The Gibbs Ver. 1.0 "Halftime Adjustments Genius": Myth or Fact?

[Leonard Washington]

I'll have to dig through some old threads, but I showed last year that we lost games in the 3rd quarter.

not just last year but previous years as well.

2004 skins outscored 39 points. only two games we outscored the opponents in the third.

2005 skins outscore opponents by 15 points. in pretty much every game we won, we outscored the opposition in the 3rd quarter.

2006 skins outscored by 40 points. the second philly game we outscored them by 10 and still lost.

2007 We've been outscored by 3 points. we outscored miami, tied philly in the third and we won both games.

According to Elias, since 2004 the Redskins have 11 losses when leading at the half, which puts them ... worst in the NFL. Oakland (11) and Houston (10) are the only other teams with double-digit loss totals when leading at the half since Gibbs came back to the NFL.

It seems that either we just aren't conditioned enough to last 4 quarters or the coaching staff can't figure out what to do. I think its more of the latter. The offensive coaching staff has proven they can't figure out what to do in crunch time, i doubt they can make massive adjustments in 15 minutes. unfortunately the only two constants in this scenario are GW and Gibbs. GW should hold down the fort better but the offense putting up zero points and going 3 and out in the third rarely helps.

we need to be more like the dominant chicago bulls teams. if you can jump on the opposition in the third, you are more likely to win games. it's not always about how you start, it's about how you finish.

[radagast5]

the big question would be, how many times did we go into the 3rd quarter losing, and come back to win? or vice versa.

In Gibbs 1.0:

41 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

17 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

In Gibbs 2.0

8 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

14 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

[Dan T.]

In Gibbs 1.0:

41 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

17 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

In Gibbs 2.0

8 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

14 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

So it is NOT a myth. Thank you.

[BraveWarrior]

So it is NOT a myth. Thank you.

Guess not. But then, what does that say about Gibbs' ability to manage a game and make halftime adjustments now? Where did he lose the ability to do this?

[radagast5]

So it is NOT a myth. Thank you.

You're welcome. And, again, there's no context here. Comparing that 41 second half comebacks stat to the NFL average during that timeframe would make the stat more useful, but I certainly don't have time to crunch those numbers!

And I did want to point out that I wasn't directly challenging it as if I doubted the claim were true, I just wondered what the real stats were. What might be more interesting is to determine in those second half comebacks, did the opponent score less in the second half than they did in the first. In other words, was the comeback fueled by better Redskin offense, or better Redskin defense? Who was the genius, Gibbs or Petitbon?

[radagast5]

Guess not. But then, what does that say about Gibbs' ability to manage a game and make halftime adjustments now? Where did he lose the ability to do this?

Maybe the ability was never his. Maybe it was Petitbon's?

You might be able to gain *some* insight to that question by seeing if those second half comebacks were a product of the Redskins just completely outscoring the opponent, or if the Redskins' defense really shut the opponent down. It's incredibly difficult to determine this just by looking at 20-year-old box scores.

[radagast5]

Guess not. But then, what does that say about Gibbs' ability to manage a game and make halftime adjustments now? Where did he lose the ability to do this?

After glancing at the 41 games that the Redskins came from behind at halftime (during Gibbs' first tenure), something interesting arises.

---24 times, the Redskins defense held the opponent to 3 points or less in the second half, including 17 second-half shutouts.

Out of those 41 games, seven times it was the offense which clearly turned the game around and won it. Nine times, it was mostly the defense that won it. The remainder was some combination thereof.

Perhaps this inability to adjust at the half isn't so much of Gibbs 2 being worse than Gibbs 1, but of Gregg Williams not being as good as Richie Petitbon.

[terpskins]

In Gibbs 1.0:

41 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

17 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

In Gibbs 2.0

8 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

14 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

The reversal is just sad. Says a lot about our coaching.

[PCRoughrider]

I dread halftime for this Gibbs incarnation because it doesn't usually make us better. The other team will almost always make better adjustments.

[DixieFlatline]

In Gibbs 1.0:

41 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

17 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

In Gibbs 2.0

8 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

14 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

Where did you find the box scores for 1981 and 1982? I found them back to 1983, but not those two years.

[Oldfan]

It occurs to me that these stats might prove nothing except that the better the team, the more likely it is to win the second half. Like, duh.

[Mark The Homer]

Where did you find the box scores for 1981 and 1982? I found them back to 1983, but not those two years.

http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/teams.nsf/histories/redskins

[TomE]

It occurs to me that these stats might prove nothing except that the better the team, the more likely it is to win the second half. Like, duh.

Ya reckon? :laugh:

[DixieFlatline]

http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/teams.nsf/histories/redskins

Yeah, I looked there, but didn't find boxscores prior to 1996. This website had them back to 1983. http://www.databasefootball.com/teams/teampage.htm?tm=was&lg=nfl

[mcarey032]

To be honest, there were other factors that went into it as well. Such as the fact that the richie petibon was a great d coordinator who did make adjustments accordingly. Also, Wayne Sevier(Spelling) was also great. Not say that is the reason that we are not successful, but when you have great assistant coaches that you can continually rely on, there can be trust and the ability to take risks in change. It seems to me that there is a little reluctance to take risks with the current team.

[radagast5]

Where did you find the box scores for 1981 and 1982? I found them back to 1983, but not those two years.

I'll PM you the link. I'd post it here, but the mods would delete it. Long story short: the database I employed as a reference tool used to be on this site a couple years ago. Something happened and it disappeared under some less than classy circumstances, and a lot of hard work got pilfered in the process.

[Seabee1973]

A fun read. Look a fake punt by Gibbs in the 2nd half!

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/football/cowboys/classic/recordbook/yearbyyear/1991/091091redskins.html

We had a reciever named Jimmie Johnson?

[Seabee1973]

In Gibbs 1.0:

41 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

17 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

In Gibbs 2.0

8 times the Redskins were tied or losing at halftime and won.

14 times the Redskins were tied or winning at halftime and lost.

Tell me I am missing something here but but in Gibbs first go around there was 140 some games and we were either tied, losing or winning them at halftime of all of them

[SkinsHokieFan]

We had a reciever named Jimmie Johnson?

A big TE number 88

He was basically Mike Sellars back then, big guy who caught TD's in the redzone

The TE's on that squad were great, Don Warren, Ron Middleton, Jimmie Johnson, and Terry Orr

[radagast5]

Tell me I am missing something here but but in Gibbs first go around there was 140 some games and we were either tied, losing or winning them at halftime of all of them

Uh, yes, at halftime the Redskins (and all teams) are either tied, losing, or winning. Not sure what you're asking here.

My point was that 41 times (during Gibbs 1.0), the Skins overcame a halftime tie/deficit and won. 17 times the opponents overcame a halftime tie/deficit. The remainder of the time, whomever was leading at halftime won.

[Seabee1973]

Uh, yes, at halftime the Redskins (and all teams) are either tied, losing, or winning. Not sure what you're asking here.

My point was that 41 times (during Gibbs 1.0), the Skins overcame a halftime tie/deficit and won. 17 times the opponents overcame a halftime tie/deficit. The remainder of the time, whomever was leading at halftime won.

To me the way you worded it does not sound right.