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Grantland.com: NFL Trade Value (Skins mentions)


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http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9492942/bill-barnwell-ranks-top-assets-nfl

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9498600/bill-barnwell-ranks-top-assets-nfl

 

 

new asset class was delivered to the NFL in 2012, as a crop of young, cheap, and extremely talented quarterbacks emerged to be the most valuable set of rookies in league history. With the new NFL CBA inducting rookies into the league at a fraction of their former price, teams like the Colts and Seahawks were not only able to get Pro Bowl production under center at a fraction of the market rate, they were able to use the millions of dollars they saved to go splurge on veteran talent during free agency.

 

And ever since the Gang of Four began to emerge, I've had people hounding me with one question: Where are they going to fall on the Trade Value Chart? Hell, I've been wondering about it myself for the better part of nine months now. Could it take as few as seven regular-season starts for a player like Colin Kaepernick to become the most valuable commodity in all of football?

 

 

Skins mentions:

 

Group III: The Able Veterans

 

47. Brian Orakpo, LB, Washington
 

Missed nearly the entire season after tearing his pectoral muscle in Week 2. Beginning to wonder whether there's going to be any more production out of Orakpo than what we've seen so far; he looked like a stud pass rusher when he racked up 11 sacks during his rookie campaign, but he has now amassed a total of just 18.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons. This is the last year of his rookie deal, so if you believe in contract years, Orakpo should be about ready to have one.

 

 

Group IV: The Promise of Stardom

 

35. Trent Williams, LT, Washington


Pick one. Clady's been the better player at each of their respective peaks, but he just got a brand-new contract that pays him something close to full market value, is two years older, and is one of the many NFL players to suffer a serious injury playing basketball, having torn his patellar tendon before the 2010 campaign. He didn't return to his previous level of form until Peyton Manning showed up, and it was fair of Grantland colleague Robert Mays to wonder whether Clady's resurgence had something to do with the quick release and flawless footwork of Manning. Williams isn't as refined of a pass blocker, but he excelled as a downfield run- and screen-blocker last year in a Washington offense that requires a ton of energy. I'd want him over the next five years as opposed to Clady.

 

 

 

Group XV: The Second Tier of Quarterbacks

 

5. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington

RG3 was the best young quarterback in football a year ago. His level of play was unprecedented for rookies, and he outplayed everybody else in and around the Gang of Four. If I could guarantee that he would play 16 games without getting injured, I'd put Robert Griffin at the top of this list.


I can't guarantee that, though, and I see a guy who gets into dangerous situations where injuries are a continual possibility. I can almost forgive him for slipping and sustaining a concussion near the sidelines against the Falcons, but a few weeks later, he was diving headfirst in the middle of the field at the end of a comfortable loss to the Panthers. More people who had tickets to that game heard about that on the radio trying to leave the parking lot than did actually sitting in their seats inside the stadium. He would eventually suffer a knee injury against the Ravens, make it worse by trying to play on it, and reaggravate the injury in the playoffs against the Seahawks. I really hope Robert Griffin proves me wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith in his knee or his team's ability to keep his competitiveness in line, and for players who are this valuable, a ding like that is enough to move a guy down a tier.

 

Luck, Wilson and Rodgers were ranked #3, #2 and #1 (respectively).

 

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This is why I love Grantland, they have no bias and tell it like it is. Very good article/rankings.

 

Well, they kinda messed up when talking about Orakpo.

 

They said this about him: "he looked like a stud pass rusher when he racked up 11 sacks during his rookie campaign, but he has now amassed a total of just 18.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons"...but they already acknowledged that he was pretty much out the entire season last year.

 

They should instead look at number of games, not number of seasons:

 

11 sacks in 16 games: 1 sack every 1.45 games

18.5 sacks in 32* games: 1 sack every 1.73 games

 

(*only played half a game against both the Eagles and the Rams before being injured)

 

The difference isn't that much, and might be even less if it were broken down into sacks per pass rush (not gonna even spend time looking for those sacks lol). If he was a "stud" at 1 sack every 1.5 games, then he shouldn't be seen as a "dud" when he's getting 1 sack every 1.75 games.

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I'm sorry but Wilson ranked #2?!?!?!  I don't hate the guy, but he's quickly becoming the most overrated player in football.

He's not that good, everybody is just in love with his "5'10 3rd round pick turns in to a starter on a  team with an ELITE roster" story. Our average defense had him so confused, heck he didn't have a 300 yard game until the Atlanta playoff game. When we played the seahawks we just kept him in the pocket and made sure he wouldn't scramble too much and he struggled. Once defenses adopt that strategy he'll go back to being only a "solid but not great" player. 

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I'm sorry but Wilson ranked #2?!?!?!  I don't hate the guy, but he's quickly becoming the most overrated player in football.

