CJ vs. Adams/Anderson = Reggie Bush vs. Mario

[Morneblade]

I know it's gonna hurt everyone's feelings to say, but if there is any FO that will give up future picks to get the player they want (whether for veterans or to move up in the draft), it's the Redskins.

And when you look at it, we've done ok with that philosophy. We may have some missteps (Brunell, Lloyd), but without that philosophy we wouldn't have JC, Cooley, or Portis.

Thing is, we probably didnt have to trade up to get JC or Cooley.

[Morneblade]

You made a good example with Golston. He did show promise last year and he was a late rounder. I just don't think that they want to pick up a DL that early in the draft. Even if we don't get CJ I still don't think we go DL at 6. Probably will end up going with Landry or hopefully trade down and get Okoye and Meriweather in the 2nd. I just don't see a DL worth a #6. Our offense finished 14th cause of the running game more than anything. Passing the ball was still not that effective. The D will bounce back with or without a DL picked at #6.

I dont see how the D "bounces" back. The D-line is old and brittle and that isnt going to get any better. The passing should improve. JC showed improvements in every game last year. It's a pretty safe bet, with a year in the system, a year to work with the starters that he doesnt get better. Plus, he'll get to play with Portis. The offense should be a top 10 one without CJ.

The D-line will just be older.

[Skin Patrol]

You made a good example with Golston. He did show promise last year and he was a late rounder. I just don't think that they want to pick up a DL that early in the draft. Even if we don't get CJ I still don't think we go DL at 6. Probably will end up going with Landry or hopefully trade down and get Okoye and Meriweather in the 2nd. I just don't see a DL worth a #6. Our offense finished 14th cause of the running game more than anything. Passing the ball was still not that effective. The D will bounce back with or without a DL picked at #6.

I admire your optimism but I don't think the Defense will just "bounce back" without personnel changes. To give you a sense of how I feel, would you believe me if I said the Offense will finish #1 in the league with or without Calvin Johnson? Presumably you'd request I justify that assertion with some reasons.

Okoye will not be available in the 2nd round.

I think our defense will improve next year merely due to a regression towards the mean, but what does that mean? "Improvement" for this defense means, at a minimum, we finish 30th in the league. That's not going to win us very many games.

I feel like I've accurately identified the shortcoming of the '06 defense. We have an aging front four that does not get at the QB. Drafting Calvin Johnson doesn't fix that at all. Griffin and Daniels and Salave'a and Wynn are all a year older and slower.

I think we both agree that trading down is the best of all available options. It gives us additional day one picks and still lets us make a play (without reaching) at a quality starting DE or DT.

[SkinsManNJ]

I dont see how the D "bounces" back. The D-line is old and brittle and that isnt going to get any better. The passing should improve. JC showed improvements in every game last year. It's a pretty safe bet, with a year in the system, a year to work with the starters that he doesnt get better. Plus, he'll get to play with Portis. The offense should be a top 10 one without CJ.

The D-line will just be older.

So bringing in a DL at #6 will make our DL much younger right? No it won't and chances are he won't even get to start over one of those old men. I see them bouncing back because they will be rotated a little more and lessen the chance of injury, even though it could happen any givin play. DL will be addressed this year and next year along with OL and LB. I just don't see any of these DL being take at #6 by us. They have to many flaws for our coaching staff. If they do ill be a surprised but not dissappointed. On offense we have noone that is a real threat in the redzone. We can't run it all the time. Maybe we don't get CJ and pickup a player of his size to use but I doubt that to. So don't be upset if we get CJ.

[SkinsManNJ]

I admire your optimism but I don't think the Defense will just "bounce back" without personnel changes. To give you a sense of how I feel, would you believe me if I said the Offense will finish #1 in the league with or without Calvin Johnson? Presumably you'd request I justify that assertion with some reasons.

Okoye will not be available in the 2nd round.

I think our defense will improve next year merely due to a regression towards the mean, but what does that mean? "Improvement" for this defense means, at a minimum, we finish 30th in the league. That's not going to win us very many games.

