Poll: Are you worried that the rain/flooding is caused by Global Warming?

[AlexRS]

No. Warmer water gives more energy for hurricanes to form from which means MORE hurricanes. When the earth is cooler than usual, there is less hurricanes than normal because they feed off of warm water.

Warmer water - more hurricanes, sure.

How do you establish that "warmer water" happens ONLY as a result of natural cycles?

[wskin44]

Sooooo....

Global warming causes rain. Rain is good, and essential to life as we know it. Therefore, global warming is good.

Exactly. It's global cooling that is bad for us. The ice caps completely melt every 100,000 to 150,000 years or so. Coastal areas give up land to the oceans, Temperate zones get more tropical, etc. but humans will probably survive and possibly even thrive. But when it starts to get very cold, and ice covers North America, then we will know what bad is.

So when temperatures start to drop: Gentlemen, start your engines!

[cjcdaman]

1851-1860 8 5 5 1 0 6 19

1861-1870 8 6 1 0 0 1 15

1871-1880 7 6 7 0 0 7 20

1881-1890 8 9 4 1 0 5 22

1891-1900 8 5 5 3 0 8 21

1901-1910 10 4 4 0 0 4 18

1911-1920 10 4 4 3 0 7 21

1921-1930 5 3 3 2 0 5 13

1931-1940 4 7 6 1 1 8 19

1941-1950 8 6 9 1 0 10 24

1951-1960 8 1 5 3 0 8 17

1961-1970 3 5 4 1 1 6 14

1971-1980 6 2 4 0 0 4 12

1981-1990 9 1 4 1 0 5 15

1991-2000 3 6 4 0 1 5 14

What that is is a chart of landafalling U.S. hurricanes by decade. It shows all by category. The 6th line across is number of major Cat. 3, 4, or 5's and the 7th line across shows total of all for the decade.

Where's the evidence of global warming???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml?text

[Seabee1973]

If you look up how there is a numerous amount of hurricanes for a few decades and then a decrease in the amount of hurricanes for a few decades, you'll see how the earth is in one of those warming periods right now.

As for Katrina, and I'm going to get ripped for this probably, but Katrina is overhyped for what it did to New Orleans. Katrina was a weak Cat. 4 at best when it made landfall. Hurricane Camille made landfall in 1969 as a Cat. 5 so apparently global warming was a major problem back then??? Now I know that Katrina and Rita last year were ranked in the top 5 of strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf, but again we are in a warming period right now.

If they had startyed evacuating earlier there might have been less problems with people dying. waiting till sunday night to issue an evacuation order is kind of late when the rest of the gulf coast did it either friday or saturday.

[AlexRS]

1851-1860 8 5 5 1 0 6 19

1861-1870 8 6 1 0 0 1 15

1871-1880 7 6 7 0 0 7 20

1881-1890 8 9 4 1 0 5 22

1891-1900 8 5 5 3 0 8 21

1901-1910 10 4 4 0 0 4 18

1911-1920 10 4 4 3 0 7 21

1921-1930 5 3 3 2 0 5 13

1931-1940 4 7 6 1 1 8 19

1941-1950 8 6 9 1 0 10 24

1951-1960 8 1 5 3 0 8 17

1961-1970 3 5 4 1 1 6 14

1971-1980 6 2 4 0 0 4 12

1981-1990 9 1 4 1 0 5 15

1991-2000 3 6 4 0 1 5 14

What that is is a chart of landafalling U.S. hurricanes by decade. It shows all by category. The 6th line across is number of major Cat. 3, 4, or 5's and the 7th line across shows total of all for the decade.

Where's the evidence of global warming???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml?text

Here is a good place (with references) to start research: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

I exclude the possibility that global warming is the cause for more hurricanes.

So your position is now that we are not experiencing more hurricanes?

That's fine. Let's talk about temperature then.

The Earth is getting warmer.. yes? Do you exclude the possibility of humans having a major effect on Global Warming? If so, how?