I don't think they are saying he is the 2nd best player in the league. It's more about his trade value. He is a good player, in his second season, that is playing on a 3rd round contract.

 

This is why I love Grantland, they have no bias and tell it like it is. Very good article/rankings.

 

Well, they kinda messed up when talking about Orakpo.

 

They said this about him: "he looked like a stud pass rusher when he racked up 11 sacks during his rookie campaign, but he has now amassed a total of just 18.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons"...but they already acknowledged that he was pretty much out the entire season last year.

 

They should instead look at number of games, not number of seasons:

 

11 sacks in 16 games: 1 sack every 1.45 games

18.5 sacks in 32* games: 1 sack every 1.73 games

 

(*only played half a game against both the Eagles and the Rams before being injured)

 

The difference isn't that much, and might be even less if it were broken down into sacks per pass rush (not gonna even spend time looking for those sacks lol). If he was a "stud" at 1 sack every 1.5 games, then he shouldn't be seen as a "dud" when he's getting 1 sack every 1.75 games.

Yeah, they could have done better with Orakpo, but I am just saying that they always seem to be pretty objective on every article.

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It does feel nice to have 3 of our past 4 first rounders on this list.  Each team is only going to have between 1-2 guys on here, yet we've got 3.  And they're all young.

Also part of the column (Bill Simmons notes talking about Alfred Morris): "Hold on, there are really 50 players I'd rather have than a top-five running back who's 23 years old and makes only $500,000 a year in a league that has a salary cap? I can't wait to read the rest of this column! Barnwell will rue the day that Alfred Morris wasn't included on this list. (Thinking.) Damn, I probably should have written something different there."

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I'm sorry but Wilson ranked #2?!?!?!  I don't hate the guy, but he's quickly becoming the most overrated player in football.

He's not that good, everybody is just in love with his "5'10 3rd round pick turns in to a starter on a  team with an ELITE roster" story. Our average defense had him so confused, heck he didn't have a 300 yard game until the Atlanta playoff game. When we played the seahawks we just kept him in the pocket and made sure he wouldn't scramble too much and he struggled. Once defenses adopt that strategy he'll go back to being only a "solid but not great" player. 

In the playoff game against Atlanta, he was pretty damn good.  I don't think he is on Rg3's level, but for a third round draft pick, the guy is a stud.

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I'm sorry but Wilson ranked #2?!?!?!  I don't hate the guy, but he's quickly becoming the most overrated player in football.

I don't think they are saying he is the 2nd best player in the league. It's more about his trade value. He is a good player, in his second season, that is playing on a 3rd round contract.

 

This is why I love Grantland, they have no bias and tell it like it is. Very good article/rankings.

 

Well, they kinda messed up when talking about Orakpo.

 

They said this about him: "he looked like a stud pass rusher when he racked up 11 sacks during his rookie campaign, but he has now amassed a total of just 18.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons"...but they already acknowledged that he was pretty much out the entire season last year.

 

They should instead look at number of games, not number of seasons:

 

11 sacks in 16 games: 1 sack every 1.45 games

18.5 sacks in 32* games: 1 sack every 1.73 games

 

(*only played half a game against both the Eagles and the Rams before being injured)

 

The difference isn't that much, and might be even less if it were broken down into sacks per pass rush (not gonna even spend time looking for those sacks lol). If he was a "stud" at 1 sack every 1.5 games, then he shouldn't be seen as a "dud" when he's getting 1 sack every 1.75 games.

Yeah, they could have done better with Orakpo, but I am just saying that they always seem to be pretty objective on every article.

 

 

Yea, I hear you.  I understand it's based on trade value which accounts for his small contract and all, but still, I don't see it.  If he were drafted to one of the majority of the other teams, I really think he would've just looked like another rookie out there like Tannehill (sp?) or Weeden.  There's nothing wrong with those guys for first year players, but they certainly wouldn't be considered these highly elite trade baits in my opinion.

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Also part of the column (Bill Simmons notes talking about Alfred Morris): "Hold on, there are really 50 players I'd rather have than a top-five running back who's 23 years old and makes only $500,000 a year in a league that has a salary cap? I can't wait to read the rest of this column! Barnwell will rue the day that Alfred Morris wasn't included on this list. (Thinking.) Damn, I probably should have written something different there."

 

Morris got a second mention in those "footnotes". As a footnote to Orakpo's entry:

 

My Passive-Aggressive Dick In The Footnotes manual implores me to point this out: Alfred Morris will earn $1.82 million total through 2015, whereas Orakpo will make $4.4 million this season, then could triple that number next year if he crushes this contract year. Let's say he re-signs with the Skins for $10 million a year to be safe. Would you rather pay Morris $1.82 million for this year and the next two, or 15 times as much for Orakpo? Give me Morris, please.
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