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Anderson/Springs vs Bly/Daniels


SkinsBoss

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I understand the thought process, but I say we enjoy the luxury of having the #6 pick and assume that we won't have a pick that high for a long time...

So far we have all of our draft picks next year except a 4th rounder I think... I hope we try with what we have this year (keep Springs) and fill needs with 1-3 year contracts through FA, and then use all of our draft picks in the coming years to keep us young... no reason to pass on a potential game changer so we can fill multiple needs this year when in the long run we get all the rookies we can handle (if we really have changed our ways) from next year on....

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And the majority of the top 10 get payed twice as much as the rest of the 1st round, so a team like Washington that has more than just one hole would get hurt way more taking a chance on someone that is still a mystery despite his immense skill.

Not only that, but I wasn't just mentioning late round guys. I just used Brady because he is the best example of people outside the first round. But the fact is you can still get LOTS of starter talent in the late 1st round. In fact, most of the best players in the NFL tend to get picked up mid-1st to mid-2nd.

Ok so it should simply be a money based decision then? And pretty much EVERY team has more than one hole to fill. That certainly doesn't stop them from using their high 1st round pick if they have one. I could understand trading down this far if we had a high quality group of guys on the DL who got a great pass rush, but when one of them was injured we didn't have anyone to step in and we started to suck. We began the season sucking at it and ended it sucking at it. We don't need a few guys who are, more likely than not, going to be mostly space fillers or maybe "good" players. We need an impact player to help with a pass rush. I think this stuff is mostly a knee jerk reaction to us being stupid before and giving away draft picks. We need to calm down and have patience. Hopefully we won't have a pick this high again any time soon. IMO we should use it while we have it.

As far as the most of the best players thing, I'd say there are quite a few of the best players who were also on the upper side of the 1st round as well. Again, look at the numbers (we'll use your assumption that there are more great current players that come from outside of the top 10 than inside. We'll use a generous 3/1 ratio in your favor). Top 10 every year obviously = 10 guys. Rest of the draft = 213 guys. So lets say you have 3 of the top 10 guys that turn out to be great players. That is 1 great player for about every 3.3. This translates out to about a 30% chance. Then lets say you have 9 guys out of the remaining 213 that end up being great players. That is 1 great player per (approximately) 23.7 players which works out to a 4.2% chance that you'll get one of those great players with one pick. So you say "But wait! We could have 3 though!" Indeed. That would raise it up to a whopping 12.6% chance to get one of those great players compared to having 1 top 10 pick and having a 30% chance of getting one.

I think I'd rather take the #6 pick, thanks. Then next year when we have a full draft, stock up on depth guys.

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Ok so it should simply be a money based decision then? And pretty much EVERY team has more than one hole to fill. That certainly doesn't stop them from using their high 1st round pick if they have one. I could understand trading down this far if we had a high quality group of guys on the DL who got a great pass rush, but when one of them was injured we didn't have anyone to step in and we started to suck. We began the season sucking at it and ended it sucking at it. We don't need a few guys who are, more likely than not, going to be mostly space fillers or maybe "good" players. We need an impact player to help with a pass rush. I think this stuff is mostly a knee jerk reaction to us being stupid before and giving away draft picks. We need to calm down and have patience. Hopefully we won't have a pick this high again any time soon. IMO we should use it while we have it.

As far as the most of the best players thing, I'd say there are quite a few of the best players who were also on the upper side of the 1st round as well. Again, look at the numbers (we'll use your assumption that there are more great current players that come from outside of the top 10 than inside. We'll use a generous 3/1 ratio in your favor). Top 10 every year obviously = 10 guys. Rest of the draft = 213 guys. So lets say you have 3 of the top 10 guys that turn out to be great players. That is 1 great player for about every 3.3. This translates out to about a 30% chance. Then lets say you have 9 guys out of the remaining 213 that end up being great players. That is 1 great player per (approximately) 23.7 players which works out to a 4.2% chance that you'll get one of those great players with one pick. So you say "But wait! We could have 3 though!" Indeed. That would raise it up to a whopping 12.6% chance to get one of those great players compared to having 1 top 10 pick and having a 30% chance of getting one.

