A good year for the Stock Market

[Burgold]

Amongst all the mixed signs of the year, it is nice that the stock market has shown strength. For those who stayed in or come back in. Good for you, you have most likely had a strong year. Is this an effect of the Stim and the TARP? Probably a little. Is it influenced by Obama? Not much, but I do think there was an effect in March and May when there was that first surge in consumer confidence. Is it just part of a normal economic cyclic recovery or an illusion based on misguided psychology? There's a little bit of that too, but as we close the year out... it's nice to know that this year was better than last and those that predicted devastation and dead cat bounces underestimated once again the resiliency of the American market.

We love to complain and prognosticate about our endless doom and the things that go wrong, but sometimes it's nice to see and reflect on the vibrance and strength of the American psyche or economic system. We can recover from what we do to ourselves.

At any rate, to those who have survived and thrived and to the hope that American industry continues to grow stronger each year, I say "cheers"

[twa]

n/m

Merry Christmas

[Fergasun]

Pay no attention to the men behind the curtain... stock market is a scam... our economy is tanking yet stocks are going up?

[stevenaa]

Pay no attention to the men behind the curtain... stock market is a scam... our economy is tanking yet stocks are going up?

Consumers are out in droves everywhere I go. Maybe they're not spending as much, but that's hardly a bad thing if it means people are being more responsible. There are jobs to be had, atleast in my neck of the woods.

[Larry]

As to a reason, I'd credit the bailouts. And, to a lesser extend, the stimulus.

I'm not saying that either really added that much to our economy. Face it, the stock market (at least the stocks I'm in) is double what it was in March. No, our economy has not doubled since March.

But the stock market moves on perception. A year ago, the perception was that the world's economy was on the brink of total collapse.

Now, the perception is that it isn't.

(And that's why I say that the bailouts, and, maybe the stimulus, were successes. They stopped the panic. Which was exactly their mission.)

[Larry]

Consumers are out in droves everywhere I go. Maybe they're not spending as much, but that's hardly a bad thing if it means people are being more responsible. There are jobs to be had, atleast in my neck of the woods.

Actually, that's an example of another bit of perspective, to me.

I've been of the opinion for some time that:

If you ask a Republican how the economy is doing, he'll tell you about the stock market.

If you ask a Democrat how the economy is doing, he'll tell you about employment.

Me, I'm much closer to the Democrats on this matter of perspective. My opinion is that the stock market is affected by the economy, but that the wages of the American People are the economy. (And, IMO, by that measure, the economy's been pretty much zero growth for 30 years.)

"Consumer spending" is nice. But I'd much rather see increased employment. And, frankly, some increase in wages are long overdue.

IMO, increasing the amount of money that America makes is a lot more important than increasing how much it spends.

[Burgold]

We can bah humbug about the market rising or say it means this or doesn't meant that, but for the now... it's a much nicer thing that it's up and it being up has better portends down the road than if things were going the other direction.

[Larry]

Oh, I'll strongly agree.

IMO, the stock market going up doesn't mean a thing for it's own sake. But what it reflects is really good news.

[alexey]

Also do not forget that whole "stress test" business. I think that was a big confidence booster. Results were released on May 7, it would be interesting to see how the market was moving before and after that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_stress_tests