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NFC Playoff Odds through Week 11


UofMSkinsFan

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Contradiction:doh:

no, it's not a contradiction. they have both a chance to make the wild card and to win the conference. there are more scenerios in order for them to make the playoffs then there are for us.

hence...they have a better chance to make the playoffs

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no, it's not a contradiction. they have both a chance to make the wild card and to win the conference. there are more scenerios in order for them to make the playoffs then there are for us.

hence...they have a better chance to make the playoffs

Exactly. The website isn't slighting the Redskins by saying that the Cardinals are a better team and have a better chance of finishing with a better record. It's simply that they have a better chance of making the playoffs. A crappy record will win their division and put them in, while we have almost no legitmate shot at the division and are playing for a wild card; a wildcard that will have to be very high to compete with the Giants, Eagles, and Lions all of who are ahead of us at the moment. Arizona only needs to surpass one team to lock in as the minimum number 4 seed. We need to surplant 1 to lock in as the number 6. They seem to have a much safer bet.
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Here are the current weighted VOA's for the remaining opponents for both the Skins and Cardinals (higher numbers denote better weighted VOAs):

WAS (7.8%)

@TB (20.3%)

BUF (-2.2%)

CHI (-17.5%)

@NYG (11.9%)

@MIN (3.8%)

DAL (38.4%)

ARZ (-0.4%)

SF (-54.0%)

CLE (8.3%)

@SEA (8.1%)

@NO (-14.5%)

ATL (-22.3%)

STL (-32.0%)

AVG for Skins' opponents: 9.1% (9th hardest remaining schedule in NFL)

AVG for Ariz's opponents: -17.7% (easiest remaining schedule in NFL!)

Ouch.

These numbers clearly indicate that the reason this analysis thinks the Cardinals have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Skins is due to schedule, not the quality of the teams themselves. Indeed, the stats suggest the Skins are definitely the better team (7.8% vs. -0.4%). Nevertheless, if we beat TB on Sunday, things should change significantly.

This is a big, big game.

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I will say this...

Assuming Dallas and Greenbay are the top two seeds in the NFC and the two other divisional winners are Tampa and Seattle. All four of these teams would rather see the Cardinals and Lions as wildcards, than the Giants and Redskins. That's for sure!

totally agree if greenbay or dallas play the cardinals or lions in the divisional round its a cakewalk to the nfc championship game.

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I posted in another thread that I think Seattle is our competition for the #6 seed. I really believe AZ will win the West which would drop Seattle to a wild card and since we don't play Seattle, our conference record will come into play...

Which is the reason why we have to root for the seahawks to win. With that said, I think a 4-2 the rest of the way will get us in even though I believe we will go 5-1 the rest of the way. I really believe it.

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