QB Pressure, The Great Equalizer

[Oldfan]

Question: Are you talking about how pressuring the QB can rattle a QB and you may lose a game because of it or are you really saying that JC is incapable of handling the pressure like say Romo sits to pee can?

All QBs are heavily affected by pressure, some more than others. Few QBs have Romo sits to pee's ability to handle pressure (there was a huge difference between Romo sits to pee and Bledsoe). Campbell has some scrambling abilities which will help, but he will get better with experience.

[Oldfan]

Major Harris: i think you're nuts if you think the idea that you need to run the football and stop the run is obsolete or at all inaccurate.

That's not what I said. In reply to a previous post about the Vikings, I wrote:

"That team [the Vikings] was built on an obsolete model: Run the football. Stop the run."

I meant that it is an obsolete model because, in today's NFL, passing the football and stopping the pass is more important.

Average yards per attempt (YPA) is the best quick and dirty way to measure a team's passing efficiency. Average yards per carry does the same for the running game. Those are the measures I used in gathering some stats on the 2007 season.

The top five passing teams in YPA won 65 games last year.

The top five rushing teams in YPC won 44. (four more than average)

The bottom five rushing teams won 33.

The bottom five passing teams won 21.

As a general rule, the best teams in the NFL pass to get a lead and then run to keep it.

The following is from a Sports Illustrated article no longer online:

The NFL is a passing league and teams that come out and try to find balance with their play-calling in the first half are doomed to fail. You have to throw to score in the NFL. Check out these eye-opening stats of five playoff teams from last season:

Team, NFL rank runs 1st half, rank runs 2nd half

Seattle, 31st, 13th

GreenBay, 29th, 19th

Indianapolis, 28th, 7th

Dallas, 27th, 11th

New England, 26th, 14th

[BigRedskinDaddy]

All QBs are heavily affected by pressure, some more than others. Few QBs have Romo sits to pee's ability to handle pressure (there was a huge difference between Romo sits to pee and Bledsoe). Campbell has some scrambling abilities which will help, but he will get better with experience.

One of the biggest differences in JC from this year to those in the past has been his ability to sidestep the rush rather than just bailing out and running. He's not the most fluid individual -- he plays a little stiff for my taste in a QB -- but with Zorn's coaching he is getting better.

I remember how much he stressed to Jason to bend his knees more in TC, the distraction drills, etc etc. They've made him more capable of staying in the pocket and getting the ball downfield than he was in the past.

[Oldfan]

One of the biggest differences in JC from this year to those in the past has been his ability to sidestep the rush rather than just bailing out and running. He's not the most fluid individual -- he plays a little stiff for my taste in a QB -- but with Zorn's coaching he is getting better.

Jason is improving, but his biggest improvement will come when we add a pass-blocking stud at OT.

I'm not keen on drafting for need or trading up as a general rule, but if we could land someone at that position in the 2009 draft, Campbell's career would get a helluva boost.

[Morneblade]

Even when not pressured by the Steelers, Jason was wild high for the first time this year. My guess is that he was rushing things, an indirect effect of the pressure. This is probably something he will improve on with experience.

This is one of the things that doesnt get added into the equation of how pressure afftects qb's, but it should. If you start to get pressure regularly on a qb, he is going ot start rushing everytime he steps back, even if there isnt pressure on that paticular play. "Percieved Perssure" or "Expected Pressure" can make a qb not go to his next read or rush a throw and become more inaccurate. Sacks are the only stat we have right now in messureing pressure, but there are several aspects that are affected by getting pressure.

[Oldfan]

Sacks are the only stat we have right now in messureing pressure, but there are several aspects that are affected by getting pressure.

That's right. The stats guys at Football Outsiders chart clearly defined hits and hurries in addition to sacks, but those stats aren't available for free.

As I noted in the OP, the QB's completion percentage goes way down (34%) when hurried. They don't have a stat for the completion percentage when the pressure gets into the guy's head, but you have to figure there's a significant drop-off.