I think I'd rather take the #6 pick, thanks. Then next year when we have a full draft, stock up on depth guys.

You seem to be confusing late 1st round guys with 7th round guys which I am not. OF COURSE there is a difference between a DT in the 1st and a DT in the 7th, but there is NOT that big a difference between #6 and #15-30.

Not only that but your math makes no sense. The Redskins would get 3 more picks IN THE TOP 3 ROUNDS. You would then have to subtract all the 4th-7th round picks. Thats over half the draft.

And last I checked, people who drafted #10-32 aren't just "looking for depth guys", they also look for starters. Brees was in the 2nd round, and he panned out better than Tim Couch.

I never said it should all be on money, but if you have to give a guy big money and they have ANY downsides, you should weigh your options, and getting a former pro bowler at a position you would want depth, along with 2 extra picks while only moving down the draft is an excellent deal.

I still don't get why so many people fall in love with all of the top 10 guys and automatically assume the others won't be as good.

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You seem to be confusing late 1st round guys with 7th round guys which I am not. OF COURSE there is a difference between a DT in the 1st and a DT in the 7th, but there is NOT that big a difference between #6 and #15-30.

Not only that but your math makes no sense. The Redskins would get 3 more picks IN THE TOP 3 ROUNDS. You would then have to subtract all the 4th-7th round picks. Thats over half the draft.

And last I checked, people who drafted #10-32 aren't just "looking for depth guys", they also look for starters. Brees was in the 2nd round, and he panned out better than Tim Couch.

I never said it should all be on money, but if you have to give a guy big money and they have ANY downsides, you should weigh your options, and getting a former pro bowler at a position you would want depth, along with 2 extra picks while only moving down the draft is an excellent deal.

I still don't get why so many people fall in love with all of the top 10 guys and automatically assume the others won't be as good.

Sorry but you were the one who brought up Brady originally, who was a 6th round pick, so I didn't think you were doing much distinguishing. You mentioned later rounds earlier which I took to mean all later rounds. Ok so we have 3 picks between #21 and #80 (that is figuring we got an amazing deal and got their 2nd and 3rd rounder also). Lets say your 1st round guy at #21 is decent but not great and can rotate in a starting lineup. Sorry, but I don't really see any DEs or DTs at that spot who clearly have the potential to dominate. Moss, Tyler, Abiamiri, Moses, Johnson. All of them lack either speed or size (or both in Moses' case). So we have the 2nd and 3rd where we could either get lucky and find a gem who flew under the radar (Cooley) or we could end up with 2 more special teamers/backups.

As far as "falling in love" with top 10 guys, ask the coaches and NFL scouts. If everyone may be equal in the end why doesn't every single team try to trade down and draft a bunch of guys in the hope of finding a diamond in the rough? Why do teams trade up to get certain guys? Because they think that is where the talent is and they think they could get someone who is an impact player in a position where they need an impact player. Hindsight is easy. "Man that would have been great if we had picked up X player in the 3rd. He turned out to be a Pro Bowler and our top 10 guy is just mediocre". But sometimes you have to take a chance and go where you think the talent is. Is there any time you are ok with taking a top 10 pick? Is it only ok when you have all of the rest of your picks too? We don't have a minor problem on our D line. We have a HUGE problem. Our sack numbers and pass rush were an absolute joke last year. That is a situation where I'd rather gamble and bring in the guy who has the most talent and upside instead of trading way down to grab some later picks that we stupidly traded away before. Again, we have a full draft next year. Lets use that to get a bunch of depth.

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Even if we net other picks, 2nd, 3rd, are they really going to contribute from the start? We all know the answer is no. Look at Gibbs and Greg Williams history of playing rookies. Not good, they don't play. Plain and simple. Here we are with Rocky McIntosh, this year and does anybody even know if he'll be the starter week 1?

I hope Rocky is the answer at WLB but it's looking like Marshall will be the starter. I hope Rocky breaks through and I'm sure he will but it's a question of when?

What good are the extra picks if it's years down the line before they make an impact?

