there, the staff obviously budgeted themselved for one splash on the line. While Damiels cost us a bit, Griffen really was the only splash we made there on the line.

Since the era of FA is one of uncharted territory for Gibbs, he's no doubt taking it step by step and adressing what he sees as the biggest needs. !st and foremost was a potent offense. Second was a strong secondary. One of the glaring weaknesses musta have been that secondary. Champ and Smoot were great, but other than that, we obviously had nothing, so we are loaded in the secondary.

We also seem to forget that we blitzed one time laste year sucessfully and it wasn't even a play called by a coach. It was Armistead.........

So expect pressur from the backers and secondary while the line takes up the blocks.....

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by jbooma

in your astute analyis i guess you have noticed all the rookie QB's we will be facing this year :doh:

gibbs never drafted DL high, hte majority of the ones he got were free agents or plan b, have faith the know more then us and you for sure

you and yomor should create the we need dl help fund :laugh:

Which rookie QB's?

Manning wont start this year and Palmer is the only starting "rookie" QB out there.

When Gibbs last coached, there wernt 32 teams trying to grab the same players were there? I hate to admit it but he isnt going to find another Daryl Gardener after June 1st.

[bubba9497]

its not a star studded d-line but it comprises of guys that have gotten the job done before

just helping out

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by bubba9497

just helping out

I saw that after I posted but I havent had a chance to comment. Too busy fending off the wolves.

[ArmchairRedskin]

I object to you saying Gibbs doesn't expect to contend on principle alone. I'd say if you seriously think that, then you don't know coach Gibbs.

[jbooma]

Originally posted by Oldskool

Which rookie QB's?

Manning wont start this year and Palmer is the only starting "rookie" QB out there.

When Gibbs last coached, there wernt 32 teams trying to grab the same players were there? I hate to admit it but he isnt going to find another Daryl Gardener after June 1st.

Manning will be starting for the Giants because Collins is gone. Carson Palmer counts as a rooke since he has never played.

By the time we play the steelers expect to see Big Ben. We play Chicago and Grossman has only started what 2 games. Kyle Boller and his 6 or 7 starts we will see. I also think we might see a young QB when we play the 49ers.

With our secondary and all the young not experienced QB's we will be facing they will licking their chops.

[spanishomelette]

I'm hoping at least that the 'skins defense will practice against plays to the tight end after not doing it last year and repeatedly beat by it in games.

The defense organization has got to be better than last year. We will see what they can do with them, but I expect improvement with this line over last year.

[Skins26]

Oldskool,

I mentioned Udeze b/c he was a perfect example of a guy that was overrated before the draft due to the lack of other good DE's in the draft. I have not heard a single analyst call him the steal of the draft, I havent even heard an analyst mention him actually. Maybe out there on the west coast on local TV they are building him up though I dont know, but nobody over here has said a word about him.

The D Line in front of Taylor at Miami wasnt that great, they just had Wilfork, though he is a beast. They really didnt consistantly put pressure on any QB's. While we dont have guys capable of getting after the QB and with excellent pass rush skills, are guys can swallow up some blockers and occupy them just to free up the LB's and S's

And like jbooma pointed out, Gibbs doesnt draft D Linemen high very much. Which is a theory I agee with, there are way too many busts and they are way too hard to judge. Not to mention you can get a lot out of a D Linemen that may not have as much talent as another guy but if you coach him properly and get him to give 100% effort you can get a lot out of a less talented guy.

That is not the case at safety, if a guy doesnt have instincts he doesnt have them, if he doesnt have playmaking ability he doesnt have it, if he doesnt have speed, ball skills, hitting ability, etc..... you cant teach that kind of stuff.

But if you can teach a D Linemen good techinique and he is fat with a little bit of talent, he can go a long way if he gives maximum effort.

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by jbooma

Manning will be starting for the Giants because Collins is gone. Carson Palmer counts as a rooke since he has never played.

By the time we play the steelers expect to see Big Ben. We play Chicago and Grossman has only started what 2 games. Kyle Boller and his 6 or 7 starts we will see. I also think we might see a young QB when we play the 49ers.

With our secondary and all the young not experienced QB's we will be facing they will licking their chops.

Collins wont be cut. He'll play out his last year in NYG before Manning is thrown out into the fire.

You cant call Boller a rookie, thats like calling Ramsey a rookie.

Grossman slipped my mind, but 2 QB's on suckalicious teams doesnt mean anything in the grand scheme.

[Skins26]

Oldskool,

I just have one more question, I'd like to know, with all the joy most of us were feeling here when we heard Sean Taylor's name come out of the commish's mouth.

Did you really have as much hate for the pick as we had joy for it??

I just dont understand how you cant see what a selection this was.

But I wish you would stop knocking the pick and saying we arent going to compete now b/c of it. I understand you wanted Udeze, but did you really think we would take him?? With guys like Taylor/Winslow sitting here.

