A Big Reason We're 1-3? Alfred Morris Isn't Getting The Ball

[CommanderDOOM]

We need fresh legs.......Redd.

[Voice_of_Reason]

If you consider 1-2 yard GAINS as negative then we really have nothing to discuss.

You talk about being behind the sticks on 2nd down BUT ~40% of our pass plays result in an incompletion. Last time I checked 2nd & 10 with NO time of possension is a worse (less efficient) outcome then 2nd & 8-9 with ~30s of time of possension that sets-up playaction.

Yes, any run that's less than three yards is a failed play. And we can get into the math of it, but the average completion of a pass is longer than that of a run, and with a 65% completion rate, which is what the 'Skins are averaging over the first 7 games, you're in a better situation more often with a pass, which gains more yards, than a run.

 

0-2 yard runs don't do anything to set up play action.  If you're consistently getting 0-2 yards, then play action is meaningless.  The LB and Safeties just ignore the fake.  The only thing that sets up the PA is successful running. 

The purpose of the run is to eliminate the 0 yard play, be conservative, and gain at least 4 yards. If you're not able to do that, then you've removed the reward from running vs. passing. Because, statistically, the chances of breaking off 10-15 yard run are less than completing a 10-15 yard pass.  

It's fine if you get a 0-2 yard run here or there, but it's happening constantly. And average is not actually a really good statistic when it comes to evaluating the consistency. It's more the "mode." Which is the number that appears most frequently in the set. And the most frequent numbers I see are 0,1,2. That's bad.

 

We are not a run first team; and with Jay at the helm probably won't be.

But our current 2-5 record is the result of inefficient pass first offense and you want more of the same?

The problem is that we are a pass first team that's trying to be a run-first team, and doesn't know how to do it. We're trying to do some of the same things we used to do with some different personnel, and not realizing that it's not going to work.  Running on 75% of the 1st downs, and doing it absolutely horribly, in the Tenn game shows that they are trying to run first. 

 

I just think it's stupid to keep banging your head against a wall with something that hasn't worked in weeks.  

 

The change up is to embrace being a pass-first team, and go after it.  

 

It's almost like the team is embarrassed to say it is a pass-first team.  

 

And I also disagree that the reason we're 2-5 is because of an ineffective passing game.  Because the yards are there. The problem is turnovers (and meltdowns) by a backup QB.  And then trying to protect that QB by doing something the team isn't good at anymore, which leads to ineptitude.

 

Passing numbers by game:

Houston: 267

Jax: Griffin 38 + Cousins 250 = 288

Eagles: 427

Giants: 257

Cards: 354

Tenn: Cousins 139 + McCoy 128 = 276

 

Given that we're talking about backup QB and third string QB, that's not terrible.

 

If they can cut down on the INTs, then the passing attack would actually be really good. 

 

I'm all for spreading it out. By all means spread the defense out and get Morris going downhill vs a 6-7 man box ala the Iggles.

But make no mistake Jay is not getting the most out of this running game and if he's smart, he'll adapt.

 

The solution is not to continue to try and force something that isn't working.  It's to adapt and try something that is working.  And at the moment, the passing game is way more efficient than the running game.  So, lean on that.

 

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Now, all of this changes when Griffin comes back.  When Griffin comes back, I think that they're able to spread them out, use some R/O looks, and actually crank the running game back up, and be balanced.  Maybe even run-first.  Because his athletic ability, if healthy, helps open up the run game, because the defense has to account for him as as well.  

 

And THAT would be the change that the run-game needs in order to be succesful.  I just don't think that with this group of players, it can really explode as long as Kirk and McCoy are playing QB. 

I don't know if there are any stats on that but my feeling is thats just a perception and Morris has no more of an issue with this than any other feature back. With the contact they get the ball is going to hit the ground from time to time.

The last 2 years, he's put the ball on the turf more than he should.  

 

Love, love love the guy.  But that's just fact.  

Morris has had 2 fumbles on 115 attempts this season so far - which is right on his career average. As a comparison Murray of the Cowboys has 3 fumbles on 187 attempts. I don't think Morris is any more of a risk to fumble than any of the other top backs who are getting the majority of the workload.

I think there are 2 or 3 more where the ball has hit the turf and we've recovered.  

[darrelgreenie]

VOR-aka Mike Martz aka Steve Spurier

You win by sheer volume and tenacity.

But I think it is stupid to give up on running.

I think that is a defeatist mentality.

[RED06]

I don't know if there are any stats on that but my feeling is thats just a perception and Morris has no more of an issue with this than any other feature back. With the contact they get the ball is going to hit the ground from time to time.

I sure hope not man. He seems to be struggling a little this year and I can understand why. I hope he can get back to form because I like Alf a lot. Great guy too.

[darrelgreenie]

Yes, any run that's less than three yards is a failed play. And we can get into the math of it, but the average completion of a pass is longer than that of a run, and with a 65% completion rate, which is what the 'Skins are averaging over the first 7 games, you're in a better situation more often with a pass, which gains more yards, than a run.

You are moving the goal posts. You said running puts them behind the sticks on 2nd downs. But the truth is that incomplete passes (or sacks or ints) put them behind the sticks more often then a run.

