Realistically, how is Mike doing on building the roster?

[Oldfan]

In November, 2010, a member contacted me by PM and asked for my thoughts on how I'd go about building our roster. I started a five-page thread in response entitled "Planning for a Redskins Dynasty." I have linked it at the bottom of this page if you would like to review it.

One of my principles was that we should not use free agents as gap fillers until we had 11 core players. I defined core players as: starters on the offense or defense with at least average ability (proven not potential), who can be expected to be here, under contract, in three years.

I asked posters to help me identify our core players. We started by identifying those that Mike Shanahan had inherited:

Core Players selected by the group who were on the roster prior to Jan, 2010 (currently contributing in bold)

Cooley

Orakpo

D. Hall

Landry

Armstrong

(Fred Davis wasn't a starter)

Core Players selected by the group November, 2010

Cooley

Orakpo

D.Hall

Landry

T.Williams

Alexander

Armstrong

In 2010, we identified players with the potential to emerge as Core Players in 2011: Barnes, Lichtensteiger, Riley, Kerrigan, Jenkins, Hankerson, Helu. Out of the seven, Ryan Kerrigan, our first round pick and Perry Riley have made the grade.

Currently, our core players would be:

Griffin

Morris

Kerrigan

Riley

Bowen

T.Williams

Possible (If they return to full health):

Orakpo

Garcon

Davis

Unless we wear burgundy glasses, it's easy to see that the Shanahan roster-building program isn't on a dynasty pace. It seems to me that he's doing a much better job of finding free agent gap fillers than Vinny did (Cofield, J.Wilson and Bowen*). We might have more depth, but we aren't adding quality starters fast enough to do anything more than maintain the core level that

Mike inherited. [*Bowen and Riley were added to my list of core players as a compromise]

We now have the important QB position filled, but the cost was high. That cost makes it less likely we can add to the core in 2013 and 2014.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?338133-Planning-for-a-Redskins-Dynasty/page4

[DC9]

Not a bad post from oldfan.

Griffin

Morris

Kerrigan

T.Williams

I think you should add Perry Riley to that fold. He's been at least average. But an interesting thread nonetheless.

That said, playing Devil's Advocate, can you give me 11 players on the Giants using the same definition?

My point is, that this is a league that a team with the 70% solution could likely win a Super Bowl (and has in the past). Players get injured, etc... see Green Bay and the NYG for recent success in that aspect. You just need that 70% in the right spots.

EDIT: Also, in terms of success (not necissarily Super Bowl Champsionship success) but the Patriots also have a pretty high turnover.

[Henry]

I would add Orakpo and Perry Riley to your list. I would add a few potentials as well, namely Garcon, Hankerson and Young. Fred Davis is iffy. He's a talent but he's got baggage.

Overall though I get your point, and I agree that a rebuilding team like ours should be building through the draft and not free agency. I think given that Shanahan's first real draft was 2011 it might be a little early to decide whether or not we've found any more 'core' players from that class, or from 2012. Sometimes players develop into starters.

Unfortunately we wasted 2010 trading away picks and signing old players to fill gaps that were much bigger than the coaching staff imagined, so in my estimation we are a year behind where we should be. Given that, I think this team looks like a team would if it were in year two of a total rebuild. I also agree that the picks we gave up for Griffin are gonna hurt. It remains to be seen if Shanahan and Allen will be able to make up for that with some shrewd late-round drafting. That said, Griffin is turning out to be a hell of a QB.

[KDawg]

I know this is missing the point of the entire thread (but I promise I didn't miss it) but why is everyone so down on Rak all of a sudden? Only reasonable explanation is that this pec injury is pretty bad and people are unsure if he can come back...

[DC9]

I know this is missing the point of the entire thread (but I promise I didn't miss it) but why is everyone so down on Rak all of a sudden? Only reasonable explanation is that this pec injury is pretty bad and people are unsure if he can come back...

I'm not leaving his name out because of the injury, I am leaving his name out because oldfan said "a player that will be here in three years" and that would be an assumption as he isn't under contract and there are question marks there. I'd have Rak on my list as well otherwise.

[authentic]

RG3

T Williams

Morris

Garcon

Kerrigan

Davis

Riley

Young

Bowen

-and probably Morgan...

Everyone else is pretty much expendable, IMO.

