No1SkinzFan Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 I'm all for trading Roland for Portis, I am a little skeptical over giving the 2nd Rounder right now though. But you never know, that 2nd Rounder we would have chosen could have been a bust, or could have been a perrenial Pro-Bowler. When it's all said and done though, and Portis has proven all of the naysayers wrong, I think we will come out on top in this deal also. Everybody wants to make reference to Portis' nagging injuries, but honestly...what player doesn't have nagging injuries at least in the slightest bit? It is hard to stay 100% healthy in the NFL and not miss a game like Brett Favre and the reason Chump has never missed a game is because unlike Portis, he doesn't get freight trains running into him game after game. Also, unlike our next cornerback, (Antoine Winfield - hopefully), he is afraid to actually HIT someone. I'm all for the trade, if it doesn't work out in a few years then I might say it didn't work out and we shouldn't have done it, but I will remember the fact that I am all for it now. But, when Clinton Portis is a likely MVP canidate in the coming years, people won't be saying anything then. Everybody who was against it will be dawning the #26 jerseys and if we make the Super Bowl and win, tagging him as our savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No1SkinzFan Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 As far as people saying this deal will have a negative effect on the defense, the REAL offseason has not even begun yet. This is just the beginning of Gibbs fully redoing the roster to HIS liking. The defense will be reformed, rest assured. Gibbs never lets anything go untouched, and he definately knows the defense needs work, but first he needed some veterans on offense, because no matter what ANYONE says, we were and even with the addition of Brunell, are still a young offense. Have no fear, Gibbs will address the defense, and under himself along with Gregg Williams, do not be surprised if that defense finishes in the Top 15 next year, and even if we do finish 15th or 16th, that will be a GREAT improvement from last season. The main thing is Gibbs finding people who want to play, give him that and no matter the talent level, he can make them win football games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeSkin Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Portis is almost a sure thing, whereas a 2nd rounder is about 55/45 out of the league in a few years. We have a better chance of drafting a Ladell Betts in the 2nd than a Jon Jansen or a Fred Smoot. Everybody is acting like giving up a 2nd rounder means giving up an automatic Pro Bowler. We'll probably recoup that lost pick by trading down anyway. I think Gibbs and co. would be a lot more reluctant to give the pick to Denver if we weren't already intent on moving back, probably for Udeze or Harris. I'd rather overpay for a sure-fire 1500 yard back than balk at the trade and end up with a 2nd round bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da_Truth Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Its simple. Its not about Portis, its about the team. If the TEAM becomes a play-off contender and we draft Sean Taylor I would forget about the 2nd round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No1SkinzFan Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Nicely put Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No1SkinzFan Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 You're right Gibbz, it is about the TEAM, BUT portis has the ability to break a game open in one single play, possibly a few times a game, whereas Chump never did that, and whereas a 2nd rounder might not even play a snap during the season, or maybe 5 snaps like Taylor Jacobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codeorama Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 I'm with alot of the other guys that have a hard time putting a number on it. For one, I'm not against the trade as it stands, I think its a good trade if Portis continues to play and progress as he has in his first 2 seasons. It would become a "Bad trade" so to speak if Portis were to become injured or injury prone etc... or just become and average back. But that's all hindsight. If we make the trade, you have to live with it. I'm for it so I won't ***** and moan if the trade happens and it doesn't go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neophyte Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 First off, Portis is going to have to stay healthy. Second, he is going to have to show me he is an all around back. I know he can put up big numbers carrying the rock but Trung did that with the Rams when he had the chance. Can he pick up the blitz. Third, I am less concerned with his numbers than with the numbers in the W column of the schedule. If he is averaging 80 yards a game and 4.0 yards per touch but we are winning, I don't care. Fourth, if the guy Denver takes with that 2nd round choice turns into a Hall of Famer to go with the potential Hall of Famer we are trading them in the form of one Mr Champ Bailey, I am not sure this trade will ever be good. For it to be good, Portis would almost have to lead us to several Super Bowls, finish his career here and be one of the top 3 all time rushers in the NFL. Maybe I am being to tough, I don't know. Of course, having said that, I also believe that even though is not a good trade for us, it maybe the best we can do right. If that is the case and it is the best we can do, it is a good trade because it is better than loosing Champ to FA without compensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted February 26, 2004 Author Share Posted February 26, 2004 Kevin, While I appreciate your sentiment, I think it's just horribly misapplied. You measure a trade or a move based on the value it presents at the time you make it. The day after you make the trade the player could die and it didn't become a horrible trade. That you can't predict the future is why you measure events as they happen, rather than as they go forward. Obviously if Portis is a consistent 1,700-yard back with 15 TDs a year, we're going to think we got the steal of the world. If Champ never plays a down for Denver, did the deal suddenly become great for us? Of course not. The future simply reinforces the negative or positive. It doesn't erase a bad move because it worked out anymore than it makes a good move bad because circumstance works against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