 

0-2 yard runs don't do anything to set up play action.  If you're consistently getting 0-2 yards, then play action is meaningless.  The LB and Safeties just ignore the fake.  The only thing that sets up the PA is successful running.

Patently incorrect. When a defense is having success against the run they are certainly influenced by run action.

 

The purpose of the run is to eliminate the 0 yard play, be conservative, and gain at least 4 yards. If you're not able to do that, then you've removed the reward from running vs. passing. Because, statistically, the chances of breaking off 10-15 yard run are less than completing a 10-15 yard pass.

No that is not the purpose of the run. And a reward for running is also time of possension which keeps the opposing offense off the field. Offense isn't just about hitting 10-15 yard plays. Its also about efficiency.

 

It's fine if you get a 0-2 yard run here or there, but it's happening constantly. And average is not actually a really good statistic when it comes to evaluating the consistency. It's more the "mode." Which is the number that appears most frequently in the set. And the most frequent numbers I see are 0,1,2. That's bad.

 

You know I agree that they aren't running the ball well enough but the answer isn't to quit.

 

The problem is that we are a pass first team that's trying to be a run-first team, and doesn't know how to do it. We're trying to do some of the same things we used to do with some different personnel, and not realizing that it's not going to work.  Running on 75% of the 1st downs, and doing it absolutely horribly, in the Tenn game shows that they are trying to run first. 

I don't know what you are watching if you look at ours games and see an effort being made to be run first team, Titans WIN excluded.

 

The change up is to embrace being a pass-first team, and go after it.

 That would be the status quo which has led to 2-5 record, 3rd down failure, turnovers and empty yards but sure by all means pass more.

 

 

And I also disagree that the reason we're 2-5 is because of an ineffective passing game.  Because the yards are there. The problem is turnovers (and meltdowns) by a backup QB.  And then trying to protect that QB by doing something the team isn't good at anymore, which leads to ineptitude.

The QB is the key part of the passing game if they are turning the ball over and sucking eggs on 3rd down and not scoring points and losing time of possension then YES the passing game plays a huge role in the 2-5 record.

 

 

If they can cut down on the INTs, then the passing attack would actually be really good. 

And if I was Romain Dauriac I would be nailing Scarlett Johansson.

 

 

The solution is not to continue to try and force something that isn't working.  It's to adapt and try something that is working.  And at the moment, the passing game is way more efficient than the running game.  So, lean on that.

Eh? Passing game more efficient? The answer is to run the ball better! Not to quit trying.

 

Now, all of this changes when Griffin comes back.  When Griffin comes back, I think that they're able to spread them out, use some R/O looks, and actually crank the running game back up, and be balanced.  Maybe even run-first.  Because his athletic ability, if healthy, helps open up the run game, because the defense has to account for him as as well.

Already addressed this misconception. We don't need Robert to run the ball better.

Teams have been running the ball just fine without QBs like Robert forever.

 

http://es.redskins.com/topic/382841-a-big-reason-were-1-3-alfred-morris-isnt-getting-the-ball/?p=9985213

[darrelgreenie]

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I'm always in favor of winning. I don't care about style. If Jay was winning games by passes the ball all over the yard you wouldn't hear any complaints from me.

But he's not.

 

They are not running the ball as well as they can/should.

Jay needs to get the running game playing better.

When the running game or any aspect of the team isn't playing up to their standard its the coaches job to fix it not to quit.

[darrelgreenie]

http://es.redskins.com/topic/383962-tandlers-need-to-know-redskins-among-nfl%E2%80%99s-more-pass-happy-teams/

 

--Using the Game Script, he Football Perspective guys figure out how often a team should be expected to pass the ball given the score differential and comparing it to how much other teams pass in the same situation. I looked at this concept here earlier this month. The Redskins continue to be on the pass-happy side. They pass on 62.5 percent of their snaps compared to an expectation of 59.8 percent. That differential of 2.7 percent is the 11^th-highest in the NFL.

 

—It should be noted that of the 10 teams that are more pass happy than the Redskins, all but two, the Raiders and Jaguars, have stable, established players at QB. It’s one thing passing a lot with Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady; it’s quite another doing so with Kirk Cousins.

[Larry]

Just commenting. I think the TV put up a stat, late in the game. I think that, ad the end of the game, the Skins' play selection on first down was like

Run: 20

Pass: 3

Opinions?

(I also think they made a claim that sure made me do a double take. They said that, on first down, the Redskins have gained more yards than any other team in the NFL, this year. Sure hasn't felt that way, to me.)

[TradeTheBeal!]

I have taken a lotta shots at AlMo the last few weeks.  Some deserved and some not but...

 

He played a heck of a game tonight.  Ran smart and hard, picked up blitzes and even caught a screen.  He stepped up and thumped the Cowboys under the bright lights…again.  What more could you want?