I thought we may take Wilfork, but he is a freak as well.

I never thought we'd take Udeze unless we had already taken either Taylor or Winslow.

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by Skins26

Oldskool,

I mentioned Udeze b/c he was a perfect example of a guy that was overrated before the draft due to the lack of other good DE's in the draft. I have not heard a single analyst call him the steal of the draft, I havent even heard an analyst mention him actually. Maybe out there on the west coast on local TV they are building him up though I dont know, but nobody over here has said a word about him.

Really? So sportsline.com and ESPN are west coast media now? I never knew Bristol moved from Conn. to Ca.! :doh:

The D Line in front of Taylor at Miami wasnt that great, they just had Wilfork, though he is a beast. They really didnt consistantly put pressure on any QB's. While we dont have guys capable of getting after the QB and with excellent pass rush skills, are guys can swallow up some blockers and occupy them just to free up the LB's and S's

Wilfork single handly made that D line a force by playing against the weaker talent over in college but this is the pro's not college. Our D lineman can stop the run but NO ONE on that line gets a double to allow the S and LB's to come straight in. Remember last year? That was the issue with our Lewis-esque system.

And like jbooma pointed out, Gibbs doesnt draft D Linemen high very much. Which is a theory I agee with, there are way too many busts and they are way too hard to judge. Not to mention you can get a lot out of a D Linemen that may not have as much talent as another guy but if you coach him properly and get him to give 100% effort you can get a lot out of a less talented guy.

That is not the case at safety, if a guy doesnt have instincts he doesnt have them, if he doesnt have playmaking ability he doesnt have it, if he doesnt have speed, ball skills, hitting ability, etc..... you cant teach that kind of stuff.

But if you can teach a D Linemen good techinique and he is fat with a little bit of talent, he can go a long way if he gives maximum effort.

Ive already responded back to Booma on the lineman but again you cant teach talent and our D lineman are very average. Once again if we had a solid D line I would care if we took Taylor but you dont have the talent up front and everything starts from the front to the back. Taylor will be average at best for the next few years until there is actually a D line in front of him worth their salt. He may get is picks and he may get 60+ tackles this year, but he wont be great.

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by Skins26

Oldskool,

I just have one more question, I'd like to know, with all the joy most of us were feeling here when we heard Sean Taylor's name come out of the commish's mouth.

Did you really have as much hate for the pick as we had joy for it??

I just dont understand how you cant see what a selection this was.

But I wish you would stop knocking the pick and saying we arent going to compete now b/c of it. I understand you wanted Udeze, but did you really think we would take him?? With guys like Taylor/Winslow sitting here.

I thought we may take Wilfork, but he is a freak as well.

I never thought we'd take Udeze unless we had already taken either Taylor or Winslow.

I didnt have hate for the pick. Hate is too great of a word.

My reaction was utter disapointment. Another year of sub-standard D line play.

I know you were all happy with Taylor and knowing that his potential was about to be tapped but its like being happy about getting a new muffler for you car when you really need to have your engine overhauled.

[Oldskool]

Originally posted by ArmchairRedskin

I object to you saying Gibbs doesn't expect to contend on principle alone. I'd say if you seriously think that, then you don't know coach Gibbs.

Thanks for your slam. I really like that from other skins fans...

I believe that I know Gibbs and I know his will and desire to win but Gibbs is a realist and a master planner, not a dreamer.

[roachman]

It's obvious that Gibbs and the coaching staff spent considerable time preparing for this draft. We can second guess the Taylor pick but everyone considers him one of the best playmakers in the draft. Guys like this don't come around every year. The preparation and having a plan is key to this subject. I'm confident that this coaching staff understands the strengths and weaknesses of this roster and you can't address all of them with four picks. The other factor we don't know is how much Greg Williams thinks his system will benefit our existing D-Lineman on the roster.

In reviewing the D-line prospects in this draft, not one of them would have made a major impact in 2004. Taylor will be a major impact this year and will allow us to switch Bowen to his natural position. Sure we could have picked up a D-lineman in the 5th or 6th round but it's all about taking the best available player at that point. The mention of Udeze being the steal of the draft is crazy. Many question marks including a shoulder problem.

Bottom line is that this coaching staff will get more production out of every player on the roster. Average players will elevate to above average players and our D-line will not be a strength but it will end up not being a weakness once the system is put in place.

[Renegade7]

:sucks: I'm going to post this smile on every single thread made primarily for whinning about what Gibbs has or hasn't done. If someone doesn't feel Gibbs is doing right, why don't you go ahead and tell him instead of wasting our time. Granted, everyone is entitled to their opinion. But if you opinion is that of souly being critical of this team, and nitpicking every single we do, then your opinion not only is not needed, it will be ignored. I can't believe I'm even reading this crap.