[Seabee1973]

1851-1860 8 5 5 1 0 6 19

1861-1870 8 6 1 0 0 1 15

1871-1880 7 6 7 0 0 7 20

1881-1890 8 9 4 1 0 5 22

1891-1900 8 5 5 3 0 8 21

1901-1910 10 4 4 0 0 4 18

1911-1920 10 4 4 3 0 7 21

1921-1930 5 3 3 2 0 5 13

1931-1940 4 7 6 1 1 8 19

1941-1950 8 6 9 1 0 10 24

1951-1960 8 1 5 3 0 8 17

1961-1970 3 5 4 1 1 6 14

1971-1980 6 2 4 0 0 4 12

1981-1990 9 1 4 1 0 5 15

1991-2000 3 6 4 0 1 5 14

What that is is a chart of landafalling U.S. hurricanes by decade. It shows all by category. The 6th line across is number of major Cat. 3, 4, or 5's and the 7th line across shows total of all for the decade.

Where's the evidence of global warming???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml?text

There must have been some treal global warming in teh 40's

[cjcdaman]

If they had startyed evacuating earlier there might have been less problems with people dying. waiting till sunday night to issue an evacuation order is kind of late when the rest of the gulf coast did it either friday or saturday.

I agree, but there's more. If Katrina had hit Florida which IS NOT built in a bowl . . . this would have been a big hurricane but nothing spectacular. It is overhyped because New Orleans got flooded. Period.

[cjcdaman]

So your position is now that we are not experiencing more hurricanes?

The Earth is getting warmer.. yes? Do you exclude the possibility of humans having a major effect on Global Warming? If so, how?

To the first part, yes we are experiencing more hurricnaes. But it's not from global warming!!!!!!!!!! The earth goes through warming and cooling stages! I am done explaining that to you.

To the second part, humans have an effect on global warming, but hurricanes and the floods in the northeast are not caused by humans. Period. Here's how much effect I feel humans have had on the earth's temperature. . . If we were not here, instead of it being 88 degrees today, it would have been 87.999999999999 degrees.

[ChocolateCitySkin]

Not to knock your "evidence," but a chart on one specific geographic location isn't really telling of a larger global picture.

Its amazing how people admit that humans have an impact on global warming yet feel no moral obligation to change their behavior.

I guess the analogy to a frog in boiling water holds true. Put the frog in the water when its hot and it will jump out. Raise the water temperature to a boil slowly around the frog and it won't jump out.

[The 12th Commandment]

Exactly. It's global cooling that is bad for us. The ice caps completely melt every 100,000 to 150,000 years or so. Coastal areas give up land to the oceans, Temperate zones get more tropical, etc. but humans will probably survive and possibly even thrive. But when it starts to get very cold, and ice covers North America, then we will know what bad is.

So when temperatures start to drop: Gentlemen, start your engines!

That is the fact Jack. Every ice age has started with a period of intense and rapid warming. All the melted fresh water is what eventually stops the gulf stream (and other similar conveyor type currents). These are the mechanisms that take warmth from the equitorial areas and redistributes it to the temperate zones. When they are stopped it gets real cold real quick. We are talking within a human lifespan seeing the beginnings of the ice age from the initial warm up. And the ice age isn't a johnny come lately. They last a looooong time. All that stuff I bought for Y2K is gonna come in handy after all!

[AlexRS]

To the first part, yes we are experiencing more hurricnaes. But it's not from global warming!!!!!!!!!! The earth goes through warming and cooling stages! I am done explaining that to you.

There was never a problem with me not understanding what you're saying... I was merely questioning your reasoning.

Clearly that reasoning is: "it's not from global warming because earth goes through warming and cooling stages." Thank you for clarification.

To the second part, humans have an effect on global warming, but hurricanes and the floods in the northeast are not caused by humans. Period. Here's how much effect I feel humans have had on the earth's temperature. . . If we were not here, instead of it being 88 degrees today, it would have been 87.999999999999 degrees.

I thought we were talking about GLOBAL Warming... I have no further questions if the scope of your point is limited to "hurricanes and the floods in the northeast," and the scope of your reasoning is "I feel."

Indeed there is a possibility hurricanes and floods in the northeast have not been effected by Global Warming... I'll readily agree that such possibility exists.

[ChocolateCitySkin]

That is the fact Jack. Every ice age has started with a period of intense and rapid warming. All the melted fresh water is what eventually stops the gulf stream (and other similar conveyor type currents). These are the mechanisms that take warmth from the equitorial areas and redistributes it to the temperate zones. When they are stopped it gets real cold real quick. We are talking within a human lifespan seeing the beginnings of the ice age from the initial warm up. And the ice age isn't a johnny come lately. They last a looooong time. All that stuff I bought for Y2K is gonna come in handy after all!