So yes, to answer the question I would rather gamble on Jamaal Anderson being the real deal then to trade down for multiple picks.

The last time we were picking a player with this kind of upside his name was Sean Taylor and I think everybody can agree that he is a stud, so yes, why not say no to Denver and keep the pick and roll the dice on Jamaal Anderson?

This whole post is a contridiction. We won't play Rookies, but instead you want to draft only one rookie instead of possibly 3.

We need a DE, yes. We also need a DT,OG,TE, and SS (Face it, fox is not the answer) The only way to acquire this is more picks, plain and simple.

We are trading down for sure, with Denver, maybe not. But we are for sure trading down and if you listen to Coach Gibbs you see that he is openly telling the media that he wants to trade down...

This thread title needs to be changed to...Springs/Anderson or Springs/Bly/Pick 21 and a second and third rounder? We would still have Springs to deal for even more picks or package him to then move up in the draft.

You have no clue if Anderson is the truth and we need more depth than just a DE, I am sorry. We need other players, I still think we need a DT more than a DE, last time I checked, you can still pressure the QB from the tackle position I think some people are oblivious to this because we haven't seen this in the Redskins in a while.

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with all the talk about the possible Broncos trade I wonder if our front office looks long term at all. If we make the deal that's on the table then by all accounts next year we win and get better value from Bly/Daniels but a year or two down the line, Daniels is out of football, Dre Bly is two years older and all of a sudden Jamaal Anderson might be the next best DE in football.

I just wish our front office thought about this. It seems like so many of us, as fans, know this and realize this but does anybody in our front office think about that.

At this point, do any of us really believe that if we add Dre Bly to the team we'll be a Super Bowl contender next year?

Come on, I hate to say it but Dre Bly is not putting us over the top next year so why not keep our pick and let's see if Jamaal Anderson can be the next Julius Peppers.

Just a random thought, but I would hope somebody in our front office realizes this before Denver rapes us.

This fact scares me too, but the fact is that with Branch, Okoye, Adams, Carriker,Moss, and Anderson you've got at least 6 top notch d-linemen! I say trade down for depth, it might hurt on draft day, but I don't think we loose!

We need at least 2 first day picks!

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This fact scares me too, but the fact is that with Branch, Okoye, Adams, Carriker,Moss, and Anderson you've got at least 6 top notch d-linemen! I say trade down for depth, it might hurt on draft day, but I don't think we loose!

We need at least 2 first day picks!

I'd say Anderson and Okoye have the biggest upside of any of those guys. Not sure I'd call Moss a top notch d-lineman. He was pretty good in college last year but the guy is a giant twizzler. He is 6'6 and 250 lbs. Unless he puts on at least 20 lbs he is going to get thrown around like a rag doll...unless he is ridiculously fast...which he isn't. He has "ok" timed speed. From what I read, the Skins weren't that impressed with Adams, but liked Anderson a lot from their interview with him. I think they're waiting to see him work out on his pro day.

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IMO, Bly is an "Afterthought" in this trade. the real good things about the trade are moving down only 15 spots in the 1st round, but picking up a serviceable cornerback, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder. if we did the deal without drey bly, denver would just have to give us an additonal 3rd rounder. so basically, we're chosing to trade down, and opting to have dre bly instead of a 3rd rounder.

it seems to me people focus too much on dre bly in all this. the people that like the trade are the ones who see the wisdom in trading down. the people that hate the trade are the people who are just ga-ga over having a high draft pick and have mindlessly listened to all the talk on espn about a couple defensive linemen and think they are all more valuable than they really are.

NONE of the defensive ends in the draft are even half of what mario williams was. did you see what happened with mario williams? he played very well, but he didnt change the face of the game. none of the defensive ends in the draft are going to change the game. trading down allows us to pick up more solid players. its the wise, intelligent decision. having a high draft pick is all glamour and no substance. that my opinion atleast.