[Laxpunk2006]

That said, playing Devil's Advocate, can you give me 11 players on the Giants using the same definition?

Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Will Beaty, Justin Tuck, JPP, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, Terrell Thomas (IR), Cory Webster(on the verge as he is 30 now), Linval Joseph.

There are plenty of other fringe guys like Osi Umenyiora depending on if he hangs around, Mathias Kiwanuaka, David Wilson is probably a reasonable expectation. Stevie Brown looks like he could be a starting safety there.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

I know this is missing the point of the entire thread (but I promise I didn't miss it) but why is everyone so down on Rak all of a sudden? Only reasonable explanation is that this pec injury is pretty bad and people are unsure if he can come back...

Yeah man...everybody just pulled a straight John Cena crowd turn on him and Kerrigan

I don't get it

[authentic]

I know this is missing the point of the entire thread (but I promise I didn't miss it) but why is everyone so down on Rak all of a sudden? Only reasonable explanation is that this pec injury is pretty bad and people are unsure if he can come back...

from my perspective Rak's stock has risen since the immediate drop off in QB pressures since his injury. But his peck injury is concerning. We'll see how he bounces back next season.

[Oldfan]

I would add Orakpo and Perry Riley to your list. I would add a few potentials as well, namely Garcon, Hankerson and Young. Fred Davis is iffy. He's a talent but he's got baggage.

I didn't add Orakpo because his surgery makes a return to full strength questionable. I didn't add Riley because I don't yet consider him as an average LB. I'm striving to be more realistic than we did in compiling similar lists. However, if others feel as you do, I'll add them.

Overall though I get your point, and I agree that a rebuilding team like ours should be building through the draft and not free agency. I think given that Shanahan's first real draft was 2011 it might be a little early to decide whether or not we've found any more 'core' players from that class, or from 2012. Sometimes players develop into starters.

Granted.

Unfortunately we wasted 2010 trading away picks and signing old players to fill gaps that were much bigger than the coaching staff imagined, so in my estimation we are a year behind where we should be. Given that, I think this team looks like a team would if it were in year two of a total rebuild.

I think you are being a little generous, but...

[orlskinsfan]

its my opinion a true rebuilding of a franchise does not start happening until you have a franchise qb. This to me is the first year of the rebuild project. You could count last year, but year 1 of shanny was still a try to win now year with the acquistion of McNabb.

[orlskinsfan]

its also my opinion that Rak might be done, the position he plays and the injury he sustained is a very bad one. I forsee him having issues every year now with the peck injury and wouldnt be surprised if he tears it again next year.

[DC9]

Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Will Beaty, Justin Tuck, JPP, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, Terrell Thomas (IR), Cory Webster(on the verge as he is 30 now), Linval Joseph.

There are plenty of other fringe guys like Osi Umenyiora depending on if he hangs around, Mathias Kiwanuaka, David Wilson is probably a reasonable expectation. Stevie Brown looks like he could be a starting safety there.

If he isn't playing right now (IR) then he isn't playing average ball is he? I'd also argue Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle (who'd obviously start on this team) but have been in and out of the lineup because of performance in recent years.

And Tuck is also getting up there in age and Kiwanuaka hasn't been the best LB or Pass rusher recently.

[H-O-G]

Robert Griffin III

Alfred Morris

Ryan Kerrigan

Trent Williams

Brian Orakpo

Pierre Garcon

Fred Davis

My list of current core players.

[Oldfan]

its my opinion a true rebuilding of a franchise does not start happening until you have a franchise qb. This to me is the first year of the rebuild project. You could count last year, but year 1 of shanny was still a try to win now year with the acquistion of McNabb.

I think a rebuild adds talent when the opportunity to add talent arises.

[Boss_Hogg]

I think some of you fail to remember just how bad that 2009 roster was. The Redskins were essentially an expansion team in 2010, there was little if any talent on both sides of the ball.

[Oldfan]

Robert Griffin III

Alfred Morris

Ryan Kerrigan

Trent Williams

Brian Orakpo

Pierre Garcon

Fred Davis

My list of current core players.

Davis and Orakpo may not come back from surgery to full strength. Garcon may need surgery on the ligament damage.

I'm trying to be more realistic than we have been in the past in compiling this list.

[authentic]

I think some of you fail to remember just how bad that 2009 roster was. The Redskins were essentially an expansion team in 2010, there was little if any talent on both sides of the ball.