citigent Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 redskins i the playoffs, then champ who, 2nd round pick what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyJ Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Just to amplify Art's point to Kevin, if I take a hit at 19 when the dealer is showing a 6 with a $1K bet, yet still somehow win the hand, it doesn't mean I made a good decision. Just means I'm one lucky SOB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Matt Kyriacou Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Just exactly who is this "Chump" guy that I keep reading about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidPennSkin Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Whether it's a good trade or a bad trade at the time you make it depends on what probability you assign to the various possible outcomes, and how accurate your estimation of the probabilities is. It's a gamble, just like when you bet on a poker hand. You don't know whether your hand will win or not, but you have to bet it based on your assessmen of the odds. A good gambler can play a hand perfectly and still lose if he doesn't have the cards, but in the long run he will come out a winner, because the cards will even out. I agree that the Bailey/Portis deal would not turn into a bad trade if Portis gets run over by a truck tomorrow, because that can't be predicted. It could just as easily happen to Bailey. On the other hand, if we know that Portis is clearly injury prone, and he gets injured next year and never plays well again, then we should have taken that into account and not done the trade. Same as if we know that a player hangs out with drug dealers(ala Jamal), that is a risk that can be evaluated before the trade is done. The way I see it, Gibbs and the Redskins are making a high-stakes gamble. If Portis plays up to his potential as a gamebreaker and doesn't get injured, he is much more valuable than Bailey, and it is a BIG win for us. If Portis is always getting injured and never does much again, we lose BIG. There is a lot of risk in the deal for us, could be a big win or a big loss. Gibbs is betting that the upside outweighs the downside. Denver, on the other hand, is not taking nearly as much risk as we are. Bailey has never missed a game. With him, you know what you will get. Not as much upside as with Portis, but not as much chance of downside either. What I am saying is, Gibbs & Snyder have decided that the risk of downside is worth the gamble, because the upside is so big. So, my estimate of the Portis odds for next year is as follows: 20% chance he gets injured next year and doesn't duplicate his past performance. 50% chance he continues to be the gamebreaker he was at Denver 30% chance he is a better than average RB, but not a gamebreaker I estimate the Bailey odds as follows: 5% chance of injury next year. 70% chance of playing like last year, good but not a shutdown CB 25% chance of being a true shutdown corner. Now, is giving up the pick worth it? Again, you can't know for sure, but the probablilty that the #41 pick will turn out to be a pro bowl player is about 18%, based on the past 10 years of draft data. This is an oversimplification because you obviously have to consider more than just one year, but that gets to be an unwieldy matrix for a posting on this board. Looking at those odds, I'd go for Portis and give the pick, because we get to the playoffs and maybe the superbowl if he continues to be a gamebreaker. My thesis here is, whether or not this is a good trade for the Skins will never be known for sure. You can't logically ask how good will Portis have to be to make it a good trade, because luck plays such a big part in it. You make your own estimate of the probabilities and go with it. Gibbs & Snyder clearly think it's a good deal, and they have more knowledge of this than any of us, so I'm not going to claim to know more than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljer Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Portis can run for 2,000 yards.....but if I have to watch ANOTHER bad defense...well, then...I hate it. I know, I know....it's only February...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yank Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 The first few picks in the draft is a crapshoot for crying out loud - Ryan Leaf, Desmond Howard, Heath Shuler, Aundray Bruce et. al. The top of the second you can get a nice player but a 1 in 8 chance they hardly see the field. See here: http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=572258#post572258 Portis is Gayle Sayers reincarnated - with even a little more oomph. We traded an overrated corner and a potential Ladell Betts/Greg Jones/Reggie Brooks/Shane Collins/Brian Davis/Wally Klein/Marcus Koch/Walter Murray/Tory Nixon/Bob Slater/Steve Hamilton/Richard Williams, all Redskins second rounders in the last 20 years, for a Gayle Sayers. If he plays 15 or 16 games he could get near 2K yards. Ummmm, lemme think .