I feel like I've accurately identified the shortcoming of the '06 defense. We have an aging front four that does not get at the QB. Drafting Calvin Johnson doesn't fix that at all. Griffin and Daniels and Salave'a and Wynn are all a year older and slower.

I think we both agree that trading down is the best of all available options. It gives us additional day one picks and still lets us make a play (without reaching) at a quality starting DE or DT.

Never said anything about Okoye being the 2nd round. If we don't get CJ I would like to move down and get Okoye and in the 2nd round pick up Meriweather. So yes we do agree on moving down. If we are forced to pick at #6 then how will one DL make our like younger. Just by one player? I don't think so. With what we agreed upon is the only viable way to pick up 2 top tier DL.

CJ may not fix our aging Dline but does having one DL in the first do that either? No it doesn't but it is a start. Now if we pick CJ then in our 2nd day we wil pick up the DL we need to make our line younger.

[Skin Patrol]

Never said anything about Okoye being the 2nd round.

I misunderstood you and it was my fault. Sorry about that.

If we are forced to pick at #6 then how will one DL make our like younger. Just by one player?

Absolutely. Drafting young players is the quickest means of making a team younger. If you know of a more effective method, I'm all ears. Drafting a DE to supplant Phillip Daniels would instantly make the Defensive Line a decade younger; Daniels is 34 years old. His replacement would be Jamaal Anderson (21? 22? 23 at most?) or Adams (22? 23 at most?).

It is impossible to make the DL younger without replacing older players with younger ones. This is because all human beings have this frustrating tendency of always getting older and never growing younger. I hate it. The longer you wait to address the age issue on our Defensive Line, the worse off we'll be. Phillip Daniels and Cornelius Griffin are both well past their prime. Daniels peaked six years ago, Griffin peaked in 2004. It is a safe bet that both will be less effective in '07 than they were in '06. If we haven't replaced both of them by '08, we're in very bad shape.

CJ may not fix our aging Dline but does having one DL in the first do that either? No it doesn't but it is a start. Now if we pick CJ then in our 2nd day we wil pick up the DL we need to make our line younger.

We had five 2nd day draft picks last year. 4 of them failed to supplant the starters they joined at their respective positions. Kedric Golston was the exception, and he replaced Joe Salave'a (the lesser of our two DTs). Kili Lefotu never saw any PT. Reed Doughty never threatened for starting PT. I don't even think Kevin Simon is on the team anymore.

We had four 2nd day draft picks in 2005. Three of them are no longer with the team. Only Nehemiah Broughton remains, and he hasn't done anything for the team.

We had two 2nd day draft picks in 2004. Neither is with the team.

We had one 2nd day draft pick in 2003. He's no longer with the team.

I'm not trying to devalue 2nd day picks as I think they're important for depth and for finding that diamond in the rough. Part of our failure on day 2 has simply been that we don't have a lot of picks in general and thus haven't been able to capitalize on it. What I am trying to point out is that it is naive and empirically suspect to presume that a 2nd day draft pick is an immediate starter. You use the 2nd day of the draft to get depth and hope. You use the 1st day of the draft to get either starters or specialists. If we draft DEs in round 4, 5, 6, 6 again, and 7, and none of them manage to move past Renaldo Wynn, Andre Carter, Demetrick Evans, or Phillip Daniels on the depth chart, than our line isn't any "younger" because none of those guys even see the field. More than likely they all get cut.

Cornelius Griffin and Phillip Daniels are not replaceable with 2nd day draft picks or, if they are, we're really gambling on that fact. If you're serious about a youth movement at those positions, and if you're serious about building a persistent defensive threat, than we need to devote Day One resources to those positions.

[SkinsManNJ]

I misunderstood you and it was my fault. Sorry about that.

Absolutely. Drafting young players is the quickest means of making a team younger. If you know of a more effective method, I'm all ears. Drafting a DE to supplant Phillip Daniels would instantly make the Defensive Line a decade younger; Daniels is 34 years old. His replacement would be Jamaal Anderson (21? 22? 23 at most?) or Adams (22? 23 at most?).

