illone Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/story/_/id/17521636/nfl-vegas-handicappers-break-how-bet-pittsburgh-steelers-washington-redskins If anyone has access, please copy paste. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 I don't have access, but I did see the line dropped by 1.5 points in some places this morning-- that only means one thing-- sharp money going on Skins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 12, 2016 Author Share Posted September 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, kleese said: I don't have access, but I did see the line dropped by 1.5 points in some places this morning-- that only means one thing-- sharp money going on Skins. Yep, sure does. Sometimes you have to be wary of that because some sharps will pound the line one way to bring it down and achieve a desireable line, and then slam it the other way. I've seen some real funky line moves in the past, but this one appears to be moving with the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulSkin Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Spread: opened Pittsburgh -2.5; now Pittsburgh -3 (EVEN)Total: opened 51; now 50PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Pittsburgh Public perception: The public loves to bet high-scoring teams, andBen Roethlisberger leads one of the best offenses in the league, so it's no surprise the public is backing the favored Steelers in the Monday night opener. Wiseguys' view: This line opened Pittsburgh -2.5, and early bettors grabbed the cheap price and bet it to 3. Early in the preseason, the line was at -3 (-120) and it appeared it was going higher, but wiseguy sentiment has flipped to the Redskins, who won their last four regular-season games last season to take the NFC East crown and play much better at home (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in 2015). The added vig is now on Washington at +3 (-120), and we could see the line dip to 2.5. Dave Tuley's take: Even though the Redskins added CB Josh Norman, the Steelers have enough weapons that I believe they should get the win/cover. The Steelers are 6 points better than the Redskins in the NFL Vegas Rankings that we do at ESPN Chalk. With Washington's home-field advantage, we agree that the line is right at 3 and it makes sense if it's shaded to -3 (-120). At -3 (EVEN), there's a little value on Pittsburgh, though I'd pay the extra vig at -2.5 (-120). The pick: Steelers -3 (EVEN). Erin Rynning: Big things are expected from the Steelers this season after their impressive 10-6 campaign in 2015, while the rest of the AFC is stuck in neutral at best. However, they'll be short-handed on the offensive side of the ball, missing Le'Veon Bell and other receivers. Of course, this will present a fascinating matchup with the offensive load falling on the outstanding Antonio Brown's shoulders. After winning the watered-down NFC East in 2015, there's still not a lot of faith in the Redskins, but I like them. In the end, my numbers are almost perfectly in line with this side and total, so I'll pass on the Monday night opener. Pick: pass Prop bets 308.5 passing yards by Ben Roethlisberger (O/U -110) Steelers fans know this situation all too well, as Bell has missed time before. Bell was suspended for the first two games last season and missed the last eight games with a knee injury. During that time, Roethlisberger dropped back even more than usual -- over two-thirds of his snaps were dropbacks (67 percent) in the 10 games without Bell. Surprisingly, Roethlisberger's 8.2 yards per dropback average without Bell was three-quarters of a yard better than with him. That includes 9.2 and 13.7 efforts in Weeks 1 and 2 without Martavis Bryant as well. The Redskins' defense was on the field for 63.1 plays per game last year, and 67 percent of that would give Roethlisberger 42 dropbacks in the game. A 42-dropback game at 8.2 yards per dropback puts Roethlisberger at 344 yards. A cornerback upgrade can be considered with Norman's addition, but Washington didn't do too much to improve a pass rush that pressured opposing quarterbacks on the fifth-lowest percentage of dropbacks in the league last year. Bet on Big Ben. The play: over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 12, 2016 Author Share Posted September 12, 2016 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins4eva Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Very interesting. This game is basically a pick em at this point. Could easily go either way--we all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 I think people outsmart themselves when watching a line move. Pats moved from +6 to +9 last night. That bet was a gift. With that said, I'm not touching tonight's game. Too many unknowns. If I had to, I'd take the Steelers based on the fact that we have not yet learned how to beat good teams. I'm hoping that changes tonight. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 12, 2016 Author Share Posted September 12, 2016 Wiseguys bet wrong, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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