UofMSkinsFan Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Here are the odds of the top NFC teams making the playoffs based on this analysis: 1. Dallas (99.9%) 2. Green Bay (99.9%) 3. Tampa Bay (97.5%) 4. New York (85.6%) 5. Seattle (81.1%) 6. Arizona (54%) 7. Washington (25%) 8. Philadelphia (18.1%) 9. Detroit (13.8%) 10. New Orleans (9.2%) 11. Minnesota (8.6%) So despite the fact that we have the same record as Arizona and beat them head-to-head, DVOA thinks they're likely to end up with a better record than the Skins and make the playoffs. Here's the remaining schedule for both teams: WAS @TB BUF CHI @NYG @MIN DAL ARZ SF CLE @SEA @NO ATL STL I think Arizona is a lock to win 3 more, and quite likely 4. Given that we have very tough remaining games against Dallas and at the Giants, this week's game against TB is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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