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Slammer Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 He's already worth it, in my estimation. Should the trade go through, the Redskins running game is automatically a threat. Teams will no longer just be able to tee off on the pass as we saw all of last year. We won't see any more repeats of that first Dallas game with Portis in the backfield and Gibbs calling the plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reaganaut Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Two shmoo. This team only cares about free agents and proven commodities. It's just as risky to pick up a #2 than a free agent such as Darrell Gardener or Chad Morton. We ended up with a Fred Smoot and a Ladell Betts. Champ was gone anyway so would Portis be worth a second round pick in the absense of Bailey? Definitely yes and Bailey is the premium to get him while he is only two years into his contract. We will pick up another good DB in free agency and Smoot can hold his own on the other side. Add Taylor, Kearse and Fat Teddy and we have a better team than with Champ given the cap room he clears for us. Hard to say how it turns out, but Portis Brunell and Coles with the talent we have on the line should put us into the running in the East with Saint Joe as coach and Williams as assistant. Should be a playoff year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Diesel Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 I don't give a sh*t about the pick. Period. If you can get a back like this, at 22 years of age, I couldn't care less about a 2nd round draft pick involved. So based on your criteria, he doesn't have to do jack to satisfy me. I'm whistling dixie out my a$$hole over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yank Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Where is this injury-prone thing? He played all 16 his rookie year. He got a pop under his pads last year and missed two halves and another game - two games. Tried to play the first half of two games - shows me grit - but sat out the second halves. Finally missed the next. Played the next 11 games or so. He nicked a knee and ankle and missed another. The third game he missed sat out because the Broncos were in the playoffs and they sat out a ton of starters. Played the playoff game. Steven Davis missed 5 whole games the last 3 years he was here. Portis missed two in two years. Give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BD Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 I think that getting to the playoffs would make it worth it. Portis himself can be the same that he has been - say 1500 yds rushing, 15 total TDs, something like that - but a playoff appearance would make that 2nd rounder fade into nothingness. Also, considering the value of our #5 pick, and the fact that Gibbs is now looking to trade down, we could easily end up with the Pats two number ones, and trade down again to the 2nd and 3rd round... You get what I mean. A pick is always a gamble, but Portis is far more of a sure thing. BD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yank Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Skins have struck out on 12 second rounders over the past 20 years. I don't like my chances so I'll just take the next great back in the NFL and walk away with my windfall ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Whether we strike out or not with 2nd round picks is irrelevant. A 2nd round pick is a high value pick. It's a slap in the face that Denver is saying their player is so much better that they have to have a 2nd round pick included. Bailey is a five time Pro Bowler. Portis has been to two. I consider it an insult and a "in-your-face-let's-see-if-we-can-screw-you" petty move by Denver. No wonder Gardner called Shanahan "that little man up there". He's an arrogant little pissant that has done NOTHING without Elway. If the system is so great then why can't just "any" QB run it? I'm still steamed but once once I see Portis break one for a long TD run then I'll start to get over it. I just hate being taken for a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSF Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 If Portis can continue to put up numbers anywhere close to last years we made a steal IMO. At first I thought the #2 was too much with Bailey, but after learning more about Portis and having some time to digest all of the info, I think this is another great move. Bailey wanting out plus the many cb's on the market this year added up to we weren't going to get near as much as we had hoped for Champ. A week ago Bailey straight up for the Lion's #6 was starting to sound pretty good. Instead we wind up with one of the top backs in the league who's a home run threat on every play. What's really exciting about this to me is that for the first time in several years, opposing defenses will have to respect the run and pass. OMG...a balanced attack! Who would a thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hauss Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 Portis needs to be a Super Bowl MVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a_good_brotha Posted February 26, 2004 Share Posted February 26, 2004 I like the trade idea. I could care less about Portis's numbers. If we win it all with Portis, no matter his stats, and Bailey struggles to cover a 40+ year old Jerry Rice, it's a good trade. Bailey is not worth the money he is asking for based on the current salary cap situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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