I make this point often... Furthermore, i really don't think the issues with the team this year has ALL to do with talent.

[DC9]

I think a rebuild adds talent when the opportunity to add talent arises.

I agree with this. You also need to look at it as, "who would want to play for the Redskins in 2010-2011?"

1. 2010 was probably the worst free agency class in the history of the league. All of the franchise tenders made that year a debacle. I think by bringing in McNabb, Shanny was trying to make DC more attractive as a destination for players. He knew JCam wouldn't get it done and he also knew we couldn't trade up to get Bradford. That said, it didn't work.

2. 2011 was similar, but there was a little bit more out there, but the concentrated offseason due to the lockout made it difficult.

3. 2012, we trade up for the #2 pick and we get Garcon and Morgan right off the bat (granted, we did slightly overpay for Garcon in my opinion, especially since he can't get on the field now). We would've had more had the cap penalty not bit us in the ass. But as you said, now that we have a Quarterback who has shown he is legit, we may get a break from people who may want to come play for RG3 as opposed to overpaying them to come here.

So, we'll have to see how the guys on IR this year pan out, hopefully Neild comes back healthy, we can get Tanard Jackson eligible, and we can draft a couple of DBs and linemen who can produce and provide depth next year and we'll be right there to fight for the division in my opinion. With most of our squad on the right side of 30.

[Oldfan]

I think some of you fail to remember just how bad that 2009 roster was. The Redskins were essentially an expansion team in 2010, there was little if any talent on both sides of the ball.

I think you are exaggerating, but it doesn't matter. The group found four core players off the 2009 roster. We are only counting core players.

[DC9]

I think you are exaggerating, but it doesn't matter. The group found four core players off the 2009 roster. We are only counting core players.

Can you really count Cooley as a core player. I mean, he didn't even make the team this season (three years from 2009). So can't you retroactively remove him and say it was three?

[Oldfan]

I agree with this. You also need to look at it as, "who would want to play for the Redskins in 2010-2011?"

Cofield and Bowen did because we paid them.

2011 was similar, but there was a little bit more out there, but the concentrated offseason due to the lockout made it difficult.

True.

2012, we trade up for the #2 pick and we get Garcon and Morgan right off the bat (granted, we did slightly overpay for Garcon in my opinion, especially since he can't get on the field now). We would've had more had the cap penalty not bit us in the ass. But as you said, now that we have a Quarterback who has shown he is legit, we may get a break from people who may want to come play for RG3 as opposed to overpaying them to come here.

True.

So, we'll have to see how the guys on IR this year pan out, hopefully Neild comes back healthy, we can get Tanard Jackson eligible, and we can draft a couple of DBs and linemen who can produce and provide depth next year and we'll be right there to fight for the division in my opinion. With most of our squad on the right side of 30.

We can always hope for the best.

[Boss_Hogg]

I think you are exaggerating, but it doesn't matter. The group found four core players off the 2009 roster. We are only counting core players.

Just my point. You can't build a 53 man roster and only dress 46 on game day with a core of four guys.

[kearney]

I would add Orakpo and Perry Riley to your list. I would add a few potentials as well, namely Garcon, Hankerson and Young. Fred Davis is iffy. He's a talent but he's got baggage.

You just saved me a bit of typing, agree 100%. You can't say people aren't "core" players just because they are currently injured. When healthy, Orakpo and Garcon are definitely core players

[Oldfan]

Can you really count Cooley as a core player. I mean, he didn't even make the team this season (three years from 2009). So can't you retroactively remove him and say it was three?

No. What we are doing is trying to compare our group's assessment at the time with our assessment now.

---------- Post added October-31st-2012 at 10:39 AM ----------

You just saved me a bit of typing, agree 100%. You can't say people aren't "core" players just because they are currently injured. When healthy, Orakpo and Garcon are definitely core players

If we are trying to be realistic, we can't assume that players off surgeries will return to full strength. Garcon's toe is as important to him as it was for Antonio Gates.

---------- Post added October-31st-2012 at 10:41 AM ----------

You just saved me a bit of typing, agree 100%. You can't say people aren't "core" players just because they are currently injured. When healthy, Orakpo and Garcon are definitely core players

If we are trying to be realistic, we can't assume that players off surgeries will return to full strength. Garcon's toe is as important to him as it was for Antonio Gates.