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Well food for thought, just a list of great players selected in the 2nd round since the 2000 NFL Draft:

Darren Howard DE

Mike Brown SS

Ian Gold LB

Cornelius Griffin DT

Jerry Porter WR

Deon Grant FS

Marcus Washington LB

Dree Brees QB

Alge Crumpler TE

Chad Johnson WR

Ken Lucas CB

Kris Jenkins DT

Shaun Rogers DT

Travis Henry RB

Clinton Portis RB

Michael Lewis S

Ladell Betts RB

Deion Branch WR

Antwaan Randle El WR

Sheldon Brown CB

Eric Steinbach G

Charles Tillman CB

Eugene Wilson S

Rashean Mathis CB

Ken Hamlin S

Pisa Tinoisamoa LB

Kawika Mitchell LB

Osi Umenyiora DE

Mike Doss S

L.J. Smith TE

Bryan Scott S

Karlos Dansby LB

Igor Olshansky DT/DE

Tatum Bell RB

Julius Jones RB

Bob Sanders S

Jake Grove C/G

Tank Johnson DT

Devery Henderson WR

Madieu Williams S

Keary Colbert WR

Lofa Tatupu LB

Odell Thurman LB

Darrent Williams CB

DeMeco Ryans LB

Thomas Howard LB

Marcus McNeill OT

Devin Hester CB

Richard Marshall CB

Maurice Jones-Drew RB

Thats a pretty damn good list, and to me just shows how much skill and talent is still available by the beginning to end of the 2nd round.

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And heres a list of players selected in the 1st round from picks #20-32:

Keith Bullock LB

Todd Heap TE

Reggie Wayne WR

Deuce McAllister RB

Nate Clements CB

Javon Walker WR

Napolean Harris LB

Ed Reed SS

Charles Grant DE

Lito Sheppard CB

Willis McGahee RB

Dallas Clark TE

Nick Barnett LB

Larry Johnson RB

Nnamdi Asomugha CB

J.P. Losman QB

Marcus Tubbs DT

Steven Jackson RB

Chris Gamble CB

Kevin Jones RB

Benjamin Watson TE

Mark Clayton WR

Matt Jones WR

Jason Campbell QB

Luis Castillo DT

Marlin Jackson CB

Heath Miller TE

Laurence Maroney RB

Marcedes Lewis TE

Joseph Addai RB

DeAngelo Williams RB

Manny Lawson LB

So, even if some of the players I listed you don't think are too great, it shows theres a lot of talent past the top 19 picks. Its pretty easy to find the draft picks, just look it up on wikipedia or something and you can see all the 1st round selections.

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Well food for thought, just a list of great players selected in the 2nd round since the 2000 NFL Draft:

Thats a pretty damn good list, and to me just shows how much skill and talent is still available by the beginning to end of the 2nd round.

(Left out the names for the sake of brevity)

I have never said, nor will I ever say, that there aren't great players to be found in the 2nd round or even 3rd. Nor am I completely opposed to trading down. My main problem is trading down that far. I just don't think the talent would be there with our 1st round pick. IMO the ideal situation would be to have a guy fall to us who someone pretty close to us in the draft is drooling over. Then we can move down a few spots, pick up their 2nd perhaps, and still get one of the top DL prospects.

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Well then, heres the top 15 picks of the last 6 drafts (I decided not to include 2006 since you can't really call anyone bad or good yet, IMO):