Right, I think the major concern is that mans impact is bumping the trends. There is a swing but the unusually amounts of co2(more than the 650k years) -- under the correlation of co2 and global temperature is creating a different trend. We're seeing glaciers melting that haven't melted in the past ten ice ages. Moreover, as these glaciers melt they create more surface area for energy absorption. This further exacerabates the global temperature situation.

The problem with this scenario is that it doesn't follow the traditional warming and cooling trends.

[The 12th Commandment]

Right, I think the major concern is that mans impact is bumping the trends. There is a swing but the unusually amounts of co2(more than the 650k years) -- under the correlation of co2 and global temperature is creating a different trend. We're seeing glaciers melting that haven't melted in the past ten ice ages. Moreover, as these glaciers melt they create more surface area for energy absorption. This further exacerabates the global temperature situation.

The problem with this scenario is that it doesn't follow the traditional warming and cooling trends.

I'm gonna assume that was just not expressed very clearly. Glaciers don't melt in ice ages. And sure I understand that the increased level of co2 is probably contributing to this warm up. But I still question to what extent and I haven't seen any hard evidence attributing a percentage of the warm up to co2. Just that we are contributing to it. Fact is, we are due for an ice age regardless. And they always start with a warm. I think the position we are in with regards to our orbit around the sun has much more to do with. Why else are we seeing this happen at a period of time where it would be expected to happen based on climate history.

[ChocolateCitySkin]

I'm gonna assume that was just not expressed very clearly. Glaciers don't melt in ice ages. And sure I understand that the increased level of co2 is probably contributing to this warm up. But I still question to what extent and I haven't seen any hard evidence attributing a percentage of the warm up to co2. Just that we are contributing to it. Fact is, we are due for an ice age regardless. And they always start with a warm. I think the position we are in with regards to our orbit around the sun has much more to do with. Why else are we seeing this happen at a period of time where it would be expected to happen based on climate history.

Yeah, I didn't make that clear -- I am suggesting though that these glaciers are melting... Glacier national park will be gone...

http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/articles/glacier.asp

etc

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4346211.stm

And this increases surface area for warming... Anyways, I think this kind of speaks for itself.

[jbooma]

Are you suggesting this means human activities have no effect on floods?

http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2669132&postcount=26

Can you be more specific instead of answering everything with a question or an old post :doh:

[The 12th Commandment]

Yeah, I didn't make that clear -- I am suggesting though that these glaciers are melting... Glacier national park will be gone...

http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/articles/glacier.asp

etc

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4346211.stm

And this increases surface area for warming... Anyways, I think this kind of speaks for itself.

No question it does increase the rate of warming when more earth is exposed. It called the "net" albido of the planet. Albido is the amount of solar energy that is reflected back to space due to the inability of snow or ice to absorb it. Obviously, earth absorbs it much better. But ever single warm up and ice age throughout the life of the earth has included these same processes. So how much of this change that is a natural thing in other time periods is caused by us this time?

10k year interglacial periods followed by 100k year ice ages are the rule. We are over 10k years into our current interglacial. Why are we surprised that the climate is changing now? And why don't more people snap to the fact that it's the cold that is going to be the real problem. Not the heat.

[jbooma]

That is the fact Jack. Every ice age has started with a period of intense and rapid warming. All the melted fresh water is what eventually stops the gulf stream (and other similar conveyor type currents). These are the mechanisms that take warmth from the equitorial areas and redistributes it to the temperate zones. When they are stopped it gets real cold real quick. We are talking within a human lifespan seeing the beginnings of the ice age from the initial warm up. And the ice age isn't a johnny come lately. They last a looooong time. All that stuff I bought for Y2K is gonna come in handy after all!

:laugh: :laugh:

You are right though, there was a warming period of about 500 years before the little ice age in 1300 to 1700 something.

They have even mentioned that the artic was once simlar to west palm beach, the earth is changing, it is just happening we are around to experience it this time. Next thing if the countries move people will blame global warming as well

[ChocolateCitySkin]

No question it does increase the rate of warming when more earth is exposed. It called the "net" albido of the planet. Albido is the amount of solar energy that is reflected back to space due to the inability of snow or ice to absorb it. Obviously, earth absorbs it much better. But ever single warm up and ice age throughout the life of the earth has included these same processes. So how much of this change that is a natural thing in other time periods is caused by us this time?

