Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 We can't put much trust in football statistics, but we can't trust our eyes either. It's hard for us to be objective. Too often, we see on the field only what we want to see to prove our favorite theories. So, it's wise to verify what we think we see with stats if possible. Watching the NFL games over the years told me that pressuring the QB on defense and protecting the QB on offense were the most important factors in winning games in today's NFL but the stats didn't verify my theory. The sacks stats do not show a strong correlation to wins. That made no sense to me for a long time. Then, while watching the Steelers whip the Redskins 23-6 on Monday Night Football, I finally figured it out. The reason that the sacks stats seems to defy logic is that they do not account for the cost of those sacks. For example, a defense that records 30 sacks by rushing four is more effective than a defense that records 30 sacks by rushing five. An offense that allows 20 sacks while protecting with five is more effective than one allowing 20 sacks while protecting with six. The QB position is the most important in the game but OB pressure is the great equalizer. You can make a grade A quarterback perform like a grade C quarterback by applying sufficient pressure; and you can make a grade C quarterback perform like a grade A quarterback if you protect him well enough. However, the cost of applying the pressure and the cost of supplying the protection has to be weighed -- the fewer players that can be assigned to do the job well, the more effective the tactics will be. The burden of the pressure problem rides mostly on the shoulders of four players, two edge rushers and two offensive tackles. After the QB, edge rushers who have to be double-teamed, and OTs who don't need help in protection are a team's most valuable assets. ADDENDUM: In the Pro Football Prospectus for 2007 (pages 439-446) Aaron Schatz offers stats on sacks, hits and hurries collected from the 2006 season. Here are a few highlights: QBs completed just 37.7% of passes when knocked down during or after their throws. They completed just 34% when they were hurried. One of every 20 hurries turned into an interception. On a list of 45 QBs hurried in 2006 (sacks not included) some starting QBs handled pressure better than others: Romo sits to pee (#2) Roethlisberger (#3) P. Manning (#4) McNabb (#6) Brees (#11) Those that didn't handle pressure well in 2006 included: Palmer (#16) E. Manning (#19) Brady (#22) Campbell (#31) Brunell (#42) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbleedBnG83 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 It goes back to the term, the game is won in the trenches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shilsu Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 No surprises there, as the Minnesota Vikings were an example of this last year... They ranked well in terms of sacks but their pass defense sucked ass. Further research showed that most of their sacks were coming from everyone but the defensive line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morneblade Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Been saying this for years. You win the battle of the LOS you should win the game. Pressure = much more than sacks. They equal turnovers and a terrible completion % by the QB, resutling in many more 3 and outs. However bringing 7 guys to create it almost defeats the purpose. Which is why getting pressure with your front 4 makes a very average secondary look amazing. We have a very good secondary, but if we got pressure from our front 4 it would be by leaps and bounds the best in the NFL. Which is why I keep pusing for D-line help, and a DC that will actually ATTACK the QB. Getting another CB isnt going to really help us, getting DE's and DT that can collapse a pocket does so much more. That, and they also disrupt the LOS on running plays, where your secondary is much, much less of a factor. OF, for once, we are in complete agreement on something. I hope that the Universe doesnt implode because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 It goes back to the term, the game is won in the trenches. I understand how you could take that from what I wrote, but I'm trying to isolate something more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizSkins Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Always pressure and in the trenches, If you cant get pressure you might as well pack your bags for the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 No surprises there, as the Minnesota Vikings were an example of this last year... They ranked well in terms of sacks but their pass defense sucked ass. Further research showed that most of their sacks were coming from everyone but the defensive line. That team was built on an obsolete model: Run the football. Stop the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 OF, for once, we are in complete agreement on something. I hope that the Universe doesnt implode because of it. Oh hell. Now I have to go back and recheck my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbleedBnG83 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I understand how you could take that from what I wrote, but I'm trying to isolate something more specific. I realize that. Obviously JC has been successful when the pass protection has been solid. And the first bad game he has, he got sacked 7 times, aside from