pointyfootball Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Thursday night games are BS IMO b/c they are a competitive disdavantage for the visiting team. I know the NFL will never go away from it now that they've dipped their big fat toe in the water, but they should really do their best to make sure that teams are subject to the same scheduling advantages/disadvantages, even if spread over a year or two. I did a little bit of research, and maybe used poor statistical analysis to make my point, but figured I'd post it anyway. Since 2006 season, the home team has gone 30-19 (.612) on Thanksgiving and Thursday night games. If you take out the Lions abysmal Thanksgiving record it goes to 30-13 (.698). Compare that to an average home winning ratio of .562 (for entire season) over the same time period . Every year except 2006, the winning visiting teams overall record was significantly better than that of the home team, meaning they overcame the disadvantage of playing away on 4 days rest because they were just a much better team. 2006 Home team 5-2 Winning visiting teams: Dolphins & 49ers (Combined record this year: 13-19) Losing home teams: Lions, Seahawks (Combined Record this year: 12-20) Average margin of victory in 5 wins: 13 pts Average margin of loss in 2 losses: 13.5pts 2007 Home team 4-3 Winning visiting teams: Colts, Steelers & Packers (Combined record this year: 36-12) Losing home teams: Lions, Falcons, Rams (Combined record this year: 14-34) Average margin of victory in 5 wins: 13 pts Average margin of loss in 2 losses: 16.75 pts 2008 Home Team 5-4 Winning visiting teams: Broncos, Jets, Titans & Colts (Combined Record this year: 42-22) Losing home teams: Lions, Browns, Patriots, Jags (Combined Record this year: 20-44) Average margin of victory in 5 wins: 20 pts Average margin of loss in 4 losses: 12.75 pts 2009 Home Team 4-4 Winning visiting teams: Packers, Dolphins, Jets & Colts (Combined Record this year: 41-23) Losing home teams: Lions, Panthers, Bills & Jags (Combined Record this year: 23-41) Average margin of victory in 4 wins: 12.5 pts Average margin of loss in 4 losses: 9.75 pts 2010 Home Team 5-4 Winning visiting teams: Patriots, Saints, Bears & Colts (Combined Record this year: 46-18) Losing Hhome teams: Lions, Dolphins, Cowboys, Titans (Combined Record this year: 25-39) Average margin of victory in 5 wins: 16.2 pts Average margin of loss in 4 losses: 10.5 pts 2011 Home Team 7-2 Winning visiting teams: Raiders, Packers (Combined Record this year: 23-9) Losing home teams: Chargers, Lions (Combined Record this year: 18-14) Average margin of victory in 7 wins: 10.25 pts Average margin of loss in 2 losses: 9.5 pts PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Nope. It's also an injury hazard. But it makes money as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman21ST Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 That means over the past 6 years the home teams are 30-19 in TNF games. Little over a .600 winning percentage - that doesn't seem too out of whack. I'd need to see the numbers for MNF and then just the overall home records of teams to make a comparison. Ah, found something: http://www.nflstatanalysis.net/2011/02/home-field-advantage-in-nfl-detroit.html Between 2003 and 2010, 20 teams had a home winning percentage of at least 55%. Seeing that, I would say there's not a significant advantage to playing home games on TNF. EDIT: and now I read the whole OP, and see you gave the same information. :doh: I still wouldn't call that significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve09ru Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I wouldn't say so, looking at the teams who have less than a .500 win percentage - they haven't really been very good teams History of Thursday night games by teams: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thursday_Night_Football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointyfootball Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 EDIT: and now I read the whole OP, and see you gave the same information. :doh: I still wouldn't call that significant. Considering one of the weakest teams (Detroit Lions) over the past 10 years plays one Thursday home game every year, I think the .050 increase is quite significant. If you throw out Detroit's games, it's over a .120 increase in home winning percentage. That's a lot, IMO. ---------- Post added October-5th-2012 at 11:40 AM ---------- I wouldn't say so, looking at the teams who have less than a .500 win percentage - they haven't really been very good teams I think you're agreeing with me in that the teams that can't win at home are poor teams going against top quality teams. The only teams that seem to be able to win on the road for Thursday games are teams that are top tier in the league (Colts, Steelers, Saints, Packers, Patriots). Teams that are average have little-to-no shot it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve09ru Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Considering one of the weakest teams (Detroit Lions) over the past 10 years plays one Thursday home game every year, I think the .050 increase is quite significant. If you throw out Detroit's games, it's over a .120 increase in home winning percentage. That's a lot, IMO. You can't take away the overall record just because 1 team hasn't been that good over the years - if that's the case then we can take the best teams who had home games and won - they Thursday matchups have been fairly poor prior to this year. The home team wins because typically the stronger/better team is at home during those games - above in my last post shows what teams have had a record under .500 and those teams have not been good I think you're agreeing with me in that the teams that can't win at home are poor teams going against top quality teams. The only teams that seem to be able to win on the road for Thursday games are teams that are top tier in the league (Colts, Steelers, Saints, Packers, Patriots). Teams that are average have little-to-no shot it seems. Yeah I agree but that's how all games are played for the most part regardless of it being a Thursday/Sunday/Monday - the superior team always has the upperhand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pointyfootball Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 You can't take away the overall record just because 1 team hasn't been that good over the years - if that's the case then we can take the best teams who had home games and won - they Thursday matchups have been fairly poor prior to this year. The home team wins because typically the stronger/better team is at home during those games - above in my last post shows what teams have had a record under .500 and those teams have not been good I know it's not good statistics, although Detroit plays a large number of Thursday games, and their ineptitude probably skews the results. I still think including them in the numbers shows a significant difference (.612 vs .562). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinklein Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Interesting post. But I'll tell you what's really unfair to everyone: subjecting us to that terrible Cee Lo Green opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman21ST Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Considering one of the weakest teams (Detroit Lions) over the past 10 years plays one Thursday home game every year, I think the .050 increase is quite significant. If you throw out Detroit's games, it's over a .120 increase in home winning percentage. That's a lot, IMO. You can't really just throw that out though, no more than I can throw out the best team's record over that span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boss_Hogg Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I don't like Thursday night games. At the very least give each team a bye before a Thursday night game. Subjecting players to go full contact with only three days of rest is wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Interesting post.But I'll tell you what's really unfair to everyone: subjecting us to that terrible Cee Lo Green opening. LOL I have Cee Lo's album, sure it's mainly based on re-establishing an old sound (but he's been doing that for awhile now) but it's pretty good. But man, that opening for NFL Network is terrible for two reasons: 1) His ugly mug and the weird way he tries to actually imitate the accent the Ramones used 2) Butchering Blitzkrieg Bop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zazzaro703 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I came here to post a thread on this. It seems the Thursday night games are lacking in quality. It's not sharp football and it's sloppy. Most the offenses have come out flat on Thursday. While it's a great idea and ive been loving having football on Thursday, the drop in quality is noticable. Still can't figure out how the Ravens get scheduled a Sunday night game, then Thursday night. Edit: The song is God awful too, someone on NFL network has gotta man up and speak the truth so they change that crap. How something like that got green lighted to begin with is a little troubling in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dreamshatterer Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Interesting post.But I'll tell you what's really unfair to everyone: subjecting us to that terrible Cee Lo Green opening. You can rest easy. Since we are playing the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, we will be on FOX at 4. Not on NFL Network where Cee Lo Green is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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