drtdrums Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 From Football Outsiders: Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32). Redskins Rank: #1 So...uh...is Cofield not in for 3rd and 4th downs? I really don't know. But if he is, there goes the "He sucks against the run," idea. It would seem to indicate that he is being asked to do different things on 1st-2nd down. We are, technically, 23rd against the run (according to the same site) up the middle. So there's a legit case to be made. But if our NT "sucks" against the run, why are we the hardest team in the league to run against on 3rd/4th and short? Note: Football Outsiders attempts to account for "hidden" stats by adjusting numbers to to match the situational statistics. IE - If a team is very good running up the middle and the Redskins stop them 25% of the time in power situations, they will be ranked better than a team that stuffs 30% of runs in Power situations against a terrible team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think people need to watch more games around the league and watch all the 3-4 DL that can get push and make plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rookieskin Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I really really like the Cofield aquisition, and the rotation with Neild. If we get a Big ole 300+ "prototypical" NT that is additional gravy on some very good mashed potatoes, I just want to see some MEAT in the Offensive Trench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gchwood Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Being dropped into zone coverage often has absolutely no bearing on run responsibility whatsoever.A NT is, ideally, supposed to occupy two blockers and hold the point of attack. Cofield does a decent job of occupying two guys but he gets pushed off the line of scrimmage often enough to create problems. You've got to keep in mind that a good push by the offensive line will result in more guaranteed short yardage and also tends to spread the front line further out, widening the running lanes. The more I see this defense play the more I believe that shoddy team tackling, poor LB play, and atrocious safety play are the primary culprits behind most of our failures rather than the DL and CBs. I'd still prefer to see Cofield relegated to a slightly reduced or modified role, though. You simply can't grade NTs statistically. You can deduce certain things about a NT by looking at team stats but the only way to verify their play is by watching them in action. The stats of the future thing is actually along the lines of something I've contemplated doing somewhat recently... but that's something that might warrant its own thread at a later date. 1. Being dropped into zone coverage requires a read and react, thus unable to get to the point of attack as quickly. 2. Since we both agree that he is constantly getting doubled, regardless if he gets pushed 15 yards back a LB should be in there to make the tackle prior to that point. Rocky has done a terrible job of filling the gaps like he is supposed to, hopefully Riley can do better over the course of the next few weeks. 3. I am not against getting a true NT, if and only if he is actually an upgrade over Cofield, but I don't seen any FAs that are, and I also see that this is Cofield's first season playing this position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pram11 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I think Cofield can play the nose in this defense and we're okay, but we'll never be dominant against the run with him there. There will be some free agent NTs this year, but the only one young enough I'd touch is Paul Soliai. In fact, he's the one defensive free agent I hope we sign. He's young (27), huge (355 lbs) and a bull against the run. So what if he only plays two downs. Haslett basically said that Cofield would be a 2-down player before Jenkins got hurt, noting he would not be in the nickel. Sign Solia to anchor the base, then you have three good ends who can rotate and stay fresh in Bowen, Barry and Jenkins. Yards allowed/game is the wrong stat to measure a team's run defense, since various factors can skew those numbers, such as playing with a poor offense that can't control TOP and being behind late in games. The number I always look to is yards allowed per carry. This, for the most part, measures a team's ability to hold up against the run on a down-to-down basis. As of right now, we are middle of the pact, allowing 4.3 yards/carry - tied for 16th in the league. The great run defenses give up around 3.5 yards/carry (Baltimore leads the league at 3.3 yds/carry allowed). If you want to be a top 10 run defense, you better come in at 4.0 yards/carry allowed or less (Jax and the Jets are tied for 10th at 4.0 yards/carry allowed). And so I go back to the guy I mentioned and his team, Paul Soliai and the Miami Dolphins, who rank 6th in the league vs the run at 3.8 yds/carry allowed. There are several factors that affect this statistic, but they were 7th in the league last year at 3.6 yds/per carry allowed with Soliai anchoring their 3-4 front. The guy can play and upgrade our line and run defense in a big way. No, he's not going to offer a pass rush, but he's going to help get you in a lot of 3rd and longs and allow Rak, Kerrigan, Cofield, Bowen and Jenkins to get after the QB. At 27-years old, he may be the smartest money we can spend on our D this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnhay Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm waiting for someone to admit they don't even pay attention to what Barry Cofield is doing. I can't imagine most of you guys have really paid attention to him enough to have an educated opinion. Seriously, who watches the nose tackle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laron Burgundy Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This is ridiculous to me. We are actually middle of the league in yards per carry (teams carry a lot against us because we can't score points). Don't get me wrong, we COULD improve, but we've faced the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 2 10th ranked run teams. That's 6 of our 9 games against top 10 run games. Rocky misses tackles like a madmen (football outsiders tracks it, he was 10th worst in the league last year). Doughty has missed quite a few himself. The problem in our run defense hasn't been that our linebackers and safeties are getting blocked, it's that we miss key tackles when we get the opportunity and it has led to some big plays against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gchwood Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm waiting for someone to admit they don't even pay attention to what Barry Cofield is doing. I can't imagine most of you guys have really paid attention to him enough to have an educated opinion. Seriously, who watches the nose tackle? Well I played NT in high school so I tend to pay attention to those guys. ---------- Post added November-18th-2011 at 08:13 AM ---------- This is ridiculous to me. We are actually middle of the league in yards per carry (teams carry a lot against us because we can't score points). Don't get me wrong, we COULD improve, but we've faced the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 2 10th ranked run teams. That's 6 of our 9 games against top 10 run games. Rocky misses tackles like a madmen (football outsiders tracks it, he was 10th worst in the league last year). Doughty has missed quite a few himself. The problem in our run defense hasn't been that our linebackers and safeties are getting blocked, it's that we miss key tackles when we get the opportunity and it has led to some big plays against us. This^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 We still need to upgrade the position. Cofield is at best an average NT but he can be an above average DE. We will be a much better run defense when we can afford to play him at his best position. For now Barry's the best NT we have on the roster-- so he plays. Haslett just mentioned that he could be the best NT in the league (per redskins quotes in breaking news section). I don't really know what to make of that, but I'd say that goes against your "average at best" statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pedro Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Haslett just mentioned that he could be the best NT in the league If we were playing with a lead on a regular basis he would be up there already. Next year he should be even better though imo we still need another NT for those few teams that come in with the intention of running the whole game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I didn't know we had NT Chris Baker on the PS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 “Barry played excellent last week. He had a nice game. I think the center from Miami is a good football player. [Mike] Pouncey is going to get better as he plays. I thought Barry had an excellent game. I think Barry can be one of the best nose tackles in the league. He can hold the point. He can play frontside. He’s active and he’s a good pass rusher.” “I just think the understanding. He’s never played the position, No.1. And not having the offseason or an extended training camp, it probably put him behind. But he’s really a smart player. He analyzes the position. He’s strong. He’s athletic. He’s got a lot of savvy in there. He understands and studies the game. He understands his opponent. I think Barry can be one of the better if not the best nose tackles in the league.” - Jim Haslett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gchwood Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 I think that this week will be an excellent test for him. The interior of the cowboys line is weak, but Murray has been running all over the place. Lets see (and lets be sure to pay specific attention to him) if he can hold the block and not get pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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