the tons of pressure. Inversely, we don't have many interceptions because of the lack of pass rush and Carlos Rogers hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheatorBeat Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I am surprised more teams haven't been able to apply more pressure on Campbell. It was proven in the pre-season that it is effective against us. Our offense falls apart with a little bit of a pass rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 I realize that. Obviously JC has been successful when the pass protection has been solid. And the first bad game he has, he got sacked 7 times, aside from the tons of pressure.Inversely, we don't have many interceptions because of the lack of pass rush and Carlos Rogers hands... Even when not pressured by the Steelers, Jason was wild high for the first time this year. My guess is that he was rushing things, an indirect effect of the pressure. This is probably something he will improve on with experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 I am surprised more teams haven't been able to apply more pressure on Campbell. It was proven in the pre-season that it is effective against us. Our offense falls apart with a little bit of a pass rush. My guess is that most teams are in the same boat we are. We're not all that great at applying pressure or in protecting the QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corrupt3d Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Been saying this for years. You win the battle of the LOS you should win the game. Pressure = much more than sacks. They equal turnovers and a terrible completion % by the QB, resutling in many more 3 and outs. However bringing 7 guys to create it almost defeats the purpose. Which is why getting pressure with your front 4 makes a very average secondary look amazing. We have a very good secondary, but if we got pressure from our front 4 it would be by leaps and bounds the best in the NFL.Which is why I keep pusing for D-line help, and a DC that will actually ATTACK the QB. Getting another CB isnt going to really help us, getting DE's and DT that can collapse a pocket does so much more. That, and they also disrupt the LOS on running plays, where your secondary is much, much less of a factor. OF, for once, we are in complete agreement on something. I hope that the Universe doesnt implode because of it. Honestly, what I feel like we're lacking pressure wise - both defending agaisnt it and providing it - is someone in the center. We have two good DE's who can force the QB up. We dont have a DT that can get to him - we've got three SOLID run-blockers. Offensively, we have one solid OT and one that can get teh job done, but a lot of pressure comes up the middle on us too. Not including the Steelers and the Giants game, most sacks came from the interior of the line. Thus I propose the solution: Alex Mack and a pass-rushing DT. Other than that, you're spot on OF - and I'm afraid to think of what levels of Hell had to freeze over for Morneblad to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 Honestly, what I feel like we're lacking pressure wise - both defending agaisnt it and providing it - is someone in the center. We have two good DE's who can force the QB up. We dont have a DT that can get to him - we've got three SOLID run-blockers. I'm not as high on our DEs as you are. I don't know how much Jason Taylor has left in the tank and Carter is just kinda average. As a top priority, I think we need an edge rushing stud out of the draft if we can find one without reaching too much. Offensively, we have one solid OT and one that can get teh job done, but a lot of pressure comes up the middle on us too. Not including the Steelers and the Giants game, most sacks came from the interior of the line. More teams are using three and five step drops. That pressure up the middle puts a crimp in those three step drops, but I don't see the middle as a top priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corrupt3d Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I'm not as high on our DEs as you are. I don't know how much Jason Taylor has left in the tank and Carter is just kinda average. As a top priority, I think we need a stud out of the draft if we can find one without reaching too much.More teams are using three and five step drops. That pressure up the middle puts a crimp in those three step drops, but I don't see the middle as a top priority. I wouldnt say Carter is average, but our DE's are effective in closing the pocket - they just can't get to the QB, which of course is a problem. Now, if you ahve the pocket close from all angles, getting to the QB wouldn't become as much of an issue. If I had a dollar every time we ALMOST had Romo sits to pee but he just side steps the inside pressure... As for the 3 to 5 step drops, I think this line would benefit with an upgrade at C, I love Rabach, but we need an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbleedBnG83 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I wouldnt say Carter is average, but our DE's are effective in closing the pocket - they just can't get to the QB, which of course is a problem. Now, if you ahve the pocket close from all angles, getting to the QB wouldn't become as much of an issue. If I had a dollar every time we ALMOST had Romo sits to pee but he just side steps the inside pressure...As for the 3 to 5 step drops, I think this line would benefit with an upgrade at C, I love