It is impossible to make the DL younger without replacing older players with younger ones. This is because all human beings have this frustrating tendency of always getting older and never growing younger. I hate it. The longer you wait to address the age issue on our Defensive Line, the worse off we'll be. Phillip Daniels and Cornelius Griffin are both well past their prime. Daniels peaked six years ago, Griffin peaked in 2004. It is a safe bet that both will be less effective in '07 than they were in '06. If we haven't replaced both of them by '08, we're in very bad shape.

We had five 2nd day draft picks last year. 4 of them failed to supplant the starters they joined at their respective positions. Kedric Golston was the exception, and he replaced Joe Salave'a (the lesser of our two DTs). Kili Lefotu never saw any PT. Reed Doughty never threatened for starting PT. I don't even think Kevin Simon is on the team anymore.

We had four 2nd day draft picks in 2005. Three of them are no longer with the team. Only Nehemiah Broughton remains, and he hasn't done anything for the team.

We had two 2nd day draft picks in 2004. Neither is with the team.

We had one 2nd day draft pick in 2003. He's no longer with the team.

I'm not trying to devalue 2nd day picks as I think they're important for depth and for finding that diamond in the rough. Part of our failure on day 2 has simply been that we don't have a lot of picks in general and thus haven't been able to capitalize on it. What I am trying to point out is that it is naive and empirically suspect to presume that a 2nd day draft pick is an immediate starter. You use the 2nd day of the draft to get depth and hope. You use the 1st day of the draft to get either starters or specialists. If we draft DEs in round 4, 5, 6, 6 again, and 7, and none of them manage to move past Renaldo Wynn, Andre Carter, Demetrick Evans, or Phillip Daniels on the depth chart, than our line isn't any "younger" because none of those guys even see the field. More than likely they all get cut.

Cornelius Griffin and Phillip Daniels are not replaceable with 2nd day draft picks or, if they are, we're really gambling on that fact. If you're serious about a youth movement at those positions, and if you're serious about building a persistent defensive threat, than we need to devote Day One resources to those positions.

By no means do I disagree with you on that front. But my thing is unfortunately we only have 1 first day pick. So with that pick its either pay a rookie DL who might not even beat out the old men vs. a playmaker who can boost our offense further than #14. Trust me I REALLY wish we had not even gave up our 4th for T.J. Suckit. He was a complete waste of a trade. He didnt know how to hit the holes he just looked lost in the offense even on basic runs. I mean I really wish we had more picks this year or at least a 2nd and 3rd or even a 4th. But we dont so I just feel that CJ is worth more for trading up than for any of the DL in the draft right now. It just seems that we will take our DE and DT's on the 2nd day. But also if we are to bring up these 2nd day draftee's then our coaching has to be good enough to make them game ready.

[SkinsManNJ]

Do any of these DL have more buzz than Mario Williams, or talent? Maybe just as much if not less. But either way we will have to pick more DL on the 2nd day. Mario put up far from great numbers as a rookie he may make those numbers look null and void this season but as for immediate impact that wasn't there. Being that none of these top DL have more or that much more talent than the overall #1 pick last year, tells me that we just might be better of drafting Landry or Johnson. Cause no matter what we are going to draft DL in the late rounds or even the undrafted players. So maybe just maybe a DL in the first round unless we trade down wont be worth the 6th pick. I agree we need to get younger on the DL but we will take that chance on DL in the 5th 6th and 7th most likely. No matter who we take in the 1st round.

[SkinsFanInAlaska]

Last year, I thought the Texans did the wise thing by trying to build their defense with a cornerstone DE. I'm a big fan of defense. As good as Bush was, I felt HOU already had a RB (prior to learning about Dominick's injury) and some other offensive talent, but the defense needed a dominant force to put pressure on Peyton and Leftwich.

A year later and people are still laughing at me for saying that. I don't think that anyone would argue that the Texans blew it by not going for Bush. Now I think the Skins are in a similar situation. I know it's slightly different because we have to make the decision to move up or stand pat, but essentially, the choice is how important is CJ versus a DL.