[maskedsuperstar]

I am surprised more teams haven't been able to apply more pressure on Campbell. It was proven in the pre-season that it is effective against us. Our offense falls apart with a little bit of a pass rush.

Not true. What did the Skins do against the Eagles? They ran the ball down their throat. The Steelers are good at stopping the run. And when the Skins were in 3rd and long, that played into the Steelers hands.

Its simple. The Steelers took the run away, and that doomed the Skins. Moss wasn't healthy. So, the Steelers went nuts with the zone blitz.

[Morneblade]

That's right. The stats guys at Football Outsiders chart clearly defined hits and hurries in addition to sacks, but those stats aren't available for free.

As I noted in the OP, the QB's completion percentage goes way down (34%) when hurried. They don't have a stat for the completion percentage when the pressure gets into the guy's head, but you have to figure there's a significant drop-off.

That's probably a stat we'll never see, as I dont think there is any objective way to "measure" when constant pressure starts to affect throws that are not pressured.

In other news, Rueters reports that there appears to be a meteor the size of Alaska heading towards earth. I guess that is what happens when you and I agree on something football related. It's been fun though!

[Oldfan]

Not true. What did the Skins do against the Eagles? They ran the ball down their throat. The Steelers are good at stopping the run. And when the Skins were in 3rd and long, that played into the Steelers hands.

Its simple. The Steelers took the run away, and that doomed the Skins. Moss wasn't healthy. So, the Steelers went nuts with the zone blitz.

Relatively speaking the Skins ran the ball better than they passed against the Steelers.

15 rushes @ 4.0 YPC

43 passes @ 3.2 YPA (7 sacks -45 deducted)

I didn't see that much blitzing from them. Mostly, they rushed one LB from the 3-4.

You're right on the difference a healthy Santana can make. Trouble is, he's not healthy more than he is healthy. We can't count on his durability going forward.

[SkinsTillIDie]

Football is won in the trenches, and for far too long, we haven't prioritized the lines in March and April... The ideal offseason?:

1) Sign Albert Haynesworth - we'll have to grossly outpay him. He's our only "big-name" free agent.

2) Draft best offensive lineman available with #1 pick

3) Draft best defensive end available with #3 pick

Do we have other holes? Of course... But given that we have the oldest starting offensive line in the league, and we are relying on Andre Carter (29), Cornelius Griffin (32 in December) and Jason Taylor (34) for our pass rush, we need to rebuild our lines before it is too late

[KDawg]

I'd love to see film here. I almost feel as if we're not getting pressure because we're afraid to get too much penetration and open up running lanes. If that's the case (and I'm not sure it is, I don't have game film in front of me) these guys need to get over that fear and be athletes. Make a play, play your responsibility, read, react and go get 'em.

[Oldfan]

I'd love to see film here. I almost feel as if we're not getting pressure because we're afraid to get too much penetration and open up running lanes. If that's the case (and I'm not sure it is, I don't have game film in front of me) these guys need to get over that fear and be athletes. Make a play, play your responsibility, read, react and go get 'em.

Seems to me a combination of scheme and lack of talent. I see out DEs lined up as though they have run-first responsibility much of the time -- and they seem to have good outside rush speed, but not much else going for them.

[Oldfan]

Football is won in the trenches, and for far too long, we haven't prioritized the lines in March and April... The ideal offseason?:

1) Sign Albert Haynesworth - we'll have to grossly outpay him. He's our only "big-name" free agent.

2) Draft best offensive lineman available with #1 pick

3) Draft best defensive end available with #3 pick

Do we have other holes? Of course... But given that we have the oldest starting offensive line in the league, and we are relying on Andre Carter (29), Cornelius Griffin (32 in December) and Jason Taylor (34) for our pass rush, we need to rebuild our lines before it is too late

I agree with your analysis of our needs, but as a long-term roster building strategy, filling needs with expensive free agents and drafting for need (if you have to really reach to do it) isn't smart in my opinion.