2000

1 Cleveland Browns Courtney Brown Defensive End Penn State

2 Washington Redskins (from New Orleans) LaVar Arrington Linebacker Penn State

3 Washington Redskins (from San Fransisco) Chris Samuels Tackle Alabama

4 Cincinnati Bengals Peter Warrick Wide Receiver Florida State

5 Baltimore Ravens Jamal Lewis Running Back Tennessee

6 Philadelphia Eagles Corey Simon Defensive Tackle Florida State

7 Arizona Cardinals Thomas Jones Running Back Virginia

8 Pittsburgh Steelers Plaxico Burress Wide Receiver Michigan State

9 Chicago Bears Brian Urlacher Linebacker New Mexico

10 Baltimore Ravens Travis Taylor Wide Receiver Florida

11 New York Giants Ron Dayne Running Back Wisconsin

12 New York Jets (from New England) Shaun Ellis Defensive End Tennessee

13 New York Jets John Abraham Linebacker South Carolina

14 Green Bay Packers Bubba Franks Tight End Miami

15 Denver Broncos Deltha O'Neal Defensive Back California

2001

1 Atlanta Falcons (from San Diego) Michael Vick Quarterback Virginia Tech

2 Arizona Cardinals Leonard Davis Tackle Texas

3 Cleveland Browns Gerard Warren Defensive Tackle Florida

4 Cincinnati Bengals Justin Smith Defensive End Missouri

5 San Diego Chargers (from Atlanta) LaDainian Tomlinson Running Back Texas Christian

6 New England Patriots Richard Seymour Defensive Tackle Georgia

7 San Francisco 49ers (from Dallas through Seattle) Andre Carter Defensive End California

8 Chicago Bears David Terrell Wide Receiver Michigan

9 Seattle Seahawks (from San Francisco) Koren Robinson Wide Receiver North Carolina State

10 Green Bay Packers (from Seattle) Jamal Reynolds Defensive End Florida State

11 Carolina Panthers Dan Morgan Linebacker Miami (FL)

12 St. Louis Rams (from Kansas City) Damione Lewis Defensive Tackle Miami (FL)

13 Jacksonville Jaguars Marcus Stroud Defensive Tackle Georgia

14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Buffalo) Kenyatta Walker Tackle Florida

15 Washington Redskins Rod Gardner Wide Receiver Clemson

2002

1 Houston Texans David Carr Quarterback Fresno State

2 Carolina Panthers Julius Peppers Defensive End North Carolina

3 Detroit Lions Joey Harrington Quarterback Oregon

4 Buffalo Bills Mike Williams Tackle Texas

5 San Diego Chargers Quentin Jammer Cornerback Texas

6 Kansas City Chiefs (from Dallas) Ryan Sims Defensive Tackle North Carolina

7 Minnesota Vikings Bryant McKinnie Tackle Miami (FL)

8 Dallas Cowboys (from Kansas City) Roy Williams Free Safety Oklahoma

9 Jacksonville Jaguars John Henderson Defensive Tackle Tennessee

10 Cincinnati Bengals Levi Jones Tackle Arizona State

11 Indianapolis Colts Dwight Freeney Defensive End Syracuse

12 Arizona Cardinals Wendell Bryant Defensive Tackle Wisconsin

13 New Orleans Saints Donté Stallworth Wide Receiver Tennessee

14 New York Giants (from Tennessee) Jeremy Shockey Tight End Miami (FL)

15 Tennessee Titans (from N.Y. Giants) Albert Haynesworth Defensive Tackle Tennessee

2003

1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer Quarterback USC

2 Detroit Lions Charles Rogers Wide Receiver Michigan State

3 Houston Texans Andre Johnson Wide Receiver Miami (FL)

4 New York Jets (from Chicago) Dewayne Robertson Defensive Tackle Kentucky

5 Dallas Cowboys Terence Newman Cornerback Kansas State

6 New Orleans Saints (from Arizona) Johnathan Sullivan Defensive Tackle Georgia

7 Jacksonville Jaguars* Byron Leftwich Quarterback Marshall

8 Carolina Panthers* Jordan Gross Tackle Utah

9 Minnesota Vikings* Kevin Williams Defensive Tackle Oklahoma State

10 Baltimore Ravens Terrell Suggs Linebacker Arizona State

11 Seattle Seahawks Marcus Trufant Cornerback Washington State

12 St. Louis Rams Jimmy Kennedy Defensive Tackle Penn State

13 New England Patriots (from Washington through New York Jets and Chicago) Ty Warren Defensive End Texas A&M

14 Chicago Bears (from Buffalo through New England) Michael Haynes Defensive End Penn State

15 Philadelphia Eagles (from San Diego) Jerome McDougle Defensive End Miami (FL)

2004

1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning Quarterback Ole Miss

2 Oakland Raiders Robert Gallery Offensive tackle Iowa

3 Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald Wide receiver Pittsburgh

