WMD's or lack off/anti-war sentiment: Could that lead to Dem Nonimee Howard Dean

[88Comrade2000]

WE know the core of the democratic party has a hatred of Bush; just like the core of the republican party had a hartred of Clinton.

WE know the base of the democratic party was anti-war. Howard Dean is anti-war. The lack of WMD's is playing up to Howard Dean's hand. Democrats are already worrying. While Deans views will crush him in a general election; I could see stealing the nomination from Kerry or Gephart. He's taping into the core democratic anger over Bush: From Election 2000 to Iraq War and just wait if there's a fight for supreme court nominees this fall. I can see him winning the nomination.

[chiefhogskin48]

It would make for an exciting fight for the nomination, and a LANDSLIDE election. W Bush in a song....

I don't even know who of the Democrats has the best chance of beating Bush.

[phishhead]

I'm a huge Dean fan. Do I think he has a chance against Bush? Well, anyone who leans even slightly to the right will be against Dean. But all us pure Democrats will push Dean as far as he can go.

But when it comes down to it, if he wins the Democrat nomination, which is very possible, do I think he has a chance against our current Pres?

Sadly, no.

[@DCGoldPants]

I'm in Cleveland right now with my Uncle who's getting worked on at the Cleveland Clinic. During the Taxi ride over, I've never seen so many sighs and spraypaintings which were so negative "Bush".

Stuff like "Saddam WAS Evil but you did this for Oil Mr. Bush" and "Cleaning up after your father?" Especially in little italy. People went nuts out here.

later

[Kilmer17]

And yet the polls are overwhelming. This reminds me of a story about Mary McRary (sp?). When Nixon won in 72 she was on one of the news shows and proclaimed "I cant see how he won, I dont know a single person who voted for him" para'd. But you get the point.

If Dean gets the nod, the happiest Dem will be Fritz Mondale, because he will no longer be viewed as the Dem who lost by the greatest margin. Dean would carry VT and MAYBE Mass. They'll announce the winner by 9 oclock.

[Riggo-toni]

Agreed. It would look like a rerun of Nixon - McGovern.

Personally, I like Liebermann the most of any of the Dems, but the economy will have to take a serious nosedive for W to lose.

[gbear]

Kilmer, he'd carry MD too. CA would still be probable as would PA if the cities vote again.

I'm not sure it would be the landslide you all predict. I think lots would depend on the perception of having a chance to win. And that's if the election were to be held today.

WMD not found, a years worth of Iraqi deaths, unemployment not rebounding...There's a lot for Bush to worry about at this point.

The economy looks better if you are looking at just the stock market, but employment hasn't really recovered. Also, productivity gains have been slow.

In addition according to NPR last night, they were talking about which companies stocks are rising carrying the stock market up now. It's now the staple of blue chips that it has been in the past, and it's not been based on actual production. A compnay gets a little boost, and suddenly everybody buys the stock. That makes that quarters stock price go up, so more people buy it as a result of it having gone up the last month. As the analyst said, the fund is judged by how it does relative to other funds not how much it grows in an absolute sense. As a result, they can take the same risks the other funds take because if the stock drops, it probably dropped for everyone else too. There is some worry on wall street that next quarters profit statements could hurt the economy a bit again because the curent rush upwards hasn't really been based on much good news. In fact Greenspan was still warning of deflation (though the relative stagflation that we have injoyed of late is no treat either).

[Golgo-13]

Originally posted by Bush League Bufford

I'm in Cleveland right now with my Uncle who's getting worked on at the Cleveland Clinic. During the Taxi ride over, I've never seen so many sighs and spraypaintings which were so negative "Bush".

Stuff like "Saddam WAS Evil but you did this for Oil Mr. Bush" and "Cleaning up after your father?" Especially in little italy. People went nuts out here.

later

Too bad the morons who spraypaint buildings don't show up at the voting booth anyway.

[The Evil Genius]

Does anyone know what the polls said in early 1991 about papa Bush?

Didn't he enjoy a 20-30% lead over any of his challengers? Clinton, if memory serves, wasn't even on the DEM radar at that time.

