Slaga's Power Rankings - Week 3

[slaga]

This is a very basic formula. I take 3 numbers, winning percentages for each team (team %), the average winning % of that teams opponents already played (past op. %), and the average winning percentage of that teams future opponents (future op. %). I average those winning percentages but put a little more emphasis on that teams current winning %. You will notice that the future op. % in the formula below is "1-fut op %". That is because if the future opponents have an average winning % of 25%, the team has a better chance in winning future games, theoretically, so 75% is averaged with that teams percentages.

(Team % + Team % + Past Op. % + (1-Future Op. %))/4

Rank Last Week Week 3 Combined Winning %

1 4 New Orleans Saints 76.5%

2 1 New York Jets 73.1%

3 7 Minnesota Vikings 70.5%

4 3 New York Giants 69.2%

5 6 Denver Broncos 69.2%

6 8 Indiannapolis Colts 69.0%

7 5 Baltimore Ravens 65.8%

8 11 New England Patriots 63.5%

9 12 Cinncinnati Bengals 62.2%

10 2 San Franciso 49ers 62.0%

11 10 San Diego Chargers 57.9%

12 15 Green Bay Packers 56.6%

13 18 Chicago Bears 55.3%

14 19 Dallas Cowboys 51.9%

15 20 Philadelphia Eagles 51.3%

16 9 Atlanta Falcons 49.8%

17 16 Arizona Cardinals 48.1%

18 26 Detroit Lions 47.6%

19 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 47.2%

20 21 Buffalo Bills 45.9%

21 13 Seattle Seahawks 41.9%

22 14 Houston Texans 41.9%

23 23 Oakland Raiders 40.8%

24 22 Pittsburgh Steelers 40.0%

25 17 Washington Redskins 38.7%

26 25 Cleveland Browns 37.8%

27 24 Miami Dolphins 32.9%

28 32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.2%

29 29 Carolina Panthers 27.6%

30 28 Kansas City Chiefs 27.6%

31 30 Tennessee Titans 27.4%

32 31 St. Louis Rams 22.6%

1 NFC North 57.5%

2 AFC East 53.8%

3 NFC East 52.8%

4 AFC North 51.4%

5 AFC West 48.9%

6 AFC South 46.4%

7 NFC South 45.5%

8 NFC West 43.6%

Points to note:

All 3 of Clevelands oppponents so far are undefeated (100%).

Atlanta and Indianpolis' opponents are tied with a total of 2 wins for each team (22.2%).

Philadelphia's future opponents have the highest winning % to date at 61.5%.

Jacksonville's future oppenents have the lowest winning % to date at 33.3%.

[bobbee1011]

Don't quit your day job. Thanks

[Old Bay]

There's some debatability about the rankings, but at least you have a formula and it's based off of what the teams have actually done so far in the season.

[slaga]

Don't quit your day job. Thanks

Insightful, coming from a Cowboy fan, on a Skins board. If you read the original post you would know that this is not opinion based whatsoever.

[Tom [Giants fan]]

I know the Giants beat a bad team but it is the way they beat them which should not have made them drop. Your formula does not take that into consideration. The Giants could have beaten them 50-0 and they still would have dropped. Your formula does lack something for validity.

[darklight1216]

Thats interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[Enter Apotheosis]

;6825878']I know the Giants beat a bad team but it is the way they beat them which should not have made them drop. Your formula does not take that into consideration. The Giants could have beaten them 50-0 and they still would have dropped. Your formula does lack something for validity.

Strength of victory should definitely factor in somehow.

[slaga]

Strength of victory should definitely factor in somehow.

This is not college ball where how badly you beat your competition affects your rankings. In college, teams regularly run the score up to get better rankings so they can play in Bowl games. No team, sans Patriots 2 years ago, in the NFL run the score up on their opponents, just because they can. So trying to quantify a better win is quite difficult, when teams that can run up the score, intentionally don't. Instead they go to a prevent defense to protect a win.

The main goal of every team is to win games. Some teams win games with a stifling defense, others with a pass happy, point churning offense. Quantifying a good win vs. a bad win is quite difficult to do when either the offense (Colts) or the defense (Steelers) can take you to the Superbowl. The ultimate goal is winning and that is the indicator in this formula and the quality of your opponents, both past and future, affect your standing.

[slaga]

;6825878']I know the Giants beat a bad team but it is the way they beat them which should not have made them drop. Your formula does not take that into consideration. The Giants could have beaten them 50-0 and they still would have dropped. Your formula does lack something for validity.

Good teams beating bad teams keeps the status quo and the Giants beat a team with no wins and dropped 1 spot. It is expected that good teams will beat bad teams. Beating good teams moves you up in the rankings and losing to bad teams drops your ranking. I also don't think there is enough data to get a good handle on the power rankings, yet. I think it will be more in line with what people expect as we get closer to mid season.

Look at the Giants game a different way from week 2 to week 3. In week 2 the formula had Tampa, a winless team, as one of the future opponents. The fact that the Giants were expecting a winless team in the future helped their rankings in week 2. In week 3 Tampa moved from the future opponent side to the already played opponent side. The game against Tampa was in the calculation in both weeks and the expected, a Giants win, happened so the net result was minimal movement in the rankings. Another undefeated team beat a previously undefeated team (Vikings over 49ers) so they moved up.

[Dan T.]

Not bad. Simple. Clean. It'll refine and self-adjust as the season goes on.