4 New York Giants Philip Rivers Quarterback NC State

5 Washington Redskins Sean Taylor Free safety Miami (FL)

6 Cleveland Browns (from Detroit) Kellen Winslow II Tight end Miami (FL)

7 Detroit Lions (from Cleveland) Roy Williams Wide receiver Texas

8 Atlanta Falcons DeAngelo Hall Cornerback Virginia Tech

9 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Williams Wide receiver Washington

10 Houston Texans Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina

11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)

12 New York Jets Jonathan Vilma Linebacker Miami (FL)

13 Buffalo Bills Lee Evans Wide receiver Wisconsin

14 Chicago Bears Tommie Harris Defensive tackle Oklahoma

15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Michael Clayton Wide receiver LSU

2005

1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith Quarterback Utah

2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown Running back Auburn

3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards Wide receiver Michigan

4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson Running back Texas

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carnell "Cadillac" Williams Running back Auburn

6 Tennessee Titans Adam "Pacman" Jones Cornerback West Virginia

7 Minnesota Vikings (from Oakland) Troy Williamson Wide receiver South Carolina

8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle Cornerback Miami (FL)

9 Washington Redskins Carlos Rogers Cornerback Auburn

10 Detroit Lions Mike Williams Wide receiver Southern California (USC)

11 Dallas Cowboys Demarcus Ware Linebacker Troy

12 San Diego Chargers (from New York Giants) Shawne Merriman Linebacker Maryland

13 New Orleans Saints (from Houston) Jammal Brown Offensive tackle Oklahoma

14 Carolina Panthers Thomas Davis Linebacker Georgia

15 Kansas City Chiefs Derrick Johnson Linebacker Texas

Now, I only bolded some of the people i personally believer are just average guys or busts, some you may not agree with and some you might bold that I didn't, but it just seems that many years its close to 50/50.

Out of 90 players, I bolded 28 guys, which is about 31% that were outright not worthy of top money. How many even made the pro bowl? I'm sure some people are willing to do the math.

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I was just using that to show how many players end up not turning out how people imagined. It would be just as useful to take extra picks in the last 1st and 2nd, then to just pick one guy in the top 15.

I listed about 50 players (I probably could have listed the decent starters, but I mainly listed guys i thought excelled or became pro bowlers or good to great starters) out of a possible 222 picks. Thats around 22% of all 2nd rounders that ended up at a near pro bowl caliber. Thats a pretty good number.

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You can bold Mike Vick, pacman jones, and a few others in my books.

Losers.

Well I would have added about another 10 guys who didn't do anything for their original teams (Thomas Jones, Plaxico etc.) and the jury is still out on a few of the younger guys from the 2006 draft.

I dunno about bolding Vick, but I think Pacman is gone cuz of his attitude. If he straightens out, he is a hell of a talent.

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Even if we net other picks, 2nd, 3rd, are they really going to contribute from the start? We all know the answer is no. Look at Gibbs and Greg Williams history of playing rookies. Not good, they don't play. Plain and simple. Here we are with Rocky McIntosh, this year and does anybody even know if he'll be the starter week 1?

I hope Rocky is the answer at WLB but it's looking like Marshall will be the starter. I hope Rocky breaks through and I'm sure he will but it's a question of when?

What good are the extra picks if it's years down the line before they make an impact?

So yes, to answer the question I would rather gamble on Jamaal Anderson being the real deal then to trade down for multiple picks.

The last time we were picking a player with this kind of upside his name was Sean Taylor and I think everybody can agree that he is a stud, so yes, why not say no to Denver and keep the pick and roll the dice on Jamaal Anderson?

Sean Taylor was much more of a can't-miss prospect than anderson. But you so make a salient point, We need help on defense, so this is probably where the acquired picks will go to. We basically used 2 2nd round picks to draft Rocky last year and he barely played over the worst outside linebacker in football. By the time these guys make an impact they could pull a Dockery and want a big deal, rendering their cheap labor years worthless. If the coaching staff thinks one of the big 4 (Okoye included) is a can't miss pro-bowl talent you take him. If not, trade down, build depth and give the rookies a chance to play early.

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