UofMSkinsFan Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Here are the odds of the top NFC teams making the playoffs based on this analysis: 1. Dallas (99.9%) 2. Green Bay (99.9%) 3. Tampa Bay (97.5%) 4. New York (85.6%) 5. Seattle (81.1%) 6. Arizona (54%) 7. Washington (25%) 8. Philadelphia (18.1%) 9. Detroit (13.8%) 10. New Orleans (9.2%) 11. Minnesota (8.6%) So despite the fact that we have the same record as Arizona and beat them head-to-head, DVOA thinks they're likely to end up with a better record than the Skins and make the playoffs. Here's the remaining schedule for both teams: WAS @TB BUF CHI @NYG @MIN DAL ARZ SF CLE @SEA @NO ATL STL I think Arizona is a lock to win 3 more, and quite likely 4. Given that we have very tough remaining games against Dallas and at the Giants, this week's game against TB is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I'd kill for Arizona's schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symbol Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 It's a sad day when the Browns are the tough team on your schedule. Not taking anything away from the Browns, they are a good team this year, but it's just a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins Diehard Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I think a a very "doable" 4-2 finish puts us in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backpack3r Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 yeah arizona is ahead of us simply because of an easier schedule. We just gotta hope we tie them, I already know the Lions arent going to make it in, so it comes down to Cardinals and Bucs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sens11 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I'd kill for Arizona's schedule. me too. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passizle Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 The only "gimmie" win on AZ'z schedule is the Niners. CLE is a damn good team now. @SEA is a tough place to play and they are on a roll @NO has been playing well and it on the road. AZ is not a good road team. ATL this could be a win too, but they have been pulling surprises out of their butts and I dont think AZ i s strong enough to through them without a fight. STL Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce. If we were able to pass well on them. The Rams will have a field day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cuchip703 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 yeah arizona is ahead of us simply because of an easier schedule. We just gotta hope we tie them, I already know the Lions arent going to make it in, so it comes down to Cardinals and Bucs Actually, the Bucs will be in because they win the division. We need to catch/or stay ahead of Ariz, Philly, Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunBunch7 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I posted in another thread that I think Seattle is our competition for the #6 seed. I really believe AZ will win the West which would drop Seattle to a wild card and since we don't play Seattle, our conference record will come into play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnhay Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 The only "gimmie" win on AZ'z schedule is the Niners.CLE is a damn good team now. @SEA is a tough place to play and they are on a roll @NO has been playing well and it on the road. AZ is not a good road team. ATL this could be a win too, but they have been pulling surprises out of their butts and I dont think AZ i s strong enough to through them without a fight. STL Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce. If we were able to pass well on them. The Rams will have a field day. They're not gimmies because it's Arizona, but that schedule can't get much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarrellGreenFan Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 NYG isn't a lock for the paloffs- they could be supplanted with this schedule: MIN @CHI @PHI WAS @BUF NE With the exception of MIN, those are some tough games, and so if we beat them the Giants could easily finish at 9-7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Combatant Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I don't think the Dallas game is going to be much of a challenge unless home field advantage is still up in the air for them. I can see them sitting their starters this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forever21 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 'Zona has a perfect schedule left for this time of year. We absolutely have to win our next three. We can afford to lose to the Giants only if we plan on beating Dallas in week 17, which I think is a lock because Dallas will have nothing to play for. We can go 5-1 the rest of the way if we play like we can. However if we drop one more game 'we should win' then it's all over for our playoff hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFan Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 'We can afford to lose to the Giants only if we plan on beating Dallas in week 17, which I think is a lock because Dallas will have nothing to play for. My impression is that Wade won't rest his starters on the last game. He seems to appreciate the rivalries Dallas has. I just don't think he'll take his foot off the pedal unless the game is put away. TheFan edit: petal...pedal...whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9_to_42_td Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 We need to take care of our own business and not worry about anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKINS FAN #56 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 We could've easily been the #3 or probably even #2 seed. I think we'll make the playoffs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgitta Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 We need to take care of our own business and not worry about anyone else. Awesome quote. Did you just make that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meek Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 The Cards win 2 of those games. They win against SF and against ATL. Maybe they sneak out a 3rd win somewhere in there against NO or STL, but no way do I see them going 4-2 in that stretch. We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyburd Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 5-1 or we are DONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Combatant Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 5-1 or we are DONE I couldn't think of anything to rhyme with 6-0 either:laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forever21 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Looking at that again has made me realize just how sad the NFC is right now. I mean honestly do you tak anyone except Dallas seriously? I know GB is 9-1 but I still don't buy them as being for real. TB, Det, NYG, Zona...and probably us...would all be buried in the AFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meek Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Looking at that again has made me realize just how sad the NFC is right now. I mean honestly do you tak anyone except Dallas seriously? I know GB is 9-1 but I still don't buy them as being for real. TB, Det, NYG, Zona...and probably us...would all be buried in the AFC. What makes you so quick to buy the cowgirls as legitimate? I'd take the Steelers, Colts and Jaguars all over Dallas. As far as the NFC, I think we go 4-2 down the final stretch but 3-3 will be good enough to get in the postseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
909997 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I couldn't think of anything to rhyme with 6-0 either:laugh: 6 and 0 because Romo sits to pee is a homo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 What makes you so quick to buy the cowgirls as legitimate? I'd take the Steelers, Colts and Jaguars all over Dallas. As far as the NFC, I think we go 4-2 down the final stretch but 3-3 will be good enough to get in the postseason. I know you probably just aren't stating the obvious, but aren't you leaving out a certain 800 lb. gorilla from your list of AFC teams that are better than the Cowboys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gstahl Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Interesting the last game versus Dallas. Wonder if Dallas will rest their starters for the playoffs, depending on what happens with GB I would think they might have home field locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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