Rabach, but we need an upgrade. Carter is defeinitely average. I like the guy, but he hasn't done much to think he isn't more than average. If he is not average, than what is average? Carter is on pace to get 4 sacks this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD.C RedskinsFan Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I don't know if this fits in anywhere but the pressure the Steelers got on Campbell definitely made me feel worse than us not getting to their QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 I don't know if this fits in anywhere but the pressure the Steelers got on Campbell definitely made me feel worse than us not getting to their QB. Jason didn't handle it very well, but I also got the feeling that he didn't get enough help from Zorn. You know, rollouts, boots, more shotgun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADF Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Yeah, we don't have a great OL when it comes to pass protection. We've been able to mitigate that problem in previous games with a strong run game that kept us out of long 3rd downs and kept defenses guessing. The Steelers were a bad matchup for us. They possessed the ability to stop our running game and their strength is their edge rushers. Samuels is banged up and a guy like Jansen isn't what he once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbleedBnG83 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Jason didn't handle it very well, but I also got the feeling that he didn't get enough help from Zorn. You know, rollouts, boots, more shotgun. Agreed. They looked unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 Yeah, we don't have a great OL when it comes to pass protection. We've been able to mitigate that problem in previous games with a strong run game that kept us out of long 3rd downs and kept defenses guessing. The Steelers were a bad matchup for us. They possessed the ability to stop our running game and their strength is their edge rushers. Samuels is banged up and a guy like Jansen isn't what he once was. Chris has been durable until now, but he might not be able to continue that way much longer. He had a torn MCL in 2003, another problem in the 2007 preseason, and may need offseason surgery. I don't know if it's the same R knee in all three or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDALERT Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Even when not pressured by the Steelers, Jason was wild high for the first time this year. My guess is that he was rushing things, an indirect effect of the pressure. This is probably something he will improve on with experience. Yes! But that experience has not kicked in yet and could cost us some key games this year if DC scheme right. From what I noticed about Jason Campbell is he gets uncomfortable when pressure is applied, but that's most QB's. But what Zorn started to teach Campbel to do a little more effective was to step up in the pocket and reload. Unfortunately, the Steelers DC IMO noticed that this was Campbells best asset he learned after the Saunders regime from Zorn. So, what I noticed during the Steelers game was they wasn't really rushing and attacking with the fronts from the edge, only on a few occassions. What the DC told the fronts to do was collaspe the pocket and keep Campbell from stepping up in the pocket. When the fronts started collasping the pocket and kept Campbell from stepping up. The Steelers DC then started bringing pressure with the edge rushers that totally threw our blocking scheme and our OL off course. Afterwards, everything started to collaspe with our OL because they had no idea what to look for (the collaspe or the edge rush). The problem was Zorn didn't adjust and just took it like a man and somewhat gave up toward the end (IMO). Why! because he probably realized just like some of us the fans he couldn't counter act toward the end. Taking Moss out and still leaving key players in was baffling. But reality set in and Zorn wanted the offense to force things that didn't work the entire game. When this happen, this forced Campbell to throw his 2nd interception trying to force the scheme that hadn't worked all game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Yes! But that experience has not kicked in yet and could cost us some key games this year if DC scheme right. Zorn will have to do better scheming against teams like the Giants who can pressure. I hope he has some better responses to pressure deeper into his playbook. Taking Moss out and still leaving key players in was baffling. My guess is that Santana, with his sore hammies, was only in there early as a decoy -- hoping the Steelers would spend a double team on him. That's a ploy with limited value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zCommander Posted November 8, 2008 Share Posted November 8, 2008 Question: Are you talking about how pressuring the QB can rattle a QB and you may lose a game because of it or are you really saying that JC is incapable of handling the pressure like say Romo sits to pee can? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Harris Posted November 8, 2008 Share Posted November 8, 2008 That team was built on an obsolete model: Run the football. Stop the run. i think you're nuts if you think the idea that you need to run the football and stop the run is obsolete or at all inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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