[SweetAlfred]

TV stat showed him 8 carries for 80 yards then somehow it went down to 12 carries 50 yards... but whatever he still ends up with 73 for 6th place in rushing yards right now. DeMarco Murray is a beast, gets 144(?) yards..geez

[TheItalianStallion]

TV stat showed him 8 carries for 80 yards then somehow it went down to 12 carries 50 yards... but whatever he still ends up with 73 for 6th place in rushing yards right now. DeMarco Murray is a beast, gets 144(?) yards..geez

And that's without any 100-yard games to this point. With RG coming back, he'll probably have some in the 2nd half of the season.

[SweetAlfred]

And that's without any 100-yard games to this point. With RG coming back, he'll probably have some in the 2nd half of the season.

 

Right now he's at 513, through 8 weeks - so second half I'd be happy if he was a 1,000 yard back. Should be easier like you said with Rob back.

[Voice_of_Reason]

So, now that the dust has settled, let's take a look at the running game:

 

Total yards: 123

Morris: 18/73/4.1

Helu: 5/29/5.8

 

1st downs: (in yards)

1st half:

1st drive: 3, -1

2nd drive: 1,

3rd drive: -1 (R/O play, McCoy kept it.)

4th drive: 3,5,

5th: 5, 10, -1

 

2nd Half:

1st drive: 7 (McCoy Scramble), 5, 10, 18, 5, 5 (Morris TD) ** This was by far the best drive running the entire game.

2nd drive: -6 

3rd drive: 1, 4, 1, 

4th drive: 4, 2 (McCoy scramble), 1. (last drive of the first half.)

 

OT:

1st drive: 8, 2.  

 

I didn't go through and count the final tally, but at one point, they put up a stat that the 'Skins ran on 22 of 24 1st downs.  This was in the 4th quarter some time.

 

 

This week was better than last week, for sure.  but still, of the 23 1st down runs, 8 of them were 2 yards or less.  Compared to last week, that's a significant improvement.  But still 1/3 of your 1st down runs are resulting in getting behind the sticks.  

 

FWIW, a stuffed run on 1st down led to almost every stalled drive:

1st drive: -1 on 1st down, 3 plays later, Punt.

2nd drive: 1 on 1st down, 3 plays later, Punt

3rd drive: -2 on 1st down, 2nd down was the INT. 

4th drive: (This is an exception) 5 on 1st down, then a penalty, sack, punt.

5th drive: -1 on 1st down, 3 plays later, Punt

 

2nd half: 

1st drive: NO RUNS for less than 5 yards on 1st down, TD drive.

2nd drive: -6 on 1st down, 3 plays later, Punt

3rd drive: 1 yard on 1st down, McCoy takes it in from 7 out on the QB draw

4th drive: 1 yard, 3 plays later, punt.  

 

OT: 

1st drive: 2 yards on 1st down, FG 3 plays later.  Drive stalls at Dal 22.

 

So, what's my overall point?

 

Running game was better, and unlike in Tenn, the 'Skins did not win in spite of the running game. The running game helped get the win.  But it was not the reason for the win.  

 

But they constantly get behind the sticks, and still only managed 20 points, and needed OT to get there. Because they're trying to be run-first.  

 

And the backup QB angle doesn't work for me.  He threw for 299 yards, and completed 80% of his passes.

 

I think that they have to get away from running on 80% of their first downs, especially if they keep on getting runs stuffed.  Because they're not really great at 2nd and 8+, often leads to the end of a drive. In order to negate this, and score more points, they need to mix it up more on 1st down, OR get less wasted plays on 1st down out of the running game.  Either would work.  And while I see an upward trend, I still don't think that this is a good running team. 

 

I still think that there are WAY too many failed plays in the running game, and it leads to stalled drives. The other thing to note is that in a lot of situations, they have scrapped the Pistol, and are going traditional pro-set and running behind DY as the FB.

 

So I'll keep agitating for what I've been agitating for all along: If something isn't working, and even though they won last night, what they are doing is NOT working, change it.  Do something else.  ADJUST.  Don't run on 90% of your first downs.  Throw on some, run on second down.  They're getting a lot of practice in being in 2nd and 10 anyway, so take the chance that you'll get to a second and short at least as often as you will 2nd and 10.  

 

 

[darrelgreenie]

I feel like now you are just sticking your head in the sand.

[Destino]

I watched the game last night and thinking "I wonder how many yards Alfred would have running behind the Cowboys line?" 

[darrelgreenie]

They are running the same scheme but with different gameplanning and playcalling the outcomes are different.

For example Jay doesn't call nearly as many outside zone runs as the previous regime, Jay almost never calls the toss/pitch, Jay almost never calls back to back runs etc....

Same scheme different gameplanner/playcaller....

....You have to commit to the running game and the Titans game showed that Jay is starting to try.

Complementary football folks its not lip service its a way of life.

Dallas game shows to me that Jay is making an effort he might be getting it.

There was more outside zone, there was more toss/pitch.

And oh btw we won time of possession.

Now if we can just work on the back to back run calls.

[4skins23]

I think Morris should be getting the ball a lot more. You can't put all the blame on a bad o-line. There are some teams that have done well regardless of their lines. The Raiders with McFadden, The Browns with T. Richardson, etc.... I don't consider them to have great lines, but I am sure some will argue. 

[darrelgreenie]

I guess you guys are happy with the number of runs?