My $'s are on the DEMS forming a Kerry/Edwards ticket. But I am sure that they will go another way and the election will be a lot closer than many expect (well, atleast the many on this board )

[Golgo-13]

Originally posted by gbear

In addition according to NPR last night, they were talking about which companies stocks are rising carrying the stock market up now. It's now the staple of blue chips that it has been in the past, and it's not been based on actual production. A compnay gets a little boost, and suddenly everybody buys the stock. That makes that quarters stock price go up, so more people buy it as a result of it having gone up the last month. As the analyst said, the fund is judged by how it does relative to other funds not how much it grows in an absolute sense. As a result, they can take the same risks the other funds take because if the stock drops, it probably dropped for everyone else too. There is some worry on wall street that next quarters profit statements could hurt the economy a bit again because the curent rush upwards hasn't really been based on much good news. In fact Greenspan was still warning of deflation (though the relative stagflation that we have injoyed of late is no treat either).

And the great irony of politics is that there will be many democrats hoping this happens just so Bush will get out of office. They will hope for things in our country to go bad just so they can get rid of our figurehead leader who everyone is convinced has SO much influnce on how things go. Politics really are pretty insane when you think about it. Nobody really gives a d@mn about the greater good, they just care about their side being right.

[Kilmer17]

gbear, no chance he'd carry MD. They just elected a GOP Governor for crissakes. Baltimore is a good example of the inroads the GOP is making with black voters. If Kennedy-Townsend was too liberal for MD, then Dean is wayyyyy overboard.

California is going to be interesting to watch for the GOP. Bush is polling very strong their. How much of that is Davis related backlash is unknown. But I suspect it is significant. If the economy in CA doesnt rebound, and the US economy continues to grow and becomes even better, then I think CA can go GOP. Throw Dean into the mix and that prospect is even better.

The economy looks good overall. Housing is still white hot. The market has 3 straight months of positive gains. Productivity is still positive (not mid 90s level, but still growing). And GNP continues to grow. I posted a link a couple of weeks ago showing the relation between unemployment and job availability. The jobs are there. People are still holding out for "dream jobs".

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by gbear

The economy looks better if you are looking at just the stock market, but employment hasn't really recovered. Also, productivity gains have been slow.

I think the economy is teetering on disaster.

The *consumer* economy is doing all right (not well) by some superficial measures. However, below the surface is the problem of record consumer debt ratios, along with a trend toward credit-card companies and other lenders having great flexibility to raise interest rates to loan-shark levels at their whim (based on a late payment or the consumer's credit rating).

But the real problem is the business economy. I do a lot of business-to-business work, and I've never seen the climate so tight. Even blue-chip companies are playing accounting games to prop up their quarterly numbers. They are outsourcing more of their work to lower-paid contractors who can be cut at will. And most of all, they are refusing to invest in anything without a very short-term ROI.

The sense I have is that the business economy is stretched taut, almost to the limit, and any major shock will have massive consequences.

One major company I deal with (a huge name) is a Wall Street darling, but employees can't travel, can't spend $10 (literally) without director-level authorization, and the company is having its procurement department and A/P reject invoices for irrelevant technical reasons. There's nothing left to cut, and the game-playing means that their results don't reflect their position. A major new shock to the economy would hit this company like a sledgehammer against glass.

[gbear]

Well Kilmer, MD also voted out Morella after many years. I'm not sure the GOV vote was a vote for the GOP so much as a rejection of the Kenedy Townsend ticket. Most of my friends that voted Ehrlich are a bit less happy with their choice now. We'll see though.

Bush is polling well everywhere. There is no opposition yet. There is no one other choice yet, and it's so early people outside of a small group don't even know who is for what.

Escholtz, I doubt there are many people cheering for a failing economy. We all like our lifestyle. Atleast from my perspective, as much as I dislike many of Bush's policies, there are still more things that go unquestioned because I (and most) agree with them. That said, if he can't manage the economy, or if the economy doesn't preceive him as able to manage it, he'll get critcism. Those of us on the Left won't hold back because we wish he would have done better. That would be silly.

[FROSTY28]

How bout a Howard Dean/Al "Bill O'Reilly is my *****" Franken ticket? I mean, the Dems might as well go down swinging.