No DL is as talented a prospect as Mario was last year. CJ is as talented as Bush and really has less question marks. People questioned how strong Bush was and his durability. CJ is nearly as fast as Bush (Combine time) and way bigger.

For anyone that says we are set at receiver cannot truly argue that we have a better situation than the Texans did at that time. Dominick was Rookie of the Year, had posted consecutive 1000 yard seasons, was their most consistent offensive threat, and had just signed a contract extension. On the other side of the coin, the Saints were set at RB as well and we see how Bush's presence opened up their offense. The logical pick for their situation would have been AJ Hawk (who was also considered a better defensive prospect than any of this year's DL) The Saints going into last season looked a lot less talented than the Skins and they ended up going to the NFC Championship Game with a less talented defense than what we currently have.

To sum it up, when you have a chance at a playmaker like Bush or CJ, you can't pass it up for a good defender. I don't want the Skins to look back at the end of the year and talk about how the FO blew a chance to get CJ like Houston blew their chance. If Bush could take the Saints from the second worst record in football to the NFC Championship Game, CJ has the potential to take an underperforming, but talented Skins team to the Bowl.

Bush didn't make the saints that much better.....they had a new coach who knows how to utilize his offence, i lioved in new orleans for 10 years (til damn katrine took us out) and i watched them play.....year after year the coaches blew it......reggie bush did help yes, but dont say he changed that record.....oh yea and a pro bowler by the name of drew brees.....

[[[ghost]]]

Ummm, CJ's career has been followed since his ACC Freshmen of the Year campaign. He didn't just pop out of nowhere. There maybe be another great prospect at the WR position next year but it may not be for another 2-3 years. He is special believe it or not, he doesn't project the same way Charles Rogers and Mike Williams did. David Patten was just released and Lloyd is going into a season where he has to prove whether or not he can get the job done. Either way, wherever CJ goes he will make an impact. The question is, don't want that impact playing on the other sideline for Jon Gruden when we visit them November 19, 2007. And who says you can't rebuild your team's defense AND offense simultaneously.

You need two things in order to do that. Draft picks, and money. We don't have that many draft picks, thus we need to rebuild that which is more damaged, which is defense. Second, we have money, and we did spend it on the defense, to help shore up other weaknesses. MLB and back up CBs were addressed.

[Veretax]

see your missing my point. Yeah 14 is in the top half of the league, barely, but you assume campbell is going to progress (I assume he is too, but I think CJ makes that progression further insured). If you think that leaving the defensive line without a draft pick this year is going to make us fall further, why would that not be the case on the Oline. We had injures to portis, brunnel played hurt for a while, moss was out for a time, Jansen was hobbled, and I think Samuels had some minor injury for a while too but fought through it.

I'm telling you if the logic is that our D can't improve without a guy, then why is it a stretch to think our Offense could regress next year without CJ? I don't think that is a stretch at all.

The question then becomes which would regress more, and which would give more value for the pick to improve that unit. ANd that to me is a debatable discussion on both sides.

If we can't get CJ, then so be it, our course is set to draft Defense, but if we can, why not go up draft him and be set at that position long term. I understand why folks want landry, but we just got taylor and rogers, Springs may be banged up but we got smoot back, If you think Landry is that good to take, why not CJ?

[Streater101]

Dominic Davis was obviously not the answer for that franchise. I hardly call that a working example as to why we should move up to take a WR when our front 4 has been medioccre for the last decade.

And for the record, I felt that the Texans should have taken Brick.

[Muzzah]

I really think CJ at WR will help us way down the road, and next year too!

Then JC and CJ can become two young studs at QB and WR with Moss and CJ on the outside, Cooley at TE, and Randle El in the slot.

Dont get me wrong, DLine is needed too, but I think we could pick someone up late® that would be able to learn GW's system. Not necessarily a big name playmaker but rather one of those players that do their job well and allow the scheme to function.

[atloldskin]

You are dreaming if CJ is available with the #6 pick.