10k year interglacial periods followed by 100k year ice ages are the rule. We are over 10k years into our current interglacial. Why are we surprised that the climate is changing now? And why don't more people snap to the fact that it's the cold that is going to be the real problem. Not the heat.

If we follow the existing models than you can't disagree that if human impact increases global temperatures than the cold swing will also increase-- Except in the opposite direction. Which still boils down to people having a moral obligation to reign in their behavior.

Moreover, my problem still remains ice that has outlasted many of ice ages disappearing under current circumstances. I would consider this unusual and a testament to human influence.

[twa]

A question to those convinced of significant human impact on warming::

What do you suggest?

From studies I have read spending billions and major lifestyle changes would only delay any change by a few years.

Perhaps listening to the promises of the coming ice age and subsidence theories over the decades has made me doubt the FAD Science that contines to spring up.

I personaly am going with the polar shift or massive solar flare to end life as we know it.

[AlexRS]

Can you be more specific instead of answering everything with a question or an old post :doh:

Sure.

It seems one cannot logically derive "recent human activities have no effect on floods" from statement "Floods have been happening since the beginning of time, there is nothing new about that." Do you agree?

[jbooma]

The problem with this scenario is that it doesn't follow the traditional warming and cooling trends.

What many forget is what is happening around is in space?? Is the sun giving off more energy then before, do those huge sun storms, solar flares etc.. been impacting the earth more then we think.

Currently the earth is in a solor wind stream, what impact does this have. Are we getting closer and closer to the sun etc....

We all know the average temperture is rising, but are we taking in consideration of what is happening in space around us, and what type of an impact is this.

The first sign is to blame humans, do we have the ability to change the planet, who knows.

[jbooma]

If we follow the existing models than you can't disagree that if human impact increases global temperatures than the cold swing will also increase-- Except in the opposite direction. Which still boils down to people having a moral obligation to reign in their behavior.

Moreover, my problem still remains ice that has outlasted many of ice ages disappearing under current circumstances. I would consider this unusual and a testament to human influence.

ah, that is it the models

The problem is are these models even accurate?? There are many old school scientests that believe that that those models are off. What do we have now to compare them and their reliability in the past, nothing.

Technology is great, but is it accurate, hard to tell when you have nothing to compare it too.

[The 12th Commandment]

If we follow the existing models than you can't disagree that if human impact increases global temperatures than the cold swing will also increase-- Except in the opposite direction. Which still boils down to people having a moral obligation to reign in their behavior.

Moreover, my problem still remains ice that has outlasted many of ice ages disappearing under current circumstances. I would consider this unusual and a testament to human influence.

I think its come up before, but there are a bunch of valid, provable and important reasons to reign in our behavior. That is beyond question.

I'm gonna read a little more about specific glaciers and when they have been created before I get back to you on the other. You might have a point there.

And I don't think heating or cooling is going to be the end of we are far too adaptable for that. More likely, twa has it nailed.

[jbooma]

Sure.

It seems one cannot logically derive "recent human activities have no effect on floods" from statement "Floods have been happening since the beginning of time, there is nothing new about that." Do you agree?

Yes there is nothing new about floods, it is quite simple when an area is saturated with water and can not hold anymore then the water will go find the lowest area, when all the streams and arteries are overloaded and then empy into the rivers, the water can not be held by the natural banks and thus the river floods.

One of the major impacts that Humans have had is they tend to forget that rivers and steams need a natural flood area, and when we take out the trees and plants that are in those areas and build homes, it makes it look worse then it should.

[AlexRS]

A question to those convinced of significant human impact on warming::

What do you suggest?

I'd start with free/discounted metro and 10 parking spaces that can recharge electric vehicles per metro station (starting in Rockville and Shady Grove)

From studies I have read spending billions and major lifestyle changes would only delay any change by a few years.

Do you have links? Things I read in that regard said global climate is a slow thing to change and the damage is already done, i.e. even if we completely stop emitting CO2 today it will take 10+ years of things getting worse before they slowly start getting better. And with the rate at which we're going, we may be in a world of s**t if we find out GW is true in 5 years. In other words, i am really really hoping this human-caused Global Warming thing will not be as bad as they say. Hopefully there is no good reason all civilized countries except USA agreed to do the Kyoto thing.